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You're The Twins GM! Plotting My Offseason: What’s that Smell? It's the Funk.


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Posted

Let’s walk down one path this smelly offseason can take, courtesy of the Twins Daily Payroll Tool. It’s time to make some moves, including at least one funky one.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

This series of articles is a primer on the release of our new "You're The Twins GM!" tool where you play the role of Derek Falvey and build your own Twins offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun!

Let’s first set the scene. The Twins have approximately $130 million to spend this season, so the limit for my exercise is $130 million (also, I broke my self-imposed limit, like a bad boy).

By my estimate, we’re starting at a payroll of $134.5 million, a number ownership probably wants us to get down from. But we also want to improve the team. The Twins have the following guaranteed contracts:

The Twins also have 11 players eligible for arbitration. I’ll be using MLB Trade Rumors’s estimates for their salaries. I will tender contracts to all arbitration-eligible players other than Michael Tonkin (estimated $1.5 million). If some other team throws me a fringy 18-year-old for his rights, I will take it, but otherwise, he’s a non-tender. Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart all remain Twins for an estimated $31.8 million.

The minimum salary in MLB for 2025 is $760,000. However, some minimum salary players get small raises and other miscellaneous bonuses, so for this exercise, every other player on the roster will get an estimated $800,000 salary.

Move 1: Trade Chris Paddack
Given the payroll constraints, finding trading partners will be key this offseason. You may believe otherwise, but I’m a firm believer that the Twins can move Paddack’s entire salary. I don’t believe it would net them a great prospect, but $7.5 million is a reasonable price for a player of his caliber and pedigree on the free market. Who could he get the Twins in return? Honestly, I don’t care; nor do I care where he goes. I’ve been operating under the assumption all offseason that the Sheriff is riding out of town, one way or another. Let’s just say he gets traded to the Red Sox, and the Twins get someone like catcher Nathan Hickey. Sure. Him.

$7.50 million removed from the 2024 payroll. Lost: Chris Paddack

Move 2: Trade Christian Vázquez and Get Messy with It
I told you there’d be funk. Here it is. Vázquez handles a pitching staff well enough to be a starting catcher. However, he’s not worth $10 million to the Twins, and he’s likely not worth that to other teams, either. A key for the Twins will likely be finding the team willing to take on the most salary and sending him there.

In recent years, Falvey has pulled off some trades that ranged from unorthodox to boneheaded, and even if they didn’t work, they were kinda fun. San Diego is a great trade partner here for several reasons. First, they need a catcher. The team soured on their former catcher of the future—Luis Campusano, who has four years of arbitration remaining—down the stretch in 2024, starting a tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz down the stretch. Both the veterans are now free agents, and the team needs a starting catcher to hold the spot warm until top prospect Ethan Salas is ready to roll.

Also, A.J. Preller trades like a madman. Like, no trade he could ever make would surprise me.

So here’s what I’m thinking. Send Vázquez to San Diego for the disgraced youngster Campusano and lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 33, had a bit of a messy year in 2024, losing a step from his stellar 2020 to 2023, but he kept his ERA under 4.00. Peralta, like Vázquez, has an annoying contract that might not justify his play, being owed $13.15 million over the next three years with opt-outs after each season. In 2025, he’s owed $4.25 million.

If Peralta gets back on track, he may opt out after the 2025 season, but if he struggles or is truly cooked, the Twins could be on the hook for $4.45 million of dead money for 2025 and 2026. It’s two bad contracts for questionable players. Add in a catcher with more team control, which, the Twins are in desperate need of a catcher they can turn to after Ryan Jeffers reaches free agency after 2026.

In my hypothesized world, the Twins would include some very young, high-variance prospects like Adrian Bohorquez (MLB Pipeline’s #29 Twins prospect) and Eduardo Beltre (23)—an archetype Preller loves to collect so that he himself can flip them when they start looking exciting. That’s the starting point, anyway. I could be talked into someone higher up the chain, including other high-variance players like Brandon Winokur (16) or Yasser Mercedes (14), a top-ten prospect like Gabriel Gonzalez (7) or one of the club's high-minors pitchers if I was convinced Campusano could be fixed—I just don't know what the league thinks of him right now. That's one of the reasons that efforts like these are fruitless to predict from the outside. Shoot, San Diego might be looking for international bonus pool money to make a run at Roki Sasaki, and the Twins are probably looking for reasons to not spend money in international free agency; add that if it helps!

