Make It Official! Twins 4, Guardians 1: The Thing That Happens Didn't Happen This Time

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

I don't understand the criteria for the manager. I'm not disagreeing with you but I call him Rockhead and I get put on double secret probation. You call him Moron and it sounds nothing like his name and crickets. I say, Good for you!

Wow!

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Margot's record PHing streak is still intact. Wonder how far he can take it?

He’s definitely on a roll!

[Karbo]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

The bullpen chart is making me a little nervous; Jax, Duran, and Sands look a little spent.  How much are they available today, if at all in come cases?  Ober needs to go pretty deep to give them a rest.  Or should I say Rocco needs to LET Ober go deep if he is going good.  

Just more mis-management of the pen. Jax is probably out tonight, and Duran, after throwing 30 pitches last night, will at the least be very limited or not available tonight.

[Karbo]

29 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It was a win,  stressful as it was  ....

It was a good game until it wasn't  ...

Pinch hitting for wallner who had both rbi's at the time again is a head scratcher , Margot pinch hits for wallner because wallner is lefthanded and pitcher is  lefthanded , Margot continues to go hitless as a pinch hitter,  0 for 29  , I guess the twins like to break records , last year it was breaking the strikeout record for a season  ....

The twins , as the season winds down and wears down ( with injuries ) and barely in playoff  contention  need to analyze  the team for 2025 ...

They need to make a TO DO LIST  for 2025 ...

I'm sorry to say ( this roster is supposed to be major league caliber) but it seems like our players talent is being wasted , I emphasize that a player should never stop learning and coaches should never stop coaching  ...

We have quality talent that just isn't performing up to our expectations  or I'm sure the players expectations  too ...

the TO DO LIST  .  Teach these players the fundamentals of the game  , ( bunt , ( jeffers hits a scribbler down the third base line and reaches 1st base , yes an imitation of a bunt ) , steal bases , better base running , defense and a better approach at hitting for more consistency  at getting on base  , rbi's and runs do matter ..

all the above referenced reflects that of the coaching   , it's time for a change on coaching but FO might blame this all on injuries  , if we have the talent  that will be a lame excuse  once again   , players have talent , take that talent and make it a better talent  , the players need to keep learning at this level and not be wasted on bad coaching  ...

I know Rocco has the stats showing Margot isn't a viable option pinch hitting yet he keeps using him. He could have used Farmer to PH or even Vasky, but of course he goes with the rock headed move with Margot.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

It's also possible that you don't understand Levi's bit. 

In fairness, blind Rocco hate has never been a high-stress cognitive exercise.

[GCTF]

10 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

1.5 above

1.5 below

Go outside for the lunar eclipse and enjoy the show.

Worst. Haiku. Ever.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice win Twins.  Glad to see everyone now thinks we are going to the world series.  Amazing what one win will do.  Even though they have one of the worst won/lost records in baseball the past three weeks they will probably make the playoffs.  But the final weekend could be interesting to follow as the Twins play the Orioles, the Royals play the braves and Tigers play the White Sox.  Go Twins!!

Haven't seen anyone say we're WS bound, but can't we be happy about a win? I mean, dang.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice win Twins.  Glad to see everyone now thinks we are going to the world series.  Amazing what one win will do.  Even though they have one of the worst won/lost records in baseball the past three weeks they will probably make the playoffs.  But the final weekend could be interesting to follow as the Twins play the Orioles, the Royals play the braves and Tigers play the White Sox.  Go Twins!!

Haven't seen anyone say we're WS bound, but can't we be happy about a win? I mean, dang.

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

In 1966, Phil Regan went 14-1 in relief for the Dodgers, and was nicknamed "the vulture", allegedly by Sandy Koufax.  Second coming of THE VULTURE. Just keep him away from that sausage...

Bill Campbell, 1976. 17-5, with 20 saves.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s definitely on a roll!

Whats he at hitless in 29 straight?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

A good win. Nice job by Matthews; it would be awesome if he's figuring some things out and forces hitters to adjust to him down the stretch rather than him needing to adjust more.

Agreed. Great job by Matthews shutting down one of the best teams in baseball.

[insagt1]

The win kept us afloat for another day. Would be nice to string a couple together. I too would like to pass KC. But the playoffs hinge on Twins winning games, not hoping the other guys lose. White Sox may do to Detroit what Detroit did to the Twins the year the tigers were a shoo-in to break the '62 Mets record. So Tigers shouldn't view that last series as a slam dunk. O's-Twins finale should also be fun. Two teams that have struggled mightily for quite awhile. Somebody has to win!

