Is it Time for Twins to Move Louie Varland to the Bullpen?

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, August J Gloop said:

The question is to if Va

So far, Varland has been a bad starter. He lacks the tools to get batters out 2, let alone 3 times in the same game. He probably can still develop these tools. It will take a few months of intense practice that he doesn't currently have. 

They need another good reliever. Louie has the tools to be that guy. Hopefully that will be what they do. 

You might be right. Or maybe not. 

There has certainly been an inconsistency with Varland in the rotation. 

But I have to ask. 

If Richards can be refined. Couldn't Varland?

In my humble opinion... Varland has the better stuff and it isn't that close in my opinion. 

With me... It's can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. I'm still hopeful that Varland can hang a zero more than an inning at a time and I'm willing to bet that we will need him to start for us before the year is up. 

However... I think at this point in the season. He can move between pen and rotation rather seemlessly. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And their dial has them within 4.5 games of the best record in baseball while missing Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner, Julien, etc. for significant amounts of time. How much better do you honestly think they could be if their dial were turned up to the place you think it should be?

No idea, but he's clearly better than at least two, if not four, current players. That's the point for me.... Get the best players in Minnesota and see what happens. We're not going to agree, clearly

[August J Gloop]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

You might be right. Or maybe not. 

There has certainly been an inconsistency with Varland in the rotation. 

But I have to ask. 

If Richards can be refined. Couldn't Varland?

In my humble opinion... Varland has the better stuff and it isn't that close in my opinion. 

With me... It's can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. I'm still hopeful that Varland can hang a zero more than an inning at a time and I'm willing to bet that we will need him to start for us before the year is up. 

However... I think at this point in the season. He can move between pen and rotation rather seemlessly. 

Varland can absolutely be refined, but in a short period of time it's about pitch distribution. And in LV's case it's about refining his approach to use his 98+ fastball as much as possible in a game. and that's for about 2 innings every other day. 

[USAFChief]

It's a close call, but I think we're at the point in the season where it makes sense to see if Varland can help in a short relief role. That's not a guarantee, BTW.

If (when, most likely) the Twins need a starter, the available options aren't significantly worse anyway.

 

[Maybe Next Year]

If Louie would change his mindset and embrace a relievers role I think he could be excellent for many years. He has really good stuff. He seems to struggle getting past 3 - 4 innings on the mound. The bullpen is where he belongs. Hopefully he himself will come to that realization.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Many say that once a pitcher is lengthened out they cannot relieve and then go back to the starter role until the following season.  Why can't they bring him up and use him in a long relief role so he stays lengthened out and is ready to start later on if needed?  Obviously he'd need 3-4 days rest but it would keep him lengthened out.  This would provide immediate BP benefits at the MLB level while keeping the SP depth that we need should an injury arise.

They can do that. Wouldn't be the end of the world. I'm not saying it's ridiculous to put him in the pen now, but there's also a very reasonable answer to why they aren't doing it yet. 

Long relief is a tricky thing in general. It's why we've seen Sands and Winder sit on the roster for weeks at a time without ever throwing a pitch in a game the last couple years. Unless you're doing more of a piggy-back situation where those players are throwing in certain games no matter what it's a hard spot to manage. If they're used they're then down for 3-4 days as you said. So you can either send them back to AAA for 15 days and replace them with someone else or you can keep them and hope you don't need them again the next couple days. It also makes it very hard to stay on top of your game when you're not throwing in a game for weeks at a time. 

If Louie is going to have to take a rotation spot it's reasonable to want him in as close to his normal starters routine as possible. He's already a questionable starter to begin with so you don't want him to be in a relievers routine and then have to try to be on top of his starter game if needed. Not a huge difference and not the end of the world, but it's a legitimate consideration. I wouldn't be upset if they moved him to the pen now. It's a reasonable idea. But it's also reasonable that they aren't. 

Fans tend to care far less about tomorrow than the teams have to. The Twins are on the extreme end of strategizing for 162 games and it can be frustrating to watch. That's what the platooning and pinch hitting strategies are, large sample strategies to maximize on the edges for 162 games. Whatever they do with Louie will have a reasonable explanation behind it. I just don't think the pen has been as bad as people think, and think it's reasonable to keep Louie in a position to be his best possible self if/when he's needed in the rotation.

[spanman2]

100% YES...lights out as a reliever.  He needs to face the facts that he is a relief picture.  Not a bad way to make a living.  Be proud of your accomplishments and park it out in the pen for the good of your team.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

Yes. Then off to driveline to see if he can get a worthwhile offspeed pitch. But right now his offspeed only works in contrast to 98+ on the fastball which Louie can only maintain for 2 innings max.

