Edouard Julien is On the Clock

[RpR]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I kind of admire your blind allegiance to veterans like Farmer, Margot, Santana, and Vazquez. 

We all get older though, so far at least.

No different from those here who have blind (especially when they go ga-ga over some one still in he minors) but the veterans have shown what they can do, while with the rookies it is -- OH he will not get better unless  they leave him out there to get better (  with a skill they do not have).

Julien is a Gallo with an iron glove; Kirilloff, Miranda, Jeffers ? -- The bat may save one or two, their glove work is often less than average.

I do not know what is wrong with Margot. Recovering from injury, well, he will not get better unless they leave him out there to get better.🤣

[karcherd]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with you and recall too that they almost ruined Austin Martin by insisting he produce more home runs until he went back to his old line drive approach. `When will the Twins braintrust ever learn?

There was also an article last year that talked about them doing the same with Brooks Lee.  He finally went back to his swing and that is when his season turned around last year.

[SwainZag]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

Julien had an unsustainable babip last year. Several of us posted that he was a huge regression candidate especially as the league adjusted to him. He now needs to go to St Paul just to get his confidence back  Lee has not played any second base yet so I would put Castro there. It won’t be perfect but he handles things in the field ok no matter where they put him. 

While agreed his BABIP wasn't sustainable, it's not just that.  His BB% is down, his K% is up and after his early power surge, his slugging % is down 70+ points.  He has 1 XBH in his last 70 AB's.

Really breaking it down, he has been awful against everything but the fastball this year.  His baseball savant page breaks it down pretty well, and it's not pretty.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edouard-julien-666397?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

He did have 3 good AB's today, hopefully he can build from there, he's very talented, but if I'm pitching to him, he is getting junk or offspeed stuff for every single pitch.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

Dream on.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Dream on.

You're probably right. Makes too much sense. 

[RpR]

Just now, LA VIkes Fan said:

You're probably right. Makes too much sense. 

Yeah, but the Twins want to win in the Majors, not become St. Paul Saints training squad.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Yeah, but the Twins want to win in the Majors, not become St. Paul Saints training squad.

I agree to some extent. There is a balance here. I'm sure Brooks Lee will eventually earn a promotion but it won't be because he went 3-4 in one game. He needs to show success (OPS > 900) for at least two months, probably longer, and even then he will probably need to wait for an injury to give him an opportunity. People want to find a savior in the minors but there's usually a good reason a player is still in the minors. It's kind of like people who think the backup QB will solve all the problems for a football team.

Another thing that seems silly in this thread is the idea that every player who is struggling was "screwed up" by the Twins batting coaches who are completely incompetent and every player who is doing well is doing it completely on his own by actively ignoring his coaches. Total malarkey.

[karcherd]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I agree to some extent. There is a balance here. I'm sure Brooks Lee will eventually earn a promotion but it won't be because he went 3-4 in one game. He needs to show success (OPS > 900) for at least two months, probably longer, and even then he will probably need to wait for an injury to give him an opportunity. People want to find a savior in the minors but there's usually a good reason a player is still in the minors. It's kind of like people who think the backup QB will solve all the problems for a football team.

Another thing that seems silly in this thread is the idea that every player who is struggling was "screwed up" by the Twins batting coaches who are completely incompetent and every player who is doing well is doing it completely on his own by actively ignoring his coaches. Total malarkey.

At some point someone has to be accountable for all the young players not making the leap to full time contributors.  Is the front office not evaluating them correctly, are the hitting coaches not helping to give them the tools for success or is it Rocco for his usage of these players.  Other than Lewis and Arraez what player has come up to be a solid contributor to this team for more than a short stretch under the Falvey/Levine and Rocco regime.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Other than Lewis and Arraez what player has come up to be a solid contributor to this team for more than a short stretch under the Falvey/Levine and Rocco regime.

