2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projections: Injury Impacts

[Cody Christie]

The Twins made it through most of spring training without any injury news. Earlier this week, the club announced multiple players will begin the year on the IL, impacting the Opening Day roster.

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Every team deals with injuries during the course of the 162-game season. For the Twins, the front office has focused on adding depth in recent years after the club struggled with injuries in 2022. However, the team likely didn’t want to dig into that depth before the regular season began. On Monday, the Twins announced relievers Jhoan Duran (oblique) and Caleb Thielbar (hamstring) would begin the year on the IL along with starter Anthony DeSclafani (forearm strain). Duran and Thielbar will be out most of April, and Desclafani will potentially miss the entire season. With those injuries in mind, how has the team's 26-man roster changed for Opening Day? 

Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers
Minnesota was one of two AL teams to use only two catchers last season, with Toronto being the other. Under the current regime, a two-catcher system is used regularly during the regular season. It allows both catchers to stay healthier, especially in one of baseball’s most demanding defensive positions. Vázquez is at an interesting point in his career after watching Jeffers take over the starting duties in last year’s playoffs. In his age-32 season, he posted a 65 OPS+ while still being strong defensively. Was it just a down year, or is age impacting his performance? Jeffers used Vázquez’s signing as motivation to improve his swing and work on his throwing mechanics, allowing him to finish among the AL’s top offensive catchers with a 134 OPS+. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up when the club needs a third catcher.

Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana
Injuries impacted this group in multiple ways last season, but the group is relatively healthy with Opening Day approaching. Correa played through a plantar fasciitis injury, making his performance suffer on both sides of the ball. Farmer took a brutal pitch to the face early in the season, which required jaw surgery. Kirilloff played through a shoulder injury before needing offseason surgery. Lewis missed time at the season’s start as he rehabbed from his second major knee surgery. Santana is the lone new face in this group and is expected to get most of the reps at first base. The team plans to use Kirilloff more regularly as a DH since Santana is a better first-base defender. Minnesota also has depth at Triple-A, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin available to fill multiple infield roles when injuries impact the roster.

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Manuel Margot
Buxton’s health has been one of the biggest storylines this spring because of the optimism surrounding his return to center field. Unfortunately, he was scratched from a lineup earlier this week with back soreness. It was likely a precautionary measure, and there are multiple ways to view his upcoming season as a success. Wallner and Margot have struggled this spring, with both players hitting under .100, so seeing how the team uses them in the season’s early games will be interesting. Kepler is looking to build off a tremendous second half that saw him emerge as one of the team’s best offensive weapons. Castro can play all over the field and has been hitting the ball well this spring. Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin will begin the year at Triple-A and figure to fit into the outfield mix at some point during the upcoming campaign.  

Rotation (5): Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland 
Varland is stepping into the role vacated by DeSclafani, which might be an upgrade throughout the season. The Twins don’t need a fifth starter for the first couple weeks of the season, but it seems likely for the club to use five starters especially with Paddack in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like the Twins will limit his innings by skipping or pushing back starts. This spring, Ober has shown an improved pitch mix and velocity, making him a potential playoff-caliber starter. Ryan attempted to pitch through a groin injury last season, and his performance suffered. He can be a dangerous weapon if he can find more consistency. Other young options are knocking on the door to the big leagues, including Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick.

Bullpen (8): Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumount, Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk
Duran’s injury opens a significant hole in the ninth inning for the Twins. Fans can expect Stewart and Jax to get the majority of the save opportunities while Duran is on the shelf. Thielbar’s injury opens a spot for another lefty so Funderburk can get the last bullpen spot. Alcalá gets the roster spot vacated by Duran, and he’s earned a look after a strong spring. Topa, Jackson, Staumont, and Okert were acquired this winter and have moved up the bullpen hierarchy with this week’s injury news. Cole Sands, Zach Weiss, and Daniel Duarte provide depth in St. Paul if any veteran additions are ineffective or injured. 

