Are the Umpires Against the Minnesota Twins? Ump Scorecards Suggest So

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images

For much of the 2025 season, the Minnesota Twins have fought through injuries, offensive slumps, and bullpen inconsistencies. But one factor flying under the radar has quietly worked against them all season long: the men in blue behind home plate.

According to data from Ump Scorecards, an independent platform that tracks and analyzes umpire performance using machine learning and stat-driven algorithms, the Twins have been on the wrong end of umpiring decisions more than any other team in baseball. In fact, no team in MLB has lost more estimated runs to umpire calls this season than Minnesota.

The numbers are staggering. Through the first two-plus months of the season, umpires have cost the Twins an estimated 12.4 runs, the worst figure of any MLB club. The next-closest teams aren’t even in the same ballpark, including the Colorado Rockies (-8.2 runs), Miami Marlins (-7.8 runs), and Kansas City Royals (-6.3 runs). Meanwhile, teams like the Seattle Mariners (+11.0 runs) and Arizona Diamondbacks (+10.4 runs) are enjoying the opposite effect, seeing critical calls go in their favor.

So, what exactly is happening here? How are these figures measured, and what does this mean for a Twins club trying to stay afloat in the AL Central?

The Numbers Behind the Problem
Ump Scorecards is a tool that digs into every pitch of every game to assess three key areas of umpiring performance:

1. Accuracy – How often did the umpire correctly call balls and strikes?
2. Consistency – How uniform and predictable was their strike zone?
3. Favor – How many runs were likely added or subtracted from each team, based on the impact of missed calls?

The “Favor” metric is what drives the overall run differential that’s hurting the Twins this year. This stat measures the impact of missed calls in terms of expected run values. For example, if a missed strike call results in a walk when it should’ve been a strikeout, that shift in plate appearance outcome is factored into the expected run cost for the pitcher’s team. Multiply that over the course of 60 games, and the cumulative effect can be meaningful, especially in close contests.

For the Twins, the impact has been undeniable. They're having bad calls break against them as batters and as pitchers, and the impact of some of those calls (based on count or game situation) is sometimes huge. In short: the Twins haven’t been able to catch a break from the umpires, whether they’re at the plate or on the mound.

The Games That Hurt the Most
Some games stick out as particularly painful examples of how this officiating imbalance has affected Minnesota.

April 6 vs. Houston Astros (9-7 loss in 10 innings)

• Umpire: Chris Conroy
• Overall Favor: +1.0 runs for Houston
• In a game that went into extras, every call mattered. The Twins lost by two runs in a back-and-forth affair that easily could have swung in their favor with tighter umpiring.

April 24 vs. Chicago White Sox (3-0 loss)

• Umpire: Derek Thomas
• Overall Favor: +2.1 runs for Chicago
• One of the most lopsided umpiring performances of the season, this game saw the White Sox gifted more than two expected runs by missed calls. The Twins offense, which struggled that day, didn’t need the extra hurdle of a moving strike zone.

June 6 vs. Toronto Blue Jays (6-4 loss) 

• Umpire: Jordan Baker
• Overall Favor: +1.8 runs for Toronto
• Another narrow defeat, with nearly two runs swinging toward the opposition. In a game decided by two runs, those extra favorable calls made a critical difference.

Over the course of a season, these small matters—a missed call here or there—can accumulate and end up changing standings, playoff odds, and team morale.

No Excuses, But a Real Factor
Now, it’s worth noting that teams and their fans always grumble about umpiring. It’s part of the game. Furthermore, no one is (or should be) imputing malicious intent to these errors by umps. But the numbers here are unusually one-sided. While every club will deal with the occasional blown strike call or borderline miss, the fact that the Twins sit more than four runs below the next-most “unlucky” team is difficult to ignore.

Of course, this doesn’t mean the Twins have played perfectly. They’ve left runners in scoring position, blown saves, and failed to produce in key moments. But the data suggests that Minnesota has been asked to overcome a hidden opponent in nearly every series: the strike zone itself.

