It's Imperative That the Twins Tame the Tigers Now

A year ago, Rocco Baldelli watched as his lineup virtually sleepwalked through the first half of the season. It really wasn’t until Royce Lewis was inserted that the group found something to jumpstart it. That same narrative has played out again over the first 10 games of the 2024 season, and Lewis won’t be around for the next couple of months to act as a savior.

Following a tough series that ended on a high note against the Dodgers, Minnesota must find a way to harness that momentum and lock in for this stretch of divisional games. Under the new scheduling parameters, teams no longer play divisional opponents as often as they previously did. The Twins face Detroit only 13 times this year, meaning more than half of those matchups will come in the next week and a half.

While not a juggernaut, A.J. Hinch's squad started out on the right foot this season. With a 7-4 record, the Tigers have established that they are ready to contend this season. Expected to be among the one or two teams competing with Baldelli’s Twins for the division title, they put themselves in a good position after the first two weeks of the season.

Last year, Minnesota struggled with Detroit more than anyone else in the division. The Twins had a 5-8 record and a -11 run differential against a team they simply couldn’t solve. They dropped two one-run games to the Motor City Kitties, and were shut out twice. What may be worse for the Twins is that despite him making 15 starts in 2023, none of Tarik Skubal’s outings came against them.

Ineptitude against left-handed pitching was a problem last year, and Skubal is among the best in the game, regardless of handedness. He is expected to compete for a Cy Young when the dust on 2024 settles, and figuring him out is a must for Minnesota. Even without Skubal, the Tigers pitching staff allowed just a .666 OPS to the Twins, and Minnesota helped them plenty, with a lopsided 133/41 K/BB.

It is fair to note that the Tigers staff no longer has Eduardo Rodríguez, but a healthy Skubal is quite the come-up. The Twins will get to see Kenta Maeda, a free agent whom they passed on retaining, for the first time in the opposing clubhouse, and he appears to be someone on whom they should tee off. How they fare against Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty could very well be the difference in deciding which way the series goes.

The Twins also must contend with a bit deeper lineup this time around. Javier Báez is still abysmal at the plate, but Minnesota can’t be the reason Spencer Torkelson gets going again. Riley Greene has come on strong, and while they haven’t yet found it, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter are all talented young batsmen. Miguel Cabrera is done holding down the middle of this lineup, and a new wave is looking to make their mark.

Ultimately, the Twins should be better than Detroit. Even without the full complement of their bullpen arms (though Caleb Thielbar and Josh Staumont look close to a return), and even without Lewis. Minnesota should feel confident in each pitching matchup, and the lineup should be looking to get right against most of the Tigers arms. While this is a team on the rise, they don’t appear to be there just yet.

Twins pitching is fourth in the majors by strikeout percentage, while the Tigers are 20th. Detroit also gives up the 12th-highest walk rate, with Minnesota being in the bottom third. So far, there has been far too much swing-and-miss from Minnesota's lineup, but this isn't a team that should overpower or confuse them. Detroit doesn't strike out a ton at the plate, but they don't walk much, either. They also have the third-lowest ISO across the entire sport. Pitchers should feel a level of comfort in being able to pick this group apart.

Having struggled to find consistency against the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers over the past handful of games, this is a stretch where Minnesota can turn the early momentum of their season. Starting strong with a four-game set (including Saturday’s doubleheader) should give Baldelli’s club some momentum before heading to Baltimore on Monday. Returning home and continuing a semblance of dominance over Detroit next weekend would turn the page on lackluster early results from a season ago, and set the stage for a fresh feel in 2024.

With only six games left against the Tigers after the next week and a half, the Twins will see Detroit for just two more series the rest of the way. No matter how close Hinch’s club is to competing for the top spot, Minnesota shouldn’t be looking to give them any hope in the form of a tiebreaker in September, and establishing an identity for the season ahead can begin right now.