3 Twins Hitters Expected to Outperform Their 2024 Numbers in 2025

[Cody Christie]

Some players fail to meet expectations every season, and the Twins had three key hitters who struggled in 2024. Here is why there are plenty of reasons for optimism with this trio.

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Sports

The 2024 season was filled with sky-high expectations for Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis, but each fell short of delivering the production the Minnesota Twins needed. While their individual struggles were disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to believe that all three are primed for a bounce-back season in 2025. Let’s break down what went wrong and why the future looks brighter for this trio.

Edouard Julien: Rebounding After the Sophomore Slump

2024 Recap: Julien entered the season following a stellar rookie campaign in 2023 that saw him post a 130 OPS+ while improving significantly with his second base defense. However, 2024 was a tale of regression with a 74 OPS+ that led to a trip back to Triple-A. His strikeout rate jumped from 31.4% to 33.9%, and pitchers adjusted by attacking him with a steady diet of high fastballs and breaking pitches down and away. His OPS dropped by over 200 points, leaving many to wonder if his rookie season was a fluke.

Why 2025 Looks Promising: Julien’s struggles were primarily driven by adjustments he will undoubtedly work to counteract. Julien has shown elite plate discipline throughout his career, posting walk rates over 19% at every minor league level. His ability to identify pitches and lay off borderline offerings remains a strength, and he is likely spending the offseason fine-tuning his approach to combat high heat and breaking pitches. Additionally, his underlying metrics suggest some bad luck in 2024. His .351 xSLG was 28 points higher than his actual SLG. Expect regression to the mean and a more balanced offensive approach to pay dividends for Julien in 2025.

Brooks Lee: Adjusting to the Big Leagues

2024 Recap: Lee was one of the Twins’ top prospects entering 2024, but he experienced a rocky rookie season. Lee, who had looked polished in the minors, struggled to adjust to major-league pitching. His .221/.265/.320 (.585) slash line was well below expectations. He often looked overmatched against breaking pitches, with eight strikeouts and two extra-base hits in 39 PA. Defensively, he also struggled with a -2 OAA at shortstop and a -1 OAA at third base. His college experience and minor league performance were supposed to help him adjust to the MLB level, but that didn’t happen. 

Why 2025 Looks Promising: Transitioning to the majors is rarely seamless, even for top prospects. Lee’s track record as a hitter suggests that 2024 was more of a learning curve than an indicator of long-term issues. He excelled at making contact in the minors by slashing .290/.362/.480 (.841), and his compact swing remains a significant asset. In addition, Lee is known for his high baseball IQ and relentless work ethic, qualities that should help him make the necessary adjustments at the plate. With a full offseason to study big-league pitchers and work with the Twins’ coaching staff, Lee is well positioned to tap into his potential and emerge as a cornerstone infielder in 2025.

Royce Lewis: Health and Consistency Are Key

2024 Recap: Royce Lewis’s 2024 season was a rollercoaster. Lewis was limited to 23 games in the first half due to multiple injuries, but he posted a 1.039 OPS and 10 home runs in 99 PA. He struggled mightily when he returned for the second half, posting a .620 OPS in his final 58 games. Lewis’s strikeout rate ballooned, and he looked uncharacteristically tentative at the plate. His late-season slump overshadowed what had been an electric beginning to the year.

Why 2025 Looks Promising: Lewis’s talent is undeniable, and health has always been the key to unlocking his potential. Entering 2025, fully healthy, Lewis will have the opportunity to regain his confidence and rhythm. Despite his second-half struggles, Lewis still showcased elite performance early in 2024. His ability to rise to big moments suggests that his ceiling remains high. Furthermore, the Twins hired Matt Borgschulte as hitting coach, and he’s worked with Lewis during his previous stint in the organization. With a more stable role and a clean bill of health, expect Lewis to return to the dynamic player fans saw flashes of in 2024.

