Dear Falvey, You Can't Trade Away Joe Ryan

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

With the trade deadline approaching and the Twins still stuck under .500, it’s no surprise that teams are calling to ask about players. What is surprising is who they’re asking about, and who the Twins might actually be listening on. According to MLB Network and reporter Jon Morosi, multiple teams are monitoring Joe Ryan, including the Boston Red Sox, as a potential deadline trade target. Let’s stop right here. That should not even be a conversation. Trading Joe Ryan would be, without exaggeration, a franchise-level mistake.

Ryan has been brilliant this season, earning a deserved spot in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game and leading the team’s rotation with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, the third-best mark in all of baseball. With Pablo López sidelined and the rest of the rotation in chaos, Ryan hasn’t just held steady, he’s taken on the role of staff ace and delivered the best stretch of his young career exactly when the team needed it most. In the midst of a disappointing season and amid growing uncertainty about the team’s direction, Joe Ryan has been one of the few things the Twins can truly feel good about.

Not only is he thriving now, but he’s also cost-controlled and under team control through 2027. This is just his first arbitration year. He’ll likely earn somewhere around $8 million next year, then around $15 million in 2027. That’s affordable for a mid-rotation starter, let alone a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm trending upward. His age, contract, performance, and personality all make him one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball, and while that may sound like the perfect formula for a trade chip, it’s actually the reason you don’t move him. These are the exact types of players you build around, not flip for future maybes.

And that’s the real issue here. If you deal Joe Ryan, what exactly are you trying to get in return? Prospects? A few Top 100 guys? Maybe one pitcher and two hitters, or vice versa? Let’s say you hit on one of them. Great, you got one impact player. The other two flame out, because that’s how this works. You end up spending years hoping to replace the guy you already had. Why not just keep the guy who’s already proven he can pitch like a frontline starter, thrives in your system, and actually seems to enjoy playing in Minnesota?

This is the exact type of pitcher the Twins have spent the better part of two decades trying to develop. Since Johan Santana in 2005, the only two starting pitchers the Twins have turned into All-Stars from within are José Berríos and Joe Ryan. That’s it. And while Berríos had his moments, Ryan is trending toward something even more special. His buy-in to analytics, his work ethic, his constant evolution as a pitcher, all of it points to a guy who still hasn’t hit his ceiling. You don’t sell on that. You double down on it.

And don’t give me the “we can’t afford him later” excuse. Nobody knows what the payroll outlook is going to look like in a year or two because the team is in the middle of a sale. It’s already awkward for the front office to be making any big-picture decisions when ownership is in flux and the regime itself could be out the door depending on who buys the team. Trading a foundational piece of the roster because of vague future financial concerns is not just short-sighted, it’s irresponsible. Maybe the next owner is willing to spend. Maybe they’re eager to keep guys like Ryan and López and actually build something lasting. Why take that decision out of their hands before they even get here?

We’ve seen how this plays out before. The Berríos trade was praised at the time. The Twins got two highly regarded prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. But so far, neither one has come close to making the impact Berríos once had, and he wasn’t even at Ryan’s level. Go back further to the Johan Santana trade. The Twins traded away a true ace and got back a handful of top-10 Mets prospects, including Carlos Gómez. Gómez turned into a fine big leaguer, just not with the Twins. And the rest of the return flamed out. Once again, the dream of what those prospects could be never came close to matching what the Twins gave up. That’s almost always the case. Prospects are enticing because they represent possibility. But they rarely fulfill it.

So yes, Joe Ryan would bring back a haul. But there’s a reason for that, because every team in baseball wants a Joe Ryan. The question isn’t whether the Twins could trade him. It’s why on earth they would. You can still retool. You can still sell off rentals or arms in the bullpen. You can still plan for the future without throwing away the present. Because that’s what Joe Ryan gives you, a present and a future. A guy you trust to take the ball every five days. A guy who gives you a chance to win. A guy you can build around.

The Twins already lived through one decade of darkness after they tore down their core. Trading away the one legitimate ace they’ve developed in the last 20 years would be the first step toward repeating that exact same mistake. This team may not be good right now, but moving Joe Ryan would be waving the white flag not just on this year, but on the years ahead, too.