As a reliever he can be dangerous right now.  

Agreed. Making Varland a reliever now doesn't mean he can't try out again as a starter next season. We're not talking about a permanent move, or at least shouldn't be, we're talking about a temporary fix for the rest of this season.  Call him up for Henriquez when we can (I think he's eligible for recall on 8/30) and either sign Hector Neris or call up Winder (eligible for recall on 8/29) to replace Okert. Yes, that only leaves us with one LH option but that's much less important when all relivers have to go 3 batters. A bullpen with Varland and Neris/Winder for Okert and Henriquez could and should make a pretty big difference. 

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

For those saying no, when do you say yes?

September 16th when they head to Cleveland. 

[August J Gloop]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And their dial has them within 4.5 games of the best record in baseball while missing Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner, Julien, etc. for significant amounts of time. How much better do you honestly think they could be if their dial were turned up to the place you think it should be?

Since the gap between them an the best record stems directly from losing to the teams ahead of them the answer is really not much better. 
 

And Louie had 3 bad starts against 3 of the teams ahead of them. If they had got good starts and won all three of those games and everything else had worked out exactly as it has. The Twins would be 74-53, a half game shy of the best record. So in a way you're both kind of right. 

[2wins87]

I don't think Louie was quite as good as a reliever as some might remember.  I remember some hard contact for outs.

However, he was still pretty good, and should easily be better than a few of the guys in the pen now.  I'd probably wait to make sure teams don't start just teeing off on Zebby in his next couple of starts.  But I'd absolutely try to get Varland ready for a bullpen role in September as long as he's not needed in the rotation. 

[Mike Sixel]

Does he need to be on the roster by a certain date to be in the playoffs? Because I prefer him over at least three current guys ...

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

His 2nd time through an order OPS for his career is .837. 3rd time is 1.173. First time through is .678. 
This year it's .667 the first time then jumps to .933 and then 1.308 the 2nd and third times.

He can't get through the order more than once. Never has been able to consistently at the MLB level. I fully expect him to be moved to the pen at some point in September, and open the 2025 season there. It's where he's best used. Only thing holding them back now is that they have 3 rookies in their rotation and likely very little hope that either Paddack or Ryan are coming back to the rotation. Morris in AAA is the only other rotation option they have, and he's only made 2 starts in AAA. They need Varland at the top of his starter game for a while still. Even if the pen is the best spot for him. But he's only good for 2 to 3 innings. Once through the lineup. No more than that if you're trying to maximize Louie.

The stats that you are quoting mainly comes from times he is trying to be a SP. Therefore this includes the secondary pitches that he is using that isn't working for him, I never said I supported him coming back to be part of the rotation. I definitely stated I didn't want him pitch 3Xs through the order & back only as long relief/ spot starting. Spot starting is exactly how he has been used at the MLB level since he was sent down this season. Which hasn't been bad and at times very good while giving the rotation a well-deserved breather. I believe he could be better when he secured in that role using primarily pitches that work for him. I'm not against him pitching in shorter stints (actually the stress would be on long relief that would go 1X through the order) but is more needed in the role I mention to maximize the relieving the stress from both the BP & rotation. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Does he need to be on the roster by a certain date to be in the playoffs? Because I prefer him over at least three current guys ...

He needs to be on the 40 man roster by Aug 31 to be eligible. Obviously he already is.

There are even exceptions to that rule for injury. 

He doesn't need to be on the 26 man.

Teams set their playoff roster from the 40 man prior to each postseason series.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

He needs to be on the 40 man roster by Aug 31 to be eligible. Obviously he already is.

There are even exceptions to that rule for injury. 

He doesn't need to be on the 26 man.

Teams set their playoff roster from the 40 man prior to each postseason series.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility

I thought so, just wanted to be sure. Thanks. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

22 minutes ago, spanman2 said:

100% YES...lights out as a reliever.  He needs to face the facts that he is a relief picture.  Not a bad way to make a living.  Be proud of your accomplishments and park it out in the pen for the good of your team.  

He's not refusing to be a reliever.  The team has kept him starting games to keep in line to potentially start games if they need him to do so.  I think he is probably destined to be a reliever at some point in the near future, and I'm guessing he does too.  However, at the moment, his value to the Twins is as a guy who COULD start if they need him to and can go to the pen later.  To expect none of those rookies to hit a wall or get figured out is overly optimistic. 

