The Twins Need Bats. The Future of Free Agency is Dim.

[Peter Labuza]

Recent extensions are putting more and more bats out of reach for even a more spend-friendly Twins team. Trading—and trading now—might be the best option.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

Despite my most wishful thinking, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now a Blue Jay for life. That’s a good deal for Toronto—as well as the sport of baseball—but it opens up questions for the Twins. While the famed pitching pipeline has been able to flex its muscles, the Twins once again are hampered by a lineup that simply cannot compete with the kinds of bats out there. While Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton will provide strong offense for a few years, the team will may simply need the kind of large investment that other teams have done.

More so, extensions like the one for Vlad or Jackson Merrill of the Padres are becoming more and more common throughout the league. Even hitters without a single day of service time in MLB are locked into team-friendly extensions to secure both their own and the team’s future success.

For the Twins, what does free agency even look like? The obvious answer is likely nothing as we have seen for two straight off seasons. But for this scenario, let’s imagine a Pohlad-less world where the Twins will have some money to spend. And even in one with the Pohlads, the team will see approximately around $30 million coming off the books (though with some likely pricey arbitrations that will likely eat at least a third of that).

But let’s assume that the Twins had $25 million to drop on a free agent going forward. This is where things get trickier than simply “find big hitter.” Here’s a current chart of current top free agent hitters in the near future, the year they reach free agency, and their likely AAV:

Player	Free Agent Year	Projected AAV	Options?
Kyle Tucker	2026	$44.40
Alex Bregman	2026	$29.96	Opt-Out
Pete Alonso	2026	$29.00	Player Option
Adley Rutschman	2028	$25.39
Jeremy Peña	2028	$23.97
Teoscar Hernández	2028	$23.75	Club Option
Christian Walker	2028	$22.06
Jarren Duran	2026	$20.57	Club Option
Alec Bohm	2027	$20.33
Brandon Lowe	2026	$20.10	Club Option
Josh Naylor	2026	$20.01
Steven Kwan	2028	$19.83
Marcell Ozuna	2026	$19.33
Randy Arozarena	2027	$19.20
Brendan Donovan	2028	$19.16
Bryan de la Cruz	2028	$19.16
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	2026	$19.10
Nathaniel Lowe	2027	$17.95
William Contreras	2026	$17.70	Club Option
Luis Arráez	2026	$17.16
Jazz Chisholm	2027	$16.94
Tyler O'Neil	2026	$16.23	Opt-Out
Ryan Mountcastle	2027	$15.00

 

This list is likely a little more than what we need, but it also proves a point at what the market will look like. If the Twins are signing a big bopper, the kind due for 40 homer power, you likely are spending no less than the Jarren Duran (the Twins have been in the Luis Arraez business before, and while a fantastic presence at the plate, they simply need a different type of hitter). But a few of the guys above that are approaching their mid-30s by their next free agency. Others like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso have serious question marks. And I highly doubt the Twins are planning to be in the Kyle Tucker business, who is likely due even more than Guerreo. 

So how can the Twins compete in the hitting department? Some of that will be on the prospects—Walker Jenkins, Luke Keshall, Emmanuel Rodriguez—to develop into true talents (never an easy feat). But more likely, the Twins will have to begin parting ways with their pitching. 

The question is what style of trade will work, and what to pair alongside that. If the Twins continue to disappoint this season and find themselves as sellers, would Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober become obvious candidates? Rather than target a new set of prospects, the Twins could at least try for a pre-arbitration ready slugger. 

Using Ben Clemens’s Trade Value series from 2024, here’s the names that would be useful for the Twins if these teams felt their window was closing. I’ve kept off the names signed to massive contracts, but looked at a mix of pre-arb kids and those under team-friendly extension contracts:

Player	Current Status
Gunnar Henderson	Arb in 2026
Elly de la Cruz	Arb in 2027
Yordan Álvarez	$96.2/4 Years
Riley Greene	Arb in 2026
Corbin Carroll	$72/5 Years
Ronald Acuña Jr.	$68/4 Years
Michael Harris II	$45/5 Years
Luis Robert Jr.	$55/3 Years

Within this group, you could see some teams willing to get creative. The Astros may finally feel the need to rebuild, and the Twins could use an all time slugger like Yordon Alverez. The Braves might try and close their window and ship of Ronald Acuña Jr. or Michael Harris II. 

But beyond prospects, how much would the Twins have to let go? Consider this challenge trade: Adley Rutschman has essentially three full seasons in Baltimore, and they already have another top catching prospect and a desperate need for pitching. Would they take Zebby Matthews or David Festa (along with Mike Elias’s preferred payroll flexibility) to essentially drive them far into October? Would that cost be enough to get a player that makes it done? And would they be willing to trade now rather than wait till the deadline?

