Twins should not go after a Starter

[Trov]

It is expected DeSclafani will miss possibly the whole season.  This has many saying lets go out and sign another guy.  I disagree.  We have several guys in the minors that will be able to fill in.  First, Varland should be a guy that can step in.  We have SWR, who was touted until his bad first half last year, but had a great second half.  We have Festa and Raya that could make starts this year for the team.  We have the depth, and many are ready to pitch now.  I know others will get injured, but going out to sign an aging guy to give the ball to each 5th day just makes little sense. We can go out and sign some to minor league deal, to see if they have anything left and call them up if needed, but I would not take up a roster spot on a 5th starter right now. It is not about the payroll, it is about the fact we have server guys that would be blocked from such a move. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is expected DeSclafani will miss possibly the whole season.  This has many saying lets go out and sign another guy.  I disagree.  We have several guys in the minors that will be able to fill in.  First, Varland should be a guy that can step in.  We have SWR, who was touted until his bad first half last year, but had a great second half.  We have Festa and Raya that could make starts this year for the team.  We have the depth, and many are ready to pitch now.  I know others will get injured, but going out to sign an aging guy to give the ball to each 5th day just makes little sense. We can go out and sign some to minor league deal, to see if they have anything left and call them up if needed, but I would not take up a roster spot on a 5th starter right now. It is not about the payroll, it is about the fact we have server guys that would be blocked from such a move. 

I do expect a trade for a playoff level starter at some point between now and the August deadline. But I agree, for now, I think they have the depth to make it work. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

42 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is expected DeSclafani will miss possibly the whole season.  This has many saying lets go out and sign another guy.  I disagree.  We have several guys in the minors that will be able to fill in.  First, Varland should be a guy that can step in.  We have SWR, who was touted until his bad first half last year, but had a great second half.  We have Festa and Raya that could make starts this year for the team.  We have the depth, and many are ready to pitch now.  I know others will get injured, but going out to sign an aging guy to give the ball to each 5th day just makes little sense. We can go out and sign some to minor league deal, to see if they have anything left and call them up if needed, but I would not take up a roster spot on a 5th starter right now. It is not about the payroll, it is about the fact we have server guys that would be blocked from such a move. 

I agree. We should try our own young guys for a couple of months. If it looks like a playoff run is coming and the trade deadline is approaching, pull the trigger on a trade for a proven starter then. We can't have Mahle luck again, can we?

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the Twins have overreacted by obtaining new vets. Varland is better than DeSclavani, Martin is better than Margot for example. By obtaining these new vets will limited our own players MLB experience & evaluation. So I'm against getting any new SP now although I'm not against signing a SP like Rich Hill on a special minor league contract yet giving our own SPs priority. 

I'd rather have traded for a front-line SP this offseason rather than the deadline because their more expensive & you know less what you're getting.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO the Twins have overreacted by obtaining new vets. Varland is better than DeSclavani, Martin is better than Margot for example. By obtaining these new vets will limited our own players MLB experience & evaluation. So I'm against getting any new SP now although I'm not against signing a SP like Rich Hill on a special minor league contract yet giving our own SPs priority. 

I'd rather have traded for a front-line SP this offseason rather than the deadline because their more expensive & you know less what you're getting.

Is Martin a better center fielder and option against left handed pitching than Margot? I don’t know that I can say that. I’m incredibly high on Martin and his future still, but Margot has skills too

[DocBauer]

What they MIGHT do is sign someone like Syndergard or Cueto on a milb deal with a $2M type of MLB contract IF they prove they have something left and are promoted. Again, I think it's a MIGHT situation.

What worries me is the initial depth if someone goes down early. Right now, I'd guess SWR is the next man up if that happens. His velocity is back up and he didn't look too bad in his limited time with the Twins this spring. Headrick is probably next. But I don't feel comfortable with Festa until he gets some additional AAA experience. If Raya gets any time with the Twins, it wouldn't be until late in the year as he's got to stretch out more and hasn't even seen AAA yet.