Want to see Joe Ryan stay in Minnesota? Think the Twins should cash in on a trade? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[terrydactyls]

The Twins would criminally negligent if they did not listen to offers for Joe Ryan.  There might be a front office that offers three or four controllable young players who are already in MLB or ripping up AAA.  They  Twins don't have to agree to any proposal that is made, but they should listen.

[The Mad King]

Stats aside, Joe Ryan is just plain fun to watch. I'm with you. Don't even think about it.

[D.C Twins]

Dear Matthew,

He will not. 

[1985Fan]

This post raises some interesting questions. First, if as you say, Ryan is irreplaceable, then does that mean the vaunted Falvey pitching pipeline is a myth? If you value Ryan as a middle rotation starter, a true pitching pipeline should have a viable replacement ready to go. Cleveland and Tampa Bay as examples. 
Second, the way that today’s pitching is managed (especially this FO and manager), is starting pitching all that valuable? Seems like all that is expected from the starter is two times through the opposing batting order then turn it over to 4-5 BP arms to close it out (hopefully). I think that devalues SP and makes lockdown BP arms more vital. TB starter Littell is an example of TB taking a guy with ok stuff and putting him into a SP role to get value, while counting on other arms in the BP. 

These questions make it difficult to make Ryan a building block for the future. I’m old school and would like to see starters go 6-7 innings, pitch count be damned. I also am not buying the Falvey pitching pipeline yet. I like SWR, Festa, and Matthews. If FO likes those guys as well, then arms to replace Ryan are already in place.
I don’t think there is an urgent need to trade Ryan this season. As you stated, wait until the offseason when new owners, and possibly new management are in place to make a trade as important as this. 

[old nurse]

The only reason to trade him is that he wants to be elsewhere and will not negotiate for an extension. Then they would be wise to sell high. If next year he is having a down year his value goes way down Thing is that nobody knows anything about the situation. Fan sites write clickbait about trading for Ryan and people take it like it is something that is going to happen. 

[LambchoP]

We need Ryan if we plan to be competitive next year....

[jorgenswest]

It is much easier to trade Ryan than acquire Ryan. I would keep him and his control and let the new ownership decide if they want to pay him.

Also isn’t the pipeline a creation of bloggers and writers? Some seem to think it was a promise of Falvey. Every team will have trouble filling out a starting rotation throughout the season. Arguably the Twins started 7 deep. How many teams did better?

[LewFordLives]

Good article with only one nitpick.....not everyone agreed with the Berrios trade at the time. It was stupid then, and looks worse by the day.

[LewFordLives]

And the Twins didn't develop Ryan. They stole him from the Rays. I bring this up because it speaks to the number one problem with this organization....they cannot develop good pitching. Berrios was the last. Maybe Ober will be the next success.

[Dman]

I don't think the Twins are going to trade Ryan at this years deadline.  The FO hasn't even mentioned they are trying to trade him or anyone for that matter.  

Next year if the Twins are out of it at the deadline the calculus might change.  Then they would effectively have just one more year of control of Ryan (2027) and if they kept let him walk after 2027 all they would get is likely a first round comp pick assuming he stays healthy until then.  Or at next years deadline maybe someone offers two top 100 prospects.  Guys that have already proven themselves to some degree versus a draft pick that hasn't played pro ball. 

Just like Berrios where it appeared they were not going to extend him and got two top 100 guys I would think the Twins would do the same thing.  I get that trade didn't work out as well as hoped, but it likely worked better than getting just one draft pick from a later round.

If the Twins are good and competing for the division next year or wild card then he is too important to trade.  I would just keep him to the end and take the draft pick comp.  Top of the rotation arms are so important to playoff success you can't trade them willy nilly.  You need them for the post season.  I think they'll end up holding onto him until the end, but we will see.

[thelanges5]

Trading Joe Ryan would be waving the white flag for this season and likely the next two or more as well. This front office can trade the expiring contracts, but should not be trusted to trade more aggressively. New ownership (hopefully) and the front office they choose should be left with these types of decisions for the future.

[thelanges5]

38 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

And the Twins didn't develop Ryan. They stole him from the Rays. I bring this up because it speaks to the number one problem with this organization....they cannot develop good pitching. Berrios was the last. Maybe Ober will be the next success.