Many here are acting as though moving to relief is going to take months of working out of the pen.  He's done it before, knows what it takes, and can do it again.  My guess is that he needs about 2 weeks or so.  So, until September 15, leave him as a starter. 

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The stats that you are quoting mainly comes from times he is trying to be a SP. Therefore this includes the secondary pitches that he is using that isn't working for him, I never said I supported him coming back to be part of the rotation. I definitely stated I wanted back as long relief/ spot starting. Spot starting is exactly how he has been used at the MLB level since he was sent down this season. Which hasn't been bad and at times very good while giving the rotation a well-deserved breather. I believe he could be better when he secured in that role using primarily pitches that work for him. I'm not against him pitching in shorter stints (actually the stress would be on long relief that would go 1X through the order) but is more needed in the role I mention to maximize the relieving the stress from both the BP & rotation. 

Those were his stats as a starter, yes. His stats as a reliever for his career are a .401 OPS against the first time through the order. Then it goes to .855 and 2.000 (only faced 1 hitter) the 2nd and 3rd times. These numbers are actually the reason he should be moved to a 1-2 inning pitcher at some point this year and likely for the rest of his career. He's never been good at getting guys out the 2nd time through the order in any role at the MLB level.

The question, for me, is when do you put him in that 1-2 inning role? I say September 16th when they go to Cleveland, assuming the rotation is still rolling then. If the Twins think Morris is ready to be the 6th starter then I'd be more inclined to make the move of Varland to the pen now (or when he's eligible to return to the big league roster if it isn't yet). But I don't see any benefit in having Louie available for long relief in the bigs when he's their 6th starter. Louie's best role is a 1-2 inning reliever. It's where he should be next year. I'm just not sold that it's where he should be when he's the 6th starter, and I don't see the benefit in him being a 1 time through the order long reliever when he may not see the field for 2 weeks because that role isn't needed. They aren't going to have him pitch once through the order on a set date so it's just a matter of waiting for the right situation and I don't want my 6th starter sitting around not getting game action for extended periods of time while I'm in a playoff race.

[Mike Sixel]

This reminds me of the Jax discussion in the past..... It's better to be a RP making millions than sitting in AAA....

[Brandon]

I think after Zebby gets 2 more starts we move Varland to the pen if Zebby continues to pitch well.  And Festa does too.  Varland could still go back to the rotation if needed the first few weeks he’s in there and then if needed the last week or two in the rotation we can just do a bullpen game or two to finish out the season.  

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 If Varland was used earlier to take the pressure off the rotation & BP. IMO we have many more quality innings from both & Ryan would be still with us. 

 

So now you're saying that Ryan's injury and BP meltdowns are  from being overused. Because that is what you're saying, correct? Ryan's injury could have happened on the 3rd pitch of the year just as easily. BP meltdowns are simply a lack of quality depth. 😳 

[bean5302]

All of Varland's pitches are all flat relative to his peers so his option is to throw harder, and he can throw harder out of the 'pen.

Varland's xERA is 5.69 this year, his FIP is 5.84. He's earned that 6.14 ERA he has. He's not a viable starter in MLB, and while the phrase "he's pitched better recently" is supported by ERA, it's not supported by expected metrics. His FIP over his past 4 starts is 4.31 with a HR:FB rate way below his career rate, the exit velocity is still high, the hard hit rate is still poor, he still wasn't generating any pop ups or weak contact. Watching the balls fly off the bats always came with a high pucker factor.

As a starter 5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP. 8.11 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP
As a reliever 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 11.57 K/9, 0.55 BB/9, 0.73 WHIP

Varland's reliever sample size is small, but the results are promising that he might be able to overwhelm hitters with 100mph heat. As a reliever, Varland dropped his hard hit rate by 25% while doubling his soft contact rates, with 5x more pop ups generated. I'm not sure if Varland will be viable long term out of the bullpen, but he's not a viable starter.

It was clear last year he wasn't going to be a viable starter after he was moved to the 'pen last year.
It was made even more clear out of the gate this year when he got repeatedly shelled by rockets off bats in his initial rotation opportunity.
It was confirmed when he wasn't able to impress in the rotation in AAA, being outperformed by pitchers who were forced to take jobs in the Korean League pitchers like Adam Plutko, and journeyman AAAA guys like Caleb Boushley, and a our own Randy Dobnak who's been trying to resurrect his career after permanent finger ligament damage.

