Offseason Status Update: Counting Down to the Winter Meetings

[Nick Nelson]

The projected 2025 roster has come into clearer focus over the first month of the offseason, but big questions remain. We should start to get some clarity soon with the marquee event of hot stove season quickly approaching.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

We knew coming into this offseason that Twins fans were in for a long, slow winter, with the front office's impetus to trim down payroll serving as the main storyline rather than any potential for big-splash additions. It's been expectedly quiet through the first month. 

That said, things are happening. With the deadlines to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects and tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players arriving over the past few weeks, the Twins were compelled to make several key decisions. We'll catch you up on those while also setting the stage for the upcoming Winter Meetings in Dallas, where trade conversations figure to heat up.

Twins Tender Contracts to All Arbitration-Eligible Players
When the arbitration deadline arrived on November 22nd, the Twins front office decided to tender contracts to all 11 eligible players, with the only exception being Alex Kirilloff who had already made the decision for them by retiring earlier in the month. 

The class of retained players, who will all receive guaranteed contracts (many of which still need to be specifically agreed upon), included a few mild surprises—namely, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin. Neither will be expensive; Topa agreed at $1.225 million ($1 million in 2025 with a $2 million option and $225K buyout in 2026), Tonkin at $1 million for one year. But neither was a significant contributor for this season's team. I would basically view them as the equivalents to low-wattage free-agent signings from last year, like Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and in that vein, they are fine. Often, in cases like these, the agreement on a deal ahead of the tender deadline tells us the team was unwilling to tender them without getting cost certainty.

With six of seven bullpen spots all but spoken for between Tonkin, Topa, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Durán, it's very unlikely the Twins will be active on the bullpen front this offseason. Which is fine, because they have the makings of an elite unit. 

Raya, Adams Added to 40-Man Roster
Ahead of the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being exposed to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Minnesota selected two players: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. Raya was a no-brainer. Adams was a bit more surprising, but hardly a shock. 

The former is a highly-rated 22-year-old pitching prospect whose combination of proven performance, upside and proximity to MLB would have made him irresistible to Rule 5 talent hunters. The latter is a 24-year-old right-hander who could hardly be considered a top prospect, but whose ability to fill an immediate functional depth role is viewed as valuable. 

Since his addition to the 40-man roster nudges Adams into the Twins' future plans, he's worth learning more about. I wrote of the former sixth-rounder's appealing traits, including his durability: Adams leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched over the past three seasons.

With Raya and Adams aboard, the Twins' 40-man roster currently sits at 37. At the moment, it's slightly lopsided, with 21 pitchers and only 16 position players—and that's with two spots being occupied by Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Personally, I'd be surprised if both were still rostered at the start of spring training. One thing coming into focus is the fact that a bigger restructuring of the position-player group than we expected is probably looming.

Speas Signed to Minor-League Deal
The only signings we've seen from the Twins front office over the first month of the offseason were of the minor-league variety, and many were just bringing back 40-man roster casualties like Yunior Severino, Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte. However, one noteworthy outside pickup was righty reliever Alex Speas, who signed a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training.

The story on Speas: big fastball, reaching triple digits, and big control problems. Last year he spent time with four different organizations, posting a 12.13 ERA with a 45-to-43 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅔ innings at Triple-A while also making one appearance in the majors. (None of those numbers is a typo. Unfortunately.) He's a project, and one that many different teams have been keen to take a shot at, with little success so far. Turning 27 in March, the former second-round draft pick will be worth keeping an eye on as an intriguing bullpen longshot.

Trade Talks to Heat Up at Winter Meetings?
From my view, the Twins have a pretty credible, contending-caliber roster in place. Sure, you'd like to add a couple more bats, but as I look over the roster layout below, it strikes me as a club that could plausibly win the division. The problem, as you can see over on the right side, is that they are about $4 million over their budget by my (inexact) calculations. I've seen other estimates that put them close to $10 million above the $130 million threshold that ownership appears to have set. 

That means the Twins are going to need to find a way to unload some salary to meet the payroll mandate they have in place, and even more if they want to add meaningfully from outside. There's been plenty of buzz around Christian Vázquez and Chris Paddack as clear candidates to be moved. Other, weightier names like Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán have also been thrown around as possibilities on the more disruptive end. It really feels like everything is on the table here in a fascinating first offseason for Jeremy Zoll in the GM chair, officially second in command to the organization's head honcho Derek Falvey. 

