Week in Review: Coming Alive After a Deadline Dud

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins came up almost completely empty at yet another trade deadline, and compounded the pain by surrounding their inactivity with a pair of ugly losses against the Mets, but they rebounded to win four straight heading into a crucial week on the schedule.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/29 through Sun, 8/4
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 62-48)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +59)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) 

Game 105 | NYM 15, MIN 2: Mets Run Up Score on SWR and Bullpen
Game 106 | NYM 2, MIN 0: Festa Solid, Twins Blanked on Deadline Day
Game 107 | MIN 8, NYM 3: López Leads Way as Twins Avoid NY Sweep
Game 108 | MIN 10, CWS 2: Late Surge Turns Close Game into Blowout
Game 109 | MIN 6, CWS 2: Ober's Excellence, Kepler's Bomb Bury Sox
Game 110 | MIN 13, CWS 7: Early Lead Holds, Chicago Drops 20th Straight

NO PODCAST VERSION THIS WEEK BECAUSE I'M ON THE ROAD. SORRY! YOU CAN USUALLY FIND NEW EPISODES AVAILABLE EACH WEEK ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

The trade deadline arrived on Tuesday, and it was a very active one around the league, although not so much here on the local scene. In their last opportunity to add meaningful help from outside this season, the Twins front office made only one move, and it was about as low-wattage as possible: acquiring veteran reliever Trevor Richards from the Blue Jays in exchange for minor-league infielder Jay Harry.

The newly added 31-year-old right-hander is, by all appearances, a very mediocre pitcher. I'm sure he has traits that the Twins like, including career reverse splits that could make him a decent option against lefties, but this is a guy who's been borderline replacement level throughout his career. He has a 4.51 career ERA and 4.29 FIP, with his numbers for this year matching up closely to those. An underwhelming pickup to be sure, though to his credit, he made a couple of scoreless appearance in his first week as a Twin. 

To make room for Richards in the bullpen and on the 40-man rosters, the Twins designated Josh Staumont for assignment. It was a swift, sad downfall for Staumont, who looked to be pulling it all together in early July when his fastball was reaching triple digits and his ERA still stood at 0.00, albeit with a suspect K/BB ratio. Over his last seven appearances, he allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits and six walks in 5 ⅓ innings, striking out just four of 33 hitters. It culminated with a nightmare outing against the Mets on Monday (0.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 3 BB) that caused Minnesota's faith in him to completely evaporate. He was released shortly after his DFA and is now out of the organization.

That's one hopeful contributor subtracted from the bullpen for the stretch run. And unfortunately, Brock Stewart is now back in limbo after returning to the injured list following a brutal stint where he pitched three times and gave up eight earned runs while recording seven outs. It's a shoulder strain for Stewart, who I guess was maybe rushed back from the IL based on how things played out. Then again, he was out of action for almost three full months. Hard to believe he's going to be part of the picture from here on out.

 

On a happier note, Randy Dobnak received a much-deserved promotion back to the big leagues, called up on Tuesday to provide some length and depth in the bullpen. Alex Kirilloff's placement on the 60-day IL opened up a 40-man spot. It's been nearly three years since Dobnak was last in the majors, making this an inspiring journey that hopefully has some more high points left ahead. The Twins could use it, with their bullpen outlook beginning to look shaky. The stakes suddenly feel rather high for Justin Topa's effort to play through a knee issue and supplement the relief corps.

On that note, Topa completed his fourth rehab outing with the Saints on Sunday and appears likely to rejoin the Twins this week.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

On Saturday, Bailey Ober delivered yet another strong performance, holding the White Sox to two runs over seven innings and lowering his ERA to 3.74, including 3.13 since after his first start. It was Ober's eighth consecutive quality start, the longest such streak for a Twins pitcher since Phil Hughes a decade ago. Ober continues to pitch at an ace-like level and that should have fans feeling very excited. 

 

While he can't quite compete with Ober's streak, Pablo López logged a third consecutive quality start on Wednesday, picking up his 10th win of the season with six innings of two-run ball against the Mets. López now has a 2.86 ERA with only four home runs allowed in his past seven starts. Joe Ryan (6.1 IP, 2 ER vs CWS) and David Festa (5 IP, 2 ER vs NYM) also put forth impressive outings, making for a (mostly) very solid week for the rotation.

