Losing Points: What Moments Cost the Twins the 2024 Season?

[Cody Christie]

After a thrilling 2023, expectations were high for the Twins entering this season. The team didn't meet them. So, what moment is most responsible for their downfall in 2024?

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

By the end of the 2024 season, the Minnesota Twins found themselves watching the playoffs from home. After a promising start, injuries and critical failures piled up, derailing what could have been a division-winning campaign. These moments, in particular, stand out as the turning points that cost the team a chance to defend their AL Central crown and return to October baseball.

Opening Day Omen
Every team starts the season with high hopes, but the Twins’ dreams took a gut punch right out of the gate when Royce Lewis suffered a right quad injury on Opening Day. The disappointment was amplified because he had homered in his first at-bat of the season. After an electrifying 2023 season, Lewis was expected to be a centerpiece of the lineup and one of the most dynamic players in the division.

Minnesota got off to a terrible start to the 2024 season with a 7-13 record, and one has to wonder if that ghastly stumble cost the team the playoffs. Lewis’s injury left a gaping hole at third base, disrupting the lineup’s balance. The Twins tried to patch things together, but the ripple effect was felt for months. Without Lewis’s bat and energy, Minnesota's offense struggled to find consistency, setting an ominous tone for the year.

Losing the Team’s MVP
Carlos Correa had been Minnesota’s heart and soul through the first half of 2024. His first-half performance was All-Star-caliber, potentially the best stretch of his career, reminding fans why the Twins made him their highest-paid player. He hit .308/.377/.520 with 16 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs in 75 games. But just days before the All-Star break, Correa went down with plantar fasciitis, which sidelined him for two months and effectively killed the Twins’ momentum heading into the second half.

His initial self-prognosis was positive, and there was some discussion about how quickly he could return to the field. However, the injury lingered, and Correa was forced to undergo painful treatments while also trying to find a cleat that worked with his injury. The Twins lacked a capable replacement and limped into and out of the break without their franchise player, their record slipping in the process.

Ryan’s Late-Summer Setback
Despite the above injuries, Minnesota played like one of baseball’s best teams after the rough start to the year. The rotation took its biggest hit at the beginning of August, when Joe Ryan was placed on the injured list with right triceps tightness. Ryan had been the team’s best starter for much of the season, with a career-best ERA+ (115) and WHIP (0.99). Other pitcher injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack forced the team to turn to younger internal options, and that can result in volatility.

Without Ryan, the Twins’ rotation depth was exposed. David Festa and Zebby Matthews were called upon, but the team limited their workload. This forced the bullpen to face more strain, and the team couldn’t find the same rhythm. Ryan’s injury came at the worst possible time, right when the Twins were pushing to stay in contention, and the pitching staff’s cracks began to show.

Alcalá’s Meltdown in Texas
Later in August, the Twins had a chance to finish off a four-game sweep against the Texas Rangers. After taking the first three games, they held a commanding 4-0 lead in the series finale, looking to head on to the next leg of their road trip riding high. But in a disastrous seventh inning, Jorge Alcalá allowed five runs, letting the Rangers storm back to take the lead in under 15 minutes. At the time, it was a bad loss, but it became the tipping point that started their second-half spiral.

This blown game symbolized the bullpen’s inconsistency throughout the season. Alcalá, who had been entrusted with high-leverage innings, failed to deliver. That loss deflated the team, as they never fully regained their footing in the following weeks, dropping series to division rivals and losing ground in the standings.

Buxton’s Second Half Absence
Byron Buxton has long been a player who can change a game on his own, but staying healthy has been his bugaboo. Buxton managed to play over 100 games in 2024, silencing some doubters, but injuries once again marred his second half. A leg injury in late July limited his availability, and he spent much of August and September on the injured list.