If I don’t feel Campusano can be fixed, I’d scale back the this deal, but I might be interested in someone like Boston’s Connor Wong, who is also a decent catcher with team control and a top prospect (Kyle Teel) who could soon be taking his job. I'm willing to be a bit reckless in prospect capital if I can find a young, controllable catcher, even if he's just a run-of-the-mill piece, given the Twins' lack of depth at the spot. However, if I can't find someone, I'd just throw some money at a low-end backup veteran catcher to prevent Jeffers and Jair Camargo (whom I have not been sold on yet) being the only catching options.

If Peralta doesn't opt out, in this hypothetical scenario, San Diego would pay $1 million per year of Peralta’s contract and $0.5 of Campusano’s estimated $1.7 million in 2025.

I would be stunned if this exact trade happened, but I have the feeling that if Vázquez is moved, it won’t be in a total salary dump. Hopefully the club can find a way to get really creative.

$5.55 million removed from the payroll. Lost: Christian Vázquez. Added: Wandy Peralta, Luis Campusano

Move 3: Trade for Yandy Díaz
First Wandy, now Yandy.

Let’s reallocate some of that salary that we just moved. The Rays have made it clear that they are open to trading Díaz, who will make $10 million this season and has a $12 million option for 2026, with no buyout money. If whatever team he’s playing for doesn’t want to bring him back, they can let him walk for free. However, if traded, his new team owes him an additional $1 million.

What would it take? That’s a good question. There are other first basemen available in free agency this offseason, so it’s not like Díaz is the only option among first basemen. My initial package would include high-minors pitching prospects Andrew Morris (6) and C.J. Culpepper (12), and then either catcher Ricardo Olivar (15) or outfielder Kala’i Rosario (19).

It’s time for the Twins to cash in their great pitching draft classes, as St. Paul probably has more pitchers than is reasonable right now. Ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins didn't protect Olivar or Rosario, so I would be interested in trading them if the team has any inkling that another club might try to snatch them away.

Does this do it? Maybe not, but it’s a place to start. I could be talked into building a package for Díaz for anything less than Luke Keaschall (3), especially if that led to Tampa kicking in a little salary. Ideally, the Twins could get the Rays to kick in $3 million (less than they paid to get Manuel Margot out of town, by the way).

$8 million added to the payroll ($7 million in salary, $1 million in trade assignment). Added: Yandy Díaz

Moves 4 & 5 (and 6): Fill Out the Bench
These two moves aren’t exciting at all, but I'd add a couple of (potentially) competent role players. First, Amed Rosario. Rosario is a utility player who’s frankly had an up-and-down career. Still, he’s a 29-year-old with positional flexibility, speed, and a good bat against lefties his entire career. I’d love to see him get a $2 million contract for 2025 with a $5 million option for 2026 if the Twins find something in him. A $500,000 buyout sounds good (it goes on this year’s ledger).

Second, I’d sign a bat-first righty outfielder. Now, this could be any number of dudes like Robbie Grossman, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, or whatever (if my scouts, of which I employ many, think they're not stew meat at this point in their careers, of course). There’s several of them, and one of them is going to be looking for a home in February. Throw $2 million at him and let him platoon with big, beefy boys Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Let's say it's Pham.

Honestly, I would be open to this bench spot being a lefty or an infielder, too. But they need to be able to hit. I guess that's the main thing here. Donovan Solano? I don't know, man, just find me someone who can play a corner spot or DH and is looking for a job in February.

However, this fifth move isn't a necessity. Don't spend money you don't need to; just backfill that spot with an internal option. Also, knowing when to cut the cord is critical to both fringe additions.

My last move would hopefully be free, but I’d try to find a way to bring in 25-year-old Cristian Pache on a minor league deal. Pache is a former top prospect who plays elite defense in center field but has struggled badly at the plate in his big-league career. He’s out of options, but he could still have a higher ceiling than someone like DaShawn Keirsey, and he’s right-handed. A Byron Buxton organization can’t have enough center field depth.

