Make It Official! Twins 9, Reds 2: Flipping the Script

[Hans Birkeland]

In a game the Twins had to win, they certainly set things up to mirror their recent losses, with a short start from a rookie pitcher and a sleepy lineup for the first five innings. They turned it on from there, though, with a big RBI single from the struggling Brooks Lee and a huge home run from human security blanket Carlos Santana.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: David Festa: 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (72 Pitches, 40 Strikes, 55.5%)
Home Runs: Carlos Santana (22)
Top 3 WPA: Santana (.252), Brooks Lee (.224), Ryan Jeffers (.162)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins were teetering once again, following two rough losses to a mediocre Reds team. Their stars, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, returned over the weekend, but couldn't overcome major blowups from Jorge Alcalá and Louie Varland. Prime Barry Bonds wouldn't have helped, either. Today, both players were given the day off to get them as fresh as possible for Monday's pivotal series in Cleveland.

Early on, it looked like David Festa was going to throw a gem. He was locating, and his stuff looked electric, aside from throwing the first pitch right off of a cyst on Jonathan India's elbow. India quickly pulled a Torii Hunter and stole second and advanced to third on a groundout from Elly De La Cruz. He tried to come home on the contact play, but was gunned down by Royce Lewis for the second out. Festa then struck out TJ Friedl on a nasty changeup to end the frame.

He got three more easy grounders in the second, but then struck out Noelvi Marte, India and De La Cruz in convincing fashion in the third. The second time through the lineup, however, was not as crisp as far as location. He left a changeup up to Tyler Stephenson and a slider on a platter to Spencer Steer in the fourth. Stephenson lined a sharp single and Steer lined a triple hard off the scoreboard for the game's first run. Ty France then delivered a sacrifice fly to double the deficit.

That looked tragically difficult to overcome, since this lineup has struggled against non-Angels pitching in recent weeks. Opposing Festa was the Reds' first-round pick from last year, Rhett Lowder. The rookie was selected two picks after the Twins took Walker Jenkins, so Reds fans are pretty jazzed about the guy, and he looked great. It is odd to see pitchability be a carrying trait for a young pitcher, but Lowder was as-advertised, pitching to all quadrants of the strike zone with a darting two-seamer, fading change and sweeping slider. The Twins made some hard contact in the first, including a Lewis 108-MPH single, and a Trevor Larnach 112-MPH lineout to end the inning.

But that's how the script has been lately. They couldn't get anything going for a while following that promising first inning, and Festa didn't end up getting the final out in the fourth. Determined not to give up the big hit and big inning that has plagued the Twins lately, Festa tried to be too fine and walked his last two batters. He exited with the bases loaded, and ask Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson how that has gone lately. Fortunately, in this case, Ronny Henriquez induced India to hit a grounder up the middle that Kyle Farmer made a nice play on, and that I would feel queasy imagining Edouard Julien attempting.

The Twins quickly got things going in their half of the fourth. Lewis led off with another sharp single, and Carlos Santana got him to third with a single of his own. With no outs, the Twins could afford to be conservative with their baserunning, but Lewis had no interest in that- Larnach dribbled a ball up the first base line, and first baseman Ty France gloved it, stepped on first and then threw to home to get Lewis in a rundown, a crushing double play. Fortunately, Willi Castro flipped a single on the next pitch, scoring Santana and getting something out of the inning.

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The Reds greeted Henriquez in the fifth with consecutive singles from De La Cruz and Stephenson. However, De La Cruz got greedy trying to stretch a bleeder up the middle into a double, and was thrown out by Castro, with an athletic, spinning tag from Brooks Lee securing the out. Henriquez was able to turn that good fortune into a scoreless inning, and the Twins were through five with only two runs allowed.

The Twins finally chased Lowder in the sixth, as the young righty appeared to tire, allowing a sharp lineout to Lewis and a double to right from Santana, followed by a walk to Larnach. Tony Santillan came in, struck out Willi Castro and got ahead of Ryan Jeffers 0-2. Jeffers hung in against some tough pitches and eventually got hold of a hanging slider, roping it to left for a game-tying double.