Minnesota missed Buxton’s offensive punch in the lineup and his tremendous defense in center field. Before the injury, he had posted an .862 OPS, with 42 extra-base hits in 90 games. Buxton and Correa returned to the lineup for the final fortnight, but it was too late. The Twins had fallen apart without their two stars, and the Tigers roared past them into playoff position. 

A Season Defined by “What Ifs”
The 2024 season will be remembered as one filled with "what ifs" for the Twins. What if Lewis hadn’t been injured on Opening Day? What if Correa had stayed healthy all year? What if Alcalá hadn’t imploded in Texas? What if Ryan and Buxton could have made it through the second half unscathed? Each of these injuries compounded the team’s struggles, and despite flashes of brilliance, the Twins couldn’t keep up with the competition.

Minnesota entered 2024 with expectations of reclaiming the division title, but these critical moments and injuries proved too much to overcome. Instead of playing in October, the team and its fans are left to wonder what could have been. As the offseason begins, the Twins must address the durability issues that haunted them this season. They have the talent to compete in the AL Central, but 2024 served as a harsh reminder that even the best-laid plans can be undone by the unpredictable nature of the game.

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Which moment is the biggest reason the Twins didn’t make the playoffs? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Fezig]

Rocco Baldelli's presence in the dugout should be listed.

[Doctor Wu]

Not sure about any certain moments, but the lack of production from Royce Lewis (among many others) in the second half was a big negative. Injuries that kept Correa and Ryan out of the lineup also hurt us down the stretch. Just too many little things that added up to a lot. 

[umterp23]

3 "Faces" of the organization as proclaimed by many do not play in a combined 216 games of the regular season.

Buxton 60, Correa 76 and Lewis 80

Not one single moment can be sole reason but 216 reasons are high on the list

[Hrbeks Divot]

I wouldn’t lump a single outing by Alcala in the same group as the rest of these. Sure we can look at a before and after snapshot of the team using that game as a demarcation point but I’ve heard that particular meltdown mentioned way too many times on these pages. Relief pitchers have bad outings all the time and the Twins still won that series. These are professionals. Good teams move on from bad losses all the time. And as for Alcala himself, he had a decent season although he faded in towards the latter part of the season like the rest of the team. I worried about many others in the bullpen a lot more than him.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree that there weren't per se moments by players that really caused our downfall. IMO the downfall came through the loss of chemistry which was especially notable down the stretch. Wasted roster spot on Margot. Not filling our obvious holes at the offseason & deadline, Beginning with a bad-hitting philosophy and then the needed turn-around left the team confused. Spent all our money on frivolous salaries. Mismanagement of Alcala. Unreasonable transition of Lewis to 2B without his approval. Being short of depth in the rotation led to being over-dependent on rookies & loss of Ryan. Everybody had injuries but the Twins lacked veteran leadership after Correa & Buxton spent an extended time on the IL.

[umterp23]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree that there weren't per se moments by players that really caused our downfall. IMO the downfall came through the loss of chemistry which was especially notable down the stretch. Wasted roster spot on Margot. Not filling our obvious holes at the offseason & deadline, Beginning with a bad-hitting philosophy and then the needed turn-around left the team confused. Spent all our money on frivolous salaries. Mismanagement of Alcala. Unreasonable transition of Lewis to 2B without his approval. Being short of depth in the rotation led to being over-dependent on rookies & loss of Ryan. Everybody had injuries but the Twins lacked veteran leadership after Correa & Buxton spent an extended time on the IL.

All good on comments but I want to point out that I agree on lack of veteran leadership even though many people praise so and so is a great clubhouse guy, leader etc.  I kind of always chuckle when I hear that because I'm not sure that can be measured.  When your two highest paid players are hurt for majority of the season, multiple seasons, assumption is they are supposed to be the leaders.  Not sure the team has veteran leaders and then the finger pointing starts.  Clubhouse chemistry when things aren't going well shows what kind of team you are.  Maybe we now know we have a bunch of individuals and not a Captain

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I wouldn’t lump a single outing by Alcala in the same group as the rest of these. Sure we can look at a before and after snapshot of the team using that game as a demarcation point but I’ve heard that particular meltdown mentioned way too many times on these pages. Relief pitchers have bad outings all the time and the Twins still won that series. These are professionals. Good teams move on from bad losses all the time. And as for Alcala himself, he had a decent season although he faded in towards the latter part of the season like the rest of the team. I worried about many others in the bullpen a lot more than him.