$4.5 million added to the payroll. Added: Amed Rosario, Tommy Pham, Cristian Pache (MiLB)

Please see my attached sheet for my estimate of how these moves would shake out payroll-wise. It would take some finagling, some negotiations going right, and some serious prospects, but I kind of like this roster. My final count is $130.85 million.

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Posted

I hate dealing withe Rays.  They normally win every trade they do when they are selling.  We did win the Ryan trade, but when they have a full offseason to trade and they are "selling" talent they normally win it in the end. 

Posted

Yandy Diaz, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Campusano can all hit if they are healthy and on their game. It is a ton of offense. Falvey, and most of Twins Daily, love an offense first roster. However, that is a significant number of DH's for one team to carry. They would all need to OPS near .900 to cover for their stationary poses on defense.

The bench looks fair though. Maybe Castro, Rosario, and Pham still are prime utility players. I can see that.

The Twins dealt a promising pitcher, Chase Petty, for Sonny Gray. I'm not sure why guys like Adrian Bohorquez and Eduardo Beltre or more gets moved for Yandy Diaz?

Interesting to read these guesses at roster builds. We are all just thrashing in the winter winds looking for a recipe that brings success to Target Field.

Posted

I'd also try to trade Paddack and Vasquez for minimum salary prospects. Maybe throw in Gabby Gonzalez if needed to get the other team to take on Vasquez's full contract. This would open up about 17.5 million. I say use it to sign Christian Walker. We'd get a first baseman who can hit with some pop and also play gold glove defense. Plus, he's a right handed hitter. This wouldn't leave any money leftover for a fourth outfielder, but I think we got it covered with some combo of Castro, Keirsey and Martin. After taking care of first base all we really need is a lefty reliever for our pen and I'd be pretty happy about our chances in 2025. Of course I'd like a good SP to allow Festa to start in AAA and I'd like a starting RH power hitting outfielder, but we have to be realistic....

Posted

I like the idea of trading for Diaz as well. Maybe we could trade Vasquez and some prospects for him since the rays need a catcher? Jacob Stallings to back up Jeffers.

Paddack for the best offer we can get. sign Boyd as a LH SP for some depth. 

Posted

I'm sorry Greggory, I'm not into funky. I'll hit only on one thing I don't like. If Campusano is broken Twins won't fix him & he won't catch Jeffers when he falls w/o a safety-net. Vazquez is expensive but he has a very valuable function, to stabilize the catching & pitching staff. Removing Vazquez & shuffling the expense to a less important function while disturbing the chemistry isn't worth it. It's the same creative formula that worked so terribly last season, I didn't like the smell then either.

BTW I still enjoyed your article.

Posted
32 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yandy Diaz, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Campusano can all hit if they are healthy and on their game. It is a ton of offense. Falvey, and most of Twins Daily, love an offense first roster. However, that is a significant number of DH's for one team to carry. They would all need to OPS near .900 to cover for their stationary poses on defense.

The bench looks fair though. Maybe Castro, Rosario, and Pham still are prime utility players. I can see that.

The Twins dealt a promising pitcher, Chase Petty, for Sonny Gray. I'm not sure why guys like Adrian Bohorquez and Eduardo Beltre or more gets moved for Yandy Diaz?

Interesting to read these guesses at roster builds. We are all just thrashing in the winter winds looking for a recipe that brings success to Target Field.

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. 

Just a general comment on the overall…….taking on Wandy Peralta & signing Duvall or Pham sound like good moves in 2022. I don’t see much improvement - none - with this roster. Yandy could be an interesting add - the prospect capital, if measured, is something an organization has to part with to improve. The Catcher move is not exciting if San Diego has given up on the guy.

Posted
5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. 

Yah, my point is a little raw but at some point the Twins will need to put players on the field who can turn routine grounders and fly balls into outs. The defense last summer was not major league and the results were inevitable from my seat and yet a fair number of people pointed to the pitchers who too often just threw double play ground balls and pop ups marked as singles and doubles on the official scorecard.

Posted
15 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I like the idea of trading for Diaz as well. Maybe we could trade Vasquez and some prospects for him since the rays need a catcher? Jacob Stallings to back up Jeffers.