What are you expecting to see?

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[tony&rodney]

There are opportunities to both improve the team and reduce salary. Money is not a sledgehammer crushing the hopes of the team for 2025. The Twins will almost certainly open the season with the highest payroll in the AL Central. Falvey needs to make it work by finding the teams who are open for transactions. 

On  a simple budget note, Chris Paddack has value to multiple teams at his $7.5 million contract for 2025, if all the Twins want is to get below $130M. We can be certain that teams are interested. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm curious how they will use their last 3 40 man spots, if NOTHING else changes.

My guess, just back of napkin;

A 1B

A Corner OF/DH/1B Bat

At least one more pitcher to either have someone start at AAA, or have that 40 man option start at AAA. All of that is fungible.

I've heard Dan Hayes mention Marc Canha. He along with a 1B would really help balance out the lineup. The other main thing I'd do for this offseason is turn off injuries in the settings menu :)

[mike8791]

Nick, always enjoy your columns but why bother on this subject?  We all know that Falvey will not do anything until the dust settles.  As was the case with his predecessor, Terry Ryan, he will do his dumpster diving in February when players/agents are getting desperate to sign with any major league time.  This year, with the team for sale, this pattern will be even more flagrant.  Maybe a salary dump or two with the addition of marginal returns that cannot be expected to change things very much.

What a more agressive GM would do is package some prospects with our infield surplus(Lee, Julian, Miranda - to name 3) to bring back a middle of the lineup bat and/or  a solid rotation arm.  This is what is is needed to appreciably change 2025 prospects.  Otherwise, a repeat of 2024 or worse is the more likely result, I am afraid.

[Cory Engelhardt]

33 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, always enjoy your columns but why bother on this subject?  We all know that Falvey will not do anything until the dust settles.  As was the case with his predecessor, Terry Ryan, he will do his dumpster diving in February when players/agents are getting desperate to sign with any major league time.  This year, with the team for sale, this pattern will be even more flagrant.  Maybe a salary dump or two with the addition of marginal returns that cannot be expected to change things very much.

What a more agressive GM would do is package some prospects with our infield surplus(Lee, Julian, Miranda - to name 3) to bring back a middle of the lineup bat and/or  a solid rotation arm.  This is what is is needed to appreciably change 2025 prospects.  Otherwise, a repeat of 2024 or worse is the more likely result, I am afraid.

Just saying, Falvey and this front office have been one of the more aggressive front offices in terms of making moves over the last 5 years or so.

 

[Doctor Gast]

What I hope will happen & what I expect will happen are 2 completely different ideas. Although our core to start this offseason isn't as good as last year, it's still pretty good. So a couple of minor essential trades like last offseason would fix it but like last offseason, I don't expect them to viably address these needs. I expect them to trade players we need to afford players we don't need just to say they did something & to feed the hype.  I'd hope they let our in-house players to grow in the less essential positions (cOF & 1B) & trade for at least a cheaper middle-of-the-rotation inning-eating SP to replace Paddack ($7.5M), 2 would even be better. $7.5M is cheap for Paddack so I'd hope they'd get something good for him even with the Fire Sale sign out. He'd be the easiest player to salary dump. I'd also push CO hard to convince them they could use Dobnak ($4M). A LHRP would also be nice & we desperately need a very good young MLB-ready catcher. We have the players & prospects we need to trade so let's do it. 

I don't expect them to do any of this. Falvey is absolutely terrible to initiate trades. But he's also the luckiest, that players do fall into his lap. Outside a miracle of Roki Sasaki fall into our laps or some FO offer a mutually beneficial trade, I expect maybe even worse than last year if they move Vazquez, and for years to come because the Twins has absolutely no foundation at catching. So what I expect even with a very promising core to again be out of contention but this time before the deadline. If we can't compete so why pay Correa & Lopez's salaries? We just as well blow everything up & add to an already bloated farm.

[gmwannabe]

I don't see the Twins dealing Vasquez because I don't believe they are willing to throw in any money to move him. Trading Paddock to a team needing starting pitching depth should net a prospect but i think the Twins keep him and trade Castro to get payroll where they need it to be.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

We just as well blow everything up & add to an already bloated farm.