It wasn't Alcala alone, it was the incompetence of the way that game was managed that inflamed so many fans. Pitchers are gonna suck. When they do so rapidly, mitigation must happen rapidly too.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

3 "Faces" of the organization as proclaimed by many do not play in a combined 216 games of the regular season.

Buxton 60, Correa 76 and Lewis 80

Not one single moment can be sole reason but 216 reasons are high on the list

Along with 10 or so missed starts by Ryan & half a season from Paddack.

Varland being 0-3 in his first starts of the year with an ERA toward infinity didn’t help much either. Three weeks in our 6th guy (SWR) became the 5th guy and eventually the 3rd guy in the rotation.

Lee was hurt to start season - hurt again in middle of season. Farmer was apparently hurt until he got off IL around August 1. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s knee - Julien/Wallner forgetting how to hit over big stretches.

Many of the infield injuries pulled Castro out of the OF and pushed Margot on the diamond about twice as often as he should have been.

An awful lot of circumstances beyond “the bumbling Manager” that many want to blame.

We all realize a bunch of guys are going to miss time with injuries every year but dealing with this list, and being 17 games over .500 on August 16, was probably not sustainable for most clubs.

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It wasn't Alcala alone, it was the incompetence of the way that game was managed that inflamed so many fans. Pitchers are gonna suck. When they do so rapidly, mitigation must happen rapidly too.

9 pitches - 4 runs - tie game. Guy had a sub 2.00 ERA going into the outing. No reason to think as a Manager “you know” he’s not going to get anyone out w/o getting rocked  - gotta be fair. Be pissed - upset - disappointed - whatever…….the terrible pitching execution was on Alcala.

He had 2 outs and nobody on (2nd out after game became tied) ………since it was a tie game and your sub 2.00 ERA guy seems to have recovered, why not let him get the 3rd out and not burn another leverage guy…….maybe not a perfect course of action but it’s defendable. No crystal ball for the next and crushing HR.

That said, it didn’t sink the season. There’s a whole long list of poor execution and no production and maybe a couple bad decisions to follow.

Alcala pitched poorly again in some subsequent outings (not all) and he was eventually sent down. Again, he didn’t throw the offense into a tail spin - the Team left Texas having won 3 of 4 against defending Series Champs - it was a short term gut punch - that’s it, IMO.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, umterp23 said:

3 "Faces" of the organization as proclaimed by many do not play in a combined 216 games of the regular season.

Buxton 60, Correa 76 and Lewis 80

Not one single moment can be sole reason but 216 reasons are high on the list

Yep.  I've pointed this out in other posts.  Until these three decide they are serious and play 130+ games in unison (barring catastrophic injuries), this team will remain a pretender.  You didn't see the Royals lineup struggle with games played.  They had 5+ guys that went 130 games or more.  That's a pipe dream with Buxton, Correa, and Lewis every season.  Until those three (and they aren't the only ones) decide they "really want it," aka "want a playoff run beyond one game" and put in the effort and games during the season, they will continue to come up short.  Honestly, it's lack of will, laziness, and apathy.  I don't care what anybody here says, it's mostly that. The injury excuse is brought up CONSTANTLY on TD and by the players themselves, yet that didn't stop the Yankees, the Tigers, the Royals, the Guardians, etc.  Yet it stops the Twins every single year.  Hmmmm..... 

