Ranking the Twins’ Worst Base Runners in 2024

[Cody Christie]

The Twins were among baseball’s worst baserunning teams during the 2024 season. Some of the worst culprits in the bad outs and shortfall in steals may surprise you.

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins were among baseball’s worst baserunning teams during the 2024 season. Some of the worst culprits in the bad outs and shortfall in steals may surprise you.

 

Many teams, like the Twins, try to focus on improving baserunning early in the season. However, the Twins have built a lineup that includes many players for whom baserunning isn’t a strong suit. It would be great if coaching and strategy could help a team improve on the base paths, but a team can't make giant strides without the appropriate personnel. Slow baserunners will continue to be slow baserunners, which held true for Minnesota throughout this season. 

One way to measure baserunning is through a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other baserunning plays (taking extra bases on hits, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. Minnesota had the fewest steals of any team last season, and had the fifth-worst BsR total. The Twins have multiple players who rate poorly on the base paths, including some who may be surprising. Here are the team's five worst base runners.

5. Royce Lewis
BsR: -1.1, Sprint Speed: 28th percentile
Lewis is the most surprising name on this list, because of the type of player he was early in his professional career. After the Twins drafted him, his sprint speed was one of the best in the minor leagues. He’s had two major knee surgeries, significantly impacting his speed and baserunning. In 2024, he also dealt with a quadricep strain and an adductor strain that might have hampered him. In 2022 and 2023, he had a sprint speed in the 74th percentile or higher. Lewis will likely not return to his pre-surgery speed, but he can be a smarter and better baserunner in 2025.

4. Trevor Larnach
BsR: -1.7, Sprint Speed: 22nd percentile
Larnach fits the mold of a burly corner outfielder, so the Twins aren’t looking for him to be a threat on the bases. However, there is room for him to improve his overall baserunning. His sprint speed was the lowest since his rookie campaign. He also dealt with a hamstring injury that limited him during the stretch run. Realistically, the Twins want Larnach to smack the ball into the gap or over the fence, so his base running doesn’t need to come into play often. Larnach and Matt Wallner are expected to get regular reps in the corner outfield next season, so the Twins can work with both players on their baserunning approach, even if it leads to small gains.

3. Kyle Farmer
BsR: -3.2, Sprint Speed: 16th percentile
Some fans likely view Farmer as a solid baserunner, since he plays up-the-middle defensive positions. However, he has never been a speedy runner, and those concerns came to the forefront in 2024. He posted a career-low success rate in advancing on balls in play (90%). His sprint speed was also below 26.0 ft/sec for the first time in his career. Other players on this list had lower-body injuries that impacted their sprint speed, but Farmer’s issues seem tied to his age. He will head to free agency, and the Twins might be able to replace him on the roster with a younger, more athletic option from inside the organization.

2. Christian Vázquez
BsR: -2.5, Sprint Speed: 4th percentile
Vázquez is a terrible baserunner, but that's generally expected of catchers. According to StatCast, he has provided a negative value with his legs in every season since 2017. He’s also significantly below average in attempting to advance and being successful when he does try. He’s a station-to-station runner who clogs up the bases for hitters at the top of the lineup. His sprint speed was below 25.0 ft/sec for the first time in his career, and he’s ranked near the bottom of the league in this category over the last two seasons. Vázquez is under contract for one more season, and it seems likely that Father Time will hinder his running even more. 

1. José Miranda
BsR: -3.5, Sprint Speed: 16th percentile
An argument can be made for Miranda or Vázquez to be at the top of this list. Vázquez has a worse sprint speed, but Miranda provided more negative BsR value. His sprint speed dropped from 26.6 ft/sec to 25.9 ft/sec. Among MLB third basemen, he ranked 79th in sprint speed. His sprint speed drop also resulted in his being less successful when trying to advance, with a 10% drop compared to 2023. Over the last two seasons, his up-and-down offensive performance makes it challenging for the team to know what role Miranda can fill in the future. He will never be an above-average runner, but he can be smarter on the bases and not cost the team runs. 

Farmer is the only name from the above list who isn’t expected to be part of the Twins’ roster next season, so the team might be poor on the bases again. However, there is room for improvement. Willi Castro saw a steep drop in steals last season as he fought through injury. The Twins can also use some younger, more athletic players on the bench, who might allow the team to be more aggressive on the bases. Even an incremental improvement would be welcome.