If the Twins do this, the FO should be the first out the door IMO.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I differ with the article, I fully expect Kiersey to be on the team as our backup CF. Actually will play a lot for the oft injured Buxton. This is one move I'm not disappointed in at all. I'mnot expecting Santana back as I believe he will be spendier than we can do. So 1B will be a revolving door with in house options. I only see Paddock as being traded. With the price of ML starting pitching he should have some value and interest.

[TheLeviathan]

Spoiler alert....I wouldn't expect much more until February.  

[Nick Nelson]

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I differ with the article, I fully expect Kiersey to be on the team as our backup CF. Actually will play a lot for the oft injured Buxton. This is one move I'm not disappointed in at all. 

This may happen and I wouldn't hate it but one year ago the Twins basically rolled their eyes at the notion they would protect Keirsey from the Rule 5, and they didn't call him up this season until they had little choice in the matter, then gave him 14 plate appearances. I just don't get the sense they have much belief. He is cheap, though.

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

I'm not resigned. It's hard being patient at times as the front office historically has been one to not have rumors come out at all, then all of a sudden a move is announced out of nowhere.

I'll compare it to a home; they have good bones on the 26 man roster. Have to have health and some additions to it will help too. But they aren't starting from nothing.

I'd imagine more rumor will come out next week with the winter meetings. I wouldn't expect free agency to give much until January or February. But trades certainly will take place this offseason. It'll be fun to see what the opening day roster will look like.

[High heat]

The only thing at the Winter meetings I’m interested in is the rule 5 draft.  
Do the Twins select someone?  With the payroll situation do they think it’s the cheapest way to add a 1B option or RH outfielder or Long man?  Things you can usually find in the rule 5.  

There might be ground work set but recently not a lot of actual moves have come out during the winter meetings. 
 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

Almost a wishing/reverse psychology manner of looking at the current situation. I would think Falvey & Sons are on the clock. The end product will determine if their days in MLB are numbered or not. As such, despite my complete inability to relate to how these guys put a team together, we should expect to see at least two significant trades. Does Falvey have what it takes? We are waiting to find out.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

Agreed.  The reality is that none of us really knows the plan at this point.  It is certainly conceivable that some of Paddack, Vasquez, Castro are dealt at some point, but people sometimes wait for the free agent market to set the prices before they do that.  It is also conceivable (we have the prospect capital) that the Twins trade some prospects either separately or with the above mentioned players for something that the team could really use -- RH bat, LH arm, Catcher.  If I have learned anything watching the front office over the past few years, it's that they are anything but predictable.  They trade/acquire/sign when you least expect it and they do nothing when you most expect it. 

I too think that the team isn't in bad shape as it stands.  Of the players who are definitely leaving at this point, who are we really going to miss?  Maybe Carlos Santana, but that's probably it.  Most of the players are on the "up" sides of their career curve, so we should be able to expect some improved performances from some of them.  I would like them to acquire some additional talent that can have an immediate impact, but I'm not going to cry if they don't. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

I'm not resigned, I'm a proponent. Sorry everybody, I want to stand pat and wait this whole mess out.

A big move while also reducing salary almost certainly involves removing a good asset from this team in exchange for another team's less costly asset. I am not on board with that as ownership and therefore the front office is in flux. I don't want them making franchise altering decisions any longer as the motives now almost certainly will be geared toward presenting a pretty financial picture, and that doesn't typically have anything to do with presenting a pretty baseball team.

Though to be clear, I wouldn't consider trading Chris Paddock a big move. Go ahead, that doesn't bother me.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

I'm not resigned to anything, and something big is almost sure to happen.  I really struggle with having these conversations when the only factor that matters is the sale of the team.  We have absolutely no idea what is happening right now and had no idea what was going on the last few years. 

I get that its not great for a clicky-click business but we aren't going to know a single thing until its announced.  The front office and new GM have almost nothing to do with whatever it will be.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins do this, the FO should be the first out the door IMO.

For us having Correa, Lopez & the core that we had & not win, is reason enough for this FO to be out the door but not Falvey, he got a promotion! What good paying Correa & Lopez big bucks if Falvey can't field a competitive team by making the right trades?

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.