Jeffers is a borderline All-Star. Miranda looks good now that the shoulder injury has healed. Kepler has taken a leap forward in production that nobody predicted 5 years ago. Willi Castro has performed much better for the Twins than he did for the Tigers. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

While agreed his BABIP wasn't sustainable, it's not just that.  His BB% is down, his K% is up and after his early power surge, his slugging % is down 70+ points.  He has 1 XBH in his last 70 AB's.

Really breaking it down, he has been awful against everything but the fastball this year.  His baseball savant page breaks it down pretty well, and it's not pretty.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edouard-julien-666397?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

He did have 3 good AB's today, hopefully he can build from there, he's very talented, but if I'm pitching to him, he is getting junk or offspeed stuff for every single pitch.

Best comment in this thread. I wish I could upvote more than once.

[bean5302]

Julien's line, literally only 13 days ago .228/.342/.433 OPS .781 wRC+ 125. He's had a bad 10 game streak. I'm not a huge advocate or believer in Julien, but a bad 10 games isn't going to get me on board the demotion train.

Brooks Lee, OMG!!!!!! Brooks Lee!!!!!! has no business near the Twins' roster until at least after the ASG.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I agree to some extent. There is a balance here. I'm sure Brooks Lee will eventually earn a promotion but it won't be because he went 3-4 in one game. He needs to show success (OPS > 900) for at least two months, probably longer, and even then he will probably need to wait for an injury to give him an opportunity. People want to find a savior in the minors but there's usually a good reason a player is still in the minors. It's kind of like people who think the backup QB will solve all the problems for a football team.

Another thing that seems silly in this thread is the idea that every player who is struggling was "screwed up" by the Twins batting coaches who are completely incompetent and every player who is doing well is doing it completely on his own by actively ignoring his coaches. Total malarkey.

Is it?

[annismark]

Has anyone else noticed the Brooks Lee highlight was from last September?  He's only played 5 FCL games this year so far. And at St. Paul last year he batted .237.  

[h2oface]

The reason Julien has no competition, is that the FO traded Arraez and Polanco away, both for what is turning into, including Pablo Day Lopez, players that can't play for many various reasons, or that are becoming what they are instead of what so called projections bet they would become. Still not a fan of either trade. Now we got a guy that won't even swing at strikes, instead of what will be a 3 time repeating batting champ that would swing at anything close and get hit after hit. And we have a 5.25 ERA innings eater, and losing innings at that. Betting the house on Julien and Wallner after a couple of good rookie months proved foolhardy once again, and it has it the past, and some predicted. Now unproved Brooks will be the savior in the paralyzed by hope mentality. (And not everyone thought that Kepler wouldn't keep getting better, and never wanted to trade him and still doesn't...... )

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. 

The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do;

Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston)

Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10)

Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). 

Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B,  Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF.  Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher. 

Pretty sure Lewis isn't playing 2nd base when he returns.

 

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, h2oface said:

The reason Julian has no competition, is that the FO traded Arraez and Polanco away, both for what is turning into, including Pablo Day Lopez, players that can't play for many various reasons, or that are becoming what they are instead of what so called projections bet they would become. Still not a fan of either trade. Now we got a guy that won't even swing at strikes, instead of what will be a 3 time repeating batting champ that would swing at anything close and get hit after hit. And we have a 5.25 ERA innings eater, and losing innings at that. Betting the house on Julian and Wallner after a couple of good rookie months proved foolhardy once again, and it has it the past, and some predicted. Now unproved Brooks will be the savior in the paralyzed by hope mentality. And not everyone thought that Kepler wouldn't keep geting better, and never wanted to trade him and still doesn't......

I agree with most of what you say but Arraez's fielding is , so far, this year far below what it was, he has had as many errors so far this year as he had all year last year.

His bat would be nice to have but his fielding is no better than Julien Iron Gloves.

[USAFcrewdawg]

Not saying this is the issue with Julien, but I feel it has had an effect for sure.  Am I the only one that feels the way Rocco is managing the games has caused a lot of these issues for not just Julien, but Larnach, Kiriloff, and others.  These guys aren't seeing any sort of consistent playing time.  I get playing the numbers with Left/Righty matchups, but at a certain point let them play.  Kepler was on a heater until we faced 3 Lefties in a row.  The fact that they aren't even being given opportunities is only going to hurt the team in the long term. 