Offensively, several of the usual suspects carried weight for the Twins. Byron Buxton homered twice, doubled and drove in four. Matt Wallner notched three more extra-base hits, improving to a team-leading 1.006 OPS. Royce Lewis went 5-for-20 in his first week back, making plenty of noise with two homers, two doubles, eight RBIs and six walks.

 

It was also nice to see some bursts of offense from players who'd previously been slumping, including Max Kepler (5-for-15, 1 HR, 2 doubles) and Ryan Jeffers (3-for-11, 2 HR). Kepler's home run on Saturday – a crucial one in the closest game of the generally lopsided White Sox series – was his first in six weeks. Given the way he and Jeffers were tentpoles of this offense in the early going, it'd be huge to get both of them consistently swinging well again.

While the bullpen had its wobbles, it was another confidence-inspiring week for the big arms at the back end: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax and Cole Sands combined 9 ⅔ scoreless innings, striking out 10 with one walk. Jax was particularly outstanding, allowing just one baserunner in three innings with five strikeouts and a 30% swinging strike rate. He ranks sixth among MLB pitchers in fWAR (1.5).

LOWLIGHTS

Things were going smoothly through the first three innings for Simeon Woods Richardson in his week-opening start against New York on Monday, but it all unraveled in the fourth, where he was ambushed by Mets for six earned runs. This opened the floodgates in a blowout loss that saw Staumont and Stewart give up an additional nine runs.

Woods Richardson followed with another rough start on Sunday, lasting just four innings against the lowly White Sox while giving up three runs on six hits and three walks. Overall, he allowed 19 baserunners in 7 ⅓ innings across his two turns.

Even after two of his worst starts of the season, Woods Richardson still has a 3.87 ERA, which speaks to how well he's pitched on balance. We'll hope this is just a bump in the road and he can get back into a groove, although there have been concerns about potential regression due to his strikeout rate. The righty didn't get crushed in these outings by any means – 10 of the 13 hits he allowed were singles, most of them not that well struck – but it's a good example of how allowing too much contact can hurt you, which is the main reason it's always felt a little iffy to rely on SWR in the playoffs.

As much success as the Twins are seeing in the heart of the lineup, the bottom part of the order has been much more stagnant. That's largely due to the ongoing slumps of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, who both went 4-for-16 last week. These rookies can put the ball in play consistently, but Minnesota isn't getting a modicum of power from either one. Lee hasn't recorded an extra-base hit since July 10th, a stretch of 68 plate appearances, and Martin has just two since the start of July – one of them being a gifted "triple" that was butchered defensively by Chicago's Corey Julks on Saturday.

As Carlos Correa works his way back from the injured list – he said over the weekend that he's starting to turn a corner, after the plantar fasciitis pain took longer than expected to subside – it appears Lee and Martin are battling to preserve their roster spots. Neither is doing a particularly convincing job at the moment.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The Twins got no meaningful bullpen help at the deadline, in a week where they also lost Stewart to the injury list and released Staumont. They're going to need some help the rest of the way and it looks like they'll need to find it from within.

There are some candidates. One straightforward possibility that stands out is moving Louie Varland back into a relief role, where he excelled late last year. The Twins could consider taking the same route with Triple-A prospect Zebby Matthews, or even Festa, though the latter is holding it down in the big-league rotation right now. 

As mentioned earlier, Topa appears close to joining the mix, which could potentially provide a big jolt in light of how he pitched for the Mariners last week. But given the status of his knee, Topa is a complete wild-card.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins have a key opportunity in front of them. First they've got three games against a pretty bad (but not terrible) Cubs team at Wrigley, where they'll look to stay hot as they ride a four-game winning streak. From there they head home for one of the most pivotal remaining points on the schedule: a four-game series at home against the Guardians team they're chasing in the standings. Taking three of four or sweeping Cleveland could thrust Minnesota right back into the thick of the race atop the division. Anything less is going to make the objective of overtaking the Central lead before year's end far more difficult.