Paddack for the best offer we can get. sign Boyd as a LH SP for some depth. 

TB loves their starting catcher Rortvedt, but they are looking for a decent backup. IMO they aren't interested in Vazquez.

Posted
28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. 

Just a general comment on the overall…….taking on Wandy Peralta & signing Duvall or Pham sound like good moves in 2022. I don’t see much improvement - none - with this roster. Yandy could be an interesting add - the prospect capital, if measured, is something an organization has to part with to improve. The Catcher move is not exciting if San Diego has given up on the guy.

It's like in '21, I was all over the Twins to replace Cave with Margot. In '21 we desperately needed someone to backup Buxton. '24 Buxton was healthier & we had much better in-house backups, Margot absolutely didn't make any sense.

Posted
28 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd also try to trade Paddack and Vasquez for minimum salary prospects. Maybe throw in Gabby Gonzalez if needed to get the other team to take on Vasquez's full contract. This would open up about 17.5 million. I say use it to sign Christian Walker. We'd get a first baseman who can hit with some pop and also play gold glove defense. Plus, he's a right handed hitter. This wouldn't leave any money leftover for a fourth outfielder, but I think we got it covered with some combo of Castro, Keirsey and Martin. After taking care of first base all we really need is a lefty reliever for our pen and I'd be pretty happy about our chances in 2025. Of course I'd like a good SP to allow Festa to start in AAA and I'd like a starting RH power hitting outfielder, but we have to be realistic....

I agree that for guessing what can be done, signing available FA’s is the easiest. Predicting trades (for who - giving up who) is extreme guesswork and probably fruitless. I just don’t see the Team signing anyone in FA for any double digit (millions) salary. (Lopez - Buxton - Correa total $73M) 

Trade for 1B Westburg of Orioles or Casas of Red Sox. Bring in real capable guy at a seriously reduced cost compared to Walker.

Trade for a young Catcher that can hit some.

My group of trade pieces due to their cost and UPSIDE for trade partners, at the surface, are these guys……….Castro - Jeffers - Matthews - Duran - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Paddack - Julien. I’m sure there may be interesting guys lower than these in the system……will leave that to the imagination.

Santana is a “FA reach” for a solution but Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching - he’s reasonable insurance - he could get Margot’s PH attempts from ‘24 and play first base 30-35% of the time……more if there’s an injury. $5.5M & he stays with a contender.

If trade emphasis really focuses on the right Catcher………seems if we move Jeffers and $4.7 M salary along with Castro and $6.3M salary to AZ, along with Z. Matthews, we could get back Moreno and take J. Montgomery off their hands….,(AZ pays $11M of his $25M owed). We flip Montgomery and Duran ($3.7M) and Paddack ($7.5M) to O’s or Boston for their first baseman. Get a Catcher and 1B going forward and save $22.2M ……these $ could be used a bunch of ways …… if Westburg is the add from O’s, he makes a few million immediately so the extra $$ are reduced.

Seems AZ is motivated to move Montgomery …… Moreno is a key guy for them so they need some real value back …….. I think something can be done there though.

Posted
20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, my point is a little raw but at some point the Twins will need to put players on the field who can turn routine grounders and fly balls into outs. The defense last summer was not major league and the results were inevitable from my seat and yet a fair number of people pointed to the pitchers who too often just threw double play ground balls and pop ups marked as singles and doubles on the official scorecard.

They could use better defensive play - for sure. Problem they had though was scoring runs the last 6 weeks. They were 17 games over .500 at that point and a bunch of that bad defense was already behind them……. guys like Tommy Pham aren’t going to help with the glove nor with his legs.

No perfect Teams but I like guys that are bat first nearly every time. Pham may be a fit but I doubt that out of Spring Training, maybe added later?

Posted

A real Funk suggestion here:

Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well!

Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time.

Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames.

Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.

Posted
20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A real Funk suggestion here:

Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well!

Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time.

Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames.

Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.

Why do I see so much infatuation with Lee?   The question to ask for the right now.  Is he worth more to us in a trade or waiting for potential?    Prospects are 50/50 iffy.  I would make Lee, Festa and Zebby available and see what we can get.