[rv78]

If we have to "start" somewhere let's go with the additions by the FO during the off-season. Another injured starter DeSclafani, a washed up Margot, hope and a prayer bullpen add-ons. Then Rocco's inability to set a lineup and wasted playing time, thinking rest somehow eliminates or lessens injury. Team philosophy of swinging for the fences. Poor fundamentals. Blah, Blah, Blah........ there isn't any one instance of Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Alcala or any other player that doomed this team. It started with poor management at the top and trickled down.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Along with 10 or so missed starts by Ryan & half a season from Paddack.

Varland being 0-3 in his first starts of the year with an ERA toward infinity didn’t help much either. Three weeks in our 6th guy (SWR) became the 5th guy and eventually the 3rd guy in the rotation.

Lee was hurt to start season - hurt again in middle of season. Farmer was apparently hurt until he got off IL around August 1. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s knee - Julien/Wallner forgetting how to hit over big stretches.

Many of the infield injuries pulled Castro out of the OF and pushed Margot on the diamond about twice as often as he should have been.

An awful lot of circumstances beyond “the bumbling Manager” that many want to blame.

We all realize a bunch of guys are going to miss time with injuries every year but dealing with this list, and being 17 games over .500 on August 16, was probably not sustainable for most clubs.

I would add, Margot forgetting how to field ,as he once did, till late Sept., and, being swept by the New York Yankees hits the Twins harder than they want to admit.

[NYCTK]

Trading for Margot was the moment the season was lost. More specifically, in ST when they realized he couldn't play defense anymore and knew they had no actual 4th OF and didn't make any effort to patch that massive hole. 

Everything else could be argued to be bad luck. But counting on Margot to be a contributing player for a team was when this team lost. 

[Linus]

100% the off-season. Other than the Santana signing it was a complete failure starting with the slashing of payroll continued by a series of bad decisions by Falvine. I kept waiting for one of our top three starters to get hurt as that was surely going to be a big problem. 

[umterp23]

The 4 game Guardian series in September was the death nail.  Twins were 2 bad innings away from being up 3-0 in the series but lost by one run in all 3 losses.  Tough to watch and tough pill to swallow.  

Jax gives up 2-run bomb in the 8th in game one and Henriquez blow 2-run lead in extra innings in game 3.  

Other contributors over 162 games for sure, but that series was final straw so to speak

[gman]

Ober VS KC early in the year.

March 31.   1 inning 9 hits. 8 runs 3 homers. 1 loss

May 29.      5 innings. 9hits. 6 runs. 3 homers. 1 loss

If Ober had his normal starts against KC the Twins would probably have won those two games and finished the season tied with KC.

He did pitch a 7 inning 1 hitter in September but by then it was too late.

[Parfigliano]

The teams platoon philosophy and philosophy of not allowing a starter to go 3 times through the opponents hitters.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Trading for Margot was the moment the season was lost. More specifically, in ST when they realized he couldn't play defense anymore and knew they had no actual 4th OF and didn't make any effort to patch that massive hole. 

Everything else could be argued to be bad luck. But counting on Margot to be a contributing player for a team was when this team lost. 

The offseason as a whole. But I’d say the moment it was lost was when the owners said they were reducing payroll.

[ashbury]

Game 2 of the season.

Yes, the Twins won that game 5-1.

But if you look at the box score and the play by play, the seeds of the season failure were there.

I chose this game because Game 1 was versus a left-handed starter.  With the lefty-heavy batting roster, they were in Plan B mode at the beginning.  Kyle Farmer batted seventh; their DH named Margot batted ninth.

But Game 2 was versus a righty starter, and the season's plan was evident.  (With the exception of Royce Lewis who had inexplicably already injured himself performing a basic baseball play, going first-to-third on a single to right.)

Lugo had a good season in 2024.  In that particular game, he totally shut down the Twins offense.  This was not an isolated instance; Brady Singer, another good pitcher, did it again the next afternoon.  These two did not go on to achieve 0.00 ERAs for the entire season, but against the Twins in that series they did.

The reason the Twins won Game 2 was that they clobbered two of the Royals' bullpen members.  Two who went on to have very subpar seasons, not just against the Twins.