[stringer bell]

Julien has had a miserable month, so has Kirilloff, Jeffers has fallen off quite a bit. That's baseball. Great players have slumps, but by the end of the year, things almost always balance out. It's super hard to be patient watching Julien take strike three almost once a game, but if/when it turns into a 15% walk rate with decreased strikeouts, it will be acceptable again. 

It is the coaching staff and front office's job to determine if a player can cut it or whether they will never get to the point where they will be a trusted regular. So far, they are sticking with Julien, but I believe their patience is wavering a bit. I truly don't believe they want to cut bait on a single position player on the active roster. I would bet on a minor injury trip to the IL for someone before any of the current 13 are sent to the minors. Further, I think it puts Keirsey on the back burner despite a really good run hitting and perceived skill as an outfield defender.

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Julien has had a miserable month, so has Kirilloff, Jeffers has fallen off quite a bit. That's baseball. Great players have slumps, but by the end of the year, things almost always balance out.

Great Players ---------- no one mentioned here meets that standard.

Ted Williams once went 0-17, in his worst year, the only year his OPS dropped below 1.000 he still only had 27 K; his rookie year he had 64 Ks, worst ever,  that is a great player .

The term great should not used when speaking of Julien, Kirilloff or Jeffers.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Great Players ---------- no one mentioned here meets that standard.

Ted Williams once went 0-17, in his worst year, the only year his OPS dropped below 1.000 he still only had 27 K; his rookie year he had 64 Ks, worst ever,  that is a great player .

The term great should not used when speaking of Julien, Kirilloff or Jeffers.

Great players like Mike Trout, who had surgery while in a 4-35 slump. Perhaps my thought could be misunderstood. I didn't say that Kirilloff, Jeffers or Julien were great players, but even great players have slumps. I know Killebrew went through some skids in his career, as did Puckett. 

Strikeouts are far more common in today's game. That is a fact of life. Mentioning Williams numbers of 60+ years ago doesn't make much difference. Yes, Yogi Berra hit more homers in a season than he had strikeouts. I believe Joe DiMaggio did the same.

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

Julien is a Gallo with an iron glove;

Never mind the Gallo comp, Gallo has always been a good glove but I'm wondering if this is still true for Julien.  He's legitimately made himself a decent defender in a matter of months.

That's impressive in it's own right and one of the reasons I'm willing to be patient with him. He learns so much so quickly, including the english language, I'm wondering if he spent too much time on defense over the offseason.

Whats the chances he's spend too much time working on the glove and is behind on the adjustments the league made to him?  A AAA reset might be in order but he's not on the clock by any means.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty sure Lewis isn't playing 2nd base when he returns.

 

Probably not, but it does make sense as a way to keep Miranda in the everyday lineup. So does playing Lewis in LF, but that makes too much sense to actually happen. 

[Fezig]

He needs to take batting practice and swing at every pitch. Nothing should get by. 

I didn't like his approach last year when I saw him swing out of his shoes on two strike counts. Wasn't impressed then, less impressed now. I sure hope my opinion changes.

[LewFordLives]

18 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Who goes?

DFA Margot is an easy one.

Option Kirilloff?

DFA Santana?

This probably won't happen, but they need to release Santana so Miranda can play first when Lewis comes back. His defense has been solid, but I don't know how they can justify keeping him in the lineup. A major league first baseman having trouble staying above the Mendoza line isn't going to cut it. He's had a good career, time to start thinking about the next phase of his life.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

With Lee going 4 for 5 at ST. Paul and Lewis healthy, I’d say it’s time to call them both up now. And I’d call up Keirsey as the main Buxton backup and 4th OF while I’m at it. Keirsey had .400 OBP s OPS about .846 vs lefties last I checked.