We'll see how they handle the doubleheader on Friday from a pitching standpoint. Potentially Dobnak could get the nod in one of those games.

MONDAY, AUG 5: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP David Festa v. RHP Kyle Hendricks
TUESDAY, AUG 6: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. Shota Imanaga
WEDNESDAY, AUG 7: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Javier Assad
FRIDAY, AUG 9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS (1) – LHP Joey Cantillo v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, AUG 9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS (2) – TBD v. TBD
SATURDAY AUG 10: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Gavin Williams v. Simeon Woods Richardson
SUNDAY, AUG 11: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP David Festa

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[Doctor Gast]

Lee & Martin have shown some signs of turning things around, Even not completely settled in the MLB with his hitting, Martin has sparks some rallies by his good ABs & sparkling base running.

I'm hoping the Twins give up on making Dobber into a SO pitcher & let him be that GB pitcher with that SO pitch to use only when absolutely needed.

[Nashvilletwin]

The Deadline was not a dud.  We kept our best future assets and didn’t overpay in a sellers’ market. There’s an excellent chance we make (and make a run in) the playoffs this year while establishing an outstanding (and affordable) core for the next several years when our window should be more open.   

With 48 losses we are only four out of the loss column from the best team in baseball - despite our injuries. Assets are returning. Stay the course. The next 10 days are key. 
 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think Martin is showing himself to be more of a short term asset at the MLB level than is Lee. I think Lee goes back to AAA when Correa is ready although that could reverse if Lee has a good week. He will be playing SS until Correa is back.

Dobnak is a fun story but he just doesn't throw enough strikes to be very effective. He's back in St. Paul as soon as Topa is ready or if they make a move with Varland. I expect Varland up as the 27th man for the doubleheader Friday starting game 2 as a tryout. He ahs the chance to stay up if he pitches well, accommodated by a SWR 10 day IL stint for shoulder fatigue or a demotion of Dobnak. 

Any more news on when Correa will be back? I did read that he progressed to jogging at Target Field and took a full batting practice session. The only steps left are being able to sprint and a rehab game or two in St. Paul. Correa is hardly a speed burner anyway, I'm not sure the sprinting is all that critical. If he can hit, he's worth playing even if he can only run at 80 or 90%. I'm hoping that he'll be back in St. Paul this week, DH on Tuesday, SS on Wednesday, DH on Thursday, and back with the team on Friday for the Cleveland series.

[Oldgoat_MN]

A nice look at things past, present and future. A bit of a loss as to why people keep mentioning Zebby Mathews, but I suspect y'all are following him closer than I am. 

Bullpen will be an adventure if no one steps up. Otherwise things are coming together nicely. 

Go Twins!

[USAFChief]

I don't understand why Randy Dobnak's return makes anyone* happy.

*Outside the Dobnak family, of course.

 

[SwainZag]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand why Randy Dobnak's return makes anyone* happy.

*Outside the Dobnak family, of course.

 

People like the feel good stories.  And he has pitched well enough in St. Paul to rightfylly deserve the promotion.

[SaberNerd]

12 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I think I only recognized one maybe two of the Cleveland hurlers you listed for the upcoming series Nick.  I have no idea how they keep pumping out these no-name, but very good starters each season.  I sure hope the Twins can get there someday and with Ober, Festa, Zebby and possibly Varland, we may be on our way.

They haven't had good SP this year though.  24th in ERA, 29th in fWAR.  Best bullpen though, so it will be much easier to strike against the starters.

[BH67]

The Phillies have lost 13 of 18, just as the Twins did in April. The Yankees lost 24 of 35 before their recent resurgence. The Braves have struggled, due in large part to season-ending injuries for Strider, Acuna and Albies. No team is immune from extended struggle this year. And these Twins, with rookies routinely in the lineup, have not had a four-game losing streak since June 8.

We're gonna win, Twins. You're showing us how it's done.

[Patzky]

I see no reason for a reunion but the Marlins designated Nick Gordon for assignment today.