I don't know how to quantify this, but the impression I had all season long was of the Twins hitters fattening up on pitchers either having a bad day or who shouldn't be in the majors at all.  Teams face pitchers like that all the time of course (which is why I haven't figured out how to quantify it), but as the season goes on the arms that aren't performing tend to be sent to the minors or released.

And if you look at the top of that starting lineup, almost nothing went according to plan the rest of the season.  Julien imploded at bat and his suspect defense actually took a step backwards, so that by season's end he was a basket case.  Kirilloff was lost to injury for the umpteenth time.  Buxton lost significant playing time due to injury.  Correa lost significant playing time due to injury.  Wallner started out badly and had to be sent down by mid-April; also in this game he was taken out in favor of right-handed players (a tactic that I don't think panned out as well as the team's analytics department probably can argue for).  The bottom four of this game's batting order were placed correctly because their contributions over the full season were not the type that would lead a team to the postseason - the fact that three of them led the team in plate appearances speaks volumes.

I don't see moments such as Alcala's meltdown being nearly as significant, as the overall failure for the plan going into the season to pan out.  Game 2 is my moment.

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Game 2 of the season.

Yes, the Twins won that game 5-1.

But if you look at the box score and the play by play, the seeds of the season failure were there.

I chose this game because Game 1 was versus a left-handed starter.  With the lefty-heavy batting roster, they were in Plan B mode at the beginning.  Kyle Farmer batted seventh; their DH named Margot batted ninth.

But Game 2 was versus a righty starter, and the season's plan was evident.  (With the exception of Royce Lewis who had inexplicably already injured himself performing a basic baseball play, going first-to-third on a single to right.)

Lugo had a good season in 2024.  In that particular game, he totally shut down the Twins offense.  This was not an isolated instance; Brady Singer, another good pitcher, did it again the next afternoon.  These two did not go on to achieve 0.00 ERAs for the entire season, but against the Twins in that series they did.

The reason the Twins won Game 2 was that they clobbered two of the Royals' bullpen members.  Two who went on to have very subpar seasons, not just against the Twins.

I don't know how to quantify this, but the impression I had all season long was of the Twins hitters fattening up on pitchers either having a bad day or who shouldn't be in the majors at all.  Teams face pitchers like that all the time of course (which is why I haven't figured out how to quantify it), but as the season goes on the arms that aren't performing tend to be sent to the minors or released.

And if you look at the top of that starting lineup, almost nothing went according to plan the rest of the season.  Julien imploded at bat and his suspect defense actually took a step backwards, so that by season's end he was a basket case.  Kirilloff was lost to injury for the umpteenth time.  Buxton lost significant playing time due to injury.  Correa lost significant playing time due to injury.  Wallner started out badly and had to be sent down by mid-April; also in this game he was taken out in favor of right-handed players (a tactic that I don't think panned out as well as the team's analytics department probably can argue for).  The bottom four of this game's batting order were placed correctly because their contributions over the full season were not the type that would lead a team to the postseason - the fact that three of them led the team in plate appearances speaks volumes.

I don't see moments such as Alcala's meltdown being nearly as significant, as the overall failure for the plan going into the season to pan out.  Game 2 is my moment.

 

I would go with this more than 2:

It set the stage for later blow out against the Twins.

[Patzky]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

 being swept by the New York Yankees hits the Twins harder than they want to admit.

When your daddy gets home and spanks you after being away for two years, you remember.

[Blyleven2011]

From all the posts posted so far , they are valid points ...

i have to go with the offseason of 23 / 24 , , reducing payroll and deflating the fans optimizium  , the bad trades  , spring training preparation  (  the veterans working out on the practices fields and not in game situations enough to get game ready for regularseason )   ...

The plan continues to fail and that is on FO and manager and coaches  , we've seen how bad third base coach is , he sends slow runners to there deaths at home plate and he holds the fleet afoot runners at third  ...

