Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #9 Cory Lewis

[Jamie Cameron]

Our journey through the Minnesota Twins top prospects continues with number 9. This entry features the Twins minor league pitcher of the year from 2023.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

The Twins 2022 draft class has a chance to be one of their best in recent memory. After taking Brooks Lee and Connor Prielipp at the top of the class, Minnesota followed a now routine paradigm; stock up on college arms in the mid and late rounds and let their player development staff go to work. From the cluster of eight college pitchers the Twins picked between rounds four and 20, a quartet has emerged tied together by an unusual level of early success in the minors. Andrew Morris (round 4), Zebby Matthews (round 8), Cory Lewis (round 9), and C.J. Culpepper (round 13) have all reached the upper minors with at least a chance to start. That’s an outcome you’d sign up for every time.

Lewis was drafted out of UC Santa Barbara 264th overall and signed for a little under slot at $140,000. In 2023, his first full season as a professional, Lewis saw both levels of A ball, posting a 2.49 ERA in 101 innings, striking out 118 in the process, setting Lewis up for a AA debut in 2024. Unfortunately, the start of his season was delayed by a shoulder strain. He ultimately debuted in Wichita on June 12th. Lewis continued the excellent start to his pro career, managing a 2.55 ERA in 79 innings while striking out 27% of hitters and walking 12.2%. He finished the season with a five inning debut in AAA for St. Paul, putting his name in the mix for a 2025 debut with the Twins.

What’s to Like?
Lewis stands at 6’5, 220 pounds and has the frame to handle the workload of a starting pitcher. He moves well on the mound and has a relatively effortless delivery with good extension, releasing the ball from a vertical slot. Lewis’ fastball has strengths and limitations that balance each other out. It’s light on velocity, hitting a maximum of 92.3 mph in his lone start for the Saints. Conversely, it has exceptional carry, averaging 19.7 inches of induced vertical break, helping it to generate plenty of miss when he locates it at the top of the zone. For secondary offerings, Lewis has a downer curveball, a sharp slider, and a changeup that has both vertical and horizontal action, but lacks the suddenness you might want to see it generate in its movement. None of those secondary pitches are plus, although the slider is the closest. 

Finally, Lewis has a legitimate knuckleball. Good enough to stand on its own, Lewis’ iteration averages ~400 rpms. He throws it hard, with a 90th percentile velocity of ~86 mph. There are two levels of deception here, both the knuckling action, and the velocity. While Lewis has an unusual pitch-mix and combination of traits, it’s hard to argue with the track record he’s established in his two full minor league seasons to date.

What’s Left to Work On?
There are three primary areas of focus for Lewis in 2025. First and foremost, fastball velocity. If Lewis can live in the 92-93 mph range with his fastball, it has the traits to be an above average pitch on which he can rely at the major league level. If it’s operating in the 89-91 mph range, I’m not sure that’s the case. Additionally, developing the effectiveness and consistency of one of his secondary offerings (beyond his knuckleball) is key. His slider is likely his best shot at an above average breaking ball. Continuing to hone this pitch gives him a chance at three above average pitches and a chance to continue to start. 

Finally, strike throwing. Lewis threw 62.9% strikes in 2024. While he may never be an elite strike thrower like Andrew Morris or Zebby Matthews, he has to continue to be able to get into leveraged counts against hitters, particularly as a pitcher who leans more towards pitchability than elite raw stuff. Throwing more strikes (~65-66%) will allow him to rely on his best pitches in counts and locations in which they make the most sense to attack with.

What’s Next?
Hopefully, a run of clean health and a nice long runway at AAA. After being named Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2023, Lewis missed valuable time at the beginning of 2024, to the point he flew under the radar due to the ascent of Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris. Lewis should have plenty of time to develop and adjust at AAA before he makes his major league debut sometime in 2025. His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter. Putting his shoulder troubles in the rearview mirror will give him the best chance at reaching his ceiling.

 

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[Craig Arko]

I like the knuckleball. 

[DJL44]

What does he need to work on to be successful? Location. He's a junkball pitcher so he needs to be able to pitch strikes while avoiding the middle of the strike zone.

Quote

His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter.

I don't know how that translates into being a top 10 prospect. That's freely available on the waiver wire.

[bean5302]

"The frame" "The velo" I wonder how many potential HoF players get overlooked or pigeonholed by MLB scouts and front office's treating baseball players as if they were NFL players? There is no correlation between pitcher size and durability.

In regard to Lewis, he's pretty hard to project right now. Very good K rate for AA, but came with a ton of walks as well. As he gets a few starts in at AAA, it should become more apparent whether or not his stuff will potentially play since AAA hitters are generally a lot more polished. I sure wish there were better pitching metrics available so he could be compared better against his competition level at a glance.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

What does he need to work on to be successful? Location. He's a junkball pitcher so he needs to be able to pitch strikes while avoiding the middle of the strike zone.

I don't know how that translates into being a top 10 prospect. That's freely available on the waiver wire.

I think it’s because we already have 6 or 7 starters in front of him.  He probably has the ceiling of a number three starter if not for the blockage.  You can never have too much pitching.  

