Tigers 6, Twins 1: Varland Rocked, Offense Remains Dormant in Loss

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins ended their losing streak at five games on Saturday, but a familiar set of problems presented themselves: The offense let a starting pitcher get into a rhythm, and Louie Varland looked like he needs to iron out some things in St. Paul.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Following a nervous win to end a five-game slide on Saturday, the Twins turned to their most nervous pitcher, Louie Varland, in Sunday's rubber match. He was out of sorts from the outset, and the Twins offense didn't have anywhere near the firepower to back him up.

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland: 2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K (74 Pitches, 35 Strikes, 47.3%)
Home Runs: Austin Martin (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Varland (-.245), Martin (-.116), Kyle Farmer (-.087)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):


Varland started to game off by walking the first two hitters he faced. This was undoubtedly a reaction to his performances thus far in 2024, in which he has left far too many pitches in the zone in pitcher's counts. You can overcorrect in this game, and Varland may have found the approach he employed against the Orioles and Dodgers may have worked just fine against the far more mortal (outside of Kerry Carpenter) Tigers lineup.

If you dabble in writing Louie Varland hate-fiction, you could script the rest of his outing. Spencer Torkelson smashed a grounder to Willi Castro that the shortstop bungled just a bit, barely getting the out at second thanks to a good stretch by Edouard Julien. Carpenter got jammed, but hot hitters will hit, and he dumped a single down the right field line to score the first run. Matt Vierling then walked, Buddy Kennedy hit a sacrifice fly, and then Varland fell behind Parker Meadows 3-1. His fifth pitch was a ball, but Meadows swung through it and then took strike three looking, ending a 39-pitch first inning.

Opposing the Twins was former number one overall pick, Casey Mize. Mize missed most of the 2022 season and the entire 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His stuff doesn't appear to be all the way back, but he did hit 97 MPH and got better as the outing went along.

The Twins did take some good at-bats in their half of the first, loading the bases with a Trevor Larnach walk, Byron Buxton single and a walk to Alex Kirilloff. Austin Martin lined out softly, and Willi Castro flied out to let Mize off the hook.

Varland somehow walked Javier Baez leading off the second inning but managed his way out of it by getting a charitable strike two call on Jake Rogers (who struck out later in the at-bat), and then coaxing a long fly out from Riley Greene.

The third inning started with a single from Torkelson and a hit-by-pitch from Carpenter. After a fortuitous double play off the bat of Vierling, Buddy Kennedy launched a Varland cutter 104 MPH into the seats in left-field, ending Varland's day.

He certainly has the velocity and movement profile to succeed as a starter, but Varland is no nibbler, and trying to tickle the edges of the zone with four to five pitches seems a recipe doomed to fail. He would be better served finding a middle ground between today and his first three starts of the year. It remains to be seen if Varland gets that chance next turn through the rotation, as he has never looked worse than today and Simeon Woods-Richardson definitely has more helium down at Triple-A.

Meanwhile, Mize looked hardly dominant, inducing only two whiffs the first time through the lineup, both on fastballs. Yet again, however, the Twins struggled to capitalize on the opportunities that presented themselves. By the fifth inning, Mize started relying on his splitter, striking out Julien and Larnach after Christian Vazquez led off with a single.

The Twins' bullpen was a bright spot once again, with Cole Sands and Matt Bowman providing scoreless relief through the sixth and (theoretically) keeping the Twins in the game if their offense could break through.

They couldn't and Jay Jackson entered in the seventh and nearly served up a two-run home run to Torkelson (it ended up as run-scoring a double) before recovering and working a scoreless eighth inning.
 

Noted Twin killer Tyler Holton shut down the Twins in the seventh and eighth innings. The lefty worked quickly and gave the Twins nothing to hit, improving his career line against the Twins to 15 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run with 18 strikeouts.

The Twins tried to make things interesting in the ninth, down 6-0. Martin launched his first big league home run, Castro got a squib double and Santana walked.

 

The Good:

• Sands and Bowman both look confident, and are slinging some top-tier breaking stuff at opponents with decent command.
• Buxton looks less overmatched, rifling a single through the left side and putting the ball in play his other three at-bats.
• Martin kept his hitting streak alive in the ninth with the first home run of his career off Tigers reliever Alex Faedo.

The Bad:

• Kyle Farmer continues to struggle in his at-bats, leaving several men on base in today's game.
• Varland didn't have many positives from his outing.
• Jackson and Caleb Thielbar continue to struggle, and remain the only bullpen arms that are not pitching quite well at the moment.