One can’t help but notice the contrast with teams like Seattle and Arizona, who have received nearly +11 runs of “favorable” calls from umpires. That’s a 23-run swing in expected performance compared to the Twins. Imagine adding 23 runs to Minnesota’s total scoring output or removing 23 runs from their opponents. That could easily be the difference between third place and first in the AL Central.

Could Change Be Coming?
The introduction of automated strike zones (robo-umps) in the minor league levels and the growing reliance on electronic tracking systems have reopened the debate on whether human umpires should continue to call balls and strikes in the majors. If the Twins are paying attention to these numbers (and you can bet the front office is), they’re likely welcoming that future. Until then, Minnesota must grit its teeth and hope the luck turns or that the next umpire behind the plate finally calls a fair game.

Bad umpiring is part of baseball tradition, but when the numbers lean this hard in one direction, it deserves attention. The Twins have battled on the field all season, but may also be fighting a battle they can't see—a strike zone that seems to shrink and expand based on who's at bat or on the mound.

For a team clinging to postseason hopes, it’s one more obstacle they can ill afford. Let’s hope the remainder of the season brings not only better play but a little more fairness behind the plate, too.

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[Patzky]

We all owe Peter an apology..

[Linus]

I wonder if hitting philosophy plays into this at all. The Twins take a lot of really close pitches with two strikes as they don’t really have a two strike or guard the plate approach leaving them more vulnerable to bad calls. 

[Castinofan]

I wish someone in the Twins front office had the guts to send this article to Joe Torre or whoever is in charge of umpiring.  

[Reptevia]

As soon as you say “expected” outcomes, you’ve lost credibility. The metrics consistently miss “expected “ outcome s. 

[Road trip]

The current umpires are the best humans around to do the job.

But they are human... and not very consistent compared to tech solutions.

To slightly paraphrase Hanlon's razor: "Don't assume malignant intent when inability is a better explanation".  Unfortunately, the limitations of human eye sight mean umpiring balls and strikes will always be done relatively inconsistently if left to humans.  This year it's hurting the Twins.  I'm ready for robo-umps anytime.  

[Parfigliano]

I live in a world where Peter is right.

[Patzky]

10 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I live in a world where Peter is right.

Shh you can tell him when he awakens.

[nicksaviking]

I'm sure it's a snowball effect. Even if it's erroneous, if the Twins hitters are known for getting rung up on close pitches, and the pitchers are known for 'missing' on close pitches, the umpires are going to just start assuming the close ones should typically go against the Twins more than the other teams. Like how the perception is that red cars speed more often, thus red cars get pulled over disproportionately.

Obviously the Twins shouldn't be punished for being good at this, it's just the most damning example of why the sheep should stop being allowed to call balls and strikes when it can easily be automated.

[KirbyDome89]

So are we just going to ignore the fact that the Twins have one of the worst pitch framing duos in baseball? 

[rdehring]

Thanks for this piece, Cody.

I now will have something to tell my wife when she takes me to task as I am swearing at the television.  This piece put a smile on my face and that's always appreciated.

[Craig Arko]

I guess they don’t like the Pohlads, either.

[Whitey333]

Interesting and well researched but just a whiners excuse for Twins play imo.

[Sjoski]

Great article. 

Seems a lot of calls go against  Correa. Since he was apart of the scandal in Houston.  Are umpires subconsciously against him? 

This is a question.  Not an opinion.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I wonder if hitting philosophy plays into this at all. The Twins take a lot of really close pitches with two strikes as they don’t really have a two strike or guard the plate approach leaving them more vulnerable to bad calls. 

Hitting philosophy, and then pitch framing on the other side. 

As for robo umps, I think I'm ok with it as it was implemented in Spring Training. A quick and easy way for batters to second guess the umpire. There's only been two games in the statcast era where an umpire had a perfect game. Every single umpire is going to miss calls. 