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What was most surprising from the names on the list? Who else should rank in the top five? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[thelanges5]

Twins were not good at running or stopping the run in 2024. Do we have a player type? Seems like there is some speed in the minors so maybe better days ahead. In the short term it’s the basics. Getting doubled off, Ill advised waves home etc. Can we at least be smart on the bases and not give away outs?

[FlyingFinn]

There's probably not a stat for 3rd base coaches but I would be really curious how often they wrongly sent runners home or stopped runners at 3rd (harder to judge). And does it affect the above #'s?

[Blyleven2011]

The most surprising name NOT on the list is KEPLER ...

yes he has speed  but has been aweful on the bases for quite sometime  ,  and  its ridiculous to add Vazquez to the list , not many catchers are fleet afoot ...

What bothers me about the players on the bases is their head isn't in the game  at all times  ...

1 . They forget how many outs ...

2 . They get picked off first base or thrown out at third base after double would have been sufficient enough to put them in scoring position ...

3 . They don't steal enough  ...

4 . This should actually be no. 1 , the players aren't coached properly to run the bases  , COACHING is a problem  ...

5 . Play smart on the bases , STANTON IN THE PLAYOFFS actually  was aware that the pitcher and infield  weren't paying attention to him on first base and he stole second , he hadn't stolen a base in 4 years  , Stanton is not the player he once was because of injuries , but if you play smart , even the slow afoot runners can steal bases ...

6 . They have a third base coach  that sends the slow runners to their death to home plate and holds the fast runners  at third base ( sorry I cant believe he is still our third base coach after so many blunders  ) ...

[DJL44]

The lack of speed is hurting them on the basepaths and on defense.

[DJL44]

I think Kyle Farmer should have been #1 on the list. He was so bad his own grandmother was admonishing him.

[USAFChief]

Baserunning...both on offense and defense, clearly is a low priority for this organization.

 

[jmlease1]

Larnach will probably be better next season with a full off-season to heal up the turf toe that he battled all year. But overall the twins are not great and frequently not aggressive baserunning. Some of that is injury related, some of that is an unwillingness to turn some guys loose. For example, Julien has good ability to swipe bags and has the minor league track record behind him (and he walks enough that he's certainly had opportunities). But they don't send him often.

 

[stringer bell]

Agree with several posts above. Speed helps, but being smart and alert on the bases is something every player should work on.

I’d love to see the club bring in players with more speed and that is the principal reason I want to see more of Martin, Keirsey Jr. and Helman.

Also agree that Kepler was so cautious that he neutralized his better than average speed.

Lewis might be better next year with a healthy off season. It seems pretty obvious that he was instructed not to push it after returning from injury. 

[Linus]

With this lineup we aren’t going to be a basestealing team. I just want the mistakes to be reduced. We gave away far too many outs by making fundamental mistakes on the bases. 

[mikelink45]

Baseball has made another shift to where the SB is now another integral part of baseball.  The Twins missed the memo.

[darwin22]

Where is Carlos Santana on this list?  He should at least warrant inclusion in the top (worst) 5

[tony&rodney]

Simple, the Twins need to make a few trades to increase team speed and defense. Slow guys clog the bases and are usually poor defenders as well, catchers being an exception.

[mnfireman]

19 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The most surprising name NOT on the list is KEPLER ...

yes he has speed  but has been aweful on the bases for quite sometime  ,  and  its ridiculous to add Vazquez to the list , not many catchers are fleet afoot ...

What bothers me about the players on the bases is their head isn't in the game  at all times  ...

1 . They forget how many outs ...

2 . They get picked off first base or thrown out at third base after double would have been sufficient enough to put them in scoring position ...

3 . They don't steal enough  ...

4 . This should actually be no. 1 , the players aren't coached properly to run the bases  , COACHING is a problem  ...

5 . Play smart on the bases , STANTON IN THE PLAYOFFS actually  was aware that the pitcher and infield  weren't paying attention to him on first base and he stole second , he hadn't stolen a base in 4 years  , Stanton is not the player he once was because of injuries , but if you play smart , even the slow afoot runners can steal bases ...

6 . They have a third base coach  that sends the slow runners to their death to home plate and holds the fast runners  at third base ( sorry I cant believe he is still our third base coach after so many blunders  ) ...

You mentioned Stanton's heads up baserunning, then Chisholm and Rizzo had baserunning blunders last night, which makes me think that proper baserunning may be a MLB-wide problem. Too much looking for 3 true outcomes, not enough work on fundamentals...

