Relievers on the Radar: Examining MLBTR's Predictions for Twins' Bullpen Spending

[Matthew Lenz]

The long wait for the arrival of MLB Trade Rumors’s Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is over! Who was predicted to land with the Twins? (Hint: It wasn’t Juan Soto.)

Image courtesy of Left: © John Geliebter-Imagn Images, Right: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is one of my favorite offseason releases, as we put on our GM caps and start creating the first drafts of our offseason blueprints. Before we get into the predictions, be reminded of a few things that may impact the Twins' spending this offseason:

• Prior to the next two pieces of news, Twins ownership stated that they would not actively look to decrease payroll but that they also don’t expect it to increase.
• They found a short-term solution to their broadcasting issues by offering a direct-to-consumer streaming option via MLB.tv.
• They announced they were exploring a sale of the team.

The Twins payroll for the 2024 season was about $125 million, and based on the three facts above, we can anticipate the 2025 payroll to come in around that same number. As of right now, if they were to tender all of their arbitration-eligible players, they are sitting around $135 million, leaving them with really no room to add free agents given the facts above. That is to say, if they plan on adding via free agency, then they’ll need to non-tender one or more of their arbitration-eligible players and/or make a trade.

While those decisions aren’t part of the predictions, two different writers with MLBTR have predicted a reliever to land with the Twins, so there must be some thought that they won’t just sit on their hands this offseason. Now, let’s look at the two players predicted to join the Twins.

#40 RP Andrew Kittredge
The MLBTR team predicts Kittredge to get a two-year, $14-million deal, and Anthony Franco sees the 34-year-old right-handed reliever as one of the solutions to the gaps in the Minnesota bullpen. Next year will be Kittredge’s ninth season in Major League Baseball. He's accrued 2.2 fWAR across 240 relief appearances and 15 starts to date. As a low- to medium-leverage reliever for much of his career, he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA, with a 3.78 FIP and a 16.3% K-BB rate, leveraging a slider and sinker more than 80% of the time.

Kittredge entered 2024 having missed a majority of the two previous seasons with various injuries, but bounced back nicely with a 2.80 ERA and matched his career K-BB rate across 70 ⅔ innings of relief for the St. Louis Cardinals. While his FIP may suggest some regression, he was in the 69th and 100th percentile for whiff and chase rates, respectively, suggesting a strikeout rate north of his career average (around 23%) may be in play moving forward.

#48 LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara
So, nobody formally predicted Ogasawara to the Twins, but they were mentioned at the end of his writeup—along with half a dozen other teams—as a team that “might feel this is a chance to land an Erick Fedde-esque bargain.” There are questions surrounding the 27-year-old left-handed starter, primarily around the quality of his offerings and his ability to be successful against Major League hitters. I would be absolutely stunned if Ogasawara was wearing Twins colors next season, but for what it’s worth, the team at MLBTR predicted him to earn $12 million over two years.

#50 RHP Spencer Turnbull
Another reliever? Well... maybe. This time, Steve Adams predicts an aging right-handed pitcher with an injury history to land with the Twins but only on a one-year, $7-million deal. Turnbull will be 32 by the time next season rolls around, and coming back from a lat strain that sidelined from the end of June to the end of the year. Prior to May of this past season, Turnbull had explicitly been a starter throughout his career, but he transitioned to the bullpen for two months prior to the season ending injury. I don’t see the Twins needing him in a starter’s role outside of maybe a spot start here and there, so I’d envision him coming out of the bullpen like he had for the Philadelphia Phillies.

While the sample is small, in 20 innings of relief, he posted a 4.05 ERA / 4.17 FIP and a 14.1% K-BB rate featuring a four-seam fastball and sweeper combo for more than 80% of his pitches. Unlike Kittredge, his Savant profile doesn’t hold promise that brighter days could be ahead, but it doesn’t suggest much regression either. I do wonder if better utilization of his pitch mix would lead to better results, he only threw his curveball nine percent of the time, yet it generated an opponent batting average of .067 whereas opponents hit .351 off his fastball.

If you’re let down after reading those predictions, I don’t know what to tell you. Given the constraints the front office is under, they will once again be bargain-hunting to fill the gaps in their bullpen. Typically, pitchers are in the bargain bin because they’re either not productive, have an injury history, or both. In this case, we have two solid relief options that come with injury risk. Neither of these guys would move the needle too much, but either would be a nice addition to the front end of the bullpen.