How will the Twins handle the injuries that have arisen this spring? How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Whitey333]

Very nice well written article.  I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic regarding this Twins team and season.  Cutting payroll when on the precipice of a good season and progress threw a lot of cold water on the faces of fans.  Mine included.  Go Twins!

[Doctor Gast]

3 LHPs in the BP is IMO too many plus Funderburk ST was not too great so I'd like Sands as long relief. This roster is adequate to begin the season but IMO not for the postseason.

[hitterscount]

22 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Very nice well written article.  I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic regarding this Twins team and season.  Cutting payroll when on the precipice of a good season and progress threw a lot of cold water on the faces of fans.  Mine included.  Go Twins!

The front office cutting payroll when really all this team needs is one more quality starter is mind boggling. The hype heading into the season, and hopefully translating to wins the field, would have increased attendance.  

If Margot's struggles carry over to the regular season, Martin needs to be given a shot. 

[DJL44]

Quote

especially with Paddack in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like the Twins will limit his innings by skipping or pushing back starts

That is the first I've heard of this. It makes Paddack the 5th starter and Varland the #4.

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

3 LHPs in the BP is IMO too many plus Funderburk ST was not too great so I'd like Sands as long relief. This roster is adequate to begin the season but IMO not for the postseason.

There's only two LHP in the bullpen with this projection: Okert and Funderburk. The rest are all RHP.

Team looks pretty good to me: while the injury to Duran is a real bummer (he's just not replaceable, even if we still have some good depth in the bullpen) and I was hoping we wouldn't have to dip into our starting pitching depth before opening day, otherwise things are looking pretty solid. The lineup is healthy to kick off the year and there's a lot of depth there too. Most of the "worries" are guys that have struggling in spring training and you never know if those numbers are meaningful at all, so I'm not going to be too concerned until someone has a rotten April.

My biggest concerns right now are: how will our relievers hold up throwing more than 1 inning at times, will the team over-use Santana because of his good glove even if he's not hitting RHP worth a damn, how will Paddack look back as a starter, and can Buxton, Lewis, Correa stay healthy. None of these are disaster-level (at least not now) so I feel pretty good about this team's chances to win the division.

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

3 LHPs in the BP is IMO too many plus Funderburk ST was not too great so I'd like Sands as long relief. This roster is adequate to begin the season but IMO not for the postseason.

Okert & Funderburk are the only lefties.

Thielbar may be back in the mix to be considered in 5-6 weeks.

Duran is essential for good fortune in the Playoffs. Otherwise, I think the roster here works into the playoffs…..,,utilizing Pen guys and either Larnach or Martin as needed through August. Then they’ll look at a couple more guys in September.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Biggest downer is Duran's injury and biggest fear is Buxton's health. The guy can break a rib sneezing. Otherwise I like our chances with this roster. Can't wait to get the Show going!

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There's only two LHP in the bullpen with this projection: Okert and Funderburk. The rest are all RHP.

Team looks pretty good to me: while the injury to Duran is a real bummer (he's just not replaceable, even if we still have some good depth in the bullpen) and I was hoping we wouldn't have to dip into our starting pitching depth before opening day, otherwise things are looking pretty solid. The lineup is healthy to kick off the year and there's a lot of depth there too. Most of the "worries" are guys that have struggling in spring training and you never know if those numbers are meaningful at all, so I'm not going to be too concerned until someone has a rotten April.

My biggest concerns right now are: how will our relievers hold up throwing more than 1 inning at times, will the team over-use Santana because of his good glove even if he's not hitting RHP worth a damn, how will Paddack look back as a starter, and can Buxton, Lewis, Correa stay healthy. None of these are disaster-level (at least not now) so I feel pretty good about this team's chances to win the division.