The 2024 season didn’t go as planned for Julien, Lee, or Lewis. However, it’s far too early to write off their potential. Each player faced unique challenges last season, and each has the tools and mindset to overcome them. Julien’s plate discipline, Lee’s prospect pedigree, and Lewis’ athleticism and resilience provide plenty of reasons for optimism. If they can make the necessary adjustments and stay healthy, these three players could form the core of a Twins team poised to contend in 2025 and beyond.

Which player is poised for the best season in 2025? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Both Lee and Lewis I'd attribute some of their performance to injuries. Hopefully both will have great 2025 seasons.

Julien, I guess we'll see. To me he is on the outside looking in currently. If he can get back to his 2023 pace, then he has a spot at 1b/2b/dh in some capacity. But we'll see what other moves are made.

So many guys on the team, on the position player side specifically, have things individually they can prove. 

[dxpavelka]

If two of the three don't it's gonna be a long summer around these parts.

 

[chpettit19]

Julien: A .351 xSLG isn't good. If that's the selling point for improvement it's not a great selling point. For comparison sake, his xSLG in 2023 was .427. That was good for a 51st percentile rank. So basically average. His .323 SLG being below his .351 xSLG certainly isn't good, but if the regression to the mean is him getting to the xSLG of .351 he shouldn't be in the Twins plans for 2025.

Lee: I've never been a big believer that Lee has star upside. Big leaguer regular is the ceiling I see. He looked like he was pressing last year, to me. Mixed with some injuries that isn't a great situation for a young player. I do believe he has a very good work ethic and I expect him to come back ready to put himself in a good position to put his best foot forward. But he's ticketed for AAA if I'm in charge. He has to earn his way back to the big league roster.

Lewis: Appeared to run out of gas. A nearly 2 MPH drop in swing speed at the end of the season would seem to confirm that. The talent is there. Hopefully he's able to get a better routine in place for next season, stay healthy, and maintain his performance all season in 2025. Have no doubt about his talent, just his ability to stay healthy or not run out of gas.

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Julien, I guess we'll see. To me he is on the outside looking in currently. If he can get back to his 2023 pace, then he has a spot at 1b/2b/dh in some capacity. But we'll see what other moves are made.

 

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

he shouldn't be in the Twins plans for 2025

I agree, which is why I am concerned that Julien is the opening day DH on the current depth chart.

[bean5302]

Brooks Lee didn't struggle against breaking pitches or off speed stuff. Brooks Lee couldn't hit fastballs, and I mean really couldn't hit fastballs with a -5 runs vs. average MLB hitters against 4 seamers and even -3 runs against sinkers in those limited plate appearances between injuries. That's a huge problem as pitchers are going to eat him up if Lee can't improve his swing speed and catch up to MLB velocities. It really does seem like a swing speed/decision timing issue as Lee enjoyed solid performance against the slower traveling offspeeds like changeups and curves. With a mediocre power tool and no athleticism (slow runner, weak arm, slow swing), Lee has plenty of work to do, and that's why I'd really like to see him get plenty of action at AAA before coming back up again unless it really looks like it was just fallout from his back and shoulder issues. Polish can take you a long ways in the minors, and I'm concerned that's what carried Brooks Lee until his physical tools were exposed at the MLB level. I think a lot of people, including me, sometimes overlook just how insanely hard it is to be successful at the MLB level. 

Royce Lewis needs some health working his way for a change. The back to back ACLs, plus the severe quad strain and then the hip adductor destroyed his explosiveness, and that lower body is critical to swing speed and power. Considering how Lewis has talked, rehabbed and invested in his physical fitness, I'm hoping his lower body can rebound. He's shown he can be an elite hitter, crushing even well placed pitches, regardless of the pitch type. I'm no longer expecting Lewis will be healthy, but I'm still hoping for it.

When it comes to Julien, he's going to need to back off the plate a little so he can get at those pitches further inside, IMHO. The sacrifice is going to be his ability to effectively hit stuff outside, but he needs to  change it up and adjust or he's cooked.

[Blyleven2011]

Julien  has to earn his way back from AAA  , Lee  has to have a decent spring training to make the opening day lineup , his swing was slow , he definitely was not 100% coming back from injuries , so if he's  totally healthy , it's possible he makes the club out of spring training ...

