Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #10 Gabriel Gonzalez

[Matthew Lenz]

Welcome to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects countdown for the 2024-2025 offseason. Today, we’re diving into the 10th-ranked prospect as voted on by the Twins Daily community!

Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily

Gabriel “Gabby” Gonzalez comes in as our No. 10 prospect. He was one of the four players acquired when the Twins sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners. He landed with the Mariners organization as a member of the 2021-2022 International Free Agency class out of Venezuela, signing for $1.3 million as a right-handed hitting outfielder. At the time of the deal last offseason, he was widely considered a top-100 prospect in all of baseball, despite only being 19 years old and posting average production in a third of a season at High-A.

Gabriel Gonzalez finished the 2023 season with a .718 OPS and 83 wRC+ for the Everett AquaSox being three and a half years younger than the average hitter, so it made sense for the Twins to start him at the same level with the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2024. Unfortunately, after a strong opening month, he would miss nearly two months with a lower back injury before rehabbing in the Complex League for a week and eventually getting back to Cedar Rapids.

A so-so season has led to Gonzalez falling down prospect lists, including out of most people's top 100. The corner outfielder posted a .706 OPS with minimal power and speed, but an impressive 15.6% strikeout rate and passable 7.0% walk rate. While these statistics don’t jump off the page, it is important to remember that at only 20 years old, he's still more than two years younger than the average hitter in High-A.

Limiting strikeouts at such a young age is largely a positive, but the quality of contact leaves more to be desired.  While he's carrying an above-average contact rate of 78%, nearly half of those balls are pounded into the ground, resulting in just four home runs and an iso of .124. I do wonder how much his back injury impacted his power output, as he hit nine home runs in 115 fewer plate appearances at the same level in 2023. “Ground and pound” was a profile he got away from in 2023 and will be something to monitor for Gonzalez as a contact-over-power hitter with minimal speed isn’t a profile you typically see out of a corner outfielder. In fact, I found his 2024 Baseball Prospectus scouting report and had to share their thoughts on his running ability, “[Gonzalez] already profiles in a corner spot due to below-average speed and a running gait that can best be described as scooting.” Yes, scooting.

At just 5’ 10” and 180 pounds, the one consistency among scouting reports are concerns about projectability. Given his short stature, relative to other professional athletes, there isn’t a lot of room for him to add mass to frame that could turn into additional power. His physical attributes combined with his position and free swinging approach, put an even stronger emphasis on his ability to make quality contact in order to be serviceable at the Big League level. At this point in his development, many scouting reports see him as someone who will specialize against left-handed hitting on the short side of a platoon. A profile that the Twins actually need right now in their corner outfield to go alongside Matt Wallner and or Trevor Larnach.

While it’s far too soon to pigeonhole Gonzalez, his most likely outcome seems to be a right-handed bench bat that can provide a little pop – if he can stop pounding the ball into the ground. Unfortunately, the Twins are only a year removed from him being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft which makes the 2025 season a crucial one for both parties. He will likely start the year at High-A again, where he will still be a year or so younger than the average hitter, and the Twins will be very hard pressed to not protect Gonzalez if he can return to his 2023 form. On the other hand, if he doesn’t improve his quality of contact he’ll continue to slide down prospect lists, possibly to the point where he’s too far away from contributing to be protected by the Twins or drafted in the Rule 5 Draft.

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[tony&rodney]

I'm eager to see how Gonzalez has improved to show promise in 2025. The hitting was not such a problem last year but his defense was lower than late career Josh Willingham or Delmon Young. I don't believe Gabriel has any trade value but he is young and can turn it around with improved play in 2025.

[Mike Sixel]

He's either really good next year, and needs to be protected, or he's ok and doesn't. Either way he's likely to be a Twin after next year 

I won't worry about him, as he was hurt last year. Let's see how he is when healthy. 

[Fatbat]

Not much to like or dislike. He does seem to be overrated as much as overlooked.