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I know Rocco has the stats showing Margot isn't a viable option pinch hitting yet he keeps using him. He could have used Farmer to PH or even Vasky, but of course he goes with the rock headed move with Margot.

I think I can explain where Baldelli is coming from, while I don't agree with it.

30 some PAs is a nothing sample size.  People come up with all sorts of dumb splits about hitters based on arbitrary splits with small sample sizes.  Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances.

Where this breaks down somewhat is that is that pinch hitting isn't just an arbitrary split.  There is good reason to believe that pinch hit at bats are not exactly the same as any other at bat.  Conventional wisdom is that coming off the bench cold is hard, and The Book says that pinch hitting has an average penalty of around .024 wOBA, essentially negating your average platoon split.  It's a lot murkier trying to determine which guys are truly better at pinch hitting than others, but it's probably reasonable to believe that there are true differences in pinch hitting talent that are independent from overall talent.

For Margot, I care more about his 100 career PH appearance more than his 34 appearances this year.  And it doesn't get that much better.  Prior to this season he had a .584 OPS in PH appearances, and that has dropped to .441 including his 0-fer this season.  100 is still not a very big sample, given 100 more PH appearances, I would easily bet the over on a .441 OPS. But it's big enough that I adjust my priors on Margot; I think his PH penalty is much larger than the average hitter's, I think it's probably large enough that his platoon split against lefties is not that relevant, even if it is a much larger sample.

I suspect that Rocco is still weighing the platoon split and overall production more heavily, but I suspect that it's actually as much emotional and psychological as it is stats based.  We know that he likes to have his relievers get back into another game soon after a blow-up.  I think continuing to PH Margot is probably similar; he will give Margot every opportunity to work through it.

Last night he PH Margot and brought in Farmer as a defensive replacement the next inning.  He easily could have PH Farmer and then did a defensive switch to bring in Margot.  This feels like the no-brainer move to me at this point, but I think Rocco is still thinking about his player's psyches.  It seems the players generally like him, and I think stuff like that probably contributes.

I agree it just doesn't seem like a good analytic decision at this point, though.  I don't even think that saying Margot is 0 for 29 is good analytics, but taking everything into account, I don't see how Farmer couldn't be the better option in pretty much any situation.

[2wins87]

32 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Whats he at hitless in 29 straight?

I think it's 34 straight at bats and 40 PAs dating back to last year.  He's walked a few times, but that's it.

[big dog]

Tony Fiore, Twins 2002- 10 W, 3 L, 91 IP.  No saves.  ERA 3.16  FIP 4.76

He finished 8th in ROY voting, at age 30.  The next year he pitched 36 innings, was sent to the minors and never returned, washing out in three other organizations before retiring.

One of the great one-year wonders.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Margot's record PHing streak is still intact. Wonder how far he can take it?

As far as Rocco and FO  wants to ...

 

[LambchoP]

Pulling Wallner for Margot was infuriating! Wallner has already shown this year he can hit lefties, plus he had two hits already. Margot has shown her sucks! 0-29 pinch hitting. For a manager who goes off of numbers so much it makes no sense that he refuses to change up. Plus, after pinch hitting, we were stuck with Margot in right field for the last three innings in a tight game. Dude is horrible on defense and losing Wallner arm late in the game is just dumb. Rocco is lucky we won, no thanks to him....

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I think I can explain where Baldelli is coming from, while I don't agree with it.

30 some PAs is a nothing sample size.  People come up with all sorts of dumb splits about hitters based on arbitrary splits with small sample sizes.  Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances.

Where this breaks down somewhat is that is that pinch hitting isn't just an arbitrary split.  There is good reason to believe that pinch hit at bats are not exactly the same as any other at bat.  Conventional wisdom is that coming off the bench cold is hard, and The Book says that pinch hitting has an average penalty of around .024 wOBA, essentially negating your average platoon split.  It's a lot murkier trying to determine which guys are truly better at pinch hitting than others, but it's probably reasonable to believe that there are true differences in pinch hitting talent that are independent from overall talent.

For Margot, I care more about his 100 career PH appearance more than his 34 appearances this year.  And it doesn't get that much better.  Prior to this season he had a .584 OPS in PH appearances, and that has dropped to .441 including his 0-fer this season.  100 is still not a very big sample, given 100 more PH appearances, I would easily bet the over on a .441 OPS. But it's big enough that I adjust my priors on Margot; I think his PH penalty is much larger than the average hitter's, I think it's probably large enough that his platoon split against lefties is not that relevant, even if it is a much larger sample.

