Which Injured Twins Will Return Soonest, and How Will They Affect Team's Deadline Plans?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota has been playing well in recent weeks, and more reinforcements may be coming. When are some of the team’s critical pieces expected to return from the IL?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Twins were quiet at the trade deadline, for numerous reasons. One of the biggest was the corps of impact players scheduled to return from the injured list down the stretch. This strategy worked last season, and the front office could follow a similar plan this year. Here is a quick rundown of Twins players on the injured list, and their expected timelines (loose estimates, of course) to return in the second half.

UTL Austin Martin
Injury: Oblique Strain
Martin has fit into a unique role with the Twins this season because of his versatility. He can play multiple defensive positions, and has hit .265/.331/.372, with 10 extra-base hits and a 100 OPS+ in 47 games. He’s gone 6-for-8 in stolen base opportunities and made 14 or more starts in both left and center field. His inexperience in the outfield has been evident, as there have been some defensive miscues. Martin might not have a job waiting for him at the big-league level when he returns, if Matt Wallner continues to hit well in his absence, but virtually any further injury throughout the roster would clear a lane for him. 
Expected Return: Late July

3B Royce Lewis
Injury: Right adductor strain
Lewis has been snakebitten by injuries throughout his professional career, and has suffered significant or even major injuries in three consecutive seasons. However, there is no question about how he impacts the lineup when he is healthy. Lewis went on a home run binge to start his 2024 season, but that was also after he injured his hamstring on Opening Day. Last season, the Twins saw what Lewis could mean to the team in October, as he hit four home runs in six playoff games. Minnesota needs Lewis healthy for the playoffs, because he is arguably the team’s best hitter. For that very reason, they might be more cautious in returning him to action than they would be with a less habitually injured, less important member of the team.
Expected Return: Mid- to late August

1B/OF Alex Kirilloff
Injury: Back issues
The Twins attempted to demote Kirilloff to Triple-A last month, but he then revealed that he was dealing with worsening soreness in his back. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expressed concerns that Kirilloff had not fully communicated the extent of his injury, a critique with which the player himself agreed. Even if he does return, he is likely headed to St. Paul to prove his bat can return to form. 
Expected Return: TBD

RHP Brock Stewart
Injury: Right shoulder tendinitis
Stewart has been on the IL since the beginning of May, after being one of the team’s best relievers to start the year--and during his intermittent availability last year. He pitched a live batting practice session over the weekend, and will begin a rehab assignment with the Saints this week. If everything goes well, Stewart should be in line to rejoin the bullpen shortly after the All-Star break. His addition to the high-leverage unit will be welcome, for a team that has seen some shaky late-inning moments throughout the season. 
Expected Return: End of July

RHP Justin Topa
Injury: Left patellar tendinitis
Topa attempted an initial rehab assignment in May, but soreness flared up. An MRI revealed that he had a 25% tear in his left patellar tendon, for which he received a platelet-rich plasma injection. He is scheduled to throw a second bullpen session this week and start a rehab assignment next week. Topa was a critical late-inning option for Seattle’s bullpen last season, but he has yet to pitch a regular season game for the Twins. 
Expected Return: August

Understanding the impact of these potential returns is crucial, as we look toward the trade deadline. It's also a key dynamic in what is becoming a taut three-team race for the AL Central crown. Hopefully, each of the above return on schedule, if not sooner.

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Which player will impact the Twins most in the second half? Will these player’s expected returns impact the team’s trade deadline strategy? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Brandon]

Our biggest need is the bullpen and maybe 6th starter.  Brock and Topa could fix the pen but acquiring a good arm like Chapman or Yates would really help.  Also converting Varland to the pen as well.  
 

I’m not sure what to do about the rotation.  I don’t think we will pay the cost to get a top of rotation starter and our rotation is ok and if we stack the pen is where our playoff advantage comes from.  
 

we don’t need to get hitting.  I don’t know who we trade maybe trade Kepler but I suspect we keep him.  
 

[old nurse]

Topa and Stewart being effective would eliminate the need to trade for a right handed reliever.. They really can’t make a trade to replace Lewis. Kirilloff may be replaced by Wallner as a LHB. That leaves Martin. As they trade for a RHB for the outfield. Since the FO got Margot, I don’t see them making a trade, unless any of these players are trade bait in a trade for a frontline starter or LH reliever 

[USAFChief]

The Twins could really use bullpen help. I wouldn't count on either Stewart or Topa. Nor Varland. That means they need to go get some help. Stat. 

