It's Imperative That the Twins Tame the Tigers Now

[Ted Schwerzler]

With a postponement of Thursday’s tilt against the Detroit Tigers, Minnesota will now face their AL Central foes seven times in the next 10 days. Rocco Baldelli’s club hasn’t gotten off to a quick start, and their schedule has been disjointed, with both planned and unplanned off days. If they want to right the ship, it starts by taming the Tigers.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

A year ago, Rocco Baldelli watched as his lineup virtually sleepwalked through the first half of the season. It really wasn’t until Royce Lewis was inserted that the group found something to jumpstart it. That same narrative has played out again over the first 10 games of the 2024 season, and Lewis won’t be around for the next couple of months to act as a savior.

Following a tough series that ended on a high note against the Dodgers, Minnesota must find a way to harness that momentum and lock in for this stretch of divisional games. Under the new scheduling parameters, teams no longer play divisional opponents as often as they previously did. The Twins face Detroit only 13 times this year, meaning more than half of those matchups will come in the next week and a half.

While not a juggernaut, A.J. Hinch's squad started out on the right foot this season. With a 7-4 record, the Tigers have established that they are ready to contend this season. Expected to be among the one or two teams competing with Baldelli’s Twins for the division title, they put themselves in a good position after the first two weeks of the season.

Last year, Minnesota struggled with Detroit more than anyone else in the division. The Twins had a 5-8 record and a -11 run differential against a team they simply couldn’t solve. They dropped two one-run games to the Motor City Kitties, and were shut out twice. What may be worse for the Twins is that despite him making 15 starts in 2023, none of Tarik Skubal’s outings came against them.

Ineptitude against left-handed pitching was a problem last year, and Skubal is among the best in the game, regardless of handedness. He is expected to compete for a Cy Young when the dust on 2024 settles, and figuring him out is a must for Minnesota. Even without Skubal, the Tigers pitching staff allowed just a .666 OPS to the Twins, and Minnesota helped them plenty, with a lopsided 133/41 K/BB.

It is fair to note that the Tigers staff no longer has Eduardo Rodríguez, but a healthy Skubal is quite the come-up. The Twins will get to see Kenta Maeda, a free agent whom they passed on retaining, for the first time in the opposing clubhouse, and he appears to be someone on whom they should tee off. How they fare against Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty could very well be the difference in deciding which way the series goes.

The Twins also must contend with a bit deeper lineup this time around. Javier Báez is still abysmal at the plate, but Minnesota can’t be the reason Spencer Torkelson gets going again. Riley Greene has come on strong, and while they haven’t yet found it, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter are all talented young batsmen. Miguel Cabrera is done holding down the middle of this lineup, and a new wave is looking to make their mark.

Ultimately, the Twins should be better than Detroit. Even without the full complement of their bullpen arms (though Caleb Thielbar and Josh Staumont look close to a return), and even without Lewis. Minnesota should feel confident in each pitching matchup, and the lineup should be looking to get right against most of the Tigers arms. While this is a team on the rise, they don’t appear to be there just yet.

Twins pitching is fourth in the majors by strikeout percentage, while the Tigers are 20th. Detroit also gives up the 12th-highest walk rate, with Minnesota being in the bottom third. So far, there has been far too much swing-and-miss from Minnesota's lineup, but this isn't a team that should overpower or confuse them. Detroit doesn't strike out a ton at the plate, but they don't walk much, either. They also have the third-lowest ISO across the entire sport. Pitchers should feel a level of comfort in being able to pick this group apart.

Having struggled to find consistency against the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers over the past handful of games, this is a stretch where Minnesota can turn the early momentum of their season. Starting strong with a four-game set (including Saturday’s doubleheader) should give Baldelli’s club some momentum before heading to Baltimore on Monday. Returning home and continuing a semblance of dominance over Detroit next weekend would turn the page on lackluster early results from a season ago, and set the stage for a fresh feel in 2024.

With only six games left against the Tigers after the next week and a half, the Twins will see Detroit for just two more series the rest of the way. No matter how close Hinch’s club is to competing for the top spot, Minnesota shouldn’t be looking to give them any hope in the form of a tiebreaker in September, and establishing an identity for the season ahead can begin right now.

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[FlyingFinn]

I've got the Twins winning 3 of 4 from the Tiggers.

[Parfigliano]

Barny Fife says," nip it, nip it, nip it"

[Jocko87]

Counterpoint. It's April.

Lopez v Skubal should be fun for years to come though.

[CRF]

Cut. The. K's. Start. Making. Contact! Put the damn ball in play. It ain't rocket science. 

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Barny Fife says," nip it, nip it, nip it"

in the bud.

[Doctor Gast]

Yes sir Ted, This is an important series. Hope with an extra day off they can get away from the "all or nothing" approach. Gets some key hits & not SO, win some games!

[Karbo]

Is there any news on how Lewis is doing?

[Whitey333]

Yes.  They were sleepwalking the first half of last year only woke up partially enough to win the Central with a number of teams that were more than sleepwalking.   The Twins are sleepwalking so far again this year.  It makes for very boring baseball.  We need to beat up on the Tigers.  I hope we show more drive soon.  They seem to just go through the motions.

[bighat]

49 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Is there any news on how Lewis is doing?

CBS Sports says "Out until at least June 1". 

