The Twins Relief Pipeline Has Become Too Predictable

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins spent no money on the bullpen this offseason because Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made a career of identifying scrap-heap arms. As another one emerges, it’s worth wondering if he works or the organization is simply shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

This offseason the Twins made only one acquisition of consequence regarding the bullpen. In trading Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, they targeted the pairing of Justin Topa and Gabriel Gonzalez. Anthony DeSclafani and his injury history were a byproduct of an ownership unwilling to spend, but a solid reliever and top-100 prospect had promise. Beyond that, it was waiver claims and reclamation projects, even if they were given major league contracts.

Jay Jackson was paid handsomely in an effort to keep him around without options, and Steven Okert was prioritized when making the necessary move to flip Nick Gordon. Their repertoires both feature significant slider usage, and that has now become synonymous with what the Twins try to do in relief.

While Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart blow hitters away with heaters, the rest of the group largely consists of slop-throwing arms that feature the pitch diving away from same-handed hitters. Jackson lasted just 17 games before earning a DFA that he was worthy of multiple games prior, and while Okert will get a longer leash, he too has been worthy of the same fate.

Looking to bolster the bottom of the group as they faltered, the Twins front office went back to the well for more of the same. Falvey dipped into another former Guardians arm, albeit one that wasn’t there while he was, in Nick Wittgren. The eight-year veteran threw for the Kansas City Royals last season before going unsigned this winter. Sent to Double-A Wichita initially, he is now pitching for the St. Paul Saints and a promotion wouldn’t be shocking.

Wittgren hasn’t struck anyone out at a respectable clip since 2021, and you’d have to go back to 2019 for the last time it would be fair to call him good. He has found a way to limit home runs each of the past two years, but the strikeouts have tanked and the path for him to be a reliable reliever is as thin as ever.

Having previously never relied on a slider, Wittgren incorporated it over one-third of the time last season with the Royals. Minnesota has decided that’s a pitch they can speak into, and now his repertoire is something they feel intrigued to tinker with. Given the significantly low bar to clear at the bottom of the Twins current pen, it’s also probably something they’ll try at the big league level before moving on.

As the season has produced uneven results throughout the entirety of its life thus far, among the most confusing decisions has been the way in which the franchise has treated Jorge Alcala. Finally healthy, they seem intent on both destroying his arm, and sending him packing whenever a body is needed. Someone with that upside appears infinitely more suited for a consistent big league role, but the transaction decisions have left him scratching his head.

When Cole Sands, Okert, Caleb Boushley, Josh Staumont, or the suddenly cooked version of Caleb Thielbar need to be replaced, expect another slider-flipping flier to get the call.

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[LambchoP]

I also do not understand the treatment or usage of Alcala. He could be a real good one inning high octane guy, but Rocco uses him to throw 50 pitches in multi inning mop up roles? Wtf? Also, Theilbar does looked cooked at this point and Okert doesn't inspire confidence either. Funderburk might be the best lefty on the team. I think it's time to call up Varland and stick him in the pen like last year. Varland Alcala and Stewart seems like a solid set up group.

[DJL44]

Why the focus on Wittgren and not Blewett?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Best bullpen in baseball.

[tony&rodney]

Something is odd about how the Twins have treated Jorge Alcala. It could be legit but I sure don't know or understand anything about the dynamics concerning Alcala.

[Doctor Gast]

Wittgren is a nothing burger. Quit fooling around & bring up Varland & Alcala.

[twinzcynic]

This can't be true! I read on here 2 months ago that we have a top bullpen in all of baseball. I for one am shocked that is not the case because Falvine are geniuses!

[Road trip]

Many, many things have gone wrong this year.  Injuries, poor hitting, odd playing time decisions.  But for me the top of the list is a disappointing bullpen.  I knew there would be injuries, because that's what the Twins always seem to have.  I suspected the hitting would be middle of the pack at best, especially once Lewis was injured.  Odd lineups?  Well, yeah, Rocco's gonna Rocco, and the front office brought in a bunch of very marginal vet bats (Santana, Margot).  But the bullpen...yeah, like many I thought they would finally be pretty solid.  Nope, even Duran has had issues.

On the positive side, the starting pitching at least has exceeded my expectations, at least at the back of the rotation (Pablo has regressed, obviously).

[chpettit19]

I'd be shocked to see Varland in the MLB pen anytime soon. They have no rotation depth and you can't take him out of that role in May. My guess is he ends up in the pen in September if the rotation is mostly healthy, but he's not going there in May.

Also not sure why they're treating Alcala this way. I don't think he's going to be great, but he's certainly got more upside than the never ending line of mid-30s, 1-hit-wonder arms they keep trying to make work. Not sure why he isn't getting a shot at being a 1 inning 6th/7th inning guy.

