How the 2025 Payroll Situation Will Shape Twins' Attempts to Add More Than a Rental at Trade Deadline

[Eric Blonigen]

As we approach the 2024 trade deadline, we know a few things to be true: The Twins will be buyers; they need a playoff-caliber starting pitcher; and they face self-imposed payroll constraints. At least two of those facts are going to run into each other head-on, very soon.

Image courtesy of © Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Their current payroll is around $130 million, and ownership has hinted that it may decrease slightly next season--despite several players due for healthy raises. However, the Twins’ competitive window is wide open, and the time is right to make a big splash that will allow for a deep playoff run not just this year, but beyond. Will a trade for a pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi (and his $20 million vesting option for 2025) be possible?

Next season, Pablo López will start making the real money in the four-year contract extension that technically began this year. Players like Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Royce Lewis, and Trevor Larnach will hit arbitration for the first time. Willi Castro is likely due for a bit of a payday, as he enters his third and final arbitration year on the heels of a breakout season. Let’s take a look at their likely payroll commitments for the 2025 season, and consider options that may make a trade for a frontline starter possible.

Roughly $30 million in salary will come off the books this fall, as Max Kepler, Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Caleb Thielbar, and Jay Jackson are all free agents. However, that savings will likely be almost perfectly offset by raises to the players who are due for one. So, if the Twins trade for a pitcher who is controlled in 2025 or beyond, they'll need to shed additional payroll.

Below, we have the Twins' 40-man roster; the committed salaries (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts); and approximate arbitration values, based on 2024 comps from Spotrac. Arbitration agreements are largely based off of the player’s performance for the previous season. However, historical performance can play a part. This will come into effect for my estimates for players like Durán, who is having a down year. While this won’t be exact, it at least gives a starting point to estimate the Twins’ payroll commitments for 2025, and will inform the options likely available to the team.

Starting Pitchers
This is a good, solid group. They are inexpensive, have upside, and would look even better if Ober were the No. 4 and Simeon Woods Richardson the No. 5.

Player	Contract Status	Salary (real or projected)
Lopez	Contract	$21.75
Ryan	Arb-1	$2.5
Ober	Arb-1	$1.5
Woods Richardson	Pre-arb	$0.76
Paddack	Contract	$7.5
Total		$34.01

Relief Pitchers
Another very, very good group of guys, assuming health. Luckily, even with arbitration increases, they are inexpensive.

Player	Contract Status	Salary (real or projected)
Durán	Arb-1	$2.0
Jax	Arb-1	$1.25
Stewart	Arb-1	$1.25
Alcalá	Club Option	$1.5
Varland	Pre-arb	$0.76
Topa	Arb-2	$1.75
Staumont	Arb-3	$2.0
Sands	Pre-arb	$0.76
Okert	Arb-2	$1.25
Total		$11.27

Hitters
This might be one of the best lineups in baseball, and the core is young and controllable, with ample depth in the minors.

Player	Position	Contract Status	Salary (real or projected)
Correa	SS	Contract	$33.3
Buxton	CF	Contract	$15.143
Vázquez	C	Contract	$10.0
Castro	UTIL	Arb-3	$8.0
Jeffers	C	Arb-2	$2.7
Lewis	3B	Arb-1	$3.0
Lee	2B	Pre-arb	$0.76
Wallner	RF	Pre-arb	$0.76
Miranda	DH	Pre-arb	$0.77
Julien	1B	Pre-arb	$0.76
Larnach	LF	Arb-1	$1.5
Martin	OF	Pre-arb	$0.76
Total			$77.45

Remaining 40-Man Members
A good mixture of depth and upside, at worst, these guys are solid injury fill-ins. A few of them are likely much more than that.

Player	Position	Contract Status	Salary (real or projected)
Kirilloff	Depth 1B/DH/OF	Arb-2	$1.3
Camargo	Depth C	Pre-arb	$0.124
Rodríguez	Depth OF	Minors	$0.06
Festa	SP Depth	Minors	$0.124
Canterino	RP Depth	Minors	$0.06
Henriquez	RP Depth	Pre-arb	$0.124
Funderburk	RP Depth	Pre-arb	$0.124
Winder	RP Depth	Pre-arb	$0.124
Total			$2.1

2025 Projected Salary by Position Group

Category	Salary
Starting Pitching	$34.01
Relief Pitching	$11.27
Hitters	$77.45
40-Man Depth	$2.1
Randy Dobnak Dead Money	$3.0
Total	$127.83

As you can see, before a move is made in the offseason, the 2025 payroll is only $2.5 million lower than this year's, despite losing seven players to free agency. Luckily, the team as listed above doesn’t have many holes. Assuming some semblance of health, they should have a great bullpen, a great lineup, and great depth in the minors, with high-end prospects that are close to the majors. There are no holes in the roster construction that will inhibit them from being a playoff-caliber team.