I'm expecting a package of 2 or 3 of the Twins top 20 prospects for one major addition. What I don't know is whether or not that's a BIG BAT with a couple 2 or 3 years of control, OR, a young catching prospect to team with Jeffers and make the move of Vazquez easier. I've been thinking Rushing from the Dodgers since they are set at catcher and have a couple of other young prospects coming up that are well considered. He lacks some polish, but the bat looks pretty legit, it's LH, and we're secure at catcher for the next few years between he and Jeffers. Of course, there are some other young catchers they could also look at. Rushing just makes the most sense to me. Again, a different big bat might be an option as well. I don't see both happing. That's just too much prospect capital going out for the good of the organization, and would be against the grain for Falvey.

You don't think Helman and/or Keirsey will remain on the 40 man much longer? I think they're a lock. There's still 3 spots open, the Twins aren't going to be adding more than 2-3-4 players from the outside at this point, and it's very possible either or both of Vazquez and Paddack are moved to create some $ room for additions. Plenty of room to keep Helman and Keirsey as backup OF/INF with some speed and defense and MAYBE some decent hitting if they finally get a chance.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

There are a host of opportunities out there right now. i just hope that Falvey didn't take his squad to South Africa for a safari and team building holiday. I mean the safaris are wonderful and team building is a swell idea. It just seems like he might want to be available this winter. Let's hope for two small trades that reduce payroll (Paddack, Vazquez) and a couple of sweet deals to add talent that also uses a glove or pitches.

[High heat]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm expecting a package of 2 or 3 of the Twins top 20 prospects for one major addition. What I don't know is whether or not that's a BIG BAT with a couple 2 or 3 years of control, OR, a young catching prospect to team with Jeffers and make the move of Vazquez easier. I've been thinking Rushing from the Dodgers since they are set at catcher and have a couple of other young prospects coming up that are well considered. He lacks some polish, but the bat looks pretty legit, it's LH, and we're secure at catcher for the next few years between he and Jeffers. Of course, there are some other young catchers they could also look at. Rushing just makes the most sense to me. Again, a different big bat might be an option as well. I don't see both happing. That's just too much prospect capital going out for the good of the organization, and would be against the grain for Falvey.

You don't think Helman and/or Keirsey will remain on the 40 man much longer? I think they're a lock. There's still 3 spots open, the Twins aren't going to be adding more than 2-3-4 players from the outside at this point, and it's very possible either or both of Vazquez and Paddack are moved to create some $ room for additions. Plenty of room to keep Helman and Keirsey as backup OF/INF with some speed and defense and MAYBE some decent hitting if they finally get a chance.

 

 

I have to agree with you.  I think Kersey replaces Margot role  and Helman replaces the Farmer role for a league minimum.  If they find other replacements maybe things change.  

[Parfigliano]

I don't get signing Tonkin.

[DocBauer]

6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I don't get signing Tonkin.

Because he's a cheap and semi-proven middle reliever who can chew up 2 innings at a time without, generally, letting the game get out of hand. Think SWR last season going 5 IP that are solid. Tonkin comes in for 1-2 innings and doesn't blow up. Then we get to the 8th and the heart of the pen takes over.

That's his role. It may be Topa's as well, but we'll see. Tonkin is nothing special. But a guy who can potentially eat a bunch of middle innings across a full season has value that you don't see in measurable stats.

And at $1M, if he's suddenly toast, he's also easy to DFA.

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey & Sons

Hmm ... has a better ring to it than Falvine. 

[CRF]

I don't expect anything to happen. It's going to be very quiet. Wake me just before the season starts.

[HoskenPowell]

LH pen arm and get Paddack or Castro down the road for the savings they are seeking.  Minor league flyers on some pen arms are always welcomed.  As hard as it is to get arms I would trade Castro 1st.   Everyone seems to list Vasquez as a trade chip but of the Twins need to eat half his salary there is no reason to trade him then.....He's a solid defensive catcher who ended up not all that far behind JEffers on offense.

[LambchoP]

My guess is Paddack is traded for a low level prospect in a salary dump, citing our "wealth of young rotation depth".

A few minor league RP with invites to spring training.

First base will be a revolving door of Miranda, Julien and anyone else already on the roster.

 

4rth outfielder and Buxton timeshare will be Keirsey and Martin.

With the Royals and Tigers likely improving this off-season, we may find ourselves in fourth place:(

[DJL44]

Kyle Higashioka contract at $6.75M per season sets the market rate for Christian Vazquez.

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, High heat said:

The only thing at the Winter meetings I’m interested in is the rule 5 draft.  

Here's a good preview article

Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Prospects Will Be Selected?