I will say the practice of not spending on the lowest guys in your pen isn't a crazy strategy. Finding guys with a pitch that can be dominant (slider or any other) who you can get for cheap is pretty standard for teams these days. Relievers are just too volatile to invest big in and the best practice is to find individual dominant pitches and rotate through guys through the first half of the year to find which guys are going to stick that year.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

50 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I also do not understand the treatment or usage of Alcala. He could be a real good one inning high octane guy, but Rocco uses him to throw 50 pitches in multi inning mop up roles? Wtf? Also, Theilbar does looked cooked at this point and Okert doesn't inspire confidence either. Funderburk might be the best lefty on the team. I think it's time to call up Varland and stick him in the pen like last year. Varland Alcala and Stewart seems like a solid set up group.

Varland isn't that much of a surprise only because the rotation is razor thin and there's a good chance we'll see him starting again.

Alcala is a mystery. Not sure if there's some issues with him and the coaching staff, or the performance isn't meeting expectations. I'm extremely skeptical that is the latter because if performance was a motivating factor for this team, there's a handful (if not more) of players that I'd call out before Alcala.

[Karbo]

I'm on the record for doubting all the hype about the pen at the beginning of the season. Too many guys were being banked on with very little history of being quality arms.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'm on the record for doubting all the hype about the pen at the beginning of the season. Too many guys were being banked on with very little history of being quality arms.

Yeah, pretty much. I did drink the Kool-Aid but I shouldn't have. Other than Duran, Jax, Stewart and Sands (maybe), would any of these bullpen arms find a ML job outside of the Twins?

[mikelink45]

Too true and too sad.  Varland is not looking like the next SP the way he is pitching so the BP is a better option and Festa will be next man up.  Alcala and Varland at least provide younger arms with some future.  All these scrapheap signings are getting boring and old!

Our FO gurus have given us the following SP: Archer, Bundy, Lynn, Hill, Bailey, Happ, Shoemaker, and Adalberto Mejia. 

In the BP we have Dyson, Robles, Colome, Barraclough, Barnes and Jackson and all the others in the BP today and so many that the names are a blur.

Yet we hired this FO for their pitching acumen.  

[USAFChief]

52 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Best bullpen in baseball.

That bit of nonsense originated at Fangraphs, I believe.

Heh.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

That bit of nonsense originated at Fangraphs, I believe.

Heh.

Yup. It was probably music to Rocco's ears. Analytics! 

[USAFChief]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I will say the practice of not spending on the lowest guys in your pen isn't a crazy strategy. Finding guys with a pitch that can be dominant (slider or any other) who you can get for cheap is pretty standard for teams these days. Relievers are just too volatile

I disagree with both statements.

"Not spending," AKA trying to get by without talent, isn't a good idea for any part of your team, but when it's the part of your team responsible for run prevention the last 4 innings of every game it's particularly damaging.

I also disagree that relievers are more "volatile" than other players. Good relievers are better than bad relievers. Maybe in the 60 IP typical sample size, at first glance it doesn't look that way, but that isn't volatility. That's random small sample variance and not something to count on.

 

[Seth Stohs]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Too true and too sad.  Varland is not looking like the next SP the way he is pitching so the BP is a better option and Festa will be next man up.  Alcala and Varland at least provide younger arms with some future.  All these scrapheap signings are getting boring and old!

Our FO gurus have given us the following SP: Archer, Bundy, Lynn, Hill, Bailey, Happ, Shoemaker, and Adalberto Mejia. 

In the BP we have Dyson, Robles, Colome, Barraclough, Barnes and Jackson and all the others in the BP today and so many that the names are a blur.

Yet we hired this FO for their pitching acumen.  

Adding Varland and Alcala to the bullpen would make a ton of sense, though I definitely get sticking with Varland as a starter. 

As for the SP mentioned: Mejia was nothing like the others. The Twins were in a different spot during those years and needed guys who could eat innings while other guys were developed. Now, instead of going to veterans with no upside but innings eaters, they are trusting the likes of Ryan, Ober, Varland, SWR, Festa, and eventually Raya (and some others like Matthews, Morris, Ohl, etc.). 

The Jackson signing was baffling to me right from the start (other than it being that Jharel Cotton role). Dyson was really good until that trade and he let people know he was hurt... and we found out he's a horrible person. Robles and Colome were solid pitchers. Barraclough was just like 99% of all minor-league free agent reliever signings. Every year, every team signs a few of them and hopes they don't have to use them too much and if they do, hopefully one turns out really good (like Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar when he came back to the org, etc.).  I don't know who Barnes is. Totally blanking on relievers with that name. 

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Why the focus on Wittgren and not Blewett?

And, along with Wittgren, they've signed another Cleveland starter, Adam Plutko. He's working in Fort Myers to get ready for an assignment somewhere. 

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Why the focus on Wittgren and not Blewett?

Wittgren was signed after the season had started and accelerated through the system. Think he's being prioritized a bit.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Wittgren is a nothing burger. Quit fooling around & bring up Varland & Alcala.