That brought up the struggling Lee, who looked bad on a couple of swings en route to a 2-2 count against the high-octane Santillan. He ended up getting on top of a high fastball, though, lacing it into center field for a game-breaking two-run single.

Cole Sands had entered the game in the sixth and delivered a scoreless frame with two strikeouts. He returned for the seventh, and that inning started forebodingly, as De La Cruz walked and was looking for his 100th career stolen base (he has not played two full seasons yet). Sands did a decent job of varying his delivery and De La Cruz got a mediocre jump. Jeffers threw high, but Farmer tagged the speedy Reds shortstop on the backside, and the out was called after a coach's challenge. Sands then struck out Stephenson (who is a menace when healthy) on a fastball in on his hands, and Steer popped out to end the inning.

Santana added some insurance in the seventh. After Lewis drew a two-out walk, the Twins first baseman lifted a Justin Wilson cutter off the facing of the second deck in left field.

Larnach followed with a ringing double off the lefty, Castro was hit by a pitch, and Jeffers singled to load the bases back up for Lee, who now has only three hits in his last 28 at-bats. All three have produced multiple RBIs, as Lee cleared the bases from the left side with a line shot down the first base line that ended up a triple. Not since Brandon Inge was still hobbling around for Detroit has a less productive hitter produced so many big hits in such a short time.

Jorge Alcalá threw two scoreless innings to seal the victory after bleaching his hair. He did look less tense, although the lead was established by the time he came in.

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
Performing
Contributing
Low Impact
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers 📈	Christian Vazquez 📈
1B	Carlos Santana 📈	Alex Kirilloff 📉	Jose Miranda 📉
2B	Edouard Julien 📉	Kyle Farmer 📈'
3B	Royce Lewis 📈
SS	Carlos Correa 📈	Brooks Lee 📈
LF	Matt Wallner 📈	Trevor Larnach 📈	Austin Martin 📉
CF	Byron Buxton 📈	Manuel Margot 📉	DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 📈
RF	Max Kepler 📉
UTIL	Willi Castro 📉	Michael Helman 📈
SP	Pablo Lopez 📈	Bailey Ober 📈	Joe Ryan 📉	Chris Paddack 📈
RSP	David Festa 📉	Zebby Matthews 📉	Simeon Woods Richardson 📉
CR	Jhoan Duran 📉	Griffin Jax 📈
SR	Brock Stewart 📉	Jorge Alcala 📉	Cole Sands 📈
MR	Caleb Thielbar 📈	Scott Blewett 📈	Michael Tonkin 📈	Louie Varland 📉
LR	Josh Winder 📉	Ronny Henriquez 📈	Randy Dobnak 📉	Diego Castillo 📈

Stray Notes:

-Matt Wallner hit leadoff and had some excellent at-bats with nothing to show for it.
-The Twins have suffered significant player injuries against the Reds in recent years. In 2020, Buxton was hit in the head by a Lucas Sims pitch and his presence in the postseason that year was depressing as a result. In 2021, Buxton was just returning from a hip injury and got hit on the hand by Tyler Mahle and missed two more months. In 2023, Correa sustained the rupture in his plantar fasciitis in Cincinnati, while Lewis strained his hamstring which put his postseason status in doubt.
-Larnach was really laboring around the bases today, with his turf toe injury still lingering. He barely made it to second on his seventh inning double.

What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (15-8, 3.88 ERA) faces off against the Guardians' Matthew Boyd (2-1, 2.18 ERA). Teams have thought they could "fix" Boyd for a decade now, and wouldn't you know it, the Guardians may have actually found something in him just in time to prop up their rotation for the stretch run. The Twins need a series win in the four game set in the worst way, not to catch Cleveland, but to maintain their tenuous hold on the sixth wild card spot.

Postgame Interviews:
(coming soon)
Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Alcalá	14	0	9	0	31	54
Sands	16	0	0	0	36	52
Thielbar	18	0	0	27	0	45
Blewett	0	0	0	41	0	41
Varland	0	0	0	29	0	29
Tonkin	0	0	28	0	0	28
Durán	22	0	0	0	0	22
Jax	20	0	0	0	0	20
Henríquez	0	0	0	0	17	17

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[Parfigliano]

Love.  Hate. Kid did it.

