How the 2025 Payroll Situation Will Shape Twins' Attempts to Add More Than a Rental at Trade Deadline

Their current payroll is around $130 million, and ownership has hinted that it may decrease slightly next season--despite several players due for healthy raises. However, the Twins’ competitive window is wide open, and the time is right to make a big splash that will allow for a deep playoff run not just this year, but beyond. Will a trade for a pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi (and his $20 million vesting option for 2025) be possible?

Next season, Pablo López will start making the real money in the four-year contract extension that technically began this year. Players like Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Royce Lewis, and Trevor Larnach will hit arbitration for the first time. Willi Castro is likely due for a bit of a payday, as he enters his third and final arbitration year on the heels of a breakout season. Let’s take a look at their likely payroll commitments for the 2025 season, and consider options that may make a trade for a frontline starter possible.

Roughly $30 million in salary will come off the books this fall, as Max Kepler, Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Caleb Thielbar, and Jay Jackson are all free agents. However, that savings will likely be almost perfectly offset by raises to the players who are due for one. So, if the Twins trade for a pitcher who is controlled in 2025 or beyond, they'll need to shed additional payroll.

Below, we have the Twins' 40-man roster; the committed salaries (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts); and approximate arbitration values, based on 2024 comps from Spotrac. Arbitration agreements are largely based off of the player’s performance for the previous season. However, historical performance can play a part. This will come into effect for my estimates for players like Durán, who is having a down year. While this won’t be exact, it at least gives a starting point to estimate the Twins’ payroll commitments for 2025, and will inform the options likely available to the team.

Starting Pitchers
This is a good, solid group. They are inexpensive, have upside, and would look even better if Ober were the No. 4 and Simeon Woods Richardson the No. 5.

Relief Pitchers
Another very, very good group of guys, assuming health. Luckily, even with arbitration increases, they are inexpensive.

Hitters
This might be one of the best lineups in baseball, and the core is young and controllable, with ample depth in the minors.

Remaining 40-Man Members
A good mixture of depth and upside, at worst, these guys are solid injury fill-ins. A few of them are likely much more than that.

2025 Projected Salary by Position Group

As you can see, before a move is made in the offseason, the 2025 payroll is only $2.5 million lower than this year's, despite losing seven players to free agency. Luckily, the team as listed above doesn’t have many holes. Assuming some semblance of health, they should have a great bullpen, a great lineup, and great depth in the minors, with high-end prospects that are close to the majors. There are no holes in the roster construction that will inhibit them from being a playoff-caliber team.

However, adding another frontline starter to pair with López and Ryan should make them a legitimate World Series contender. Any player of Ryan’s caliber or better in their final year of team control is likely to cost around $20 million, or slightly more. So, cutting between $20 million and $25 million from their 2025 projected roster seems to be the target that allows for the acquisition.

That's a lot of fat to trim. Let’s look at how we can get there by evaluating some cost-cutting options. There are four players it may make sense to move on from, due to their salary or value to the team.

First, we have Christian Vázquez. While solid defensively, he has been an offensive liability. It will be tough to find someone to take his entire contract, but there would certainly be teams interested in acquiring him. The Twins would probably need to give up a prospect in the 15-20 range in their system to trade him without eating his salary, but that will save $10 million on its own.

Next, the team can non-tender Steven Okert. He has been a replacement-level reliever, and paying a likely $1.75 million for his services is not money well spent at this point.

Third, we could see the team try to trade Chris Paddack and his $7.5 million contract. Despite his inconsistency, which is to be expected in a player returning from a second Tommy John surgery, he has been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. In the offseason, it shouldn’t be difficult to find a taker for him. Depending on health and his performance for the rest of the season, Derek Falvey and company may need to include a low-level prospect in the deal in exchange for the salary relief.

Finally, we have Alex Kirilloff. I project him at around $2.5 million as a Boras-repped Super-2 going through arbitration a second time. It’s unlikely they would non-tender him, but finding a trade partner interested in unlocking his potential could net a prospect in the 10-20 range from another team.

If the front office made each of these moves, the net result would be a savings of $21.75 million, which would allow them to pay for one additional season of someone like Nathan Eovaldi--someone you would feel comfortable starting in Game Three of a deep playoff series, and who would give the Twins both a wealth of high-end starters and high-end prospects in the minors to supplement. It would also allow Ober to move to long relief in the playoffs in some situations. If further salary relief is necessary, the Twins could also increase what they're willing to surrender in whatever trade may occur, in exchange for a few million toward next year’s salary.

Were the Twins to do something like this, it wouldn’t leave space for other offseason signings, but that may not be necessary anyway due to the team’s depth and the caliber of their young core. What do you think? Is this realistic? Would you make the moves listed above? Are there other contracts you would prefer to get out from under? Are these arbitration values close? Comment below with your thoughts!