However, as I smiled watched those waymos burning this week, I was reminded how I don't want robots to take anything over. It's a tool I'm comfortable using, but miss me with any sort of idea of full time automated balls and strikes system. 

[Western SD Fan]

I'm also curious if managerial styles also play a role in getting or missing calls by umpires.  No, this is not a criticism of Rocco and his managerial style.  What I mean is some managers are more vocal about certain calls than others.  Examples include Boone with the Yankees, Cora with the Red Sox, Counsil with the Cubs, and Schneider with the Blue Jays come to mind.  Do they tend to get more calls than the average and does their constant chirping leave something in the minds of the umps.  Just a question and I reiterate that this is NOT a criticism of Rocco here.  Rocco has plenty of things that I'm upset with him about, this is not it.

[alexlegge]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So are we just going to ignore the fact that the Twins have one of the worst pitch framing duos in baseball? 

Apparently - that's what most of the fanbase seems to be doing right now.

There's a lot of "woe is me" in Minnesota sports fandom, and that is justified. But not every misfortune is the result of bad luck or East Coast bias.

At least the catching tandem has been insanely durable - neither catcher has been on the IL since Vazquez signed with the Twins in the '22-'23 offseason. I'm willing to tolerate the poor framing as long as their durability and combined offensive production persists.

Besides, either way you 'frame' it, the Twins will absolutely benefit if/when MLB starts using the ABS challenge system.

[Eris]

The article confirms what my eyes can see. Lots of call strikes on pitches that were balls in situations that really mattered. 

[FlyingFinn]

Bring on the robo umps. I want the calls to be fair. None of this, he's a veteran so he gets the benefit and he's a rookie, so he doesn't. Get the calls right. We have the technology to do this efficiently.

[stringer bell]

I doubt the number of missed calls is as big a discrepancy as when those missed calls are made. The called third to Jeffers in the Toronto series is a great example of a single missed call having a big impact on expected runs scored. 

[h2oface]

Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) that uses a network of cameras around the field to track the ball's trajectory and records and reports the result instantaneously is not a robot. The human umpire receives the information instantaneously and makes the call reported. My cruise control, that recieves information constantly and I allow to control the speed of my car consistently is not a robot. My thermostat that regulates temperature is not a robot. It is a tool. ABS is a tool. No emotion. No pride. No arrogance, No prejudice. No compassion. No feeling of any pressure.

The perfect pitch or perfect take - the hardest pitches for a human to get right consistently - should be rewarded, not punished. Ever. For a critical pitch, or for an 0-0 count. These closest pitches are the pitch calls that the batter and pitcher and game deserve the most. Any and all tools that help that happen more consistently so the players decide the at bat and not a supposed impartial third party should be welcomed, not feared. 

Great article.

[Mark G]

11 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I'm also curious if managerial styles also play a role in getting or missing calls by umpires.  No, this is not a criticism of Rocco and his managerial style.  What I mean is some managers are more vocal about certain calls than others.  Examples include Boone with the Yankees, Cora with the Red Sox, Counsil with the Cubs, and Schneider with the Blue Jays come to mind.  Do they tend to get more calls than the average and does their constant chirping leave something in the minds of the umps.  Just a question and I reiterate that this is NOT a criticism of Rocco here.  Rocco has plenty of things that I'm upset with him about, this is not it.

I was wondering the same thing myself.  We used to have this discussion back when TK was manager and he would rarely argue with the umpires and almost never got tossed.  Subconsciously umpires might just go with the path of least resistance when it comes to a really close call going either way.  I am curious if that were to be taken into consideration game by game, pitch by pitch, and who the opposing manager was each time.  Good take.  

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with most everybody here. Baseball needs to be fair, take away bias & human error. Stop MN always getting the short end of the stick. ABS can't start fast enough for me. There's nothing romantic about blown calls.