If either Stewart or Topa come back healthy and effective at some point, so much the better.

I don't think they'll add a bat. Whenever Lewis comes back, he comes back. Martin is inconsequential. 

 

[Fat Calvin]

I'd like to see us add another starter.  He doesn't have to be front line.  If we can get a middle of the pack starter we should at least get into the playoffs.

[Brandon]

9 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

I'd like to see us add another starter.  He doesn't have to be front line.  If we can get a middle of the pack starter we should at least get into the playoffs.

Who gets bounced from the rotation if we get a mid-rotation starter?

[DJL44]

Royce Lewis could be spending a lot of time at DH to finish this season.

[Hubie29]

26 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Who gets bounced from the rotation if we get a mid-rotation starter?

Paddack for sure.  

[thelanges5]

49 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

Paddack for sure.  

We’ll know a lot more about Paddack in the coming weeks. 

[Jim wyllie]

I think bull pen help and depth is key and agree paddock is the odd man out if we aquire a starter, he could even be included in a trade to a third team along with farmer to offset added payroll from acquiring pitching

[Fat Calvin]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

Who gets bounced from the rotation if we get a mid-rotation starter?

I'd say either Paddock or the three-letter guy.  I don't trust either one to finish out the year.  And you could stash either one in AAA.

 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Fat Calvin said:

I'd say either Paddock or the three-letter guy.  I don't trust either one to finish out the year.  And you could stash either one in AAA.

 

Paddack can’t be sent to the minors without his approval. He’s either in the rotation, the bullpen or the injured list. 

[Doctor Wu]

You asked the question: Which player will impact the Twins most in the second half? ... and I gotta think that has to be Royce Lewis. Having him back in the lineup will be huge. But yes, the bullpen is a concern too. As USAFchief said, depending on guys like Stewart to Topa to bounce back from injuries, when neither one has pitched much (or any) this year might be much too optimistic. Another strong arm would be welcome, but I'm not keen on trading any top prospects for someone to pitch only a few innings. 

[Brandon]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

You asked the question: Which player will impact the Twins most in the second half? ... and I gotta think that has to be Royce Lewis. Having him back in the lineup will be huge. But yes, the bullpen is a concern too. As USAFchief said, depending on guys like Stewart to Topa to bounce back from injuries, when neither one has pitched much (or any) this year might be much too optimistic. Another strong arm would be welcome, but I'm not keen on trading any top prospects for someone to pitch only a few innings. 

You’re trading for the reliever for their performance in the playoffs.  We have to win 11 games or so to get the prize.  

[twinfan]

When Lewis returns, Farmer has to go. As far as pitchers, we need a dependable starter and, as I have mentioned somewhere else, I'd see if Jameson Taillon is available. The Cubs need hitting and we need a dependable, veteran starter.

[Trov]

The returning pitchers are the only ones that would affect trade deadline plans.  If both return and can pitch to expectations there is little need for a high leverage arm from right side.  We would still need upgrade from left side.  The position players are covered by our depth.  It may allow us to use some of our depth to trade for a pitcher if needed though. 

[TopGunn#22]

It's good to know Stewart should be back by the end of July and Topa sometime in early August.  Counting on either however is risky, especially Stewart.  When he's "dealing" he's tremendous.  But staying healthy has been an issue his entire career,

Varland could be a big help, or a total flop.  One thing IS certain.  They need a dependable LHP in the pen.  Funderburk and Okert have not impressed.  Thielbar is soon to be DFA'd in my opinion.  They need a lefty.

The offense is clicking now even without Lewis.  It's gonna hurt that he will miss as much time as he will but he will be the "deadline bat" this front office adds.  Wallner mashing would also be a tremendous boost.  

[Doctor Gast]

Of course, Royce is our ace in the hole. I expect Steward to come back as good as ever like before. If Topa comes back he should be used in lower-leverage until he proves he can handle higher-leverage. But like Pagan, Jorge Lopez & Colume', this FO will put him in the spotlight which never works out. Varland's problem is his secondary stuff, his primary stuff has never been in doubt by me. So his stuff will most certainly work at least 1X through the order. Both Martin & Kiriloff probably won't make the roster when they heal up, which is a crying shame. Martin & Kiriloff's problems were due to minor injuries, not mechanics, They need the playing time & the Twins need them on the field.