[bean5302]

It's strange to me how much of other sports scouting profiles and assumptions have found their way into baseball. Add size or mass for power? Hank Aaron was 6'0 and 180lbs. Byron Buxton has a huge power at 6'2 and 190lbs. Jackson Merrill blasted 24HR last year playing home games at Petco at 6'3 195lbs. Bobby Witt, Jr. is 6'1 and 200lbs. Guys don't need to be 6'4 and 300lbs with bodies like offensive linemen to hit the ball hard.

The heavier the player gets, the harder it is to be fast. The more weight a player adds, the more force they need to exert on their body to accelerate the bat. The more mass they add, the more pressure they put on their joints and skeletal system leading to injury and degenerative conditions. Baseball is not the NFL where mass is needed to avoid being the 8-ball shooting into the side pocket.

All that aside, Gonzalez didn't truly improve as much as you'd hope over last year. I'd sure hope he's younger than the average age of his level because guys aren't even prospects anymore if they're at average age. Even at 2.2yrs younger than average, Gonzalez is no longer young for a top prospect considering age/time in pro ball. He should have been sent to the AFL to baby step him towards AA next year. AA next year is where I agree with others in the sentiment it'll be a make or break year for him.

I think it's still early to have a "likely outcome" for a 20 year prospect playing in A+ ball.

[rdehring]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

It's strange to me how much of other sports scouting profiles and assumptions have found their way into baseball. Add size or mass for power? Hank Aaron was 6'0 and 180lbs. Byron Buxton has a huge power at 6'2 and 190lbs. Jackson Merrill blasted 24HR last year playing home games at Petco at 6'3 195lbs. Bobby Witt, Jr. is 6'1 and 200lbs. Guys don't need to be 6'4 and 300lbs with bodies like offensive linemen to hit the ball hard.

The heavier the player gets, the harder it is to be fast. The more weight a player adds, the more force they need to exert on their body to accelerate the bat. The more mass they add, the more pressure they put on their joints and skeletal system leading to injury and degenerative conditions. Baseball is not the NFL where mass is needed to avoid being the 8-ball shooting into the side pocket.

All that aside, Gonzalez didn't truly improve as much as you'd hope over last year. I'd sure hope he's younger than the average age of his level because guys aren't even prospects anymore if they're at average age. Even at 2.2yrs younger than average, Gonzalez is no longer young for a top prospect considering age/time in pro ball. He should have been sent to the AFL to baby step him towards AA next year. AA next year is where I agree with others in the sentiment it'll be a make or break year for him.

I think it's still early to have a "likely outcome" for a 20 year prospect playing in A+ ball.

Did a double take, bean, when you wrote that Henry Aaron was 6-0 and 180.  Went and checked baseball reference and yup, that's what it says.

On the other hand, the player I remember was a lot less than 180.  More like 160.  And 6-0 was a generous measurement.  Of course that was early in his career when he was a youngster in Milwaukee.

[High heat]

I don’t get how he is #10?  Still far away from the majors, not gaudy #s, difficult projecting body type, poor athleticism at a corner OF spot.  
 

How doesn’t Rosario profile better?  Atleast has BP power and a big arm and has atleast played at AAA and in the AZ fall league.  I’m not even a Rosario believer.  
 

Looks like we got sold on a pretty worthless package for Polanco 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, High heat said:

I don’t get how he is #10?  Still far away from the majors, not gaudy #s, difficult projecting body type, poor athleticism at a corner OF spot.  
 

How doesn’t Rosario profile better?  Atleast has BP power and a big arm and has atleast played at AAA and in the AZ fall league.  I’m not even a Rosario believer.  
 

Looks like we got sold on a pretty worthless package for Polanco 

Overall not a great return but still decent.  Its not as if Polanco did well this year at all.  

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, High heat said:

I don’t get how he is #10?  Still far away from the majors, not gaudy #s, difficult projecting body type, poor athleticism at a corner OF spot.  
 

How doesn’t Rosario profile better?  Atleast has BP power and a big arm and has atleast played at AAA and in the AZ fall league.  I’m not even a Rosario believer.  
 