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

You mentioned Stanton's heads up baserunning, then Chisholm and Rizzo had baserunning blunders last night, which makes me think that proper baserunning may be a MLB-wide problem. Too much looking for 3 true outcomes, not enough work on fundamentals...

People have made baserunning mistakes for the past 150 years.

[jmlease1]

15 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Where is Carlos Santana on this list?  He should at least warrant inclusion in the top (worst) 5

Carlos swiped 4 bags without being caught and generally did a solid job on the basepaths for someone who is pretty dang slow.

[David Maro]

This team's mentality is swing for the fences not playing baseball.There are players on this roster who should be table setters,but aren't.I do remember Jeffers changing his approach with 2 strikes,never heard anyone else doing that.Then why would baserunning fundamentals be needed.It is the same thing with defense,when you rotate players all over the field,fundamentals aren't necessarily.

[Parfigliano]

22 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Where is Carlos Santana on this list?  He should at least warrant inclusion in the top (worst) 5

I'd say he was the worst.

[mrcharlie]

As I may be repeating another response here I do apologize in advance...                 This aspect of the Twins game is not solely on the shoulders of players.  Our base coaches are average at best, and just plain horrible much of the time.  The need to get their head out of their @$$ and in the game! 

[umterp23]

out of curiosity, looked up sprint speed via baseball savant.  

Buxton not surprising top of the list for and Vazquez last on the list.

Competitive Runs is non-HR balls hit but are home to 2b or 3b and 1b to 3b or home.  The don't calculate 2b to home when an extra base is the batted ball for them score on.  So basically any 2 or more bases from home on batter ball or running on 1st base on a batted ball. So with the that stat, top 5 are Castro, Santana, Miranda, Correa and Jeffers

I guess Santana wasn't brutal as some come to think.  Castro no surprise there, Jeffers as a catcher is no base path clogger like others.

The Bolts category is anytime  you topped out above 30ft/sec. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

...I guess Santana wasn't brutal as some come to think...

No, he's really bad. It's just the Twins as a ballclub as a whole are truly horribly, embarrassingly slow.
here are the breakouts of 10+ attempts by position and the MIN which is what I would consider the point at which a players speed is a significant fielding liability for the position.
C = 79 players, 23.1-28.9ft/sec median = 25.9ft/sec, min = 25.0 ft/sec
1B = 56 players, 24.0-28.6ft/sec median = 26.4ft/sec, min = 26.0 ft/sec
2B = 64 players, 24.7-29.9ft/sec median = 27.7ft/sec, min = 27.0 ft/sec
3B = 81 players, 25.1-29.3ft/sec median = 27.3ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec
SS = 58 players, 25.1-30.5ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 27.5 ft/sec
LF = 61 players, 26.1-30.0ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec
CF = 57 players, 26.5-30.1ft/sec median = 28.6ft/sec, min = 28.0 ft/sec
RF = 67 players, 26.0-29.8fts/ec median = 27.8ft/sec, min = 26.5ft/sec
 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, umterp23 said:

out of curiosity, looked up sprint speed via baseball savant.  

Buxton not surprising top of the list for and Vazquez last on the list.

Competitive Runs is non-HR balls hit but are home to 2b or 3b and 1b to 3b or home.  The don't calculate 2b to home when an extra base is the batted ball for them score on.  So basically any 2 or more bases from home on batter ball or running on 1st base on a batted ball. So with the that stat, top 5 are Castro, Santana, Miranda, Correa and Jeffers

I guess Santana wasn't brutal as some come to think.  Castro no surprise there, Jeffers as a catcher is no base path clogger like others.

The Bolts category is anytime  you topped out above 30ft/sec. 

That "competitive runs" category is simply the number of times they measured that player in situations which should result in a sprint. It's not any kind of measure of the quality of a baserunner. 

All this measures is sprint speed. "How fast does this player run when he's running full speed?"

The players with the higher "competitive runs" numbers reflect the players that were measured while running more often, not that they were good or bad baserunners.

 

[purplesoldier4u]

On 10/15/2024 at 12:30 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

4 . This should actually be no. 1 , the players aren't coached properly to run the bases  , COACHING is a problem  ...

YES!

[stringer bell]

Yeah, they have a lot of slow guys. There aren't a lot of guys you'd want to try to steal a base with. I guess the one guy that surprised me is Lee. I thought he had close to average speed. Guys with average speed can be good base runners. 

Was Diaz the coach responsible for base running?