Make It Official! Twins 3, White Sox 2: Clutch Kepler, Steely Thielbar Slam Door on Sox

[Karbo]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Would you prefer to throw away last night's game in order to save pitcher's for today's game? Pretty sure Rocco gets buried for that, so guess there's no way for him to win. Jax faced the top of the lineup in the 8th and Thielbar came in with 2 lefty hitters on tap for the 9th. Seems perfectly fine usage, 

Tight game and a good win with quiet bats. Ryan came out slow but really settled down for a good outing on a night when he wasn't getting the usual levels of K's. Nice to see the team turn a couple of double plays behind him.

IMO either Ryan or Thielbar in the 7th, then mix in Jax and Stewart to end. I didn't mean Jax shouldn't have pitched. But if they don't activate Duran tonight, they could be in trouble. They don't to use Stewart on back to backs often, Thielbar is still building up so he would be doubtful. SWR pitching so they probably will need at least 3 from the pen. Do you feel comfortable with the others closing out a close game in the 9th? I don't, at least not yet.

[Linus]

Don’t look now but Miranda is playing a steadier third base than in the past. Last night he picked up a hard hit grounder and gave a perfect feed to Farmer to turn two. Anything less and the runner at first would be safe. 
Ryan did a great job getting the job done without his best command. Lots of fastballs not quite up enough in the zone and his sweeper was all over the place. His split has turned into an important pitch. 
Another bad strike zone last night. Thankfully it was bad for both teams. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Nice win especially with the offense going pretty stagnant for the majority of the game.  Great to see leadoff double by Buxton in 9th and then Kepler coming up clutch with go ahead line drive RBI single.

Can't agree with headline, ' Thielbar slams the door in 9th' as he allowed a 1-out walk and then a single to Grossman on an 0-2 count to move things to indigestion time.  Glad to see he finished off their rookie catcher relying on his curveball.

Will be feeling much better when Duran (hopefully this weekend) is back as our closer.  Adding Topa to the bullpen mix will make for some interesting decisions.  

My 2 cents with looming additions of Duran and Topa:

1.  Funderburk to SP:  Tough call as he's performed significantly better than Okert.  He has options remaining, wheras I don't believe Okert does.  If either Okert or Thielbar need an IL stint, Funderburk will quickly be back as I'm sure Baldelli wants a second LHP in the pen.

2.  DFA Jay Jackson:  Nothing against Jackson, but imo, Bowman has pitched better and is four years younger.

 

 

 

 

 

They are paying Jackson more - more experience which at various times, has value - he’s got an ERA of 4.30 early in season….14.2 innings with 17K’s ……don’t see him going anywhere until they may trade him in July if still “average”.

Pretty sure Bowman will be dfa’d, without some mysterious injury to someone. I guess one other possibility is Option Sands to stretch out and let Bowman have his spot………I think Funderburk is more valuable on the 26 man though.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I struggle with Ryan and Thielbar having the same WPA in this game.  Any tough situations Caleb gets credit for he would also get the blame for.  You can't pitch yourself into a save situation.

Joe doesn't get appropriate credit for 6 innings of loss avoidance. 

Duran, on the other hand.  All the WPA tomorrow.

When I look at WPA my mind just reverts to “whatever” ……,often doesn’t seem to add up.

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO either Ryan or Thielbar in the 7th, then mix in Jax and Stewart to end. I didn't mean Jax shouldn't have pitched. But if they don't activate Duran tonight, they could be in trouble. They don't to use Stewart on back to backs often, Thielbar is still building up so he would be doubtful. SWR pitching so they probably will need at least 3 from the pen. Do you feel comfortable with the others closing out a close game in the 9th? I don't, at least not yet.

It looks like the plan is to activate Duran.  

[USAFChief]

34 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

 The three outs are the down slopes and contribute positively to Thielbar’s WPA. The two baserunner’s slope up and contribute negatively to his WPA. In the end they balance out and his final WPA is the same as it would have been if he had struck out the side. The Twins probability of winning went from 83.6% to start the bottom of the 9th to 100% at the end. The difference is Thielbar’s win probability added.

I dont think this is accurate.

Three positive events (outs), combined with 2 negative events (baserunners), aren't equal to 3 positive events. For example:

1 + (-1) + 1 +(-1) +1 

Does not equal 

1 + 1 +1

Both mathematically and intuitively, getting 3 outs with zero baserunners in a one run game does not have the same "win probability added" as getting 3 outs while allowing a walk and a hit.

Your own explanation proves that (the "up slopes.")

WPA is worthless, but let's at least understand it.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

Nice win, but why is Thielbar closing games? 

He’s got Stewart & Jax used up in their “usual spots” to get the team to the 9th with “a chance”. Somebody has to pitch the 9th - 37 years old & rested!!

How about not shaking off Vazquez twice, with an 0-2 count, to throw an average fastball that got ripped into the OF & put them into a real pinch? I almost jumped through my TV screen to get to the mound! His curve is so unique to today’s hitters - USE IT…….particularly when ahead in the count!!!! His stubbornness almost cooked the Team. Credit to him for clearing his head for the last guy …..that he struck out with the Deuce.