I think the concerns about Santana are not very serious, in that Kirilloff will start 80 games plus at 1B v. RH pitching. I do think Santana will not miss a start v. LH pitching and he’ll pinch hit often v. LH pitching and would probably center the game at 1B for later inning defense…..,,,he doesn’t hit RH pitching very well but he doesn’t K a lot and has a bunch of experience. I think he’ll be a .650 OPS guy from left side - not good, but OK in short bursts for defense from the 6th on if he pinch hits.

I see him as a plus defender that was brought in as insurance, like Taylor was last year. They’ll use him if needed but Kirilloff will still have opportunities at 1B.

[Karbo]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think the concerns about Santana are not very serious, in that Kirilloff will start 80 games plus at 1B v. RH pitching. I do think Santana will not miss a start v. LH pitching and he’ll pinch hit often v. LH pitching and would probably center the game at 1B for later inning defense…..,,,he doesn’t hit RH pitching very well but he doesn’t K a lot and has a bunch of experience. I think he’ll be a .650 OPS guy from left side - not good, but OK in short bursts for defense from the 6th on if he pinch hits.

I see him as a plus defender that was brought in as insurance, like Taylor was last year. They’ll use him if needed but Kirilloff will still have opportunities at 1B.

At this point, Santana is the starter at 1st, AK is the DH. How long it stays that way will depend on Santana IMO. If he can at least be near avg. he will get 75-80% of the starts at 1st.

[gman]

I think it's a strong roster to start the year with.  We know there are replacements that will be available this year if and when necessary. May will add a couple more pitcher to the pen if all goes well.

[Fat Calvin]

I'm still hoping for an  end of the rotation veteran starting pitcher to be added before we break camp.  I'd like to see Varland start the year in AAA.  Then we can call him up when one of our 5 horses breaks a leg.

[stringer bell]

22 minutes ago, Karbo said:

At this point, Santana is the starter at 1st, AK is the DH. How long it stays that way will depend on Santana IMO. If he can at least be near avg. he will get 75-80% of the starts at 1st.

When one of the starters is rested by being the DH, Kirilloff should be at first ( against RH pitching). I think that will happen a fair amount so that Castro can be inserted (at third, second or left field). AK should be starting at first about 50% of the time vs. RH pitching and maybe a half dozen starts in the OF. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

3 LHPs in the BP is IMO too many plus Funderburk ST was not too great so I'd like Sands as long relief. This roster is adequate to begin the season but IMO not for the postseason.

Why is Sands our only option for long relief? Seems like most of our pen could be stretched out to be the long guy. Sands sucks. Pick someone else. 

[Fatbat]

35 minutes ago, Karbo said:

At this point, Santana is the starter at 1st, AK is the DH. How long it stays that way will depend on Santana IMO. If he can at least be near avg. he will get 75-80% of the starts at 1st.

It will change as soon as Santana bats .191 for a month. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

That is the first I've heard of this. It makes Paddack the 5th starter and Varland the #4.

Yeah, I'm not super enthusiastic about skip-starts to limit innings. It feels like many starting pitchers benefit enormously from routine and when clubs start messing with that rest/recovery routine, you see injuries and ineffectiveness crop up. I don't have stats to back that up, it's just a sense I've gotten over the years.

It's not like Paddack is a 21yr old prospect. He's a 28 year old veteran who pitched last year and had a normal offseason. His surgery is 2 years ago. Either his arm will hold or it won't. At least that's my opinion.

[Parfigliano]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It will change as soon as Santana bats .191 for a month. 

History screams it will take more then a month of Santana's bat flat lining before the front office pulls his plug.

[Doctor Gast]

10 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

History screams it will take more then a month of Santana's bat flat lining before the front office pulls his plug.

Unfortunately

[Karbo]

34 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

When one of the starters is rested by being the DH, Kirilloff should be at first ( against RH pitching). I think that will happen a fair amount so that Castro can be inserted (at third, second or left field). AK should be starting at first about 50% of the time vs. RH pitching and maybe a half dozen starts in the OF. 

I would love to see AK get more reps in the field as I believe he's too young to start a DH career. However, going off several things said by management Santana is pegged as the starter at 1st. I'm not sure about OF starts though he should get time out there too IMO.