Could Varland ever be a functional rotation piece? Maybe. But he's going to need to pitch out of the bullpen to stay in MLB long enough to work on his craft to develop a pitch or pitches which can turn the corner against MLB hitters out of the rotation.

[mikelink45]

When did baseball decide that making a player into a RP means they could not be a starter?  Did anyone ask Johann Santana?

[KirbyDome89]

Varland's issues as a starter don't play particularly well as a reliever either. He's probably better than Okert or Richards, but that's an incredibly low bar to clear. Neither of those guys belong on playoff rosters, or probably MLB rosters at this point.

I don't think Varland as depth is really much of an upgrade over Boushley ect. I also don't think he'll necessarily stop the bleeding in the pen or be the plug/savior others seem to think he'll be either. 

[BsuNemo]

I see Glen Perkins when I watch varland. 

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No idea, but he's clearly better than at least two, if not four, current players. That's the point for me.... Get the best players in Minnesota and see what happens. We're not going to agree, clearly

Get the best players on the roster ...

We finally agree , I emphasize  totally  ...

[BsuNemo]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not happy with them standing pat at the deadline either, but this conversation isn't about the deadline, it's about Louie Varland moving to the pen. You disagree with their chosen strategies to try to win (and so do I, as you know), but you chose to state it as them needing to try to win now. If they need to try to win now the logical conclusion is they haven't been trying to do that before. But, as the numbers I presented show, their strategies haven't been all that catastrophic. 

And not trading for better players at the deadline is a very different thing that putting their #6 starter in the pen when they've already lost 40% of their rotation in the last month. It's not the end of the world if they put him in the pen now and have to try to stretch him back out later if needed. But it's also not outrageous that they're holding on a little longer before they do. Injury isn't their only concern. I know we're all excited about SWR, Zebby, and Festa, but there's a very real chance one of 2 of them hit a wall soon, or get figured out, and fall apart.

And as the numbers I provided before show, they aren't falling apart. In terms of blowing leads they've been as good as just about anyone in baseball. The pen hasn't crushed them by any means. I know it's been a tough week, but let's not pretend they've just been blowing leads left and right and Louie would've somehow saved them. They've been quite good at holding leads. Like, really, really good, actually.

It's great that we've played as well as we have through the injuries that we've had but it's also okay to say we should have two to three more wins this month. Would varland have helped in the pen in one or two or all three that's hard to say but probably... 

My biggest question is, it seems that there's a fairly high amount of confidence that varland would improve our bullpen... What's the drop off like between varland and whomever would be our fill in starter if need be? Because if that gap is smaller than our confidence level in him out of the pen then he should be in the pen and we should roll with Dobber or Morris or even have a pen day with varland starting. With how bad Varland has been the second and third time thru the lineup I'd say dobnak/Morris could do just as well in a spot start. Let's get him throwing gas in the  7th/8th inning now. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is a GREAT time to bring this topic up.  With the Twins bullpen in complete self-immolation mode we are 2-weeks too late to bring Varland up and put him in the pen.  He's a power arm who can be used in high leverage situations if he's throwing one or two inning stints.

How many late game leads do the Twins need to blow before this front office has the caffeine from their morning coffee kick in???  The twins went out and got a complete non factor for their bullpen at the deadline (Richards) who Rocco is rightly reticent to use in a high leverage situation.  Honestly, as far as a starting pitcher is concerned, Dobnak would probably do just as well as Varland.  But Varland COULD be a difference maker in the pen.  And to make this move NOW in no way puts Varland out of contending  for a starting rotation spot for 2025.  

DO IT !!!

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

It's great that we've played as well as we have through the injuries that we've had but it's also okay to say we should have two to three more wins this month. Would varland have helped in the pen in one or two or all three that's hard to say but probably... 

My biggest question is, it seems that there's a fairly high amount of confidence that varland would improve our bullpen... What's the drop off like between varland and whomever would be our fill in starter if need be? Because if that gap is smaller than our confidence level in him out of the pen then he should be in the pen and we should roll with Dobber or Morris or even have a pen day with varland starting. With how bad Varland has been the second and third time thru the lineup I'd say dobnak/Morris could do just as well in a spot start. Let's get him throwing gas in the  7th/8th inning now. 

I won't be mad if they call him up for the pen next week when he's eligible. It'd be a reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying it wouldn't be. I'm saying it's also reasonable to wait.