Lewis , sure hope the injuries subside and we can see what a full season of play would look like ...

 

[thelanges5]

A lot of 2025s results will be dependent upon how these guys perform. Especially with the self imposed payroll constraints the Twins have. 
 

Need a full season of Lewis. Promising article by Dan Hayes about Lewis’s approach to the offseason and training with Larnach. 

[mikelink45]

Another wait and see essay.  This is hope, no real support.  I too hope this happens, but I was just reading https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43062222/mlb-2024-25-olney-ranking-top-10-best-teams-right-now

right now and we are not in it - Cleveland is and KC is and we are not in the best of the rest - Detroit is. 

That is not to say they are right, but like me they have to see things happen to believe in our potential.   Last year was our potential year.  Next year we need to see performance.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Lee: I've never been a big believer that Lee has star upside. Big leaguer regular is the ceiling I see.

I think we agree completely on this but where I differ with alot of folks (not sure of you) is that a big league regular is enormous upside and not a failure to launch that many treat it.  Not many Trouts out there.

Folks, a big league regular is a lineup lock 3-4 WAR player.  That puts him solidly are top 50-75 in the game. All of MLB.  At 24 in his 3rd year of pro ball where he struggled initially at every level.  My comp has always been Alex Bregman. I'll take it.  Brooks will be just fine.

In fact, all three will be just fine if they settle in as big league regulars.  The dichotomy is that with all the fanfare Royce Lewis has received, he still has to prove he is a big league regular.

My eternal hope is that Brooks Lee remains underrated in a Joe Mauer kind of way.  Big league regular over a 15 year career is hall of fame stuff. 

I'll take it if that's what we call limited upside.

[mikelink45]

The Phillies are banking on an uptick in performance too.  They just signed Kepler.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think we agree completely on this but where I differ with alot of folks (not sure of you) is that a big league regular is enormous upside and not a failure to launch that many treat it.  Not many Trouts out there.

Folks, a big league regular is a lineup lock 3-4 WAR player.  That puts him solidly are top 50-75 in the game. All of MLB.  At 24 in his 3rd year of pro ball where he struggled initially at every level.  My comp has always been Alex Bregman. I'll take it.  Brooks will be just fine.

In fact, all three will be just fine if they settle in as big league regulars.  The dichotomy is that with all the fanfare Royce Lewis has received, he still has to prove he is a big league regular.

My eternal hope is that Brooks Lee remains underrated in a Joe Mauer kind of way.  Big league regular over a 15 year career is hall of fame stuff. 

I'll take it if that's what we call limited upside.

Oh, I definitely wouldn't call a big league regular a bad outcome at all. It's a wonderful outcome. But I see that as his ceiling, not his most likely outcome. A player's ceiling isn't their most likely outcome.

I don't see Bregman. I don't think Lee has 20 HR power let alone 30-40 HR power at his peak. Peak Bregman was an 8-9 WAR player and he's been a 4-5 WAR guy recently. I don't see that in Lee. That's a star player. I see more like a Lourdes Guriel with more like 15-18 HRs instead of 18-21. Or Alec Bohm.

Some will call that a failure like they did with Sano because they have outsized expectations. That's a win, though. If he's Guriel or Bohm the Twins should be very happy. That's a win and he's an important part of the team. But people are building themselves up for Chipper Jones. He's not Chipper. People are expecting a top 5 in the order bat, I see a 6-9 hole bat on a championship type team. Much like Kepler. Useful player, but will come across as disappointing if put in spots where the expectation is that he's supposed to drive the offense. Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Emma, Jenkins, Wallner are those guys. He's the next level down that lengthens the lineup so there's no auto-outs. Like a Miranda. 110-115 OPS+ most years.

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I definitely wouldn't call a big league regular a bad outcome at all. It's a wonderful outcome. But I see that as his ceiling, not his most likely outcome. A player's ceiling isn't their most likely outcome.