What’s Next: Chris Paddack (0-1, 8.36 ERA) faces off against Jonathan Cannon (0-0, 1.80 ERA) as the Twins open a three game series against the White Sox at Target Field. The White Sox were supposed to be bad this year, and they are worse than that, so if the Twins hope to get off the mat at some point this season, there is no better time.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Bowman	0	0	0	3	30	33
Jackson	0	0	0	0	32	32
Stewart	17	0	15	0	0	32
Jax	10	0	21	12	0	43
Thielbar	0	0	17	0	22	39
Okert	18	0	0	17	0	35
Funderburk	0	0	2	22	0	24
Sands	0	0	0	10	23	33

 

 

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[Ricky Vaughn]

 

Varland looks like he's trying to squeeze the baseball down to to a golf ball. Either put him in the pen for a while, or send him down so he can relax and get his act back together

[Patzky]

I'm starting to see Bowman as a potential de Leon or Pagan type, and wonder if there's a regular spot for him if the team decides to part ways with Thielbar.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

They are missing major hitters in Correa, Lewis, and lesser extend Kepler in their line-up.  The remaining hitters clearly are not picking any of the slack.  Varland looks completely over-whelmed today.  I'm probably stating the obvious but cutting the pay roll by 30 million definitely impacted talent level.  Which might have help mecate the impact of the injuries.   This is starting to get ugly.  I am kind questioning all this platooning too. Our pinch-hitting statistics are horrendous.  Maybe try going with a more set line-up is worth a try.

[KirbyDome89]

FWIW this Tigers team is equally as inept offensively as the Twins. Detroit had to essentially give away the 2nd game of this series for the Twins to avoid a sweep. Ugly.

[D.C Twins]

Injured hitters will be back over the next month or two..... there are no such reinforcements coming for SP. 

We are one SP injury away (Lopez, Ryan or Ober) from this entire season bottoming out. 

If it does, it is going to be hard to 'pass' the White Sox for the #1 draft pick as they seem committed setting the MLB season loss record this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

With as bad as this line-up is, the rotation almost needs to be perfect & Varland wasn't. From the beginning, I stated that Varland should start out in the BP. IMO SWR should be called up & see what he can do, have Varland in as long relief & limit Paddack innings.

? How is Martin listed as 2nd least WAR when he hit a HR?

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

? How is Martin listed as 2nd least WAR when he hit a HR?

His HR came when the game was all but decided.  Earlier in the game, before it could be known what the Twins pitchers would give up, he 1) lined out with the bases loaded in the first inning, 2) popped out with a runner on base in the fourth, 3) flied out with nobody on in the sixth.  He twice had ducks on the pond and didn't come through.  That hurt.  (Also a quibble, what was reported wasn't WAR but win probability.  Yeah, his WAR for the game probably looks fine.)

[John Belinski]

Varland just doesn't look like he can pitch in the majors. Send him down so we don't keep over using the bullpen.  He has no out pitch and his control is poor. He walks 3 batters in first inning. After the first inning the game was over with him pitching.  Twins management looks like they can not judge talent. Terry Ryan was a person who could judge talent, but it appears the Twins have no one like him.

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

Is it too early to start shopping some players at the trade deadline?

[Blyleven2011]

Sundays matinee game ....

Decent crowd , sunny , perfect for baseball  until the twins took the field ...

 

Deflate gate in the first innings , varland walks first two batters  and I guess we all knew it was going to be a long afternoon and twins load bases in bottom half of 1st inning with 1 out and failed to hit a sacrifice fly or clutch hit  and I guess we really knew then it was going to be a really long day trying to mount a comeback ......

Varland , Worst I've seen him pitch  ,  I think he gets 1 more start to figure out a new plan  , he was definitely not confident  in attacking the hitters  ...

Varland is a hard worker , can't give up on him as a starter quite yet , everyone knows he was impressive in the bullpen  towards the end of last year and that could be his nitch , but not yet ...

[Jocko87]

Varland was clearly trying to adjust something and there were several really nice pitches mixed in with the stuff 2 feet out of the zone.

He only threw one pitch over 95 all day and that was 96. I'm assuming no arm issue but rather trying to locate 95 and use the 98 in a big spot. (Spoiler, there was no big spot)

To me the attempted adjustments are very encouraging but it's also a big change. He's probably got to figure it out in St Paul but I'm bullish long term.

He just learned 99, now he has to learn to pitch with it.

[OvertheHill]

39 minutes ago, Brazilian Twins Fan said:

Is it too early to start shopping some players at the trade deadline?

Never too early but who exactly can they sell high on, Bowman? 

[Fezig]

Rocco is the one that needs to look in the mirror and be honest with himself. 

 

[USAFChief]

This team is on pace for a -200 run differential this season.

The 2016 Twins finished 59-103 with a -167 run differential. 