Pretty sure Lee hasn’t seen St. Paul yet …….if he was 4-5 somewhere much higher than the Florida Coast League it would be a headline. Saints don’t play again until today or tomorrow……,assuming they want Lewis to play a couple more games, and I agree, they need to call him up by Thursday-Friday…..sure hope so anyway.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Never mind the Gallo comp, Gallo has always been a good glove but I'm wondering if this is still true for Julien.  He's legitimately made himself a decent defender in a matter of months.

That's impressive in it's own right and one of the reasons I'm willing to be patient with him. He learns so much so quickly, including the english language, I'm wondering if he spent too much time on defense over the offseason.

Whats the chances he's spend too much time working on the glove and is behind on the adjustments the league made to him?  A AAA reset might be in order but he's not on the clock by any means.

He’s hit .146 over the month of May…….he had 7 HR’s by April 25th……..he still has 7 HR’s. Practicing defense in offseason and Spring Training didn’t detract from his hitting the first 4 weeks …….can’t imagine it kicked up after having early success……he needs to go down and try to find himself.

[Parfigliano]

17 hours ago, twinstalker said:

This is just a guess, but it appears that Julien sees the ball's path much better than he sees it out of the hand.  Problem with that is the path is misleading if you aren't sure of the pitch itself, which seems to be the issue.  And that could be total bunk, I don't know.

The best hitters flirt with a 15% K rate in the minors.  Julien's was never less than 24% in any year-level.  EmRod's similar or worse than Julien in that respect.  Take even a power hitter like Pete Alonso, his K rate was between 15-20%.

So it's not surprising that MLB pitchers get Julien out.  To strike out 25-30% in the minors means there's a hole in your swing.  MLB pitchers inevitably find it.

So last year during spring training when certain people were talking up Julien, you might have found a couple scoffing comments from yours truly.  K rate doesn't lie, generally.  25-30% K rate in MiLB means there's a hole in your swing, and MLB pitchers will find it.  15-20% K rate in MiLB means you likely can pay attention to other predictors, such as exit velocity and such.  No hard and fast rules, but that's my take from years and years of determining predictors of MLB success.

Royce Lewis is going to be an interesting case study for many reasons.  His K rate wasn't great, and it wasn't horrible, but his barrel rates and exit velocities are likely excellent.  Nobody's had time to find his weaknesses.  That portends early success, and from there it's all about his smarts, work ethic, and ability to adapt, which is far more likely than it is with Julien or EmRod, because he probably doesn't have a pronounced hole in his swing like they do.

Honestly, if they could get real value (and $$$ efficiency), trading EmRod this year is probably the smartest move they could make.  The question is if they could find that perfect player in return.  I think a superb defensive CF like Ceddanne Rafaela has hitting chops that haven't been shown in MLB, but I doubt the Red Sox would give him up for EmRod, even with his slow start.

Note on re-read:  I've always like Julien and think he has a chance to be good.  There are a lot of things to like and seemingly only one thing to figure out.  He has power, speed, eye, and doesn't chase much.  I just didn't think he'd slide seamlessly into MLB.  On the other hand, I grabbed him early (years ago) on my dynasty teams.

Biggest hole in Julien's swing is his refusal to swing at all.  Last I saw he had an equal number of swinging and looking strikeouts in his absurdly high number of total strikeouts.

[tony&rodney]

Julien on the clock? Doubtful. 

Miranda was once a second baseman, Martin too, Lee took a few ground balls there when he would join Cal Poy informal practices back in high school, Lewis has talked to second basemen when stand ing on the bag, and Castro can fill in at second base. So the choice is basically Martin, Castro, or Miranda if Julien is off the job. 

Farmer? Everyone likes Kyle Farmer apparently but even he expected to be waived last winter. Folks can think he might regain some skills from two years a go, but it seems unlikely. It is just foolish to think his glove works at shortstop still. Why did the Twins use Castro when Correa went down? He has had 12 innings at SS this season. Julien has passed Farmer as a second baseman. Those holding onto the past are loyal, but wrong. 

Julien will need to get better, no question, but the Twins next best options are Castro and Martin, which likely means that there isn't a clock ticking at this moment for his playing time.