I don't see Bregman. I don't think Lee has 20 HR power let alone 30-40 HR power at his peak. Peak Bregman was an 8-9 WAR player and he's been a 4-5 WAR guy recently. I don't see that in Lee. That's a star player. I see more like a Lourdes Guriel with more like 15-18 HRs instead of 18-21. Or Alec Bohm.

Some will call that a failure like they did with Sano because they have outsized expectations. That's a win, though. If he's Guriel or Bohm the Twins should be very happy. That's a win and he's an important part of the team. But people are building themselves up for Chipper Jones. He's not Chipper. People are expecting a top 5 in the order bat, I see a 6-9 hole bat on a championship type team. Much like Kepler. Useful player, but will come across as disappointing if put in spots where the expectation is that he's supposed to drive the offense. Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Emma, Jenkins, Wallner are those guys. He's the next level down that lengthens the lineup so there's no auto-outs. Like a Miranda. 110-115 OPS+ most years.

Bregmans 8-9 WAR years were 18-19, where Kelper was 4 WAR. What Lee could do in a juiced ball year would be interesting.   He's the perfect player type that 20 doubles turn into home runs, in the Crawford boxes no less.  I like my Bregman comp a lot. 

Big league regulars have career years too.

Per fangraphs WAR definitions, 3-4 WAR is a "good" player, 4-5 is an all star.  I think Lee settles is as a "good" player with upside for a big year or two.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

My eternal hope is that Brooks Lee remains underrated in a Joe Mauer kind of way.  Big league regular over a 15 year career is hall of fame stuff. 

I'll take it if that's what we call limited upside.

Gee, isn’t a 15 year regular what Carlos Santana has been? 

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Bregmans 8-9 WAR years were 18-19, where Kelper was 4 WAR. What Lee could do in a juiced ball year would be interesting.   He's the perfect player type that 20 doubles turn into home runs, in the Crawford boxes no less.  I like my Bregman comp a lot. 

Big league regulars have career years too.

Per fangraphs WAR definitions, 3-4 WAR is a "good" player, 4-5 is an all star.  I think Lee settles is as a "good" player with upside for a big year or two.

I'm not telling you not to have a Bregman comp. That's just not mine. He's had 3 straight 4+ bWAR seasons on top of those 2 8 and 9 WAR seasons. And '18 wasn't a juiced ball year. Kepler (your example) hit 20 bombs in '18. I don't see Lee having 3 4+ WAR season let alone multiple 8+ WAR seasons. That's beyond a "good player" or big league regular in my book. That's a star. Like fangraphs says. 5 seasons of all star level play is beyond having a career year in my book. I'd be over the moon if Lee turns into Bregman. 

[Jocko87]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not telling you not to have a Bregman comp. That's just not mine. He's had 3 straight 4+ bWAR seasons on top of those 2 8 and 9 WAR seasons. And '18 wasn't a juiced ball year. Kepler (your example) hit 20 bombs in '18. I don't see Lee having 3 4+ WAR season let alone multiple 8+ WAR seasons. That's beyond a "good player" or big league regular in my book. That's a star. Like fangraphs says. 5 seasons of all star level play is beyond having a career year in my book. I'd be over the moon if Lee turns into Bregman. 

Agreed Bregman is the top level comp, I see more than stats in the comp and can't think of a good one just a smidgen lower.

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Gee, isn’t a 15 year regular what Carlos Santana has been? 

Yes and no, 10 years under 2 WAR and like 9 teams.  If he were at the level of "good" player he would have many less team hats. Argue with fangraphs if you like but they would have him between a role player and solid starter. 

Replacement level is kinda crappy.

[Doctor Gast]

We have to look at underlying conditions. Lee is a rookie & had some back problems, It's a matter of getting acclimated to MLB, which he will. I can also put Martin & Keirsey in that boat, w/o Margot in the equation I expect Martin & Keirsey to be used correctly & more time acclimating to MLB they will shine. Defensively Lee is ready for MLB but as Bean stated he needs time in AAA to work on his swing.

It's been a long time since Lewis has put in anything resembling a full season. He ran out of gas. Eventually he'll get his stamina back & rake.