However, adding another frontline starter to pair with López and Ryan should make them a legitimate World Series contender. Any player of Ryan’s caliber or better in their final year of team control is likely to cost around $20 million, or slightly more. So, cutting between $20 million and $25 million from their 2025 projected roster seems to be the target that allows for the acquisition.

That's a lot of fat to trim. Let’s look at how we can get there by evaluating some cost-cutting options. There are four players it may make sense to move on from, due to their salary or value to the team.

Player	Recommendation	Salary
Vázquez	Trade	$10.0
Okert	Non-tender or trade	$1.75
Paddack	Trade	$7.5
Kirilloff	Trade	$2.5

First, we have Christian Vázquez. While solid defensively, he has been an offensive liability. It will be tough to find someone to take his entire contract, but there would certainly be teams interested in acquiring him. The Twins would probably need to give up a prospect in the 15-20 range in their system to trade him without eating his salary, but that will save $10 million on its own.

Next, the team can non-tender Steven Okert. He has been a replacement-level reliever, and paying a likely $1.75 million for his services is not money well spent at this point.

Third, we could see the team try to trade Chris Paddack and his $7.5 million contract. Despite his inconsistency, which is to be expected in a player returning from a second Tommy John surgery, he has been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. In the offseason, it shouldn’t be difficult to find a taker for him. Depending on health and his performance for the rest of the season, Derek Falvey and company may need to include a low-level prospect in the deal in exchange for the salary relief.

Finally, we have Alex Kirilloff. I project him at around $2.5 million as a Boras-repped Super-2 going through arbitration a second time. It’s unlikely they would non-tender him, but finding a trade partner interested in unlocking his potential could net a prospect in the 10-20 range from another team.

If the front office made each of these moves, the net result would be a savings of $21.75 million, which would allow them to pay for one additional season of someone like Nathan Eovaldi--someone you would feel comfortable starting in Game Three of a deep playoff series, and who would give the Twins both a wealth of high-end starters and high-end prospects in the minors to supplement. It would also allow Ober to move to long relief in the playoffs in some situations. If further salary relief is necessary, the Twins could also increase what they're willing to surrender in whatever trade may occur, in exchange for a few million toward next year’s salary.

Were the Twins to do something like this, it wouldn’t leave space for other offseason signings, but that may not be necessary anyway due to the team’s depth and the caliber of their young core. What do you think? Is this realistic? Would you make the moves listed above? Are there other contracts you would prefer to get out from under? Are these arbitration values close? Comment below with your thoughts!

 

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[Launch Angle]

I think the front office will have to strongly consider trading Castro this offseason. With Austin and Lee having position flexibility and if Julien can figure it out we should have enough internal options to replace Castro. I don't want to trade him but $8 mil is a lot if payroll is going to be cut again next year.

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  I really doubt that the Twins do much of any significance at the trade deadline.  They may likely dump a couple of veterans for low level prospects to further dump payroll.  The Twins are only 2 games ahead of Red Sox for the last wildcard spot.  Everyone just assumes they are making the playoffs.  I sure hope they do.

[Craig Arko]

I think you underestimate Ober, but otherwise something has to give.

[mikelink45]

Fun suppositions.  I just cannot figure out the FO plans.  If they want to cut payroll again when the team has such good potential I have no faith that they can pull off anything significant. 

[CRF]

I don't think it's necessarily true that the "Twins will be buyers". We all hope they'll be buyers, but it remains to be seen if they'll do much of anything. I'd expect them to make a couple minor moves, but I don't see them making a big trade of any kind to bolster the team. 

[Patzky]

Breakdowns like this are like a family budget.. they itemize priorities and lessen anxiety. Riddle me this.. let's say the Twins duplicate last year's playoff success.. will three additional home playoff games plus any semblance of TV contract enable a 140 million payroll, in your eyes? 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Thank you for providing an article that is in the world of reality instead of the fantasy "Who will the Twins trade for?" volume we have been getting the last few weeks.

Trade deadline moves would have to be salary reducing or neutral.  Otherwise nothing will happen.

After the season, moving Vazquez at the price of a teens-level prospect makes sense if possible.  Kiriloff feels a little like a sell-low situation.  How many options he has left will probably drive his situation.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Creative-thinking article Eric.  I like this idea as I doubt that the team competes past the first round in the playoffs without a starter at or above the Joe Ryan level.  Now, would Eovaldi even be available?  Would our FO be comfortable giving up the prospects needed to acquire him?  We shall see. 

I have to assume he's available. The Rangers are seven back for the third wild card, BBRef has them at 6% to make the playoffs based on roster performance and schedule. Fangraphs is slightly higher at 18%, but they factor in prior year performance. The question will be price, but for a year and a half, I would pay it assuming it doesn't require Jenkins, Emma, Zebby, the rookies, or our core guys.