[RpR]

Lee saved a trip down for bit with this game.

[BH67]

How poetically fitting that the game ended with Ricky Vaughn striking out Clu Haywood. Here's hoping for "Ricky" that this enables him to turn the corner per his confidence.

[tampatwins]

Big W today. Now they gotta build on it since the season is determined by this week. One game at a time let’s go 

[Peter]

Huge huge huge much needed win!!!

[DJL44]

Larnach is clearly injured and probably shouldn't be playing except he's still hitting the ball. If Kepler returns, I'm expecting Larnach to go on the injured list.

Overall, a well-played game by the Twins. Fun to watch. Lee had a great day at the plate and in the field (nice sweep tag at 2B, good job going in the hole for a grounder).

Festa is not quite there yet. He has good stuff but doesn't always locate it well and he needs a 3rd pitch to tunnel off the others. Cole Sands was terrific today in relief.

[thelanges5]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Larnach is clearly injured and probably shouldn't be playing except he's still hitting the ball. If Kepler returns, I'm expecting Larnach to go on the injured list.

Overall, a well-played game by the Twins. Fun to watch. Lee had a great day at the plate and in the field (nice sweep tag at 2B, good job going in the hole for a grounder).

Festa is not quite there yet. He has good stuff but doesn't always locate it well and he needs a 3rd pitch to tunnel off the others. Cole Sands was terrific today in relief.

 

[AceWrigley]

Cole "The Vulture" Sands, 8-1 now.

[TheLeviathan]

We win this game if Rocco hadn't waited until Sunday to inform his team that winning means you need more runs than the other team.

[Hubie29]

Magic # 11.

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Magic # 11.

4,5 games up on Red Sox with a 3 game series this week - up 2-1 in season series. 2 end in Cleveland and 2 in Boston would really lift us up!!!!

Tigers & Mariners only 2.5 games back…….3 back in loss column - Twins own tiebreaker with both. Tigers headed to K.C. for 3 games. Mariners host Yankees for 3 games.

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Magic # 11.

[MMMordabito]

2 hours ago, Peter said:

Huge huge huge much needed win!!!

Vikings win was huger.

[William K Johnson]

I did not see the game, but the news that Farmer was at second was greeted with a sigh of relief.   Farmer has been hitting better lately and when he is at second, I do not close my eyes when a ball is hit that way.

[mrmpls]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Lee saved a trip down for bit with this game.

Julien is more worthless than Lee,  and more flexibility 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Personally I don't think you can run Festa, Varland, or Matthews out there again.  They will because they have no other choice (thanks ownership), but if they get to the postseason, the #4 starter needs to be Sands.

[Blyleven2011]

I did not get a chance to watch or listen to game today ...

Pleasantly surprised we rose to the occasion  , lately the twins have  gotten screwed without even being kissed but ...

Wow , 5 rbi's for Lee  ...

5 for 8 with runners in scoring position  and only 5 left on base ....

WOW , What took so long to figure That out  .... 

Another short outing by Festa  , but bullpen which sometimes doesn't get the credit , they  get the credit today ....

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Magic # 11.

4,5 games up on Red Sox with a 3 game series this week - up 2-1 in season series. 2 end in Cleveland and 2 in Boston would really lift us up!!!!

Tigers & Mariners only 2.5 games back…….3 back in loss column - Twins own tiebreaker with both. Tigers headed to K.C. for 3 games. Mariners host Yankees for 3 games.

[JD-TWINS]

Lee seems like the choice at 2B along with Castro and maybe Farmer in October…….Julien would be out - non rostered. All of this group are marginal offensively but the Top 3 guys can all back up Correa at SS. Just can’t have a similar offensive guy that makes everyone anxious when he’s on defense, like Julien.

Castro may not start in playoffs with Most Starts and AB’s on Team for the ‘24 season.