[rdehring]

Interesting young man.  Sure aren't a lot of knuckleball pitchers out there.  Are there any that have three regular pitches along with a good knuckleball?  Could make him different enough to be good.

With one of Matthews/Festa and Morris (not including Varland, who I assume will be in the Twins pen) ahead of him, expect he will spend all of 2025 in St. Paul.  And that's ok.

I see Twins management taking a lot of hits, maybe they should get a bit of good will for the job they have done these past several years drafting and developing these pitchers.

 

[jmlease1]

There's a lot to like about Lewis: he handled A-ball with ease and while he was a little more up and down and less dominant in AA, by the end of the season he was starting to look like 2023 Lewis again. He looks like someone who knows how to pitch, and if he can keep the fastball around 91-93 mph then I think he's got a future.

I'm not going to put too much weight on 1 start in AAA; let's see how he does in a dozen before we decide what he is. He's behind guys like Festa and Matthews right now, but not that far behind, and I think he spends most of his time in AAA waiting for his chance. I'm a little worried about his durability: he's thrown over 100 innings exactly once in his entire career and missed real time in 2024. But he gets outs and doesn't give up piles of runs.

besides, dude a has a knuckleball. Can't wait to see it in MLB.

[DocBauer]

The K's per 9 and HITS per 9 are both good. The BB in 2024 definitely hurt him some, going from 2.9 to 4.6 last season. How much of that was misfiring and how much was shaking off some rust? Virtually every number from BB to AVG/OB/SLG, etc were better his last 90 days of 2024, meaning he was getting in a groove.

So maybe the control isn't really that big of an issue after all? Of course, you have to maintain that as well. 

It does seem to me getting his slider in to the plus category makes the biggest difference in regard to his future. Solid FB, a crazy and surprisingly hard knuckleball with a good slider could make him a middle starter.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What does he need to work on to be successful? Location. He's a junkball pitcher so he needs to be able to pitch strikes while avoiding the middle of the strike zone.

I don't know how that translates into being a top 10 prospect. That's freely available on the waiver wire.

back end starters are on teh waiver wire? 

Also, "likely" and "maybe he can be a lot more" are very different things. It is extremely likely that most of the guys that are the 6-10th best prospect on most teams never see the majors. 

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The K's per 9 and HITS per 9 are both good. The BB in 2024 definitely hurt him some, going from 2.9 to 4.6 last season. How much of that was misfiring and how much was shaking off some rust? Virtually every number from BB to AVG/OB/SLG, etc were better his last 90 days of 2024, meaning he was getting in a groove.

So maybe the control isn't really that big of an issue after all? Of course, you have to maintain that as well. 

It does seem to me getting his slider in to the plus category makes the biggest difference in regard to his future. Solid FB, a crazy and surprisingly hard knuckleball with a good slider could make him a middle starter.

I think the real question is whether or not he could get away with not throwing strikes while AA and lower levels like Drew Strotman. Strotman could throw strikes, but if he did, things took a nasty turn. In AAA, Lewis is probably going to have to throw strikes based on the scouting reports. If he throws strikes, will his pitches be put in the seats or into gloves? Lewis struck out 30.9% of hitters in the 2nd half at AA, but the BB rate didn't really drop as it stayed at 11.3%.

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

back end starters are on teh waiver wire? 

Also, "likely" and "maybe he can be a lot more" are very different things. It is extremely likely that most of the guys that are the 6-10th best prospect on most teams never see the majors. 

Randy Dobnak and Cole Irvin were both available on waivers last season. Dasan Hill has a lot more upside than "an up and down arm". If the ceiling is "barely a major leaguer" then the floor doesn't matter.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

Interesting young man.  Sure aren't a lot of knuckleball pitchers out there.  Are there any that have three regular pitches along with a good knuckleball?  Could make him different enough to be good.

With one of Matthews/Festa and Morris (not including Varland, who I assume will be in the Twins pen) ahead of him, expect he will spend all of 2025 in St. Paul.  And that's ok.

I see Twins management taking a lot of hits, maybe they should get a bit of good will for the job they have done these past several years drafting and developing these pitchers.

 

And Cade Povich made it up with the Orioles as well.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Randy Dobnak and Cole Irvin were both available on waivers last season. Dasan Hill has a lot more upside than "an up and down arm". If the ceiling is "barely a major leaguer" then the floor doesn't matter.

Neither of whom is a back end starter. Not even close at this point. Where did anyone say that was his ceiling?

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Neither of whom is a back end starter. Not even close at this point. Where did anyone say that was his ceiling?

Cole Irvin wasn't even close to a back end starter? He had a 4.07 ERA in 16 starts. 4.20 FIP. 4.49 xFIP. Sounds an awful lot like a back end starter to me. Absolutely horrid reliever, though.

"His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter."

The article seems to call back end starter his ceiling. Or at least his likely ceiling.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Cole Irvin wasn't even close to a back end starter? He had a 4.07 ERA in 16 starts. 4.20 FIP. 4.49 xFIP. Sounds an awful lot like a back end starter to me. Absolutely horrid reliever, though.