The Twins and Joe Ryan have worked on his development. He’s not the same guy we got from the Rays. Don’t just take my word for it. 
 

https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/joe-ryan-might-become-a-complete-pitcher-in-2024/

[FLYBOY1979]

Ok so the Twins could end up with new owners in the next few months.  If you work in the Twins front office you don’t want to devalue what you are selling? Do the possible new owners have any say in what goes on here?

[tony&rodney]

The discussion of Joe Ryan and interest in him from other teams is being repeated in various posts for a good reason. At this time Ryan has strong value and other teams have needs.

The idea that Ryan is untouchable has been advanced by some, but I'm sure we can remember the Arraez-Lopez trade where similar comments were written. I'm in the camp that will suggest that no player is untouchable. One must consider the return. It is virtually impossible to guess whether another team feels that Joe Ryan is the answer to making their team competitive and will deliver a player or more worthy of an exchange for the Twins. Make your own guesses or demands.

Some folks have maintained that the current front office is incapable of completing a good transaction or of evaluating offers in a successful fashion. This is a different issue, but it is also almost impossible to judge based on the past history. I would suggest that the front office has been very reluctant to make change and have also been stuck on slow heavy hitting types. That isn't actually true either. This argument is complex.

Looking over the Twins roster, only one position player has provided consistent production - Byron Buxton. The roster needs better production from some bats, gloves, and legs. The current collection does not possess all of those talents. This means calling up players, shifting around some duties, or completing trades and acquiring upgrades to the position side of the roster. Usually this is best done in the offseason. Best practices demands listening and actively seeking out interest and offers. It is easy to say no to weak or neutral moves. If Baltimore wants to discuss Ryan, start with Basallo. The Athletics are not going to contend this year and they won't be any good in the future without pitching. Nick Kurtz hits and plays good defense. He is also almost certainly untouchable.

There is no such thing as too much pitching. Still, the Twins, potentially, have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Festa, Matthews, and Woods Richardson with Morris and Raya not far behind them. Of course, injuries among pitchers pile up quickly but at this time the Twins are in a far better position with their pitchers than they are with their position players.

The Twins need to actively find out where and how they can improve the team. Waiting has been the strategy for too long.

 

[Western SD Fan]

57 minutes ago, FLYBOY1979 said:

Ok so the Twins could end up with new owners in the next few months.  If you work in the Twins front office you don’t want to devalue what you are selling? Do the possible new owners have any say in what goes on here?

I would surmise that if talks were in the final stages that the new owners would have some input.  With that being said, I do not believe that negotiations are that close.  I also would imagine that if the Pohlads want what they are asking in a potential sale, they would protect the value of the team as much as they could, which would likely not trading Joe Ryan at the deadline.  

I do agree that no one should be viewed as "untouchable", but Joe Ryan should be as close to that as possible.  I have one crazy idea that likely wouldn't be available but would be interesting if it could be swung.  The FO sees if there is any team that Correa is willing to break his no-trade clause for and match with Ryan accordingly.  Someone with access to Baseball Trade Values would have to do the work to see if this is even possible.  I may be willing to part with a potential pitcher such as Ryan if I can gain the flexibility of being released by the Correa albatross of a contract.  I'll use that money to bolster my roster in the offseason and I'm likely better off in the long run.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that the better message is "BE VERY, VERY CAREFUL" if you are going to trade Joe Ryan.  As many others have pointed out, with possible apologies to Pablo Lopez and Jose Berrios, who have had a longer track record, Ryan is probably the best starter that the Twins have had since Johan Santana.  Therefore, trading him should be approached with great caution.  It's not that there are no trades out there that would make sense for the Twins, it's that it is extremely unlikely that those trades would ultimately replace his value -- and at best, that would be down the road, not next year.  The Santana trade was a travesty in that we got three washouts and one guy who was OK but didn't get good until he left the team.  The jury is still out on the Berrios trade, but the complaining about that one just proves that the expectations will (and should) be sky-high from the fans if Ryan is traded.

So. . . yes.  The Twins should always listen, but don't be blown away by the three prospects offered as though they were going to turn into Aaron Judge, Tarik Skubel, and Ichiro Suzuki.  Prospects have a tremendously spotty record of turning into anything.  The best that could likely be hoped for would be one out of three turning into something of note, and then likely not as a good as the guy we traded away.  Remember, nothing says you have to trade him, so don't be afraid to turn down a potential deal.   