More conservative predictions have him out until the All-Star Break, mid-July. 

[Blyleven2011]

The Detroit tigers aren't quite there yet ...

The twins definitely aren't quite there yet either  ...

The twins had all spring to prepare for games that count and the batters look lost at there preparation towards the game , the plan continues to hit the ball hard and hit homeruns  , the players don't adjust to situational hitting when they need it ...

If the manager can't make any adjustments during the game , then to guess the players to make adjustments is lunacy ...

A boring start to the season , so much for a fast start  ...

I've been away the past 7 weeks  but have followed the team through spring and the start of the season  ...

We can't continue to go  through just the motions to be considered  a contending team , the manager needs to put some drive into the lineup  , GOOD LUCK WITH THAT ...

[Peter]

3-1 would be great to start road trip but 2-2 is more realistic. I said before I’ll settle for   4-3 but why not 3-1 then 2-1 against Baltimore. Unlike others I’ll watch/support twins no matter what!!! Let’s have a winning road trip and get back to winning/taking back division lead! Go twins!!!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Division can't be won in April, but it can be lost.  The Twins face the Tigers 7 times in the next 10 games.  They are already 4 games out with three teams ahead of them.  The next 10 days could very well make or break the season.

Before you all scream "it's only April", do the math:
Say after 20ish games, the standings look like this (it is not unreasonable to see this):
CLE  15-6
KRC  14-7
DET  13-8
MIN  7-14

If all three teams ahead of them only play .500 ball the rest of the way, the Twins would need to play at a .560 clip (90 win pace) the rest of the season to win the division.

If the division winner ends the season with 89 wins, the Twins need to play at .590 (95 win pace) to win.

Everyone better hope the Twins fix this right now.

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Counterpoint. It's April.

Lopez v Skubal should be fun for years to come though.

Sure, but the Twins don't get to play these seven games against the Tigers later.

[Riverbrian]

50 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The Division can't be won in April, but it can be lost.  The Twins face the Tigers 7 times in the next 10 games.  They are already 4 games out with three teams ahead of them.  The next 10 days could very well make or break the season.

Before you all scream "it's only April", do the math:
Say after 20ish games, the standings look like this (it is not unreasonable to see this):
CLE  15-6
KRC  14-7
DET  13-8
MIN  7-14

If all three teams ahead of them only play .500 ball the rest of the way, the Twins would need to play at a .560 clip (90 win pace) the rest of the season to win the division.

If the division winner ends the season with 89 wins, the Twins need to play at .590 (95 win pace) to win.

Everyone better hope the Twins fix this right now.

All teams slump throughout the season and they do so at different times that are hard to predict.  

As a team your back is squarely against the wall for the entirety of the season when you use up your allotted amount of slump before April has concluded.

If you slump in August... Sorry... you can't... your allotment was used up in April.  

[Battle ur tail off]

12 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Lewis won’t be around for the next couple of months to act as a savior.

 

Wait, what?

A couple months? Have you or anyone else heard this? I knew that was a fairly bad injury, but I didn't think it was going to take him 2.5 months to recover. Does anyone have any updates to this???

[NotAboutWinning]

26 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Wait, what?

A couple months? Have you or anyone else heard this? I knew that was a fairly bad injury, but I didn't think it was going to take him 2.5 months to recover. Does anyone have any updates to this???

They said right from the beginning they weren’t even going to evaluate him for 30 days.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

Is there any news on how Lewis is doing?

There won't be any real update on him until May. He's doing no activity for a month before they re-evaluate him. So likely a minimum of a month and a half from time of injury to earliest return.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

The Twins slow start has come against teams that all off to amazing starts. As of this morning, the Twins are 4-6 against four teams who are a combined 36-15 so far this season and 30-11 against everyone else but the Twins. Their next three series are against opponents that are 22-12 (Detroit counted twice). All together their first seven series this year are against teams with a 58-27 record so far this season. These teams are all off to a hot start to the season. Time will tell which teams are actually good. 

I agree now would be a great time for the Twins to take the next two  series from the Tigers, but I am not as concerned with the start to the season as I would be if losing teams were beating up on the Twins. Here's hoping we go 12-8 over the next 20 games.

 

 

   

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

The Twins slow start has come against teams that all off to amazing starts. As of this morning, the Twins are 4-6 against four teams who are a combined 36-15 so far this season and 30-11 against everyone else but the Twins. Their next three series are against opponents that are 22-12 (Detroit counted twice). All together their first seven series this year are against teams with a 58-27 record so far this season. These teams are all off to a hot start to the season. Time will tell which teams are actually good. 

I agree now would be a great time for the Twins to take the next two  series from the Tigers, but I am not as concerned with the start to the season as I would be if losing teams were beating up on the Twins. Here's hoping we go 12-8 over the next 20 games.

 

 

   

And then, the other side of this is that the Twins were one of the horrible teams that contributed to the fast starts of the opponents, and they are the reason for the fast starts, not the other teams? Except we were 2-1 against KC) I like your angle, though. 12-8? Not very high hopes.

Gloom and doomers relax. 4-6 isn't the end of the world. It's a long season. It is hard to watch all the Ks again, though. I hate that kind of baseball, and can't believe it has happened here. Amazing what can happen if one actually swings at the middle middle pitches instead of watching them, eh, Julian?