[Coach]

15 hours ago, Fezig said:

Rocco Baldelli's presence in the dugout should be listed.

True.  The pitcher's (starting and relievers) outings were either too short or too long, leading to avoidable losses, especially early in the season. The choice to pinch hit Manny Margot endlessly, is unforgiveable.  BTW, dumpster diving for relievers trashed our season.

[DocBauer]

The OP is focused on the field. But IMO, what "cost the season" was ownership decided to slash the payroll. I honestly can't recall but ONE time in all of my years watching sports where a team...and it's fans...were subjected to a gut wrenching and seemingly oblivious "tear down" of hope and prosperity coming off a great season with high expectations for the next year. 

(For the record, the ONE example I can think of the Marlins winning the WS and then dismantling the team).

I don't blame the FO for Margot...who actually did his job against LHP and helped the Twins win a bunch of games despite ultimately being way over played...or the vast number of inexpensive signings that didn't turn out. With the limited funds available, they went for quantity vs quality, waiting for a couple darts to hit "20". Able to do things over, they might have gone a different route. Topa shoulda/coulda been a real help if not hurting his knee, Duarte looked like a potential find before his elbow suddenly exploded, Margot did his job in a limited role, but the FO TRIED to find help in the quantity of HOPE. 

I don't think Alcala belongs on this list at all. He's a sacrificial lamb because he was the poor performer in that 4th game against Texas, and things unravelled after that game for WHATEVER reason. I mean, for goodness sake, they took 3 of 4 games! Just because that game is the unfortunate benchmark of a nose dive should make Alcala a footnote, not someone who lead to a disastrous finish.

With Correa out, Buxton out, Ryan out, Lewis hurt, they still managed to "gut it out" for a good month and a half. But ULTIMATELY, there was just TOO MUCH to overcome with those guys out for so long. 

What I still don't understand is just HOW BAD the last 6 weeks were. I just can't wrap my head around almost EVERYONE slumping even when Correa and Buxton came back to attempt to "rally the troops". Just a couple more wins and they are in the playoffs. Maybe they get swept, maybe they surprise and rally and win a series. But "on the field", I think there were just too many injuries, and guys playing hurt, that a cascade affect happened.

If someone wants to place blame on anyone in particular, that's OK. But I just think too many games missed by top players, the loss of Ryan and depending too much on rookie pitchers, and an offensive collapse, were just too much to overcome. 

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

I would go with this more than 2:

It set the stage for later blow out against the Twins.

I did mention Singer's performance, but game three was less typical of the season as a whole in that Ober had a terrible game whereas usually he was pretty reliable.  Game 2, even as a win, was more emblematic of the trouble lying just below the surface.

[tony&rodney]

My two cents: Falvey had a rough offseason and his preferred roster had an expected level of 78-88 wins. They reached their goal more or less. Falvey might want to set a more challenging ceiling this offseason. 

[old nurse]

80 loss season so there are about 9 excuses, most of them could just as well be involving central division foes.  It was a season that looks like the would have continued their new playoff string had they made it there 

[Wizard11]

On 10/25/2024 at 5:19 AM, umterp23 said:

3 "Faces" of the organization as proclaimed by many do not play in a combined 216 games of the regular season.

Buxton 60, Correa 76 and Lewis 80

Not one single moment can be sole reason but 216 reasons are high on the list

Not sure where you came up with these numbers.  Fairly amusing that 9 people gave a thumbs up for a patently false post .  Buxton played in 102 games, Correa in 86, and Lewis in 82.  

[umterp23]

5 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

Not sure where you came up with these numbers.  Fairly amusing that 9 people gave a thumbs up for a patently false post .  Buxton played in 102 games, Correa in 86, and Lewis in 82.  

So 270 reasons to be specific.  One of the stats pages listed I was looking at was a point in time which I didn't realized.  Pretty much the same result though, not not he field enough to be the faces of the organization.