[Blyleven2011]

Everyone likes Ryan  , nobody wants to trade him , probably even the twins FO doesn't want to trade him but with his value high and a demand for him , they have to listen , gauge what he's worth with 2 1/2 years left plus qualifying offer or draft compensation , he won't be worth as much at next year's deadline if we are out of it because the team trading for him would only have him under control for 1 1/2 years  plus the qualifying offer if accepts or draft compensation if he turns it down ...

We have had decent starting pitching for a few years now , it's a strength  , you trade from strength to acquire players to fill a weakness ...

If it can help us this year and next year and beyond  you have to consider trading Ryan  ...

I don't think it will happen  , but there's probably a 20 percent chance it could ..

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

I would surmise that if talks were in the final stages that the new owners would have some input.  With that being said, I do not believe that negotiations are that close.  I also would imagine that if the Pohlads want what they are asking in a potential sale, they would protect the value of the team as much as they could, which would likely not trading Joe Ryan at the deadline.  

I do agree that no one should be viewed as "untouchable", but Joe Ryan should be as close to that as possible.  I have one crazy idea that likely wouldn't be available but would be interesting if it could be swung.  The FO sees if there is any team that Correa is willing to break his no-trade clause for and match with Ryan accordingly.  Someone with access to Baseball Trade Values would have to do the work to see if this is even possible.  I may be willing to part with a potential pitcher such as Ryan if I can gain the flexibility of being released by the Correa albatross of a contract.  I'll use that money to bolster my roster in the offseason and I'm likely better off in the long run.

You believe that Correa is done and his ceiling is now the production seen thus far in 2025. Maybe. However, assuming a team takes Correa with Ryan the Twins get a negligible return and now play without a shortstop. Difficult decisions, for sure, which is why the front office gets the big bucks. 

Everyone will see your idea differently but I don't see Correa's contract as an albatross, nor do I believe the money saved by dealing Carlos would be reinvested in good players. The Twins have better options.

[jorgenswest]

Are there parallels of a potential Ryan deal and the Berrios deal? I think the Berrios deal worked out in the Twins favor but a Ryan deal would require more in return.

[Western SD Fan]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You believe that Correa is done and his ceiling is now the production seen thus far in 2025. Maybe. However, assuming a team takes Correa with Ryan the Twins get a negligible return and now play without a shortstop. Difficult decisions, for sure, which is why the front office gets the big bucks. 

Everyone will see your idea differently but I don't see Correa's contract as an albatross, nor do I believe the money saved by dealing Carlos would be reinvested in good players. The Twins have better options.

You're right that we would need a shortstop.  If you're trading Joe Ryan, I'm also guessing you're trading everyone under the sun not nailed down for the next one to two years and preparing for a 70-80 win season the next two years rather than retooling.  If that's the case, I'll bring up Will Holland or Eeles and see what I have while have Lee covering SS in the interim.

You're also right that Correa's contract may not be the albatross that I'm making it out to be.  Quite a few people called Mauer's contract an albatross, and I believe it was proven in the long run that Mauer definitely earned his contract.  I do have a real concern that Correa will never be healthy enough to be the player we signed up for.  Through half of the year, Correa is -0.2 WAR per baseball-reference.  I still think this entire discussion needs to take place in the offseason and not before the deadline.

[sun]

Just nix any thoughts of trading Joe. Nothing is worse for a player's psyche then to hear about trade talk concerning himself. He's capable of pitching a no-no someday if given a chance. I'd rather see that he remains a Twin-4-ever. This is all crazy talk because like CC, Ryan sells tickets & keeps hope alive.

[Doctor Gast]

W/o Lopez, Ober & Matthews combined with nobody in AAA, our rotation is very thin. Ryan is our only anchor, how can we think about trading him? Ryan is very involved in the offseason to get outside input, he'll continue to grow, IMO, it's not a good time to sell if ever. We should be looking at adding not subtracting. IMO, we should have picked up Kyle Gibson. Shortly after he became a FA. That'd shored up the rotation.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

W/o Lopez, Ober & Matthews combined with nobody in AAA, our rotation is very thin. Ryan is our only anchor, how can we think about trading him? Ryan is very involved in the offseason to get outside input, he'll continue to grow, IMO, it's not a good time to sell if ever. We should be looking at adding not subtracting. IMO, we should have picked up Kyle Gibson. Shortly after he became a FA. That'd shored up the rotation.