Alcala yes, but Varland has been pretty awful.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I disagree with both statements.

"Not spending," AKA trying to get by without talent, isn't a good idea for any part of your team, but when it's the part of your team responsible for run prevention the last 4 innings of every game it's particularly damaging.

I also disagree that relievers are more "volatile" than other players. Good relievers are better than bad relievers. Maybe in the 60 IP typical sample size, at first glance it doesn't look that way, but that isn't volatility. That's random small sample variance and not something to count on.

 

I disagree that "not spending" is the same as "trying to get by without talent."

If the sample size isn't going to change then it is volatility. Their job is always going to be to throw 60 IP. Some years they're going to be good in those 60 innings, some they aren't. That's the nature of relief pitching. It's volatile because it's a small sample, but that doesn't make it not volatile. Their performance can shift dramatically year to year (because it's a small sample) without being easily predicted. The definition of volatility is "a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably." Relief pitchers are volatile.

Edwin Diaz is a timely example of both of these things. The Mets spent ($102 million) but he's been terrible so he's no longer trusted to close games. They had traded for him in 2019 (gave up a ton for him and old man Cano) and he was terrible and lost his closer role. The nature of relief pitching is small sample, and it causes their performances to be volatile. 

[bean5302]

Not sure why anybody cares what the bullpen does when the starter gives up 7 runs. It's just not relevant.

[Patzky]

Not sure about the accuracy but MLB said Boushley was pushing four seamers by at 89 mph last night.. 

[1985Fan]

I would add the question of who is telling pitchers what pitch to throw and when? I’m concerned about Durans comment after giving up Sundays walkoff home run that he was just an employee following orders (I’m paraphrasing). Who called for a curve when he had just given up a game losing home run on Friday night on a curve? From his comment, it sounds like he didn’t agree with the call. You want your best relief arm confident in the pitch call with the game on the line. I thought pitchers had final say on pitches. It sounds as if calls are being made outside of the catcher or pitcher. That is extremely concerning to me. Even I know that Duran should be throwing his best pitch in do or die situations and it seemed obvious from the previous home run that Cleveland was sitting on his curve. If he’s still hurt and can’t throw his fastball at his normal velocity, then why is not on the DL? If Vasquez called for the curve, that is another question as to why he’s in the lineup. If he can’t hit and is making dumb calls, then why is Rocco playing him? 

[Danchat]

59 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Robles and Colome were solid pitchers.

Were they for the Twins? Colome and Robles both had WHIP of about 1.4 with us, and both of their careers were over pretty quickly after that. Colome may have been overhated based upon his blown saves but his numbers are still not good. I thought Robles pitched better than he did but the walks were bad with him.

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

I don't know who Barnes is. Totally blanking on relievers with that name. 

Charlie Barnes is the only one I can think of, but he was a starter.

[Whitey333]

I find it strange that the Twins continually short change the bullpen each year.  If you are using your bullpen to finish up the last 30 or 40% of each ball game.  They better be good.  Bullpen have become increasingly important in recent years as "modern analytics" dictates that 6 or 7 innings for a starting pitcher is now the norm.  That it's meant to be such a good thing to go 6 innings.  It used to be a starting pitcher wasn't doing his job if he didn't pitch a complete game or at least have that as his realistic goal each game.  Then the bullpen was clearly secondary and you could afford to cut costs there.  It's funny how we demand less and less of our starting pitchers inbtodays game.  Yet we pay them more than ever.  Being paid amongst the highest players on the team.  And yet they get injured at a record pace.  We place so much more importance on today's  game for the bullpen but teams use and abuse them and pay them poorly compared to other players.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

And, along with Wittgren, they've signed another Cleveland starter, Adam Plutko. He's working in Fort Myers to get ready for an assignment somewhere. 

2.17 HR/9?  Plutko would fit right in here....

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Alcala yes, but Varland has been pretty awful.

Limited sample size, granted, but Varland showed out pretty well out of the 'pen last year.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Alcala yes, but Varland has been pretty awful.

I know but IMO Varland's problem is more esteem than anything else. If brought to the MLB BP, he'd settle right in.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I also do not understand the treatment or usage of Alcala. He could be a real good one inning high octane guy, but Rocco uses him to throw 50 pitches in multi inning mop up roles? Wtf? Also, Theilbar does looked cooked at this point and Okert doesn't inspire confidence either. Funderburk might be the best lefty on the team. I think it's time to call up Varland and stick him in the pen like last year. Varland Alcala and Stewart seems like a solid set up group.

NOBODY ELSE WAS AVAILABLE & Alcala, unfortunately, got a bad call that should have been strike 3 but wasn’t. Then he didn’t get anybody out. I don’t understand why he has no responsibility in the length of his outing (pitch total)??? He went down because he needed a break and he has options - many others do not have options. Tired of the poor Alcala comments - it’s professional sports. He’ll be back shortly…..,,wish him nothing but the best!!