Looks like we got sold on a pretty worthless package for Polanco 

Corner OF positions are worth 10 runs less than center field (1.0 WAR as a baseline). So a a utility player who can cover CF and be worth 1.0 WAR would be worth 0.0 WAR if you turned them into a corner only player.

Gonzalez has similar power to Rosario, historically speaking, and from a scouting perspective. Both have been in that .170 ISO land of moderate pop (like Rosario has been in the AFL), but Rosario's K rate projects very poorly considering his lack of true plus power. Add in the fact Rosario is not a good runner, and Gonzalez has more ceiling and more floor.

[DocBauer]

Not sure he's was worthy of being a top 100 a year ago with average speed and defense and questionable approach, (swings at everything), but he sure did have a good 2023.

I can't decide if he's a RH version of Eddie Rosario, only with fewer K's and more overall contact, or if he's an OF version of Miranda. Either way, good contact on hittable balls is excellent. And while not a large kid, he's already shown he's got some power. But like we've seen from Miranda when he's been hurt, weakly tapping out us really bad contact.

I see a future for him if his back is sound and he can look more like his 2019 self. But I also see other guys in the system that I think have higher ceilings. I don't think I'd have him at 10, but I also wouldn't want to downgrade him much considering youth and an injured plagued season in 2024.

[DJL44]

Bad defense and baserunning really limits his upside. He's going to need to hit like Josh Willingham.

[DJL44]

Pitchers who should be top 30 prospects who you haven't mentioned yet

Charlee Soto, Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Adrian Bohorquez, Cory Lewis, Travis Adams

Players in the top 10 you haven't mentioned yet: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper.

Looks like Bohorquez got overlooked.

[Doctor Gast]

Gonzales is overrated, IMO he's comparable to Austudillo in style, except Austudillo hustled, Gonzales doesn't, Austudillo has a better glove & made better contact, SO rate. I don't see him ever making the Twins. He hasn't done anything yet to put him in my top 20.

[mikelink45]

I have no idea how good he will be but as I read his size and stats I think of Jimmy Wynn - 160 pounds, 55 WAR.   He was called the Toy Cannon.   I hope we see Gabriel grow into that kind of player.  Too young to be critical of the things he can still learn. 

[chpettit19]

I'm not a fan of swing-at-everything guys. If they can teach him any semblance of plate discipline he has the contact skills to be a dangerous bat. But he hasn't shown it yet. Once you get to the upper minors it becomes much harder to succeed when swinging at everything. And it's REALLY hard to succeed in the majors that way. The key to his future is learning plate discipline. If he can do it 10 will look way too low and the Polanco trade will look foolish for the Mariners. If he can't 10 will look way too high and the Polanco trade will be a nothing burger.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, High heat said:

How doesn’t Rosario profile better?  Atleast has BP power and a big arm and has atleast played at AAA and in the AZ fall league.  I’m not even a Rosario believer.  
 

My thoughts exactly. Age is the only thing that puts Gonzalez higher than Rosario (and I've also not high on him). Just never saw what others did to put him in the top 100 last year.

[HerbieFan]

People keep barking about what we got for Polanco.  Do we all realize that if the Twins see him as valuable they can get him back....and cheap?  He's a FA.  Maybe HE'S the second basemen next year.

At the time the Twins thought they were getting a solid reliever in Topa and a Top 100 prospect in Gonzalez.  DeSclafini was to even out the money as a throw-in.  Hindsight is always 20-20.  But at the time I though it was a steal for one year of Polanco. 

[DocBauer]

26 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

People keep barking about what we got for Polanco.  Do we all realize that if the Twins see him as valuable they can get him back....and cheap?  He's a FA.  Maybe HE'S the second basemen next year.

At the time the Twins thought they were getting a solid reliever in Topa and a Top 100 prospect in Gonzalez.  DeSclafini was to even out the money as a throw-in.  Hindsight is always 20-20.  But at the time I though it was a steal for one year of Polanco. 