Matthews is back after the break. Ryan, Festa, Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Paddack with Ober and Lopez back soon is a pretty solid group. Raya and Morris will be ready to contribute next year as needed. Whatever means or ways that can be found, the Twins need to upgrade their position player spots. Listen to those who call and call those teams who you think may be interested in discussing players with across baseball. I don't think keeping everything the same will work.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not in favor of trading him, but Milwaukee dealt Burnes, and didn't start over. This idea they cannot possibly compete w/o Ryan seems odd to me. 

If Philly wants to send their top 3 prospects....I'm at least thinking about it, if not saying yes.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Good article with only one nitpick.....not everyone agreed with the Berrios trade at the time. It was stupid then, and looks worse by the day.

So, it would have been better to have a late round first pick  instead of SWR. 

[LewFordLives]

 

7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So, it would have been better to have a late round first pick  instead of SWR. 

Plus another year of Berrios. Yes, I would.

The reason they gave us for trading him is that he wouldn't sign an extension. What did he do after he got to Toronto....he signed an extension. 

[TopGunn#22]

Nobody on this team is untouchable.  Based on the season he's having, Byron Buxton is probably the only one who would qualify, and much of that is his incredibly team friendly contract.

I'm not advocating the Twins trade Ryan.  I like him, and he's pitching well this year.  He might just finish this season with more IP and more K's, wins and an ERA better than he ever has.  Still, his season high IP is only about 160.

It really comes down to what you could get in return.  If you're trading for prospects that are 2-4 years away, that's a tough pill to swallow.  But if the Red Sox are willing to trade an All Star outfielder like Jarren Duran (and a little something more) then I'm willing to talk.

The Red Sox have a LOT of good young outfielders right now and there is no way they can play them all.  Especially with Yoshida set to "occupy" the DH spot.  Duran is just the type of player the Twins desperately need.  Bader has been a revelation in LF and CF, but he's going to be traded.  Duran would step right in batting leadoff and playing LF and would be the insurance for Buxton in CF if he got hurt.  

Are the Pohlad's willing to sign Ryan to a 5 year extension?  Would the new owners green light that?  If there is ANY hesitation, and you can trade a SP who pitches 160 innings for an All Star OF like Jarren Duran as the key piece coming back...you have to heavily consider it.  Duran is only available because the Red Sox have Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela, all under the age of 24 and are DYING for a SP.  

Ryan's value has never been higher.  In 2026 the Twins would still have Lopez, Ober, Festa, Matthews, SWR, and maybe Raya.  Maybe you sign a Kyle Gibson type (or the real McCoy...Gibson) to eat innings for you at a known level of mediocrity.  But you've got Jarren Duran leading off and playing a solid LF.

I'm not trying to trade Joe Ryan.  But I'd like to know how serious some of the contending teams are for a SP with immense value.  I'm not trying to trade Jhoan Duran either.  But if the Dodgers would send us Dalton Rushing and a little more and I've still got Jax, Varland and Sands?  I'd listen to that as well.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

 

Plus another year of Berrios. Yes, I would.

The reason they gave us for trading him is that he wouldn't sign an extension. What did he do after he got to Toronto....he signed an extension. 

Yes.  For a different team and more money than the Twins were likely willing to offer.  That ship sailed long ago.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

24 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

But if the Red Sox are willing to trade an All Star outfielder like Jarren Duran (and a little something more) then I'm willing to talk.

Jarren Duran is a nice player.  He was excellent last year.  This year he is profiling more toward pretty good. I don't really have a problem with him, per se, but in order to trade a good starting pitcher like Ryan, I need much more than an outfielder. Also, in theory at least, two of our top prospects in ERod and Jenkins are outfielders, so I'm not sure I see the need.   

Now, if they could still lay their hands on a young quality catcher, I might at least pick up the phone. . . That's an area of major need on this team -- but I still probably don't trade Ryan.