The Twins are going into September with 3 rookies who they need, not hope, but need to pitch the best they've ever pitched in their lives deeper into a season than they've ever pitched before. Just to get to the playoffs. Relying on a 4th rookie who started the year in A+ and is 22 years old to also do that would be a massive gamble. There's a very real chance Dobnak and Morris can't get through an MLB lineup once let alone 2 or 3 times. And a bullpen game could be catastrophic with 3 rookies who aren't likely to be going more than 5 innings a start in your rotation.

And I don't play the "if they'd just done this they'd have X more wins while nothing after that would've changed" game. Cuz it's not how reality works. Anything you change in the past would change what happened after. Would they have changed some Ls to Ws? Possible. Would they have also changed some Ws to Ls? Also possible. Making a different decision doesn't automatically equal positive outcome then and the same results after.

Like the idea of just doing a bullpen game if Varland is up and in the pen and somebody gets hurt. Now you've had to extend your bullpen in the game your starter went down. Follow that up with 3 of your starts (depending on who got hurt) coming from rookies being extended further than they've ever been in a season. Then pitch a bullpen game just to turn around and have another 3 starts by those same rookies? Sure, you may have made the decision that won that 1 bullpen game while absolutely blowing up your bullpen and sacrificing numerous other games along the way just so Varland can be in the pen and pitch 10 innings the rest of the year. 

It would be very reasonable to put him in the pen next week. It's also very reasonable to keep him in AAA as your 6th starter for a few more weeks as insurance.

[Twinsgypsy]

Varland  is in need of a good change up or another pitch that he needs to develop as others have mentioned. However, at this point in the season the Twins are in need of an additional reliever that has good stuff. At this point If he wants to be on the major league  roster he will have to be a reliever or he will be laboring away in the minors at  St Paul.

While it might not be what ideal for Louie because of his desire to be a starter it does not fit the needs of the team.  I remember when Santana first came to the Twins he work in the bullpen for a couple of years before he was made a starter that turned into one of the best pitchers that has pitched in the major leagues.   I think it would be beneficial to both sides for him to come out of the bullpen for the rest of the season.  It will take a lot of the load off of others in the Bullpen so that they can remain fresh to the end.

During the off season he can work with someone to pick up an additional secondary pitch that could turn him into a more effective starter, or a great reliever.

[BsuNemo]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I won't be mad if they call him up for the pen next week when he's eligible. It'd be a reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying it wouldn't be. I'm saying it's also reasonable to wait.

The Twins are going into September with 3 rookies who they need, not hope, but need to pitch the best they've ever pitched in their lives deeper into a season than they've ever pitched before. Just to get to the playoffs. Relying on a 4th rookie who started the year in A+ and is 22 years old to also do that would be a massive gamble. There's a very real chance Dobnak and Morris can't get through an MLB lineup once let alone 2 or 3 times. And a bullpen game could be catastrophic with 3 rookies who aren't likely to be going more than 5 innings a start in your rotation.

And I don't play the "if they'd just done this they'd have X more wins while nothing after that would've changed" game. Cuz it's not how reality works. Anything you change in the past would change what happened after. Would they have changed some Ls to Ws? Possible. Would they have also changed some Ws to Ls? Also possible. Making a different decision doesn't automatically equal positive outcome then and the same results after.

Like the idea of just doing a bullpen game if Varland is up and in the pen and somebody gets hurt. Now you've had to extend your bullpen in the game your starter went down. Follow that up with 3 of your starts (depending on who got hurt) coming from rookies being extended further than they've ever been in a season. Then pitch a bullpen game just to turn around and have another 3 starts by those same rookies? Sure, you may have made the decision that won that 1 bullpen game while absolutely blowing up your bullpen and sacrificing numerous other games along the way just so Varland can be in the pen and pitch 10 innings the rest of the year. 

It would be very reasonable to put him in the pen next week. It's also very reasonable to keep him in AAA as your 6th starter for a few more weeks as insurance.

I guess I'd say more wins are a higher probability than more losses if you put someone in that gives you a better chance to win... Which it sounds like most people think varland would be... I mean could we say that we'd have more wins if buck and c4 were healthy? Not for sure but a higher chance than we'd have more losses right? I feel the same with varland. 

As for your bullpen game scenario... Maybe you're right. Maybe we'd just be better with rolling the dice with Dobnak and see if he can get thru 3 or 4 then varland 2 or 3?

In all honesty, if we get to that point, especially if it's Ober or Lopez that goes down... We better just be in a place on offense to out score the other team. That would be a scary (in a bad way) scenario!