Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

Much of the Minnesota Twins' outlook in 2024 feels like it boils down to this position. A healthy Byron Buxton is the definition of a game-changer, but the Twins lost a proven veteran safety net behind him during the offseason and could be scrambling if he goes down again.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, contingency planning in center field has been a constant consideration for the Twins front office over the past decade. In 2023, their backup plan worked out beautifully, as Michael A. Taylor was able to step in and deliver with the oft-injured starter once again unavailable.

This year the Twins are going in a different direction in the backup role, while hoping the starter can at long last buck a long-running negative trend. Perhaps no position on the roster exposes us all to a wider range of outcomes.

TWINS CENTER FIELDERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Byron Buxton
Backup: Manuel Margot
Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodríguez, Brandon Winokur

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 24th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 7th out of 30

THE GOOD
Buxton showed up to camp talking a big game about how much better he was feeling, and so far he's been backing it up. In stark contrast to last year, the 30-year-old was able to hit the ground running this spring. He's moving around comfortably and participating in all activities with no issue. He's already made several starts in center, after making zero defensive appearances last spring or summer. Early returns on his latest knee surgery are very promising.

That's huge news. As Bobby Nightengale wrote recently for the Star Tribune, "Twins players and coaches believe a healthy season from Buxton is more impactful than any trade or free agent acquisition," and that belief is warranted. Over the past five years, when playing center field, Buxton has been one of the biggest difference-makers in the major leagues (on a per-game basis). His slugging percentage is 11th-highest among all hitters since 2019; he has the best stolen-base percentage in MLB history; and he's a Platinum Glove winner in center. 

It says a lot about Buxton's sheer talent and physical prowess that last year, even while essentially playing on one leg, he still registered 94th-percentile sprint speed and was in the 91st percentile for baserunning value. He also continued to post impressive batted-ball metrics when making contact and managed a career-high walk rate, as he struggled to consistently find his swing.

Buxton is on track to start in center field on Opening Day, which would be a beautiful sight to see. From there, it's going to be touch-and-go all season, as we know, but for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins, a reasonable (albeit optimistic) hope might be to get 100 or so starts from Buxton in the outfield and have him available for the playoffs. It's the type of outcome that would dramatically improve Minnesota's viability as a World Series contender. It's also a major long shot.

THE BAD
Buxton has played 100 games in a single season just once, in a career spanning nine seasons. He's coming off his most depressing campaign yet, ruined by a knee injury that became a chronic problem. For all the good vibes right now, we have to be realistic, and so do the Twins.

That's why they prioritized adding a credible backup option to replace Taylor, even if they waited until spring training was underway to finally pull the trigger. Acquiring Margot gives the Twins a veteran player with 450 career starts in center field, putting a crucial layer of depth between Buxton and the likes of Castro, Martin or Keirsey. 

If he's starting once or twice a week in center, and plugging into the corner spots against lefties, Margot should be a fine roster piece. If Buxton goes down again, and Margot is needed as basically an everyday player in center – as Taylor was last year – he'll be stretched. Margot was barely above replacement level for the Rays in 2023, rendering him a salary dump toss-in when Tampa sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. He was 9% worse than average at the plate, same as for his career, and while great in the corners, he's a lesser defender than Buxton or Taylor.

After Margot, the depth chart gets even shakier, with the Nick Gordon trade removing another theoretical option from the mix. Castro is next in line, but very stretched in center. Martin offers an intriguing skill set at the position with his speed and aggressiveness, but we'll see how ready he is. If Buxton doesn't, Martin would be my dark horse candidate to lead the team in center-field starts. 

THE BOTTOM LINE
A somewhat healthy Byron Buxton is the difference between the Twins being a top-tier or bottom-tier team in the league in center field. It really is that simple, and the FanGraphs forecast illustrates it well enough. Last year, with Buck sidelined, the Twins ranked 24th among 30 teams in fWAR at the position, even with Taylor playing great defense and hitting 21 bombs. This year, they're projected to be seventh, and that's with Buxton making 350 plate appearances. 

That seemingly modest target is one he's reached just twice in his career, leaving us all to dream on what could be if Buxton finally shakes off the injury woes and stays on the field. At least for now, there's legitimate reason to hope and believe.

Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field

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[Eris]

One of the challenges with managing a roster with Byron Buxton. You get greatest CF in baseball —who is truly a game changing talent. On the other hand you are holding breath every play hoping he can play more than half the season. Therefore a need to build a roster with 2 very capable CF (both O and D). Someone who mostly fill that role wants to be paid like a starter (see M Taylor) I think both Castro and Martin can fill that role. I have so far been unimpressed with Margot. 