The Twins seem to be in dire help of slugging. Royce Lewis will return, but the question marks all over his injury list have had some of my colleagues discussing a de-centering of his role. And most of all, the Twins have the arms ready to go to, with three full-fledged starters in AAA that seem major league ready. Like the Padres grabbing out Luis Arráez in May from the Marlins, waiting for the deadline can be a sucker’s game. If the Twins want to shake up a team that already looks lifeless, a new bat might make the difference.

 

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[Linus]

Free agency won’t be an option anyway. I would wait this out to see if any of these guys step up. It’s hard to know what hole to plug when all you have is holes. 

[Reptevia]

I haven’t seen any evidence of this mythical “spend friendly “ era of which you allude. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article. However I must respectfully disagree with your statement that the Twins "need a different type of hitter" than Luis Arraez.  Arraez has a .322 lifetime average, a .370 OBP and .787 OPS. He plays 2B (a weakness of the Twins right now), 1B (no prospects for 1B in the pipeline for the Twins and using a 1 year free agent at 1B now) and 3B (Miranda, currently). We all like homeruns, but "the second coming of Tony Gwyn" will be in the Hall of Fame if he keeps this hitting up for 10 more years. The Twins could certainly find a position in the lineup for Luis Arraez for today's game with Detroit and for the rest of this season and for the rest of this amazing hitter's career.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 To hell with Apple tv. Have a nice day.

[DJL44]

This team is much more likely to be selling veterans than buying.

[Linus]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This team is much more likely to be selling veterans than buying.

Agreed. But who are we selling?  I would think Castro Bader France Vasquez if anyone would take him - same with Paddack. 

[FargoFanMan]

I don’t believe they make a big trade in season unless the current team continues what they’ve done up to the end of July. In which case Rocco is probably gone and maybe a front office person or two are boxing up their office in anticipation of looking for a job end of season. I don’t see them shaking things up until late May if this continues and by that point it’s probably too late. They are gonna sink or swim in the next month. It will either be agonizing or fun. Get ready!

[FargoFanMan]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

Agreed. But who are we selling?  I would think Castro Bader France Vasquez if anyone would take him - same with Paddack. 

There’ll be takers on those guys. Won’t get much for them but they’ll get something. Ober is probably on the block. They probably get calls on Ryan as well. If Royce is back and playing decent they probably get calls on him as well along with Jax and Duran. If this continues by end of July they need to build a new team that compliments the next wave. Not rebuilding but a full scale retooling. Putting guys around Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Wallner, Jenkins, Erod, Mathew’s, festa, Keaschall, and whomever they don’t trade. There’s another team in here somewhere that can be good but the complimentary players they have to those guys now are failing massively. And for the love of god get Gasper out of here. He clearly can’t hit. He can walk. Good plate discipline. He just can’t hit. Or play defense.

[FargoFanMan]

53 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

 To hell with Apple tv. Have a nice day.

I like the apple.tv broadcast but I have apple.tv. I can see not buying it for the handful of twins games in a season though. The experience is pretty good with knowledgeable broadcasters that don’t just focus on the star players like some others and the stat lines and percentages are very cutting edge. It would be good for baseball and driving the analytics side of the game to partner with them more. By my standards it’s the best game experience of them all for sure! 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, Linus said:

Agreed. But who are we selling?  I would think Castro Bader France Vasquez if anyone would take him - same with Paddack. 

Nobody's taking Vazquez, but there are a bunch of useful pitchers ages 30 and up: Coulombe, Stewart, Tonkin, Topa, Jax, and Ober. The last two would bring the most in return.

[LambchoP]

I think the team is more likely to be sellers this year if we keep playing like this and are out of contention in another month or two. Guys like France, Castro and Bader are probably gone. Pitching wise I could see is getting calls on Ober, Jax, Sands and Duran. I really hope it doesn't happen, but I can see a rebuild coming. It will be hard to do considering Correa and Buxton are locked in long term...

[thelanges5]

FO that hasn’t made a meaningful move in 2 years, Pohlads crying poor, the players hurt and/or underperforming. That’s not a good tasting recipe for us fans.
Hard to see a way out but I can squint and see us sell at the deadline in order to call up some of the youth for the 2nd half. 
I hope we don’t trade the young controllable arms but like many have said - Castro, Bader, France and maybe a few others may not be Twins after the allstar break. 