I think Topa is kept, and if his knee is sound...it was too end the year and he's got all offseason to further rest it...he's potentially a really solid middle man who might toss a couple innings at times, as he did for Seattle. Considering how badly the trade turned out overall for both sides, that's a bit of a win for the Twins.

Gonzalez makes the trade a steal if he can just learn to make GOOD contact by being more disciplined and not trying to hit EVERYTHING. Long way to go, but if he can do that, again IMO, he's sort of a cross between Eddie Rosario and Miranda. But he's a wait and see what he does healthy in 2025.

I think Polanco's knees are pretty shot at this point. And he's had numerous ankle injuries previously as well. IF he was signed...and I'm not advocating that...he'd be a 1B/DH/PH option, probably on a MILB deal.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Guys don't need to be 6'4 and 300lbs with bodies like offensive linemen to hit the ball hard.

Yes, indeed. Just like at Jose Altuve with the Astros. Tiny guy but he has 6 seasons with 20 or more homers, and in 2 of those seasons he hit over 30 dingers. As far as Gonzalez, I don't really know what to expect, but he is still young and there is always that intangible "potential."

[rdehring]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Not sure he's was worthy of being a top 100 a year ago with average speed and defense and questionable approach, (swings at everything), but he sure did have a good 2023.

I can't decide if he's a RH version of Eddie Rosario, only with fewer K's and more overall contact, or if he's an OF version of Miranda. Either way, good contact on hittable balls is excellent. And while not a large kid, he's already shown he's got some power. But like we've seen from Miranda when he's been hurt, weakly tapping out us really bad contact.

I see a future for him if his back is sound and he can look more like his 2019 self. But I also see other guys in the system that I think have higher ceilings. I don't think I'd have him at 10, but I also wouldn't want to downgrade him much considering youth and an injured plagued season in 2024.

Perhaps the best situation we can hope for Doc is that he gets a cup of coffee with the Twins late next year.  Then has a good spring in 2026 and plays some of the year with the Big Club.  Has a couple nice two week stretches where he does well, offering some hope.  Then as ERod and Jenkins both settle in, he has value so the Twins can use him in part of a package bringing in a meaningful part of their 2027 Championship team.  (I can have rose colored glasses, can't I?)

[Road trip]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's strange to me how much of other sports scouting profiles and assumptions have found their way into baseball. Add size or mass for power? Hank Aaron was 6'0 and 180lbs. Byron Buxton has a huge power at 6'2 and 190lbs. Jackson Merrill blasted 24HR last year playing home games at Petco at 6'3 195lbs. Bobby Witt, Jr. is 6'1 and 200lbs. Guys don't need to be 6'4 and 300lbs with bodies like offensive linemen to hit the ball hard.
 

And who could forget Kirby Puckett.  5'8", 178lbs according to BREF.  Yeah, he probably got heavier as he aged, but short stature didn't prevent him from hitting the ball hard.

Heck, even all-time lumberjack Harmon Killebrew was only 6'0, 195.

[HerbieFan]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I think Topa is kept, and if his knee is sound...it was too end the year and he's got all offseason to further rest it...he's potentially a really solid middle man who might toss a couple innings at times, as he did for Seattle. Considering how badly the trade turned out overall for both sides, that's a bit of a win for the Twins.

Gonzalez makes the trade a steal if he can just learn to make GOOD contact by being more disciplined and not trying to hit EVERYTHING. Long way to go, but if he can do that, again IMO, he's sort of a cross between Eddie Rosario and Miranda. But he's a wait and see what he does healthy in 2025.

I think Polanco's knees are pretty shot at this point. And he's had numerous ankle injuries previously as well. IF he was signed...and I'm not advocating that...he'd be a 1B/DH/PH option, probably on a MILB deal.

100% with you Doc.  Any production from Topa = win for the Twins.  Gonzalez could tip it even more so.  Polo was a great player for the Twins, but I agree that they don't need to bring him back.