Do you like either of these names as relatively cheap fliers? Is there anyone else on the list you’d realistically think the Twins could target? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

I would be surprised to see any money spent on RP this offseason.  They have a decent RP1-4, the rest they will fill from within.

The team has bigger fish to fry.

[old nurse]

The Twins are going to continue their pattern of amassing 5-6 fringe arms that can throw 95 or have high spin rates. What they get may depend on what the other teams facing the demise of Diamond do. 

[tony&rodney]

It would shocking, frankly, to see the Twins sign a free agent reliever for more than $2M.

When I saw that the Twins were almost completely absent from the list of potential teams listed behind the various free agents I took it to mean that the writers may have some information that the Twins will be keeping costs down.

[bean5302]

LOL! The Twins are not giving any free agent relief pitcher a $6-7MM AAV contract. MLBTR is in outer space on this one.

[nicksaviking]

I'd be happy to get out from under Vazquez's contract.

But for the purpose of signing a middle reliever? Seems pointless.

[Doctor Gast]

44 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I would be surprised to see any money spent on RP this offseason.  They have a decent RP1-4, the rest they will fill from within.

The team has bigger fish to fry.

Same sentiments, FDG. Matthew said the bad word to me, "spending". Because spending you'll have to trade away someone you need, to afford someone you don't need. We are rated as the best bullpen in some circles, the BP isn't a top priority. Although IMO we could use a high-leverage LHRP but we can trade for that from our declining valued players we need to move.

[umterp23]

How many times do we have to use financial constraints in articles before it falls on deaf ears?  I think everyone is aware of the Budget, call it what it is, the Budget for 2025. 

What the Front Office does with the budget outlined for them will be difficult, but not impossible.  Bonehead trades for injured players for one has been major factor, our faces of the organization injured for almost as many games played vs not played is a factor and the list goes on.

FO needs to assign highest to lowest priorities and money allocations. If he means a trade, so be it, if it means playing our youth to see what you have so be it.  This year seams like a lame duck year with potential sale of team and having a strong financial balance sheet for prospective owners.

I expect trades at trade deadline being more realistic than any flashy off-season moves 

 

[Senior Softball Guy]

Oftentimes the answer is hiding in plain sight (Cole Sands).

[lake_guy]

Really odd thing about any of these contract forecasts is they all seemingly have their heads buried in the sand about the payroll impacts of the RSN implosion.  

[Blyleven2011]

And we let Hoffman walk after he had a good spring in 2023  with the twins ...

Do I feel let down , no I do not , it's just FO's way of doing business and you have to accept it  ...

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

And we let Hoffman walk after he had a good spring in 2023  with the twins ...

Do I feel let down , no I do not , it's just FO's way of doing business and you have to accept it  ...

Obviously you are pretty sore about it since you've mentioned it several times. It has nothing to do with quality bullpen arms in free agency. ( @Blyleven2011 
 has been falsely implicated by me. He is not the person I was thinking about so I shouldn't have accused you of this... @DocBauer is the culprit!!!! LOL)

Jeff Hoffman was passed over by all 30 teams in baseball, and he had to settle on a MiLB contract in 2023 with the Twins after being largely bad to terrible for his 134 appearances during his 7 year career.

Hoffman had an opt out if he didn't make the opening day roster, and told the Twins he was going to exercise it so the Twins released him a couple days early. Hoffman went on to sign what? Another MiLB deal with the Phillies with two opt outs. Hoffman was assigned to AAA and pitched there for the first month (unimpressively, I might add). Hoffman again exercised his opt out giving the Phillies a 48hr window to decide, and the Phillies decided to take a chance on him and his newly rebounded velocity as Philadelphia had tons of pitching injuries so why not?

Hoffman was viewed as MiLB roster filler with a ceiling of middle reliever. He opted to leave the Twins, and he accepted a similar deal elsewhere where he didn't get a shot at the MLB roster until making 9 unimpressive appearances in AAA and opting out there as well. Nobody, including the Phillies, had any idea he'd be so dominant.

Edited November 6, 2024 by bean5302
I was incorrect about attributing the recent out of the blue comments about Jeff Hoffman on the site to Blyleven2011.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

LOL! The Twins are not giving any free agent relief pitcher a $6-7MM AAV contract. MLBTR is in outer space on this one.

MLBTR is in a different galaxy if they think TC is offering any pitcher not already under team control(start or relief) $6-7 mil to sign.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Obviously you are pretty sore about it since you've mentioned it several times. It has nothing to do with quality bullpen arms in free agency.