Julien, is it just a sophomore slump? His defense has always been bad at 2B no matter how much you spin stats. The league has taken away his & many others' HR advantage. It'll take more than a slight adjustment to solve his problem. He'll have to reinvent himself. IF he can make the transformation, he'll no longer profile at 1B, Last season was the best time to trade him but he still has some hyped value, trade him now.

[terrydactyls]

14 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Julien  has to earn his way back from AAA  , Lee  has to have a decent spring training to make the opening day lineup , his swing was slow , he definitely was not 100% coming back from injuries , so if he's  totally healthy , it's possible he makes the club out of spring training ...

Lewis , sure hope the injuries subside and we can see what a full season of play would look like ...

 

Interesting use of the comma as the only punctuation.  And with a space before each comma.  

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Julien  has to earn his way back from AAA  , Lee  has to have a decent spring training to make the opening day lineup ,

To execute on this plan they need to add another OF/DH bat and another infielder. If Lee and Julien don't make the opening day roster they have Michael Helman and Austin Martin as opening day starters.

[Blyleven2011]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To execute on this plan they need to add another OF/DH bat and another infielder. If Lee and Julien don't make the opening day roster they have Michael Helman and Austin Martin as opening day starters.

Someone needs to earn the position , they can all be optioned if they don't come ready to play in spring training  ,  I know you don't like keirsey Jr but if he out performs the others , he makes the team ...

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Someone needs to earn the position , they can all be optioned if they don't come ready to play in spring training  ,  I know you don't like keirsey Jr but if he out performs the others , he makes the team ...

They can't option all of Keirsey, Lee, Julien, Helman and Martin. Right now 4 of the 5 HAVE to make the team or they're playing with just 9 position players on the roster. Even if they decide to give a spot to Emmanuel Rodriguez (who should also probably earn it in AAA) they will need to use 3 of those 5.

They need to add an outfielder and an infielder if they want to make people earn their way to the big leagues. Otherwise we will get scholarships for players who haven't earned it.

There is also NO depth for the inevitable injuries. If the Twins end up with 3 position players on the IL (which happened in April last year) they will be forced to call up one of Eeles, McCusker or Severino.

I know there are prospect fans that want to see all of these guys play, but that's a recipe for a repeat 4th place finish.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To execute on this plan they need to add another OF/DH bat and another infielder. If Lee and Julien don't make the opening day roster they have Michael Helman and Austin Martin as opening day starters.

I'm okay with Martin and/or Helman as "utility guys" who play once a week while Lee and Julien prove their mettle in AAA. Unfortunately, Baldelli will deploy/platoon any RHB as regular starters whenever the opponent stands a lefty up in the bullpen or a left starter is on the mound.

[arby58]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Julien: A .351 xSLG isn't good. If that's the selling point for improvement it's not a great selling point. For comparison sake, his xSLG in 2023 was .427. That was good for a 51st percentile rank. So basically average. His .323 SLG being below his .351 xSLG certainly isn't good, but if the regression to the mean is him getting to the xSLG of .351 he shouldn't be in the Twins plans for 2025.

Lee: I've never been a big believer that Lee has star upside. Big leaguer regular is the ceiling I see. He looked like he was pressing last year, to me. Mixed with some injuries that isn't a great situation for a young player. I do believe he has a very good work ethic and I expect him to come back ready to put himself in a good position to put his best foot forward. But he's ticketed for AAA if I'm in charge. He has to earn his way back to the big league roster.

Lewis: Appeared to run out of gas. A nearly 2 MPH drop in swing speed at the end of the season would seem to confirm that. The talent is there. Hopefully he's able to get a better routine in place for next season, stay healthy, and maintain his performance all season in 2025. Have no doubt about his talent, just his ability to stay healthy or not run out of gas.

Lewis has the talent, but his injury history makes Buxton look like Cal Ripken Jr. You know the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I expect Lewis to get hurt a couple times a year (preferably not on opening day) and play around half the games in a season.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm okay with Martin and/or Helman as "utility guys" who play once a week while Lee and Julien prove their mettle in AAA. Unfortunately, Baldelli will deploy/platoon any RHB as regular starters whenever the opponent stands a lefty up in the bullpen or a left starter is on the mound.