We might even get a surprise later on from someone like Canterino or Ohl, but again, that would be later in the year.

I don't want anyone to get injured, of course, but I have to wonder about old friend Dobnak if he's finally 100% and can recapture his previous form. He's mature, has ML experience, and when healthy he was a decent #5 option a few years ago. 

I want to see the prospects all do great and develop and establish themselves. I'm just a little worried if some of them have to come up the first half of the season. 

[JD-TWINS]

Dobnack & Raya & Canterino & Ohl are ALL really long shots. Pretty sure canterino is currently hurt?

The top 5 guys should be fine until June from a workload standpoint.

Festa & SWR should be ready to start helping, one at a time, by June 1.

Might want to give Dallas a call for continuity on an MiLB deal for $2M…….maybe some incentives if he meets some minimal criteria. I get he’s not a big “stuff guy” but he’s smart and a very different look for most opponents. He may be worth 8-10 starts mid-summer into September. Not really sure what HE thinks about how he was treated last year? Surprised I’ve heard absolutely nothing about his activities this spring.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do expect a trade for a playoff level starter at some point between now and the August deadline. But I agree, for now, I think they have the depth to make it work. 

I think that sounds nice - they certainly have pieces to trade from ST. PAUl …….just don’t think it’s that easy to go get a pitcher at the Deadline. Don’t expect a deal to be made with the competition there will be from other clubs in the mix at that point. We just differ on this one.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

I think that sounds nice - they certainly have pieces to trade from ST. PAUl …….just don’t think it’s that easy to go get a pitcher at the Deadline. Don’t expect a deal to be made with the competition there will be from other clubs in the mix at that point. We just differ on this one.

They have been as aggressive in adding, this front office, as any team during their tenure, especially the last 3 years or so

[Woof Bronzer]

34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They have been as aggressive in adding, this front office, as any team during their tenure, especially the last 3 years or so

They literally did nothing last year?

[FlyingFinn]

38 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

They literally did nothing last year?

And won! With some of the best starting pitching we've ever had.

[laloesch]

15 hours ago, Trov said:

It is expected DeSclafani will miss possibly the whole season.  This has many saying lets go out and sign another guy.  I disagree.  We have several guys in the minors that will be able to fill in.  First, Varland should be a guy that can step in.  We have SWR, who was touted until his bad first half last year, but had a great second half.  We have Festa and Raya that could make starts this year for the team.  We have the depth, and many are ready to pitch now.  I know others will get injured, but going out to sign an aging guy to give the ball to each 5th day just makes little sense. We can go out and sign some to minor league deal, to see if they have anything left and call them up if needed, but I would not take up a roster spot on a 5th starter right now. It is not about the payroll, it is about the fact we have server guys that would be blocked from such a move. 

They have options.  I just want to roll with Varland, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Lopez.  Undoubtedly, they will need a backup to fill in with inevitable injuries, but we'll see.  Festa is a lot closer than Raya.

I still don't understand the fascination with SWR.  I never agreed with Aaron Gleeman's assessment of him after the Berrios trade.  The guy's minor league numbers are mediocre above AA and there's little evidence to date that he will be anything more than a AAAA starter, but hey I could be wrong (I hope I'm wrong). 

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Dobnack & Raya & Canterino & Ohl are ALL really long shots. Pretty sure canterino is currently hurt?

The top 5 guys should be fine until June from a workload standpoint.

Festa & SWR should be ready to start helping, one at a time, by June 1.

Might want to give Dallas a call for continuity on an MiLB deal for $2M…….maybe some incentives if he meets some minimal criteria. I get he’s not a big “stuff guy” but he’s smart and a very different look for most opponents. He may be worth 8-10 starts mid-summer into September. Not really sure what HE thinks about how he was treated last year? Surprised I’ve heard absolutely nothing about his activities this spring.

I don't want SWR anywhere near the starting rotation of the Twins, not unless he has a breakout year in AAA.  He barely averages 90mph and he has not lived up to the hype when he was drafted out of high school.