[Karbo]

It does concern me that 3 of the 4 starters going Against Cleveland this weekend. SWR and Festa and who knows. SWR has looked overwhelmed the last couple of starts. Festa, at this point anyways, is a mystery. A split of this series would severely hurt their chances of overtaking Cle. Must win at least 3 out of 4 and a sweep would make a statement!

[blindeke]

Yeah Dobnak has not inspired confidence in his two appearances... I'd roll the dice with Varland.

[LA Vikes Fan]

26 minutes ago, Karbo said:

It does concern me that 3 of the 4 starters going Against Cleveland this weekend. SWR and Festa and who knows. SWR has looked overwhelmed the last couple of starts. Festa, at this point anyways, is a mystery. A split of this series would severely hurt their chances of overtaking Cle. Must win at least 3 out of 4 and a sweep would make a statement!

I don't think we need to go that route since we have an  off day Thursday. So, going on  normal rest, the rotation for Cleveland could be Ober first game Friday, SWR or a 27th man in the second game, skip Festa, Lopez Saturday, Ryan Sunday. That does catch up with us against KC though on Mon-Weds 8/12 -14, where it would have to be Festa, SWR, and Ober.  I suspect that Varland comes up as the 27th man for the second game Friday, SWR pitches Saturday, then Lopez Sunday, followed by Ryan, Festa, and Ober,  Mon-Weds. against KC.   

[mikelink45]

So long Randy, been nice to know you, but we've got to be moving along!.  Stautmont gone, a new mediocre arm arrives and we will soon say good-bye again.  The BP is a revolving door. 

[Doctor Gast]

Gordon DFAed by MIA

[Blyleven2011]

4 game winning streak  , sure would be great to see a 10 game plus winning streak ...

Let's swim and not sink ...

killer instincts are always welcomed  , Go twins ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Look...
I am happy the Twins are in the playoff hunt, but gotta be realistic here:
Overall Twins are 62-48.
Against CHW, COL, and OAK (3 of the 4 worst teams) they are combined 20-3.  (Means 42-45 against everyone else)
Against BAL, NYY, CLE they are a combined 0-14.

Hard to get real excited about sweeping the White Sox.  The Twins need to take 6 of 7 from CLE and KCR  starting Friday or the division is done for the Twins.

 

[Johnny Ringo]

I was at the game yesterday and Dobnak's "best" pitch is a 83 MPH puke job right down the middle that would only seem to work in town ball. Only White Castle has a worse slider. 

The mediocrity was stunning.  If the White Sox were at all competent or cared even a smidge, it could have gotten really ugly.

Everyone seems to love the inspirational Dobber story. Well, he is making more than his St. Paul  teammates combined and has not been kept down by unfortunate injury but by throwing slop. I like to think I am an empathetic person but the embrace of his underdog tale is a bit of a head-scratcher.  

I am sure he is a nice man. I wish him the best of luck (somewhere else).  

[DocBauer]

I'm over the deadline.

I still like this team. Unfortunately, there's just no way to erase April. If they win the Cubs series and can take 3 from Cleveland, things look different. If they don't, it may be wild card for the Twins.

Correa back makes a difference. Varland can do the same in the pen, bit not until September, IMO.

Not giving up on SWR after 2 bad starts as he looked really good and trending upward before those games.

Topa isn't a savior, but he can help. Hoping Stewart can be ready for September, but can't count on him at this point. That's where both Topa and Varland can be a real help.

Based on stuff and previous history, I'd rather see Dobnak get a start instead of being in the pen. He's never been comfortable in the pen.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Twins need to take 6 of 7 from CLE and KCR  starting Friday or the division is done for the Twins.

Baseball is always about the 162 game schedule. Yes, there are important games, but they all count the same. Nobody looks at the teams you beat or lost to when the season is over. The record speaks for itself. If the Twins finish with the best record in the ALC, we don't care about those individual games. 

However, yes, we all want the Twins to win their upcoming series versus the Cleveland and Kansas City teams.

[Peter]

Forget about football defiantly need to keep winning series especially against Cleveland!!  Not upset about no moves at deadline-we got the team to win it all!!! All of you must cancel any plans and support/watch our twins!!! Let’s go twins!!!