[Eric Blonigen]

12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Thank you for providing an article that is in the world of reality instead of the fantasy "Who will the Twins trade for?" volume we have been getting the last few weeks.

Trade deadline moves would have to be salary reducing or neutral.  Otherwise nothing will happen.

After the season, moving Vazquez at the price of a teens-level prospect makes sense if possible.  Kiriloff feels a little like a sell-low situation.  How many options he has left will probably drive his situation.

Agreed. If he ends up with an option remaining, I assume they keep him for one more year to see if he can prove it. If not, I think he's traded.

[Eric Blonigen]

30 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Breakdowns like this are like a family budget.. they itemize priorities and lessen anxiety. Riddle me this.. let's say the Twins duplicate last year's playoff success.. will three additional home playoff games plus any semblance of TV contract enable a 140 million payroll, in your eyes? 

For me, if I were the owner of a team, yes. Will the Pohlads feel the same? Who knows, but probably not. Maybe with a deep run. I'm operating under an assumption they push for $125-130M.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, Launch Angle said:

I think the front office will have to strongly consider trading Castro this offseason. With Austin and Lee having position flexibility and if Julien can figure it out we should have enough internal options to replace Castro. I don't want to trade him but $8 mil is a lot if payroll is going to be cut again next year.

I considered making that recommendation, but I think he provides so much surplus value at $8M. His positional flexibility and bat provide a safety net against injuries and make days off more feasible for other guys. Of course, he could be a very attractive trade target for all those same reasons. However, I assume they keep him unless they are blown away at an offer.

[Eric Blonigen]

44 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I think you underestimate Ober, but otherwise something has to give.

I originally had him and Ryan both making a couple million more than I estimated, but looking at 2024 agreements for Arb-1 pitchers, here are the top four starters. I can't imagine Ober gets more than Skubal did this year.

[LambchoP]

I would love it if the Twins could grab Eovaldi or another TOR starter. I don't see it happening unless we can unload 10-15 million in payroll to offset the cost of the starter. My guess is the Twins pick up one, maybe two bullpen arms and that's it. The timing on all this just really sucks. We finally win a playoff series last year, we're in a close playoff race this year. Twins are clearly in their competitive window right now and what do they do? Cut payroll and hamstring the teams options. Very sad and frustrating as a fan....

[DJL44]

It's really hard to field a top 10 team with a bottom 10 payroll. Trading Paddack makes a lot of sense and they can probably find someone who will take him at $7.5M. Fill the spot in the rotation by trading from position player depth.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

From a Fangraphs article this morning proposing deadline trades (purely speculative ones, nothing actually rumored):
"Technically, [Eovaldi] has a vesting player option for 2025 at $20 million, but I’m not sure that’s really a factor here; Eovaldi’s on target to meet the 300 innings requirement should things go well this summer, and if they do, he’ll be in a position to do a lot better than a single year at $20 million."

For whatever that's worth. Player options or opt-outs make it tricky to set trade value, but there's some reasonable chance that Eovaldi is a rental, which has an impact on both trade cost and planning for next year's payroll.

[Craig Arko]

31 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

I originally had him and Ryan both making a couple million more than I estimated, but looking at 2024 agreements for Arb-1 pitchers, here are the top four starters. I can't imagine Ober gets more than Skubal did this year.

I wasn’t thinking of money, but place in the pitching rotation.

[Chris Spencer]

I still do not believe this team should invest any prospects into trying to improve for this year. The record against good teams just does not support them making any kind of a run this year. 1 and 3 since the break against good competition lends credibility. Sell of the expensive Vets and reset for next year. 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article.  I really doubt that the Twins do much of any significance at the trade deadline.  They may likely dump a couple of veterans for low level prospects to further dump payroll.  The Twins are only 2 games ahead of Red Sox for the last wildcard spot.  Everyone just assumes they are making the playoffs.  I sure hope they do.

Boston is cooling off again and are facing a very difficult stretch in their schedule - NYY (3), SEA (3), @TEX (3), @KC (3),HOU (3), TEX (3, @BAL (3) & @HOU (3). They may be out of contention by August 21.

[Rhyno006]

Quote

...ownership has hinted that (payroll) may decrease slightly next season--despite several players due for healthy raises.

A tale as old and as long as the Twins being owned by the Pohlad family... so tiring. 

[Eric Blonigen]

8 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe they can include conditions in any trade for Eovaldi such that we pay a base price in prospects for a rental assuming that he ops out, BUT should he opt in, then we have to send another prospect (e.g. 10-15 range) to accommodate for the extra year of Eovaldi's service that we get.  The FO needs to be creative here IMHO.