[laloesch]

15 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think the team is more likely to be sellers this year if we keep playing like this and are out of contention in another month or two. Guys like France, Castro and Bader are probably gone. Pitching wise I could see is getting calls on Ober, Jax, Sands and Duran. I really hope it doesn't happen, but I can see a rebuild coming. It will be hard to do considering Correa and Buxton are locked in long term...

Yep.  And as many of us rightly feared those Buxton and Correa contracts are gonna haunt the franchise for the next 5 years.

[Linus]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Nobody's taking Vazquez, but there are a bunch of useful pitchers ages 30 and up: Coulombe, Stewart, Tonkin, Topa, Jax, and Ober. The last two would bring the most in return.

Those guys are logical candidates but nobody is giving you anything for those guys except Jax and Ober. 
Here is what I think is the crux of the issue. It doesn’t make sense to blow this thing up if you are still paying Correa and to a lesser degree Buxton.  The next question is can you deal them?  I don’t think you can because you would have to get them to waive their no trade clauses and find someone that actually wants them. I don’t see anyone (right now) lining up to pay C4 $30+ million a year even if he waives hisNTC. 
The other factor is that most of the time you are dumping proven veterans in this scenario. Other than some pitching we don’t have that. Who realistically is giving anything for Larnach, Miranda, Julien et al. These are not young players with upside.  
So my conclusion is that blowing it up sounds good but isnt really an option. If you are keeping C4 and Buck then you want to keep the pitching. I think we better Hope like hell that EmRod and Keaschall are stars. 

[Doctor Gast]

The league has put a lot of premium on HRs. Analytics are based on HRs like WAR & OPS, baseball instincts, fundamentals, SO, defense, baserunning & etc, and have been ignored. Players with high WAR & OPS are paid a premium, whether in $$$ or prospects. The league has also adjusted to the hitters that adhere to the "all or nothing" hitting approach. That's why HRs were down last season. The Twins have left the "all or nothing" approach & have started to play more fundamentally sound baseball, but years of managing, drafting & development isn't easy to make that transition. 

IMO, the Twins' biggest problem isn't our offense potential; our bigger problems are lack of fire, chemistry, defense, execution of fundamentals & managing. IMO, obtaining an expensive big bat is a crap shoot that we can't afford & will not be a big enough impact to change our situation. Fast, defensive, OB machines are better investment & more impactful. Go with & try to develop these guys.

 

[Linus]

17 minutes ago, Linus said:

Those guys are logical candidates but nobody is giving you anything for those guys except Jax and Ober. 
Here is what I think is the crux of the issue. It doesn’t make sense to blow this thing up if you are still paying Correa and to a lesser degree Buxton.  The next question is can you deal them?  I don’t think you can because you would have to get them to waive their no trade clauses and find someone that actually wants them. I don’t see anyone (right now) lining up to pay C4 $30+ million a year even if he waives hisNTC. 
The other factor is that most of the time you are dumping proven veterans in this scenario. Other than some pitching we don’t have that. Who realistically is giving anything for Larnach, Miranda, Julien et al. These are not young players with upside.  
So my conclusion is that blowing it up sounds good but isnt really an option. If you are keeping C4 and Buck then you want to keep the pitching. I think we better Hope like hell that EmRod and Keaschall are stars. 

To add on one more downer - if we do blow it up does anybody want this FO in charge of that process?

[Riverbrian]

I entertain no thoughts that new ownership will come in and raise payroll to a higher tier. 

We may get a honeymoon bounce before settling back to the spending levels we are accustomed to. 

Kyle Tucker types or going to be out of our reach. One year affordable contracts do not produce Kyle Tucker types. If they do by some miracle... they will be gone for bigger money the following year. Leaving you searching the lower end of free agency again. 

If you want a Kyle Tucker on your roster. You must develop a Kyle Tucker.

If you want to trade for a Kyle Tucker in his final year like the Cubs did it's going to take prospects to get that deal done and that means prospects that interest the Astros must be developed. 

If you want to trade for a future Kyle Tucker... you have to players that other teams want and that takes development. Players acquired via free agent like Carlos Correa can't be converted to a future free agent because they are overpriced through the nature of free agents signing with the highest bidder.

One Year Vets signed through free agency will not be enough to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type.

It will take a developed player with years of control to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type. It would take a Wallner type and then you have to replace Wallner. 

We can't afford players developed by other organizations. We must develop our own. Every roster spot utilized by lower tier free agents is additional money beyond the minimum spent against the budget. That additional money beyond the minumum could be combined to play in the upper tier of free agency for one player and remain in under budget.

Develop or Die. Free Agency will never be our friend until we starting churning out pre-arb talent to help us pay for an upper end free agent.  

