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Twins Video
MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is one of my favorite offseason releases, as we put on our GM caps and start creating the first drafts of our offseason blueprints. Before we get into the predictions, be reminded of a few things that may impact the Twins' spending this offseason:
- Prior to the next two pieces of news, Twins ownership stated that they would not actively look to decrease payroll but that they also don’t expect it to increase.
- They found a short-term solution to their broadcasting issues by offering a direct-to-consumer streaming option via MLB.tv.
- They announced they were exploring a sale of the team.
The Twins payroll for the 2024 season was about $125 million, and based on the three facts above, we can anticipate the 2025 payroll to come in around that same number. As of right now, if they were to tender all of their arbitration-eligible players, they are sitting around $135 million, leaving them with really no room to add free agents given the facts above. That is to say, if they plan on adding via free agency, then they’ll need to non-tender one or more of their arbitration-eligible players and/or make a trade.
While those decisions aren’t part of the predictions, two different writers with MLBTR have predicted a reliever to land with the Twins, so there must be some thought that they won’t just sit on their hands this offseason. Now, let’s look at the two players predicted to join the Twins.
#40 RP Andrew Kittredge
The MLBTR team predicts Kittredge to get a two-year, $14-million deal, and Anthony Franco sees the 34-year-old right-handed reliever as one of the solutions to the gaps in the Minnesota bullpen. Next year will be Kittredge’s ninth season in Major League Baseball. He's accrued 2.2 fWAR across 240 relief appearances and 15 starts to date. As a low- to medium-leverage reliever for much of his career, he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA, with a 3.78 FIP and a 16.3% K-BB rate, leveraging a slider and sinker more than 80% of the time.
Kittredge entered 2024 having missed a majority of the two previous seasons with various injuries, but bounced back nicely with a 2.80 ERA and matched his career K-BB rate across 70 ⅔ innings of relief for the St. Louis Cardinals. While his FIP may suggest some regression, he was in the 69th and 100th percentile for whiff and chase rates, respectively, suggesting a strikeout rate north of his career average (around 23%) may be in play moving forward.
#48 LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara
So, nobody formally predicted Ogasawara to the Twins, but they were mentioned at the end of his writeup—along with half a dozen other teams—as a team that “might feel this is a chance to land an Erick Fedde-esque bargain.” There are questions surrounding the 27-year-old left-handed starter, primarily around the quality of his offerings and his ability to be successful against Major League hitters. I would be absolutely stunned if Ogasawara was wearing Twins colors next season, but for what it’s worth, the team at MLBTR predicted him to earn $12 million over two years.
#50 RHP Spencer Turnbull
Another reliever? Well... maybe. This time, Steve Adams predicts an aging right-handed pitcher with an injury history to land with the Twins but only on a one-year, $7-million deal. Turnbull will be 32 by the time next season rolls around, and coming back from a lat strain that sidelined from the end of June to the end of the year. Prior to May of this past season, Turnbull had explicitly been a starter throughout his career, but he transitioned to the bullpen for two months prior to the season ending injury. I don’t see the Twins needing him in a starter’s role outside of maybe a spot start here and there, so I’d envision him coming out of the bullpen like he had for the Philadelphia Phillies.
While the sample is small, in 20 innings of relief, he posted a 4.05 ERA / 4.17 FIP and a 14.1% K-BB rate featuring a four-seam fastball and sweeper combo for more than 80% of his pitches. Unlike Kittredge, his Savant profile doesn’t hold promise that brighter days could be ahead, but it doesn’t suggest much regression either. I do wonder if better utilization of his pitch mix would lead to better results, he only threw his curveball nine percent of the time, yet it generated an opponent batting average of .067 whereas opponents hit .351 off his fastball.
If you’re let down after reading those predictions, I don’t know what to tell you. Given the constraints the front office is under, they will once again be bargain-hunting to fill the gaps in their bullpen. Typically, pitchers are in the bargain bin because they’re either not productive, have an injury history, or both. In this case, we have two solid relief options that come with injury risk. Neither of these guys would move the needle too much, but either would be a nice addition to the front end of the bullpen.
Do you like either of these names as relatively cheap fliers? Is there anyone else on the list you’d realistically think the Twins could target? Join the conversation in the comments!
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