[JD-TWINS]

Nice win - not always going to score a bunch (coming off 16 & 11). The SOX big lefty had nice stuff and I was ecstatic when they removed him after 5 innings!

Q: When will Castro start being instructed to bunt, a minimum of twice per week, or no paycheck………..he had a swinging bunt hit last night. He puts pressure on people with his speed. Need him on base more! Teams continually play him with SS up the middle and 3B at shallow SS spot when he’s batting LH. Put the ball on the ground and get on base!!! Left handed pitchers fall toward 3B naturally, so pushing the ball toward 1B makes the first baseman make some Circus Play to get him out. Gotta add to the arsenal soon.

[PDX Twin]

12 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Can't agree with headline, ' Thielbar slams the door in 9th' as he allowed a 1-out walk and then a single to Grossman on an 0-2 count to move things to indigestion time.  Glad to see he finished off their rookie catcher relying on his curveball.

And, according to your table above, he did it all on zero pitches! Very efficient! If we could teach the starters to do that, they wouldn't need a bullpen.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I dont think this is accurate.

Three positive events (outs), combined with 2 negative events (baserunners), aren't equal to 3 positive events. For example:

1 + (-1) + 1 +(-1) +1 

Does not equal 

1 + 1 +1

Both mathematically and intuitively, getting 3 outs with zero baserunners in a one run game does not have the same "win probability added" as getting 3 outs while allowing a walk and a hit.

Your own explanation proves that (the "up slopes.")

WPA is worthless, but let's at least understand it.

If you're going to argue math, at least argue with good faith. Not every event has an equal value, so your equation is just not a good example at all. Not even close.

[jmlease1]

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO either Ryan or Thielbar in the 7th, then mix in Jax and Stewart to end. I didn't mean Jax shouldn't have pitched. But if they don't activate Duran tonight, they could be in trouble. They don't to use Stewart on back to backs often, Thielbar is still building up so he would be doubtful. SWR pitching so they probably will need at least 3 from the pen. Do you feel comfortable with the others closing out a close game in the 9th? I don't, at least not yet.

Wouldn't be my first choice, but Stewart is probably available and I suspect they knew Duran was coming off the IL. I'd also rather have Alcala up than Jackson or Bowman, but I understand why they're trying to keep the depth up. With Duran back we're fine, but any time you have a couple of close games in a row we're going to be stretching the bullpen a little and needing someone we'd rather have only throwing middle relief/lower-leverage spots get some higher impact work.

Bullpen has been really good so far this season. Thielbar has been the "worst" and he seems to be settling back in after a rough start. Jackson's the next "worst" and he hasn't been exactly bad, more just kind of another guy. It's going to be great to have Duran back.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you're going to argue math, at least argue with good faith. Not every event has an equal value, so your equation is just not a good example at all. Not even close.

The actual numbers are irrelevant. 

Arguing that three positive events added with two negative events is equal to the same  three positive events added alone is nonsense. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

The actual numbers are irrelevant. 

Arguing that three positive events added with two negative events is equal to the same  three positive events added alone is nonsense. 

Except they aren't the same events any more. Because the circumstances are different. 

[JD-TWINS]

Gotta say Santana homering from both sides 4 times in 5 games was not something I saw coming.

How about MAX KEPLER!!! He was 1-20 before going on the IL ……….he’s been back since the 22nd and taken his average from .050 to .244 over the last 8 games. He has FIVE two out RBI since returning. The definition of clutch! Oh, and he never looks like the Angels/White Sox outfielders going after a fly ball, thank goodness!!

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The actual numbers are irrelevant. 

Arguing that three positive events added with two negative events is equal to the same  three positive events added alone is nonsense. 

The difference is:

1+1+1 = 3

1-1+2-1+2=3

The baserunner allowed gives the subsequent out more WPA value.

[AlwaysinModeration]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Arguing that three positive events added with two negative events is equal to the same  three positive events added alone is nonsense. 

Getting an out with the bases empty is not as valuable as getting an out with a runner on base.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Getting an out with the bases empty is not as valuable as getting an out with a runner on base.

I thougt we were talking about win probability added.

A pitcher who walks the bases loaded, then gets 3 Ks, added the same win probability as a pitcher who skips the 3 walks?

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I thougt we were talking about win probability added.

A pitcher who walks the bases loaded, then gets 3 Ks, added the same win probability as a pitcher who skips the 3 walks?

 

Yes.  He moved the outcome from 83% likely win for the Twins to 100%.  In between that he moved it higher by recording outs, and lower by allowing baserunners, but at the end of the game, he got to the same place.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If he had been relieved when he gave up the single to Grossman, he would have had negative WPA, because the White Sox were about 20% chance to win there.  By putting two runners on base, he made getting that last out way more valuable.

[rv78]

It's great to beat up on the two worst teams in the AL, but that only means you could still be the 3rd worst team in the AL. I'll start believing when they start beating good teams. 

[blindeke]

Bullpen usage chart is off; shows Stewart having pitched when it should be Thielbar.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

So sad to see Martin sent down.  He needs to be given time to show what he has.  Could they send down Farmer or Margot?