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Varland was clearly trying to adjust something and there were several really nice pitches mixed in with the stuff 2 feet out of the zone.

He only threw one pitch over 95 all day and that was 96. I'm assuming no arm issue but rather trying to locate 95 and use the 98 in a big spot. (Spoiler, there was no big spot)

To me the attempted adjustments are very encouraging but it's also a big change. He's probably got to figure it out in St Paul but I'm bullish long term.

He just learned 99, now he has to learn to pitch with it.

Call me crazy, but inability to throw strikes, combined with inability to get anyone out when you DO throw strikes isn't very encouraging. 

[jkcarew]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Call me crazy, but inability to throw strikes, combined with inability to get anyone out when you DO throw strikes isn't very encouraging. 

You forget about the propensity for giving up the long ball.

But other than those things...

[Old Crow]

Another lackluster performance across the board made for a boring afternoon at the park.  

[jkcarew]

Reality check on Varland...

Last year he threw 68 innings. Meanwhile, nobody in the league that threw more than 55 innings gave up HR's as frequently as Varland. Despite all the hard contact, he managed an ERA only slightly below league average, with the help of a friendly BABiP against...again, despite the hard contact.

Is he cable of having some good outings? Probably. But nobody...least of all Twins management...should be all that surprised at the early results this year. There was a reason much of the narrative in the off-season was that he was in line to maybe be a #5 behind whoever the Twins signed (turns out no), and behind Paddock (yikes).

[Fred]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

You forget about the propensity for giving up the long ball.

But other than those things...

What I saw was, when he threw a strike, it was usually over the middle of the plate.

[mikelink45]

Varland is pressing.  SWR needs to come up and Louie needs to go down and have some success and catch his breath.  I really want him to succeed, but right now keeping him in the rotation is detrimental to him and the team. 

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

Rocco is the one that needs to look in the mirror and be honest with himself. 

 

You’re speaking in general, right? There’s certainly nothing Rocco could have done to change today’s outcome.

And even at that, I wouldn’t suggest any ONE person got the club into this spot, nor will it be ONE to get them out.

[RpR]

The Twins are playing at the same level they played at in Spring Training.  I really not surprised as it is a team sport and when the team play stinks so will the record.

I am sad and dissapointed that Buxton, Julien and Santana have fallen so far from Spring Training numbers.

[OvertheHill]

Apropos of nothing…

In yesterday’s game, they very briefly cut to a camera shot of hitting (?) coach Popkins talking with AK in the dugout while he was being pinch hit for by Santana. Here’s my version of how that went…..

Popkins: Sorry Alex, but the Big Guy says until you start hitting lefties, we’re going to pinch hit for you.

Alex: But Coach, if I NEVER get a plate appearance against a lefty, how am I going to be able to hit against them?

Popkins: Er….you might have a point. We’ll bring that up in the off-season. 

[Jocko87]

54 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Call me crazy, but inability to throw strikes, combined with inability to get anyone out when you DO throw strikes isn't very encouraging. 

I mean, you crazy, but that's a different discussion.

He's going to light up AAA but won't be back as a starter until they see him getting people out with good strikes. (Or injury). It's there and we are watching it unlock.  It's kinda like when Jack Jack fights the racoon in the Incredibles.

[jkcarew]

27 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It's kinda like when Jack Jack fights the racoon in the Incredibles.

Didn’t see it.

Does Jack Jack get hit incredibly hard over and over? And over? Until someone mercifully takes him out of the fight?

[Danchat]

It is wild how much better Varland looked last year in the pen compared to how he looks in the rotation. Though it was only 9 innings (felt like it was at least 20?), in that stretch he gave up 5 hits and got 15 strikeouts. His home is likely in the bullpen... but too bad the starter depth is too weak to let him move back there.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, OvertheHill said:

Apropos of nothing…

In yesterday’s game, they very briefly cut to a camera shot of hitting (?) coach Popkins talking with AK in the dugout while he was being pinch hit for by Santana. Here’s my version of how that went…..

Popkins: Sorry Alex, but the Big Guy says until you start hitting lefties, we’re going to pinch hit for you.

Alex: But Coach, if I NEVER get a plate appearance against a lefty, how am I going to be able to hit against them?

Popkins: Er….you might have a point. We’ll bring that up in the off-season. 

In Spring Training his BA against Lefties was .000 in 12 at bat with 4 Ks; unless the Twins have decided the season is over, if he can't do it there it would be stupid to think he could learn it here.

The results would probably screw up his train of thought and ruin what he does have going.

[ChermesZ]

Isn’t Castro 0-14 with men in scoring position with 9ks?  Shouldn’t he be pinch hit for?

[MMMordabito]

.500 or Fire Baldelli ... See ya Twins