[TwinsDr2021]

I really like the 26 man, and Duran, Theilbar coming back is a plus, I am super worried about the depth almost everywhere. Lets stay healthy and win 95 games.

[Guest]

Well done.  Let's see if the young pitching can make the most of this opportunity.  Pete Maki will have his hands full.

[DocBauer]

I think the only real question is keeping Sands vs Staumont. I don't know that the Twins have to have that long man, but Rocco likes it when they do. It was pretty much a wasted roster spot last season, but last year was last year and who knows if that role will be needed or used more this season. Staumont, from what I've heard, seems to have full velocity back post surgery. But the results haven't been there according to the box scores. Unfortunately, I haven't had an opportunity to watch him so far this spring, so that's all I have to judge him on. Maybe he's thrown the ball well, been working on some things as pitchers do, and maybe he had some bad luck here and there.

But that's the one spot that I think is in flux still.

[Danchat]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I think the only real question is keeping Sands vs Staumont. I don't know that the Twins have to have that long man, but Rocco likes it when they do. It was pretty much a wasted roster spot last season, but last year was last year and who knows if that role will be needed or used more this season. Staumont, from what I've heard, seems to have full velocity back post surgery. But the results haven't been there according to the box scores. Unfortunately, I haven't had an opportunity to watch him so far this spring, so that's all I have to judge him on. Maybe he's thrown the ball well, been working on some things as pitchers do, and maybe he had some bad luck here and there.

But that's the one spot that I think is in flux still.

I think that "long reliever" role will be used more this season given our starting pitchers (and how we are one injury away from SWR starting games), so my guess is Sands will be up on the roster more often than not. But he may start the season in AAA, but he will be part of the caravan going between the majors and minors.

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I really like the 26 man, and Duran, Theilbar coming back is a plus, I am super worried about the depth almost everywhere. Lets stay healthy and win 95 games.

I would argue that our depth is superior to most teams, it's just that we also have more key players with injury history issues than most as well.

I love our infield depth. It's really impressive. we're in better shape than most teams at catcher with 2 options that would start for many teams (in part because people will assume Vazquez will rebound) and a prospect that looks ready for backup innings in AAA. We've got backups in place that can hold the fort immediately, and good PR/PH options.

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

3 LHPs in the BP is IMO too many plus Funderburk ST was not too great so I'd like Sands as long relief. This roster is adequate to begin the season but IMO not for the postseason.

I am the opposite. Sands has shown me nothing this spring for the last two years. So I am quite satisfied with the bullpen as they writer points it out

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Danchat said:

I think that "long reliever" role will be used more this season given our starting pitchers (and how we are one injury away from SWR starting games), so my guess is Sands will be up on the roster more often than not. But he may start the season in AAA, but he will be part of the caravan going between the majors and minors.

I'm not sure where your optimism for Sands comes from. I would see Simeon woods Richardson getting a shot at this roll

[bigdave]

Excellent article. I'm not a fan of the pitching staff. The starting rotation is paper thin and we'll likely need 8-10 different starters throughout the season. Not a huge fan of the bullpen either. There are very few arms there that have proven anything. I think 81 wins with this group would be a success.

[Otaknam]

Festa is potentially a solid mid rotation guy, but I’m not enthused about SWR and Headrick. Neither has shown any consistency so far, but maybe the off season focus on adding or improving pitches will add another dimension to their repertoire. 

[miracleb]

I think they need to find a way for Duarte to make the opening day roster.  He has had a better spring than many on the list and it seems like something started to "click" for him after the 2022 season!

[Fatbat]

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I really like the 26 man, and Duran, Theilbar coming back is a plus, I am super worried about the depth almost everywhere. Lets stay healthy and win 95 games.

We can cover 2 injuries in the field with Martin or Lee. Late season we may even see Camargo or Erod get the call. Injuries to any of the pitching staff is a worry. Always is a worry.