The Twins are currently in the bottom tier of pre-arb talent on the roster. As a result the Twins are currently spending around 27 million on 7 players who won't be back next year and those players who comprise that 27 million won't have a ton of suitors for their services next season.  That 27 million would make them players in the upper end of free agency for 1 or 2 upper end players. In order to direct your resources toward 1 or 2 players. You will need 5 or 6 pre-arb players to fill the remaining spots. 

An additional 5 or 6 pre-arb players added to the roster to free up the money to chase higher end players may sound like an impossible task... It's not. 5 or 6 additional pre-arb players will put the Twins at a pre-arb level already in place with winning teams like the Red Sox, Brewers, Guardians, Tigers and Rays. 

It doesn't matter what path we take to get there. It'll take the development of players to free up money to sign bigger name free agents. It'll take the development of players to trade for talented players or future talented players. And it'll take the development players to fill your roster spots internally. 

Develop or Die. 

 

[dogman]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good article. However I must respectfully disagree with your statement that the Twins "need a different type of hitter" than Luis Arraez.  Arraez has a .322 lifetime average, a .370 OBP and .787 OPS. He plays 2B (a weakness of the Twins right now), 1B (no prospects for 1B in the pipeline for the Twins and using a 1 year free agent at 1B now) and 3B (Miranda, currently). We all like homeruns, but "the second coming of Tony Gwyn" will be in the Hall of Fame if he keeps this hitting up for 10 more years. The Twins could certainly find a position in the lineup for Luis Arraez for today's game with Detroit and for the rest of this season and for the rest of this amazing hitter's career.

 

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I entertain no thoughts that new ownership will come in and raise payroll to a higher tier. 

We may get a honeymoon bounce before settling back to the spending levels we are accustomed to. 

Kyle Tucker types or going to be out of our reach. One year affordable contracts do not produce Kyle Tucker types. If they do by some miracle... they will be gone for bigger money the following year. Leaving you searching the lower end of free agency again. 

If you want a Kyle Tucker on your roster. You must develop a Kyle Tucker.

If you want to trade for a Kyle Tucker in his final year like the Cubs did it's going to take prospects to get that deal done and that means prospects that interest the Astros must be developed. 

If you want to trade for a future Kyle Tucker... you have to players that other teams want and that takes development. Players acquired via free agent like Carlos Correa can't be converted to a future free agent because they are overpriced through the nature of free agents signing with the highest bidder.

One Year Vets signed through free agency will not be enough to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type.

It will take a developed player with years of control to acquire a future Kyle Tucker type. It would take a Wallner type and then you have to replace Wallner. 

We can't afford players developed by other organizations. We must develop our own. Every roster spot utilized by lower tier free agents is additional money beyond the minimum spent against the budget. That additional money beyond the minumum could be combined to play in the upper tier of free agency for one player and remain in under budget.

Develop or Die. Free Agency will never be our friend until we starting churning out pre-arb talent to help us pay for an upper end free agent.  

The Twins are currently in the bottom tier of pre-arb talent on the roster. As a result the Twins are currently spending around 27 million on 7 players who won't be back next year and those players who comprise that 27 million won't have a ton of suitors for their services next season.  That 27 million would make them players in the upper end of free agency for 1 or 2 upper end players. In order to direct your resources toward 1 or 2 players. You will need 5 or 6 pre-arb players to fill the remaining spots. 

An additional 5 or 6 pre-arb players added to the roster to free up the money to chase higher end players may sound like an impossible task... It's not. 5 or 6 additional pre-arb players will put the Twins at a pre-arb level already in place with winning teams like the Red Sox, Brewers, Guardians, Tigers and Rays. 

It doesn't what path we take to get there. It'll take the development of players to free up money to sign bigger name free agents. It'll take the development of players to trade for talented players or future talented players. And it'll take the development players to fill your roster spots internally. 

Develop or Die. 

 

 

[dogman]

The manager should be the first to go.  He makes the same mistake with the pitching over and over.. Unless things turn around Id go for a rebuild after the allstar game.. Clean house.

[dxpavelka]

What's up with all the doom and gloom.  Haven't you heard?  The team is going to be sold.  The new owners are gonna spend money like drunken sailors on shore leave.  Soon we'll be in the business of trading away excess free agent bats.  Good times.

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

The other factor is that most of the time you are dumping proven veterans in this scenario. 

Today's proven veterans are tomorrow's washed-up has-beens. Trade anyone over 30 while you still can.