Posted
26 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

A real Funk suggestion here:

Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well!

Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time.

Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames.

Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.

I wonder what flexibility Falvey feels he has with impending new ownership? I doubt we'll see anything of major consequence, but hope I am wrong. With $94M in guaranteed contracts and an overall budget of $130M, we don't have much room to breathe here. Obviously what we need to the most is for Correa & Buxton to be on the field. The $50M we've got allocated to them has to pay off next year no matter what else we do.

Posted
1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, my point is a little raw but at some point the Twins will need to put players on the field who can turn routine grounders and fly balls into outs. The defense last summer was not major league and the results were inevitable from my seat and yet a fair number of people pointed to the pitchers who too often just threw double play ground balls and pop ups marked as singles and doubles on the official scorecard.

The offensive production was a significantly bigger issue than the defense last year.

Posted

I liked the plan in general and appreciate the time and effort that it took to pull it together.  I'm not so keen on taking on Campusano or Wandy-Rod.  I'm more of the opinion it's time to use some of the depth we have in the minors to make a few trades.  The point of arms piling up in St. Paul is a good one.  Move a few in a Vasquez or Paddack deal to get the trade partner to accept the entire salary of each.  With Vasquez and Paddack it isn't really what we get back, it's trimming the $17.5 million to be able to invest it elsewhere on the roster.

I agree with tony&rodney in his consistent stance of needing to get better defensively and more athletic.  Amed Rosario is a good example.  He's a 29 y/o vet who can play SS/2B as well as OF.  He doesn't hit with a lot of power but he makes contact consistently.  He can run and steal you some bases.  At $2 million he could have a place on our roster.  

For a cheaper than Tyler O'Neill $14-$15 million dollar contract for a RH bat in the corner OF Tommy Pham and Adam Duval make sense at about $2-$3 million per year.  Spotrac has Duval at $1.8 million. 

I'd still like to swing for the fences in a deal for a young catcher.  Rushing or Teel.  Without using BBTV it's even harder to come up with what might be considered a reasonable trade offer but I'll try to do that when I take a swing at the roster plan.

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

TB loves their starting catcher Rortvedt, but they are looking for a decent backup. IMO they aren't interested in Vazquez.

Do they love Rortvedt? Dude is a good defensive catcher, but he can't hit either. TB isn't interested in Vazquez because of the salary, but I doubt they're all that thrilled with a sore-kneed catcher whose slugging is lower than his on-base %.

Posted

Nice effort for the most part.   Diaz would be a good add, however the surplus of pitching the Twins may have was hard to build and should not be sacrificed.  The best teams rarely make a trade without getting a pitcher in return.  Tampa does an excellent job of building pitching depth so grab one.  Regarding the funky look of moving Vasquez... Don't.  I move Jeffers instead. 1) he brings a better return 2) grab a veteran defender to split time with V.  Twins lineup can afford the catcher position being a defense only spot I believe.

Posted
2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Do they love Rortvedt? Dude is a good defensive catcher, but he can't hit either. TB isn't interested in Vazquez because of the salary, but I doubt they're all that thrilled with a sore-kneed catcher whose slugging is lower than his on-base %.

I've tried to trade for Rortvedt on BTV several times & every time I do, I get comments (comments aren't that common) that TB loves Rortvedt & no way they'd trade him. That said they are interested in a backup catcher. More likely a good cheap one. Myself I'd check into Joey Bart if I were them.

Posted
2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Do they love Rortvedt? Dude is a good defensive catcher, but he can't hit either. TB isn't interested in Vazquez because of the salary, but I doubt they're all that thrilled with a sore-kneed catcher whose slugging is lower than his on-base %.

 

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've tried to trade for Rortvedt on BTV several times & every time I do, I get comments (comments aren't that common) that TB loves Rortvedt & no way they'd trade him. That said they are interested in a backup catcher. More likely a good cheap one. Myself I'd check into Joey Bart if I were them.

“Obviously with the full benefit of hindsight, especially so, the catching results and production last year did not meet our expectations. That’s on me, first and foremost."

"There’s some guys out there that can help us. More a matter of going through it and seeing where it ends up. One way or another, we have to have better production than what we had last year if we want to win more games than we did last year.”