I suspect that Rocco is still weighing the platoon split and overall production more heavily, but I suspect that it's actually as much emotional and psychological as it is stats based.  We know that he likes to have his relievers get back into another game soon after a blow-up.  I think continuing to PH Margot is probably similar; he will give Margot every opportunity to work through it.

Last night he PH Margot and brought in Farmer as a defensive replacement the next inning.  He easily could have PH Farmer and then did a defensive switch to bring in Margot.  This feels like the no-brainer move to me at this point, but I think Rocco is still thinking about his player's psyches.  It seems the players generally like him, and I think stuff like that probably contributes.

I agree it just doesn't seem like a good analytic decision at this point, though.  I don't even think that saying Margot is 0 for 29 is good analytics, but taking everything into account, I don't see how Farmer couldn't be the better option in pretty much any situation.

I absolutely love this post. 

Fair... Balanced, Sensible and Well Explained. 

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

I think I can explain where Baldelli is coming from, while I don't agree with it.

30 some PAs is a nothing sample size.  People come up with all sorts of dumb splits about hitters based on arbitrary splits with small sample sizes.  Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances.

Where this breaks down somewhat is that is that pinch hitting isn't just an arbitrary split.  There is good reason to believe that pinch hit at bats are not exactly the same as any other at bat.  Conventional wisdom is that coming off the bench cold is hard, and The Book says that pinch hitting has an average penalty of around .024 wOBA, essentially negating your average platoon split.  It's a lot murkier trying to determine which guys are truly better at pinch hitting than others, but it's probably reasonable to believe that there are true differences in pinch hitting talent that are independent from overall talent.

For Margot, I care more about his 100 career PH appearance more than his 34 appearances this year.  And it doesn't get that much better.  Prior to this season he had a .584 OPS in PH appearances, and that has dropped to .441 including his 0-fer this season.  100 is still not a very big sample, given 100 more PH appearances, I would easily bet the over on a .441 OPS. But it's big enough that I adjust my priors on Margot; I think his PH penalty is much larger than the average hitter's, I think it's probably large enough that his platoon split against lefties is not that relevant, even if it is a much larger sample.

I suspect that Rocco is still weighing the platoon split and overall production more heavily, but I suspect that it's actually as much emotional and psychological as it is stats based.  We know that he likes to have his relievers get back into another game soon after a blow-up.  I think continuing to PH Margot is probably similar; he will give Margot every opportunity to work through it.

Last night he PH Margot and brought in Farmer as a defensive replacement the next inning.  He easily could have PH Farmer and then did a defensive switch to bring in Margot.  This feels like the no-brainer move to me at this point, but I think Rocco is still thinking about his player's psyches.  It seems the players generally like him, and I think stuff like that probably contributes.

I agree it just doesn't seem like a good analytic decision at this point, though.  I don't even think that saying Margot is 0 for 29 is good analytics, but taking everything into account, I don't see how Farmer couldn't be the better option in pretty much any situation.

The pinch hit also meant Margot predictably hitting against a RH reliever later in the game, as it often does.

 

[David Maro]

Nice win,but why did Lee and Julien waste at bats against Morgan.It was first at bats for them and 1 pitch and done.And of course Rocco sending Margot up to hit into a DP was the norm for him.He has had 6 years to learn how to become a manager with nothing learned.Managers have to have a feel for each and every game.At the time Wallner was the only one who seemed to be putting good at bats together.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I absolutely love this post. 

Fair... Balanced, Sensible and Well Explained. 

 

Thanks, obviously it's something that's been on my mind a bit lately

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Thanks, obviously it's something that's been on my mind a bit lately

It's been on my mind since the young lefties showed up last year and the pinch hitting started immediately afterwards.  

The only thing that makes sense in my mind is that the Twins front office is playing the long game in regards to sample size. 

30 scattered pinch hits is a small sample size... almost meaningless. So is 22 scattered AB's vs left handed pitchers by Larnach... almost meaningless. 

By playing the long game... it's like they are saying. Margot is supposed to be the better option here so we are going to keep doing it until the numbers come around and show it.

The problem with Margot is... the buzzer on the long game has gone off. We spent an entire year waiting for it and it didn't happen. He will go down as a minus in the pinch hit department. 