Festa is by far the superior prospect but he only has 12 innings at the AAA level.  After that it's Raya and Canterino.  Canterino could be on a fast track to the majors if he can stay healthy as he's already 26 years old.  When healthy he's been dominant in the minor leagues, but he needs to do it in AAA before long or he's simply gonna age out, which would be a shame given what he's done in the minors.    

[Rosterman]

Man, if I knew you could take a one-year $32m flyer on Snell, I might've gone for it. Even if you had to absorb the second year.

[LloydInMN]

Why is it that whenever I look at the Twins pitching roster I'm reminded of one of those "Buy Here-Pay Here" Used Car Dealers? I wouldn't leave the lot with any of the clunks that are for sale but the Twins drive away hoping they've discovered lightning in a bottle. Perhaps the problem is a shortage of decent arms beginning on draft day? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

I don't want SWR anywhere near the starting rotation of the Twins, not unless he has a breakout year in AAA.  He barely averages 90mph and he has not lived up to the hype when he was drafted out of high school.

Festa is by far the superior prospect but he only has 12 innings at the AAA level.  After that it's Raya and Canterino.  Canterino could be on a fast track to the majors if he can stay healthy as he's already 26 years old.  When healthy he's been dominant in the minor leagues, but he needs to do it in AAA before long or he's simply gonna age out, which would be a shame given what he's done in the minors.    

SWR is regularly hitting 93 and 94 this spring. 
I’m excited to see how he looks when games start.

Canterino is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.

[LastOnePicked]

On 3/19/2024 at 3:46 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do expect a trade for a playoff level starter at some point between now and the August deadline.

Please no. This is costly in terms of the future, and this FO does not have the knack for being a successful buyer in deadline trades. Build depth now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

23 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Please no. This is costly in terms of the future, and this FO does not have the knack for being a successful buyer in deadline trades. Build depth now.

They have decent depth. They have to add if they want to make an actual playoff push. This is their window. They can certainly add between now and August 1, and they will continue to build depth no? 

What is the harm in continuing to try?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Every day/week that passes, Montgomery gets cheaper.  Maybe we can snatch him on a similar or even cheaper deal than what the Giants did with Snell. That would save us immense prospect capital that will be required at the deadline. We can always dream and hope can't we?

Too late for me. The Twins have signed lots of guys who held out for bigger deals only to sign after spring training was about over or the season was underway. Lance Lynn, Chris Archer, Logan Morrison and Kendrys Morales. Somewhere between gut-punch and full blown catastrophe. 

I don't care how you do in spring training, but you need to get the reps in. Too late for Montgomery. 

[Cris E]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Too late for me. The Twins have signed lots of guys who held out for bigger deals only to sign after spring training was about over or the season was underway. Lance Lynn, Chris Archer, Logan Morrison and Kendrys Morales. Somewhere between gut-punch and full blown catastrophe. 

I don't care how you do in spring training, but you need to get the reps in. Too late for Montgomery. 

They were utterly different animals than Montgomery. There is no one that would confuse very late-career guys like that with a guy who just posted a 138 ERA+ and is riding a string of four years not missing a start. He's available not because of his borderline value, but because he's too valuable and no one wants to pay him.

I'd take a Montgomery signing right now. Just give him a bunch of minor league innings in FL or St Paul until he's strong and then let him fine tune in the majors. We have an easy division again this year so if he could right himself by June there'd be plenty of time to crawl out of any hole his early starts might put us in. Alas, I would not expect the money thing to work out so this is just killing time until Opening Day.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Cris E said:

They were utterly different animals than Montgomery. There is no one that would confuse very late-career guys like that with a guy who just posted a 138 ERA+ and is riding a string of four years not missing a start. He's available not because of his borderline value, but because he's too valuable and no one wants to pay him.