Couple quotes from Erik Neander, President of baseball operations for the Tampa Bay Rays on 11/8/2024.

This article says they like Rortvedt but they're looking to upgrade the catching position, as seems pretty clear from the quotes from Neander. I don't think they'd be willing to take on Vazquez at his full contract, though. And since his bat is the significant question I wouldn't think he'd be the type of guy they'd be looking to pair with Rortvedt who's bat is also the significant question in his abilities. 

Posted

Looking at the roster, I'd say this is probably a 87-88 win team as constructed. The improvements over the current 84-85 win roster is Yandy Diaz over Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien on the 26 man, and Campusano over Vazquez.

This offseason plan probably operates more in the hypothetical realm than most by assuming Campusano isn't wanted by the Padres or Peralta and Diaz would be accepted by ownership. Still, it's not outlandish as a guideline.

Posted

One point to consider, especially in regard to trading with the Rays, is they are currently in revenue and location hell.  I follow Brodie Brazil on YT and he has been reporting about the mess with Tropicana Field and the new ballpark construction.  TB has already signed an agreement with the Yankees to rent out Steinbrenner Field in Tampa for 2025 and there is no guarantee that they will even fix the Trop as it's estimated to cost $56 million.  The Rays also have the same problem we do in terms of a TV contract with Diamond.  All of this to say they may likely be a more competent version of the A's until the new stadium is completed and they will likely not want to take on any money or contracts as the revenue will just not be there to support it, even with revenue sharing payments.  I'm not sure why no one has considered trading Dobnak.  While he does not command much money ($3M), we are talking about not taking on Tonkin's salary ($1.5 - 2M) due to the fact he costs too much.  We have enough pitching in STP to not need Dobnak as a spot starter.  See if you can find someone willing to take a flier on him for cash considerations.

Posted
8 hours ago, mickster said:

Why do I see so much infatuation with Lee?   The question to ask for the right now.  Is he worth more to us in a trade or waiting for potential?    Prospects are 50/50 iffy.  I would make Lee, Festa and Zebby available and see what we can get.

I have nearly zero affinity for Lee.

My comment was he/Julien/Keaschall would earn time at 2B based on performance. Seems pragmatic - right?

He’s the back-up at 3B & SS because he’s potentially on the bench & available.

Posted
15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

 

“Obviously with the full benefit of hindsight, especially so, the catching results and production last year did not meet our expectations. That’s on me, first and foremost."

"There’s some guys out there that can help us. More a matter of going through it and seeing where it ends up. One way or another, we have to have better production than what we had last year if we want to win more games than we did last year.”

Couple quotes from Erik Neander, President of baseball operations for the Tampa Bay Rays on 11/8/2024.

This article says they like Rortvedt but they're looking to upgrade the catching position, as seems pretty clear from the quotes from Neander. I don't think they'd be willing to take on Vazquez at his full contract, though. And since his bat is the significant question I wouldn't think he'd be the type of guy they'd be looking to pair with Rortvedt who's bat is also the significant question in his abilities. 

Thanks CP, I saw that article. After reading it, I'd hoped that they'd reconsider trading him. But to no avail, at least the fans still love him & appreciate what he does defensively. Rortvedt was hitting pretty darn good for a catcher the 1st half before crashing the second half. Maybe it was his knees that JM eluded to. Rortvedt can't do it all by himself & TB definitely needs someone much better to give Rortvedt more of a break.

Posted
4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks CP, I saw that article. After reading it, I'd hoped that they'd reconsider trading him. But to no avail, at least the fans still love him & appreciate what he does defensively. Rortvedt was hitting pretty darn good for a catcher the 1st half before crashing the second half. Maybe it was his knees that JM eluded to. Rortvedt can't do it all by himself & TB definitely needs someone much better to give Rortvedt more of a break.

Ben hit incredibly well in the first half before returning to career norms. It could have been his knees but the more straight forward answer is that that's who he is as a hitter considering it's who he's been his entire professional career. He's simply not a very good hitter. He had a 41 OPS+ his first season with the Twins and a 28 OPS+ in his stint with the Yankees. The outlier for Rortvedt was the first half last year, not the second.