[rv78]

The 2 biggest problems are Buxton and Correa. They are locked in thru 2028. When you spend 1/3 of your payroll on 2 players and neither one of them can hit consistantly or even play consistantly you've got a mess.

You can look at it 2 ways:

1. If they both were consitantly productive and provided consistant playing time then you really need to doubledown and spend even more money to bring in a couple more studs to put you over the top. The Twins fail to do that every off-season bringing in washed up floor type players that never make them any better. We've seen it for years now and this season won't be any different. It's the same failed recipe that ends up burning.

2. Since neither one really can produce consistantly and have proven to be injury prone, they are a detriment to any rebuilding process right now because of their no trade clauses. Get them to waive that part and then you trade for new young players that actually can play every day and are capable of hitting consistantly. Rebulding with them is difficult, without them it'd be a whole lot easier.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The league has put a lot of premium on HRs.

It's not "the league". It's the game. Home runs win baseball games. That's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns".

[FargoFanMan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Nobody's taking Vazquez, but there are a bunch of useful pitchers ages 30 and up: Coulombe, Stewart, Tonkin, Topa, Jax, and Ober. The last two would bring the most in return.

Someone will take Vazquez. A good backup defensive catcher in the last year of a deal is always wanted by a contender at the deadline. Stewart’s going nowhere and I don’t see Tonkin even with the team by the deadline. 

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It's not "the league". It's the game. Home runs win baseball games. That's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns".

HR’s also lose you games. They come in bunches and disappear like a ghost when you need them most. HR’s will win you post season games as well but you gotta get there. True it scores runs faster and in bigger bunches.

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

The 2 biggest problems are Buxton and Correa. They are locked in thru 2028. When you spend 1/3 of your payroll on 2 players and neither one of them can hit consistantly or even play consistantly you've got a mess.

You can look at it 2 ways:

1. If they both were consitantly productive and provided consistant playing time then you really need to doubledown and spend even more money to bring in a couple more studs to put you over the top. The Twins fail to do that every off-season bringing in washed up floor type players that never make them any better. We've seen it for years now and this season won't be any different. It's the same failed recipe that ends up burning.

2. Since neither one really can produce consistantly and have proven to be injury prone, they are a detriment to any rebuilding process right now because of their no trade clauses. Get them to waive that part and then you trade for new young players that actually can play every day and are capable of hitting consistantly. Rebulding with them is difficult, without them it'd be a whole lot easier.

They’re not rebuilding. Period. They can’t with the guys you mentioned along with Lopez. They can retool. And if this continues they should. Rebuilding means you trade everyone you can and wait for prospects. That’s not happening. Not until the manager and some front office guys lose their jobs.

[Dawgzilla]

Wow!  What a terrible squad!  Twins scouting stinks too to exasperate future projections.  Twins never bring guys up that they have drafted young that turn out to be real studs!  Look at the Braves, Tigers, Orioles, Rays, etc. as examples of having young talent, multiple ones at that, that come up early and are pretty successful; Twins bring their "future stars" up when they qualify for Medicare, if even maybe not a star they thought they drafted, then instructed in minors.

 

Analytics are also somewhat over thought, let alone over rated.  Sometimes you have to go by your gut feeling too.

 

Rocko needs to have more fire in his belly, shake the team up a little, like Lasorda, Billy Martin, Earl Weaver, Lou Pinella, etc ..!

 

Bye bye attendance!!!!!

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's not "the league". It's the game. Home runs win baseball games. That's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns".

Scoring runs wins baseball games. It's legal to do so without hitting a home run.

The overemphasis on SLG at the expense of everything else is not an efficient way to construct a consistent scoring team.

It's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns by throwing bombs on every down."

[Danchat]

The Twins are going to need to do what other teams do - develop hitters in the minors. How many bats has this front office developed into quality or even slightly above replacement level players? And how many have been average defensively? Or even a tick below average? Or even a passable utility bench player?

Heck, when is the last time this team developed an international kid from scratch? Feels like it has been since the days of Sano/Kepler/Polanco that we've had any sort of infusion of talent from that portion of the farm. Since that trio, only Arraez has gone on to be anything decent. The likes of Wander Javier and Misael Urbina have flopped, and no notable guy they've acquired from other means (Celestino) have panned out.

And for the talk of the emphasis on slugging and hitting home runs, the lineup isn't even that great at that. The only guys to have quality slugging numbers last year (that were developed) were Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis. Larnach and Miranda's power hasn't developed as hoped, and the likes of Kirilloff and Sabato failed. Even if the ball hadn't been deadened, their bat-first players aren't even that good of sluggers.

Sure, the next crop of hitters might be the next big thing, but so was the last crop.