I'd take a Montgomery signing right now. Just give him a bunch of minor league innings in FL or St Paul until he's strong and then let him fine tune in the majors. We have an easy division again this year so if he could right himself by June there'd be plenty of time to crawl out of any hole his early starts might put us in. Alas, I would not expect the money thing to work out so this is just killing time until Opening Day.

That's true for Archer, Morrison, and Morales, but Lynn was 31 when the Twins signed him coming off a 33 start, 186 inning season with a 3.43 ERA in his age 30 season. That's almost identical to Montgomery last year (32 starts, 188 innings, 3.20 ERA in age 30 season. Both even started their age 30 seasons in St Louis!).

I'd sign Montgomery in a heartbeat. He was my "realistic" target when the offseason started before we knew about the significant payroll decrease. Lynn's problem was that he was so cranky over not getting paid that he let it effect his start to the season (if we believe the reports). Not sure how Montgomery would/will handle things (or Snell with the Giants for that matter).

[nicksaviking]

52 minutes ago, Cris E said:

They were utterly different animals than Montgomery. There is no one that would confuse very late-career guys like that with a guy who just posted a 138 ERA+ and is riding a string of four years not missing a start. He's available not because of his borderline value, but because he's too valuable and no one wants to pay him.

I'd take a Montgomery signing right now. Just give him a bunch of minor league innings in FL or St Paul until he's strong and then let him fine tune in the majors. We have an easy division again this year so if he could right himself by June there'd be plenty of time to crawl out of any hole his early starts might put us in. Alas, I would not expect the money thing to work out so this is just killing time until Opening Day.

I don't know, 2018 Lance Lynn looks an awful lot like 2024 Jordan Montgomery. Same age and almost identical track records. I think it would be hard to find a better comp for Montgomery actually.

[Woof Bronzer]

19 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What is the harm in continuing to try?

I'd say the harm is the Twins draining their farm system of the talent it would take to swing a deadline deal for a frontline starter.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I'd say the harm is the Twins draining their farm system of the talent it would take to swing a deadline deal for a frontline starter.

They have a LOT of depth right now. NOT trying would be a slap in the face to the current major league roster no?

[Woof Bronzer]

53 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They have a LOT of depth right now. NOT trying would be a slap in the face to the current major league roster no?

By this logic the major league roster definitely got slapped in the face last year en route to the playoffs, while the Lopez and Mahle trades in 2022 were "trying" and resulted in the team staying home in October.    If I have to vote I'm voting for face slaps, sorry.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

31 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

By this logic the major league roster definitely got slapped in the face last year en route to the playoffs, while the Lopez and Mahle trades in 2022 were "trying" and resulted in the team staying home in October.    If I have to vote I'm voting for face slaps, sorry.   

I'm not saying they have to add every single time it comes up. But I am saying they have depth right now (and will add more depth with the draft in June/July.) They have a lot of depth, and I believe enough they can trade to add to the team prior to the playoff push this season. I think it would be negligent to not add.

I also think they can add without trading Lee or Jenkins. Are you saying you wouldn't trade from our prospect depth to help the team ever? That's what I would argue was the biggest downfall for the Terry Ryan led teams.

[RpR]

Here is a rookie they should try to snag some how.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-prospect-ettore-giulianelli-throws-filthy-screwball?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Here is a rookie they should try to snag some how.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-prospect-ettore-giulianelli-throws-filthy-screwball?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

That is some nasty stuff. But there's no way that his arm will hold up to the stress

[tony&rodney]

Old thread that reminds us of how people thought the Twins would sign a free agent. Oh well. Falvey had an opportunity to make a big trade but had too much love for his guys. The Twins have the starters they need and just need to figure out how to be better in the field and more efficient with the offense.

[SwainZag]

On 5/28/2024 at 9:42 PM, tony&rodney said:

Old thread that reminds us of how people thought the Twins would sign a free agent. Oh well. Falvey had an opportunity to make a big trade but had too much love for his guys. The Twins have the starters they need and just need to figure out how to be better in the field and more efficient with the offense.

Just curious who were the trade candidates?  How many upside starters were traded this past offseason?