That’s an interesting idea - include a PTBNL either way and it’s either a lottery ticket, or a mid-level guy. That could work.

[Rhyno006]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Riddle me this.. let's say the Twins duplicate last year's playoff success.. will three additional home playoff games plus any semblance of TV contract enable a 140 million payroll, in your eyes? 

Highly doubtful, because the way the Pohlads run the team they'll still be looking to recoup the losses in revenue from this year.  

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Fun suppositions.  I just cannot figure out the FO plans.  If they want to cut payroll again when the team has such good potential I have no faith that they can pull off anything significant. 

Has any just asked them?

[bean5302]

Pablo Lopez is the starter the Twins should trade away. The Twins can part with Walker Jenkins to bring in a stud multi-year cost controlled starter to replace Lopez's #2 status or better.

Kirilloff shouldn't be traded because he has negative value. He'll be non-tendered.

The Twins will also need to move Vazquez by trading prospect value.

Paddack definitely needs to go. The Twins should be able to move him for a minimal return due to his low salary (relative).

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are going to be expensive, even as Arb 1. I'd figure $5MM for Ryan and $4MM for Ober.

[bean5302]

55 minutes ago, Chris Spencer said:

I still do not believe this team should invest any prospects into trying to improve for this year. The record against good teams just does not support them making any kind of a run this year. 1 and 3 since the break against good competition lends credibility. Sell of the expensive Vets and reset for next year. 

Formed this opinion in April and just kept riding it, right? Here are the series results for the Twins when facing off against likely playoff teams. The Twins are 7-4 in series' against playoff caliber teams since the beginning of May.
KCR - W
MIL - T
CLE - L
LAD - L
BAL - L
May
BOS - W
SEA - W
NYY - L
CLE - L
KCR - W
June
HOU - W
NYY - L
ARI - W
SEA - W
July
HOU - W
MIL - L
PHI - TBD
 

[Eric Blonigen]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Pablo Lopez is the starter the Twins should trade away. The Twins can part with Walker Jenkins to bring in a stud multi-year cost controlled starter to replace Lopez's #2 status or better.

Kirilloff shouldn't be traded because he has negative value. He'll be non-tendered.

The Twins will also need to move Vazquez by trading prospect value.

Paddack definitely needs to go. The Twins should be able to move him for a minimal return due to his low salary (relative).

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are going to be expensive, even as Arb 1. I'd figure $5MM for Ryan and $4MM for Ober.

You are correct that if the Twins were willing to trade Walker Jenkins, they should be able to get a controllable starter. However, if they were willing to do that, it would be counterproductive to trade Pablo. Keep him too and the rotation is set for the next four years.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

You are correct that if the Twins were willing to trade Walker Jenkins, they should be able to get a controllable starter. However, if they were willing to do that, it would be counterproductive to trade Pablo. Keep him too and the rotation is set for the next four years.

It's $20MM, dude.

I'd like to have a Jaguar F Pace in the garage. I have a Ford Focus. You have to live within your means and if ownership is dictating those means are $20-30MM lower, you make cuts you have to make, not that you like to make. Buxton has a NTC and the Twins don't have a legit CF replacement option. Correa has a NTC and the Twins don't have a legit replacement option (Lewis always hurt, Lee hasn't proven himself, Castro is nearing free agency and getting expensive)

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I think you underestimate Ober, but otherwise something has to give.

Completely agree on Ober - other than innings total capability, SWR looks pretty good as well!!

I would get relief rental and try to get Paxton for innings, similar to Kuechel signing last year.  James Paxton & Tanner Scott would be performance and $$$ best options.

Can drop Varland - Paddack - Topa - Stewart into the current Pen and be awfully strong ……..adding Tanner Scott and Pen would be elite!

Bottom line is they need to focus on being better next 3 months - next year either Paddack or Youth holds down the 5th spot. To me, SWR is cemented in the rotation.

[Western SD Fan]

Great article. While we don’t have actual numbers, I believe it was speculated that Bally signed a contract for around 75% of the 2023 contract, which was $54 million. That is approximately $40 million that ownership just pocketed. They may not even receive that amount as we will find out at the end of the month when Bally has their bankruptcy proceeding. I wish I could find the report, but San Diego has done the best of the 3 MLB.TV production markets and they have only netted $4 million in revenue. That is a significant decrease to consider without the fact that attendance is down.

The dream is ownership is saving money to maintain payroll between $125 to $135 million and stay competitive by demanding the FO does the impossible.

The fear is that ownership sees how the Guardians are doing and demand they operate more similarly to them and cut payroll even further to make up for the lost revenue and to hell with the fans.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Has any just asked them?

That is a question for TD - I suspect the answer is a resounding yes - they have asked over and over about budget.