This is very much a seller's market, it'd be prudent to trade any veterans on expiring contracts (NYY & HOU need a 1Bman, PHIL & LAD need a OFer) & make room for our superior younger players who'll make up our future. Besides it'll free up money to be better used elsewhere. We can get to the dance (bar any major injury to our catching & top rotation core) with what we have got but to advance IMO we need a set-up LHRP & a top-tier potential SP. I'd trade Gonzales as a primary trade piece because he's peaked in trade value & will trend down from now on & he has no path to MLB with us. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Paddack for sure.  

No options with Paddack, pretty sure that’s right & signed through ‘25. ……..SWR hasn’t thrown a bunch of innings so far at 23 (neither has Paddack) so I think he might get a break for 2-3 weeks…..so he’s available through September. Maybe Paddack has a minor “injury” and goes to IL. He could be a weapon in late September and into October from the Pen!

I don’t see them doing anything in trades for pitching.

Henriquez & Stewart …….maybe Topa seem to be what’s used to get through 162 games. It’s very likely that they commit by September 15 to moving Varland to a relief role. Paddack a week or so later.

Lewis strengthens the line-up so much I’d have to lean to (even 85% of his health) him to be the most valuable add from the injury list.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

With Stewart and Topa on their way back and Varland/Festa/Paddack pretty much set up to be bullpen guys for the postseason I'm not sure there's really all that much to be done at the deadline there.

Maybe they could pick up a lefty, but most of the good LHR on teams that should be selling have a bunch of team control left - which just ups the price and paying for relievers with term is usually not a good idea. This list includes Andrew Nardi, Sam Moll, Joe Mantiply (AZ may not sell anyway), Robert Garcia, Tanner Banks. 

So, the other rental-type options for a left-handed reliever would be (ordered by how good they are)

Tanner Scott (last year of arb @ $5.7M)

Andrew Chafin ($4.75M with a $6.5M club option for 2025 [500k buyout])

Justin Wilson (rental at $1.5M this year) 

Jalen Beeks (last year of arb @ $1.675M)

Only Scott and Chafin seem like significant upgrades to me, and I am not sure how they make room for a 3rd lefty reliever - I highly doubt they will DFA Thielbar this year unless he really blows up again. 

[LambchoP]

I think our offense is good enough. What we need is an impact starter who can take the rotation spot from Paddack and move Paddack to the bullpen the rest of the year. With him, Stewart and Topa, we've got plenty of righties. We need to find a solid late inning lefty and I'll feel good about our playoff chances. Need a starter and lefty reliever. If we can dump Farmer for anything at all, even better...

[Jeff K]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Who gets bounced from the rotation if we get a mid-rotation starter?

whomever isn't pitching well.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I highly doubt they will DFA Thielbar this year unless he really blows up again. 

Thielbar got a break from June 12 to June 20. Since then he has 6 straight scoreless appearances and has given up 1 hit to his last 20 batters. His last 3 innings he's faced the minimum 3 batters in each inning while striking out 4 of the 9.

[JD-TWINS]

Completely agree with the Thielbar details from DJL44…….I wanted to lynch him (Thielbar) 3 weeks ago but he seems to have come around. A few different situations as well - not just cake walk innings. He’s a proud  & determined guy and still seems to have the same two-pitch stuff. He made some command mistakes but seems to be nearly back to normal.

Thielbar - Topa - Funderburk are all possibilities for the 9th spot through the September roster expansion. Having troubles finding exact info on September. It appears one player & one pitcher for 28 total bodies from Sept. 8 - Sept. 29. This would be a big change in the start date.

Anyway, by September 20th I expect, with health, the Pen to look like this:

Thielbar or Okert - Varland - Alcala - Staumont - Stewart - Paddack - Jax - Duran…..that seems as competitive as anyone in the game.

[mikelink45]

Interesting summary, but Lewis is the obvious answer.  Just as we used to wait for Buxton, now we are anguishing over the lost of our best bat.  No matter how the team goes now, adding Lewis will always make us better.