If he can OPS .620ish like he did last year he's going to have a nice long career as a defensive specialist behind the plate. If he goes back to his major league norm of OPSing 460-500 he won't have a major league career. The chances of him hitting anywhere near what he did early in the year last year are very, very small. He had 2 insanely hot months and the rest were very bad. 

I know you like Ben. I'd like having him back in St Paul playing that Butera role of 3rd catcher who comes up when one of the 2 primary catchers gets hurt. But he's not a good choice for a primary catcher on a contending MLB team. The Rays are going to hope they can get him to slap the ball around some so he can OPS .600 and be a useful part of their team, but they are absolutely looking to upgrade on him. Vazquez is likely an upgrade on him. It'd be interesting if the Twins can find a prospect package that'd interest the Rays in a swap of the Vazquez and Diaz contracts.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Ben hit incredibly well in the first half before returning to career norms. It could have been his knees but the more straight forward answer is that that's who he is as a hitter considering it's who he's been his entire professional career. He's simply not a very good hitter. He had a 41 OPS+ his first season with the Twins and a 28 OPS+ in his stint with the Yankees. The outlier for Rortvedt was the first half last year, not the second.

If he can OPS .620ish like he did last year he's going to have a nice long career as a defensive specialist behind the plate. If he goes back to his major league norm of OPSing 460-500 he won't have a major league career. The chances of him hitting anywhere near what he did early in the year last year are very, very small. He had 2 insanely hot months and the rest were very bad. 

I know you like Ben. I'd like having him back in St Paul playing that Butera role of 3rd catcher who comes up when one of the 2 primary catchers gets hurt. But he's not a good choice for a primary catcher on a contending MLB team. The Rays are going to hope they can get him to slap the ball around some so he can OPS .600 and be a useful part of their team, but they are absolutely looking to upgrade on him. Vazquez is likely an upgrade on him. It'd be interesting if the Twins can find a prospect package that'd interest the Rays in a swap of the Vazquez and Diaz contracts.

I know you are a stats-only, forget about underlying conditions guy & slugging reigns supreme for you pertaining to catching. Rortvedt is not a slugger who didn't prosper under the NYY & MN "all or nothing type of hitting philosophy. Tanner Swanson (do you remember him?) loved Rortvedt's dynamic defense & insisted that he'd be included in the trade. While in NYY he was Cole's personal catcher.

Back to hitting. Rortvedt's hitting under a more friendly hitting philosophy at TB, he had a 1st half BA of .270 & OBP of .365 is more indicative of who he is than his time at NYY & MN. It's remarkable after an injury-plagued '23, he was able to be used as extensively as he was in the 1st half of '24 with TB & explains why his hitting cratered the 2nd half. Stating that Rortvedt is a 3rd string catcher is an insult & shows that you know nothing about catching. Your suggestion of moving Vazquez & putting more responsibility on Jeffers not only reinforces that idea but is also a recipe for disaster.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I know you are a stats-only, forget about underlying conditions guy & slugging reigns supreme for you pertaining to catching. Rortvedt is not a slugger who didn't prosper under the NYY & MN "all or nothing type of hitting philosophy. Tanner Swanson (do you remember him?) loved Rortvedt's dynamic defense & insisted that he'd be included in the trade. While in NYY he was Cole's personal catcher.

Back to hitting. Rortvedt's hitting under a more friendly hitting philosophy at TB, he had a 1st half BA of .270 & OBP of .365 is more indicative of who he is than his time at NYY & MN. It's remarkable after an injury-plagued '23, he was able to be used as extensively as he was in the 1st half of '24 with TB & explains why his hitting cratered the 2nd half. Stating that Rortvedt is a 3rd string catcher is an insult & shows that you know nothing about catching. Your suggestion of moving Vazquez & putting more responsibility on Jeffers not only reinforces that idea but is also a recipe for disaster.

It is possible to strongly state your position without denigrating another opinion. The chance that people agree is less than disagreement. Disagreement is ok or should be.

FWIW, I was a fan of Rortvedt as a back up catcher. The Twins didn't agree. I also like Vazquez but believe that money is a reality too, which makes Christian a tough choice for an AL Central type roster budget.

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