"His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter."

The article seems to call back end starter his ceiling. Or at least his likely ceiling.

Likely is not ceiling. I don't know how that is even debatable.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Likely is not ceiling. I don't know how that is even debatable.

When multiple options are provided the best option can very reasonably be referred to as the likely ceiling. Multiple options were provided. Reasonable people are referring to the better option as the likely ceiling. And its a very reasonable ceiling to be named for a pitcher with his velo and concern over control. Not seeing the controversy. The more controversial take on Cory Lewis at this point would be suggesting his likely ceiling is anything higher than back end starter.

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Cole Irvin wasn't even close to a back end starter? He had a 4.07 ERA in 16 starts. 4.20 FIP. 4.49 xFIP. Sounds an awful lot like a back end starter to me. Absolutely horrid reliever, though.

"His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter."

The article seems to call back end starter his ceiling. Or at least his likely ceiling.

Irvin made a poor decision signing a deal with a Korean team then, because back end starters still get a nice chunk of money on the open market these days. His numbers aren't terrible, but his situation is telling.

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

Irvin made a poor decision signing a deal with a Korean team then, because back end starters still get a nice chunk of money on the open market these days. His numbers aren't terrible, but his situation is telling.

It is honestly a very interesting decision to sign for $1 mil in Korea this early. Kyle Hendricks just got 2.5 from the Angels going into his age 35 season coming off a year where he had an ERA of nearly 6 in 24 starts. That's pretty telling, too. 

Can Martin Perez find a job? Michael Lorenzen? Colin Rea? Carlos Carrasco? Lance Lynn? Kyle Gibson? I'd guess more than 1 of those guys signs a major league deal for more than $1 mil.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/rangers-predicted-reunite-reliable-veteran-10-mullion-deal/506537aee68cbc61b66f7db7

Is Kyle Gibson with his 4.24 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP anything more than a back end starter? He's apparently going to get a $10 million deal. Even if it's half that. If I'm Cole Irvin I'm asking my agent why my numbers are basically the same and I'm playing in Korea for a million. I'd love to understand better why Cole Irvin signed in Korea for $1 mil already.

[LambchoP]

The Saints AAA rotation is shaping up to be pretty good this year with lots of potential call ups for SP. They should have

Festa, if he doesn't start in MN...

Mathews

Morris

Raya-

Lewis

Few more I can't quite remember. Hopefully some of these guys pan out and remain starters. Guys like Raya and Prelipp seem destined for the pen, which is always going to be a need as well.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

The Saints AAA rotation is shaping up to be pretty good this year with lots of potential call ups for SP. They should have

Festa, if he doesn't start in MN...

Mathews, Morris, Raya, Lewis

Few more I can't quite remember. 

Brent Headrick, Travis Adams, Christian MacLeod. They need to send Dobnak down to Double-A to give these guys innings.

[saviking]

How good is his knuckleball in terms of swings and misses, and hits? Does it come out of the same slot angle disguised as a fastball? I'm just thinking about Santana's slider. That one pitch made him great. Can Lewis' knuckleball do the same for him?

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think it’s because we already have 6 or 7 starters in front of him.  He probably has the ceiling of a number three starter if not for the blockage.  You can never have too much pitching.  

Depth gives the FO some flexibility if guys can out up numbers at AAA. All of a sudden SWR can be blended in a trade or Matthews or Lewis ………others need arms and if Team can get to 8-9 rostered guys that can start they can get better with trades for real players and not prospects.

[gman]

Seems like with lewis and others growing at 3A we have no need for scrap heap pitchers at 6-8 mil per year. We know some of the starters are going to pitch in the pen which again means we don't have to reach into the retread line for relief. Hopefully this all adds up to a #3 or better staff in a couple years. That should add up 85-95 wins with regularity. Teams always win with pitching has been the mantra for ever.

[cmoss84]

On 11/16/2024 at 5:53 AM, chpettit19 said:

It is honestly a very interesting decision to sign for $1 mil in Korea this early. Kyle Hendricks just got 2.5 from the Angels going into his age 35 season coming off a year where he had an ERA of nearly 6 in 24 starts. That's pretty telling, too. 

Can Martin Perez find a job? Michael Lorenzen? Colin Rea? Carlos Carrasco? Lance Lynn? Kyle Gibson? I'd guess more than 1 of those guys signs a major league deal for more than $1 mil.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/rangers-predicted-reunite-reliable-veteran-10-mullion-deal/506537aee68cbc61b66f7db7

Is Kyle Gibson with his 4.24 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP anything more than a back end starter? He's apparently going to get a $10 million deal. Even if it's half that. If I'm Cole Irvin I'm asking my agent why my numbers are basically the same and I'm playing in Korea for a million. I'd love to understand better why Cole Irvin signed in Korea for $1 mil already.

He REALLY likes Korean food. 

[twinstalker]

Much too low, plus, since I know you can't resist putting Marco Raya in the top 10 for some weird reason, does this mean you left Zebby out?  That makes no sense.  He's still a prospect.