Lewis - CC - Lee - Santana

Miranda - Farmer - 2 Catchers

Larnach - Castro - Buxton - Kepler - Wallner

Frankly, SWR concerns me now more than Festa…….Festa is inexperienced but SWR seems gassed……..Seems Lopez - Matthews - Ober are all 3 lined up to pitch 3 more times……all 3 in last series v. Baltimore. We need 3 wins in the 7 games started between Matthews - SWR - Festa…..hope they can hold it together!!!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Personally I don't think you can run Festa, Varland, or Matthews out there again.  They will because they have no other choice (thanks ownership), but if they get to the postseason, the #4 starter needs to be Sands.

If they need a 4th starter in the playoffs then they won the wild-card round.

[knothole61]

A much needed win, but a minimum of 3-4 is necessary on this tough road trip.

Did any one else find the guy sharing the broadcast with Provus to be insufferable? I mean, an occasional insightful tidbit can help spice up the call but this guy gave a full, minutiae-filled seminar on pitching and hitting tactics with all the pedantry of one of those guys who promised to deliver the secrets of financial success on 10 cassette tapes (for only $29.99!) back in the 1970s.

He drove me up a wall, 

[CRF]

The script they need to flip...is over the next 7 games. If they go to Cleveland and Boston and get waxed, then you can stick a fork in them. 

[Karbo]

Looks like a do or die week ahead.

[Doctor Wu]

Jorge Alcalá threw two scoreless innings to seal the victory after bleaching his hair. 

The rest of the team should take note. This is the obvious new key to success for the rest of the season. 

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Personally I don't think you can run Festa, Varland, or Matthews out there again.  They will because they have no other choice (thanks ownership), but if they get to the postseason, the #4 starter needs to be Sands.

I don't think you can get much out of Sims either, it seems all our rookie SPs are running on fumes. But why blame ownership? Did they trade for worthless Desclavani & his salary? Did they tell FO not to make any meaningful trades for SPs? Were they involved in their management? I don't think so.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think you can get much out of Sims either, it seems all our rookie SPs are running on fumes. But why blame ownership? Did they trade for worthless Desclavani & his salary? Did they tell FO not to make any meaningful trades for SPs? Were they involved in their management? I don't think so.

The FO didn't sign any starters in FA or make any meaningful trades for a starter because ownership slashed the payroll and wouldn't take on additional salary at the deadline. How are you going to bring in a meaningful starter when you have $30M less to spend? Outside of trading away Brooks Lee + another top prospect for a good starter pre-arbitration.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, knothole61 said:

A much needed win, but a minimum of 3-4 is necessary on this tough road trip.

Did any one else find the guy sharing the broadcast with Provus to be insufferable? I mean, an occasional insightful tidbit can help spice up the call but this guy gave a full, minutiae-filled seminar on pitching and hitting tactics with all the pedantry of one of those guys who promised to deliver the secrets of financial success on 10 cassette tapes (for only $29.99!) back in the 1970s.

He drove me up a wall, 

Didn’t watch more than 2 innings but that’s former reliever Jeff Brantley (The Cowboy) & he does color for Red’s broadcasts. He does tend to rotate out after half the game - maybe that’s the problem over 9 innings?

I thought it was interesting that the broadcast blended the two teams broadcast guys.

[JD-TWINS]

TIGERS 15-7 over last 22. They started streak 4-0 v. White Sox.

They finish season with 3 v. White Sox.

Royals & Orioles this week.

Need a 3 game lead going into final weekend or we’re in for some real anxious moments!

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The FO didn't sign any starters in FA or make any meaningful trades for a starter because ownership slashed the payroll and wouldn't take on additional salary at the deadline. How are you going to bring in a meaningful starter when you have $30M less to spend? Outside of trading away Brooks Lee + another top prospect for a good starter pre-arbitration.

It's foolhardy to expect to sign a big-name SP FA even if we had money to spend on them, but still people dream if only we had the money to sign them. They won't come to MN unless you throw ridiculous money at them or have a Lance Lynn situation where we lose either way. 

We don't have to trade a Brooks Lee to obtain a top SP. All we need to do is trade away some top prospects we don't need or top young MLB players that we can live w/o. We are going to face a very serious 40-man crunch because we want to hang unto our prospects.  Even a middle-of-the-rotation SP would have helped to ease off the terrible burden put on our pitchers. Again ownership shouldn't be blamed for the lack of ability from the FO for not doing so under their limitations.