Both Farmer and Margot have more than 5 years of major league service time, and by MLB rules can not be sent to the minors without their permission (which I doubt either would offer) even if they have minor league options remaining (I think they both might).

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

 

Dang it, the TD user interface did it again and let me double-post.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s got Stewart & Jax used up in their “usual spots” to get the team to the 9th with “a chance”. Somebody has to pitch the 9th - 37 years old & rested!!

How about not shaking off Vazquez twice, with an 0-2 count, to throw an average fastball that got ripped into the OF & put them into a real pinch? I almost jumped through my TV screen to get to the mound! His curve is so unique to today’s hitters - USE IT…….particularly when ahead in the count!!!! His stubbornness almost cooked the Team. Credit to him for clearing his head for the last guy …..that he struck out with the Deuce.

Are you referring to Grossmans single to right?  It was a bloop hit - Thielbar got the fastball in and he fought it off. That pitch to that spot is going to be an out most of the time. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The actual numbers are irrelevant. 

Arguing that three positive events added with two negative events is equal to the same  three positive events added alone is nonsense. 

Going into the bottom of the ninth the Twins had a fixed win probability. BR had their win probability at 79%. At the end of the game the Twins had a win probability of 100%. Doesn’t that additional 21% have to belong to Thielbar no matter the path he took to get there?

His path happened to be +9, -10, +11, -10, +21. Had there been three consecutive outs it might have been something like +9, +7, +5. Either way doesn’t it need to add to 21 in the end?

BR credits Thielbar with a WPA of .209 in yesterday’s box score. If he had blown the lead it would have been -.791. AJ Minter blew the save and lost the game in the ninth for the Braves yesterday and his WPA was -.805 as they had a slightly greater win probability entering the ninth.

All this for a pretty useless measure that at best tells a story of the game but is not helpful at all for player evaluation or prediction of future performance.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I thougt we were talking about win probability added.

A pitcher who walks the bases loaded, then gets 3 Ks, added the same win probability as a pitcher who skips the 3 walks?

 

Yes, it is about effectiveness, not efficiency. 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Wouldn't be my first choice, but Stewart is probably available and I suspect they knew Duran was coming off the IL. I'd also rather have Alcala up than Jackson or Bowman, but I understand why they're trying to keep the depth up. With Duran back we're fine, but any time you have a couple of close games in a row we're going to be stretching the bullpen a little and needing someone we'd rather have only throwing middle relief/lower-leverage spots get some higher impact work.

Bullpen has been really good so far this season. Thielbar has been the "worst" and he seems to be settling back in after a rough start. Jackson's the next "worst" and he hasn't been exactly bad, more just kind of another guy. It's going to be great to have Duran back.

It will be interesting to see who gets optioned or sent out.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Would his WPA be the same if he had struck out the side? Is it the difference between the time he entered and the time he left?

 

13 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm not sure, I'm going to dig into the math tomorrow.  Walking a guy and giving up a hit increased the leverage index which is part of the equation.  Seems like a closer that's always a wild ride would be off the charts WPA.  

WPA is a summation of the change in win probability after each plate appearance that player is involved in. So, Joe Ryan doesn't get any credit or blame for changes in win probability when the Twins are at bat. That's not to say Joe Ryan's WPA is independent of what happens when the Twins are at bat, though. For instance, on Saturday both Cole Irvin and Charlie Morton pitched 7 shutout innings. However, because the Orioles put up 3 runs in the 4th and 2 in the 5th Cole Irvin actually has a substantially lower WPA (0.292) than Charlie Morton (0.456) did because the Braves game was tied the entire time Morton was pitching - win probability swings bigger when the game is close.

Leverage index isn't a factor in WPA. It's analogous to the concept that the change in win probability gets larger and larger towards the end of games in that it tries to quantify those swings, but it's a separate metric. 

Also there's a typo in the article, Thielbar actually had a 0.206 WPA per Fangraphs. 

When Thielbar entered the game, the Twins had a 79.4% Win Probability. When he exited the game, the Twins had a 100% win probability. 

Joe Ryan's WPA by inning:

1st: -0.149

2nd: +0.052 

3rd: +0.055

4th: +0.061

5th: +0.067

6th: +0.077

For a total of 0.163 (rounding error, 0.164 is the correct number from Fangraphs)

 

I see I'm a little late to the WPA discussion party, gotta remember to refresh the comments....

Edited April 30, 2024 by CCHOF5yearstoolate

[Jeff K]

15 hours ago, big dog said:

I apologize for saying I thought the Twins needed to replace Santana. Unless he reads TD and wanted to prove me wrong. In which case, Carlos you are still a washed-up bum. You have to hit 3 more HRs this week to convince me.

I'm right there with you.  I've been negative about Santana and he is heating up!  Mea Culpa

[bean5302]

Keep in mind with WPA, time frame counts as well as the percentage chance of winning or losing begins to oscillate with half innings especially towards the end of the game because even a single run in a 0-0 or 2-2 (for that matter) game makes a big change in win likelihood in say the 7th or 8th or 9th inning.