There isn't enough depth for that on the roster. Julien and Lee both project as MLB starters. If they're in AAA then Martin and Helman are starters.

There are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster. One is Camargo. That means you have to pick 13 from the remaining 15 players.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

There isn't enough depth for that on the roster. Julien and Lee both project as MLB starters. If they're in AAA then Martin and Helman are starters.

There are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster. One is Camargo. That means you have to pick 13 from the remaining 15 players.

I get exactly where you're headed with the concern. The Twins' depth at position player is ugly right now.

[Jeff K]

Julien looked lost last season.  Someone already mentioned this, but he needs more than minor adjustments.  I don't see it...but hope I'm wrong.

[Heiny]

Interesting article.  Very optimistic, but that's my normal outlook too.  I still have very high hopes for star quality play from Lewis and Lee as both have quite small sample sizes, though I'm not quite so optimistic with Julien.  He hit 7 quick homers early last year and seemed to swing for the moon ever after.  I think he needs to concentrate on more quality contact and not swinging for the fence on every swing.  The Twins as a whole need to cut way down on all the K's.

 

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I know there are prospect fans that want to see all of these guys play, but that's a recipe for a repeat 4th place finish.

Is that The Plan? We haven't seen much movement and teams are already closing up the holes on their rosters. The Twins are ...... listening?

[stringer bell]

6 hours ago, Heiny said:

Interesting article.  Very optimistic, but that's my normal outlook too.  I still have very high hopes for star quality play from Lewis and Lee as both have quite small sample sizes, though I'm not quite so optimistic with Julien.  He hit 7 quick homers early last year and seemed to swing for the moon ever after.  I think he needs to concentrate on more quality contact and not swinging for the fence on every swing.  The Twins as a whole need to cut way down on all the K's.

 

The Twins cut their strikeouts back (on offense) by over 300. They went from an all-time record to ninth best in all of MLB and yet scored 36 fewer runs. 

[DocBauer]

JULIEN: Complete lost last season. @chpettit19has commented about Jalien's swing plane not being good. I'm not knowledgeable enough about that. But I do believe he needs to try and follow the "Larnach" path of just swinging and making some better contact on the breaking stuff, even if results in foul balls. As great as his recognition is, he's going to be anemic just waiting for a fastball. Based on college, his MILB career, and his rookie season in 2023, I think there's a bat that plays at the ML level. But he's got to be more aggressive at times with his swing. I'm crossing my fingers, but last season was really bad.

LEE: I see Lee as a consistent. 280 ish batter with contact and a solid OB%. I'm expecting 30+ Dbls and around 14-18 HR per year with good defense. That's not a STAR, but that's a really good, solid ML player. Between being a rookie and hurting his shoulder a couple weeks in, his timing was off, and probably his power as well. I think he's going to be OK.

LEWIS: IMO, it all comes down to health for him. His body might have been adjusting to such a long season and he wore down. It's been a while since he played a full year. I'm encouraged by his offseason work with a previous trainer that made him feel "loose" when they worked together before. 

Between these 3, Julien is the one I'd expect to open at AAA.

There's still a couple open spots on the 40 man, IIRC, even before any possible trades of Paddack, and Vazquez. The position side is short and needs depth. But I maintain trading Castro really shorts the roster in many ways and he may be too valuable to move. But SOMETHING is probably going to happen in January to free up some $ for an add or two. And I'm still expecting a prospect or two to be moved in an add, youth for youth I'd bet. And that might just be a catcher from someone, possibly the Dodgers.

TODAY, I'm expecting Keirsey to get 1st shot as the backup CF. And as of TODAY, I'd expect 1 of Helman or Martin as a utility player off the bench. Since Helman can play 7 spots, I'd lean to him at the moment.

That doesn't leave much in reserve at AAA. So again, I'm seeing a couple additions after subtraction. It's rather messy, and not optimal, but it's where we sit TODAY.