One last point... Every major league team has an analytics department. Every team has spreadsheets of information gathered from past results in an attempt to improve the odds of positive future results. Basically every team is looking at the same stuff. 

The differences between each organization is what data points are the most important. How do they weight each piece of data. The Twins obviously place more importance on the left/right splits with a heavy emphasis on keeping the left handed hitter away from left handed pitching. The left/right split seems to trump all other pieces of data because they are annoyingly consistent in its implementation. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I think I can explain where Baldelli is coming from, while I don't agree with it.

30 some PAs is a nothing sample size.  People come up with all sorts of dumb splits about hitters based on arbitrary splits with small sample sizes.  Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances.

Where this breaks down somewhat is that is that pinch hitting isn't just an arbitrary split.  There is good reason to believe that pinch hit at bats are not exactly the same as any other at bat.  Conventional wisdom is that coming off the bench cold is hard, and The Book says that pinch hitting has an average penalty of around .024 wOBA, essentially negating your average platoon split.  It's a lot murkier trying to determine which guys are truly better at pinch hitting than others, but it's probably reasonable to believe that there are true differences in pinch hitting talent that are independent from overall talent.

For Margot, I care more about his 100 career PH appearance more than his 34 appearances this year.  And it doesn't get that much better.  Prior to this season he had a .584 OPS in PH appearances, and that has dropped to .441 including his 0-fer this season.  100 is still not a very big sample, given 100 more PH appearances, I would easily bet the over on a .441 OPS. But it's big enough that I adjust my priors on Margot; I think his PH penalty is much larger than the average hitter's, I think it's probably large enough that his platoon split against lefties is not that relevant, even if it is a much larger sample.

I suspect that Rocco is still weighing the platoon split and overall production more heavily, but I suspect that it's actually as much emotional and psychological as it is stats based.  We know that he likes to have his relievers get back into another game soon after a blow-up.  I think continuing to PH Margot is probably similar; he will give Margot every opportunity to work through it.

Last night he PH Margot and brought in Farmer as a defensive replacement the next inning.  He easily could have PH Farmer and then did a defensive switch to bring in Margot.  This feels like the no-brainer move to me at this point, but I think Rocco is still thinking about his player's psyches.  It seems the players generally like him, and I think stuff like that probably contributes.

I agree it just doesn't seem like a good analytic decision at this point, though.  I don't even think that saying Margot is 0 for 29 is good analytics, but taking everything into account, I don't see how Farmer couldn't be the better option in pretty much any situation.

Whether I agree or not....I appreciate your effort here to be a fair and reasonable person.  Kudos sir, appreciate the insights!

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Player talent is necessarily measured in much bigger samples, hundreds, or preferably thousands of plate appearances.

If only Margot had some of that. 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins win 4-1 and a bench player near the end of his Twins career dominates the conversation.

How about Zebby Matthews holding the Guardians to one run? Did anyone else hear on the broadcast that Matthews was throwing a change up he learned after reaching the majors? I wasn’t sure if the change up itself was new or if it was a new type of change up for him. I started listening and finished watching but I believe this came from the radio team. Turns out he needed something to help him get major league left handed hitters out. In the first inning he got outs on his change up from Gimenez and Ramirez. He also threw several for balls. Nice adjustment but I have to wonder why he isn’t learning this pitch in the minors even if he doesn’t need it to get minor league left handed hitters out.

[Fezig]

22 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's also possible that you don't understand Levi's bit. 

That is a possibility. Perhaps you could explain the bit. Then again....maybe you don't understand my bit. And quite frankly, I don't understand my bit.

[Riverbrian]

53 minutes ago, Fezig said:

That is a possibility. Perhaps you could explain the bit. Then again....maybe you don't understand my bit. And quite frankly, I don't understand my bit.

Levi has been blaming Rocco for everything... things like toast landing on the peanut and jelly side when it hits the floor after dropped. He's blaming Rocco when they win. 

I believe he is making a statement that the forums of this website have been trampled by posters who think Rocco is to blame for nearly everything.  

 

[Fezig]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Levi has been blaming Rocco for everything... things like toast landing on the peanut and jelly side when it hits the floor after dropped. He's blaming Rocco when they win. 

I believe he is making a statement that the forums of this website have been trampled by posters who think Rocco is to blame for nearly everything.  

 

I think I've found who Levi is. 

https://x.com/Cle_Brendan52/status/1836881407114637480

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

I think I've found who Levi is. 

https://x.com/Cle_Brendan52/status/1836881407114637480

I don't think so. 

Levi only comes out at night.