Jeff Hoffman was passed over by all 30 teams in baseball, and he had to settle on a MiLB contract in 2023 with the Twins after being largely bad to terrible for his 134 appearances during his 7 year career.

Hoffman had an opt out if he didn't make the opening day roster, and told the Twins he was going to exercise it so the Twins released him a couple days early. Hoffman went on to sign what? Another MiLB deal with the Phillies with two opt outs. Hoffman was assigned to AAA and pitched there for the first month (unimpressively, I might add). Hoffman again exercised his opt out giving the Phillies a 48hr window to decide, and the Phillies decided to take a chance on him and his newly rebounded velocity as Philadelphia had tons of pitching injuries so why not?

Hoffman was viewed as MiLB roster filler with a ceiling of middle reliever. He opted to leave the Twins, and he accepted a similar deal elsewhere where he didn't get a shot at the MLB roster until making 9 unimpressive appearances in AAA and opting out there as well. Nobody, including the Phillies, had any idea he'd be so dominant.

When and where have I posted Hoffman , never and I'm not sore   !!!

Hoffman was released from the twins and found success  is all I was stating and we let him go for nothing  , now he's going to get his payday of 5 million a year   , good for him , another strikeout for the FO  ...  

FO always seem to let the wrong player go , it's been their MO for years to let them go for zilch in return  and you have to accept it is all i stated

He had good seasons and it worked out for him after the twins  , all it takes is someone not liking him to stick with a team and he moves on to another team ...

You have to much time on your hands with your spread sheets  ...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

When and where have I posted Hoffman , never and I'm not sore   !!!

That's my fault, I've seen Hoffman pop up in discussions out of the blue lately, and incorrectly remembered you being tied to it. I've corrected my post and found the TRUE perpetrator of this heinous act! haha

[Otaknam]

Turnbull makes sense because, cynically, the FO is enamored with pitchers with an injury history, hoping to get them on the cheap. Mahle, Paddock, Topa, DeSclifani, etc. 

[LambchoP]

I'd like Aroldis Chapman for a reliever. Him or some other strikeout type lefty. For SP I'd love if we could get Kikuchi on a two year deal maybe with an option out after this year. Mathew Boyd finally looked healthy and productive last year once he started pitching, he would probably be pretty cheap.

[Russ]

They can predict all they want.  The Twins always wait to grab what others have passed on.

[Fatbat]

* You get what you pay for. 

[Seansy]

Sadly, I doubt the Twins make any major league FA signings at all. They're already up against their payroll cap as is and even if they trade some combination of Paddack, Vasquez, and/or Castro it is more likely they add elsewhere than the BP. If they do add to the BP it's going to be in the bargain bin for 2-3M. Anything at 5M for the year is highly unlikely.

[jmlease1]

I have a suspicion that the free agent market will be down for all except the best of the best; the Twins are not the only team that will be adjusting their payrolls due to the collapse of the RSN market. And relievers will bear a lot of the brunt of this; the easiest spot to cut is to pass on the $5-8M middle reliever and try and fill internally with someone in your system. I'd bet that a bunch of these projected 2 year deals never come to fruition, more like 1 year deals at lower money.

Player's union is going to have to wrestle with their middle class getting squeezed again, but that's another issue.

If the twins can create some money to play with, they should be able to sign the kind of LHP they need o add to the bullpen. there should be some options. Will they pick the right one? I dunno, but I hope it's not a reclamation project coming off a significant arm injury. Just kind of done with that risk, especially with how many players we already have with injury histories.

[Cris E]

If they think they have enough for the rotation (Lopez Ryan Ober SWR Festa plus Zebby and other callow youth) they can consider Paddack and Varland for the bullpen. Considering how that went last year, maybe they keep Paddack for the rotation and let Festa marinate in St Paul. Anyway my point is I think Varland is finally headed to the pen in 25.

But that does not address the very real need for a lefty out there. Theilbar feels done, Funderburk was bad, and while that might have been due to injury there's no indication he's ready to step in like Caleb used to.

Some of you may feel the plan is to make some giant splash, but honestly I'm prepared to watch them wait for the market to collapse as the cable money vacuum sucks the air out of the winter. They might be able to grab a surprising number of decent guys at cut rates as a bunch of teams have to make choices. No idea who, but I will bet that no one on the Top 50 list gets signed in MIN.