[Whitey333]

So sick of the over hype for a generally unproven player.  Yet he was able to finagle a 100 million dollar contract for playing part time.  Great work on his part.  Every spring it's the same old tiring story about Buxton.  8 years of people saying he's the best player in the game, a generational find etal 7 of those 8 years we have been left just wondering if he is really worth all the hype.  Yes he shows glimpses of brilliance.  Then many times he looks like Miguel Sano totally lost. It's long past time for him to put up or shut up.

[TwinsDr2021]

37 minutes ago, Eris said:

 Someone who mostly fill that role wants to be paid like a starter (see M Taylor) I think both Castro and Martin can fill that role. I have so far been unimpressed with Margot. 

So somebody that has been in the majors since he was 21 and a better hitter than Young while being 3 plus years younger than him, is unimpressive (actually I don't disagree with that) but a utility player that has played a total of 61 games in CF in 5 years in the majors and a 25 year old minor league player can fill the role?  That confuses me.

If Buxton can play 100 plus games they will be fine, if not they better hope all the other players are doing well, because CF could quickly become a black hole in the lineup.

[Karbo]

Well, here we go again. Will Buxton be healthy and play enough to be considered one of the top 10 players in the majors, or will he be a highly paid player sitting on the IL? I get excited to see him in CF again, but that little voice in the back of my head keeps saying just wait for the other shoe to drop.

[Fatbat]

The is possibly the deepest position in the whole organization. From the #1 most electric/injury riddled star to the #1 prospect and future game changer (& all the other capable talent in between). Trot anyone you want out there, we will be above league average. Buck is holding it down for now and will likely get 140games there if he doesn’t get hurt. 

[miracleb]

I had high hopes for DaShawn Keirsey (even over Margot.)  Is he injured......or didn't he get invited to spring training?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

One of the challenges with managing a roster with Byron Buxton. You get greatest CF in baseball —who is truly a game changing talent. On the other hand you are holding breath every play hoping he can play more than half the season. Therefore a need to build a roster with 2 very capable CF (both O and D). Someone who mostly fill that role wants to be paid like a starter (see M Taylor) I think both Castro and Martin can fill that role. I have so far been unimpressed with Margot. 

I don’t get the “4th outfielder” hype with Margot. IMO, they needed someone to be in front of Martin as the NEED guy in CF in case of injury. He’s insurance in CF - more of a regular in LF with Wallner.

To me, Margot is the platoon option with Wallner. He will start some games in CF when Baldelli anticipates wanting Castro’s flexibility off the bench for a game.

He may play some more games in OF when they rest Kepler, & Wallner moves over to right. Kirilloff may be in the mix occasionally as well in the OF.

I think Castro plays (starts most of them) 80 games in CF.

[Alex]

It's probably a bit dramatic to say the Twins will be "scrambling" if Buxton goes down.   They picked Margot as a good second option, have a third (certainly more questionable) option in Castro on the roster, and two possible minor league options that could fill in in case of multiple injuries.

It's worth noting that, in 2023, only 12 teams had CF that started 110 or more games (one of them was Taylor).  18 had CF that started 100 or more games.  16 CF played enough to be labeled as "qualified" for awards, etc...That means that unless a team is lucky or really wants to take a risk, they all need to have a capable 2nd option in CF.   

To say this has hampered the Twins or made roster construction difficult somehow just isn't accurate.  The only season they made a significant move for that contingency (Taylor) was last season, but a case could be made that it was a good move even if Buxton had been healthy.   Despite Taylor being needed, the Twins still had one of their best seasons in some time. 

It's unfortunate that Buxton has been injured as much as he has, but 5 of his seasons he's been worth more than $15M dollars (often significantly more than that) even playing incomplete seasons.  He's already been worth more than 150M in his career, so to imply he somehow swindled the Twins, fooling them into paying more than he's worth is a bit silly.  I'd take a bet that he'd get more than that 15M p/year on the FA market (though probably not as many years at least until he had another good season).   I know it sounds like a lot, but $15M just isn't a lot in MLB money these days (Joey Gallo got $11M from the Twins after a bad season).

[Alex]

47 minutes ago, miracleb said:

I had high hopes for DaShawn Keirsey (even over Margot.)  Is he injured......or didn't he get invited to spring training?

He was at spring training (non-roster invitee) but was moved down to minor league camp last week.   I think he's 5th on the depth chart right now, but consensus is that not major league ready even at 26 (maybe not sure of the bat I think as he just started hitting last year)  Remember, he was available in the Rule 5 draft but no one took him.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This truly is a scary position.  The lessons that (should) have been learned in the past few years are that when healthy, he is awesome and in the top two most valuable players on the team.  When not healthy, he is not very good.  Specifically, he was not a good everyday DH last year, part of which was certainly due to health but I also don’t think he’s wired particularly well for a role that takes him out of the action on the field.  

I think that Margot, Castro, and Martin are more than adequate backup players, so we should be reasonably insulated from a Buxton injury, which brings me to my point.  When Buxton tweaks something, put him on the injured list.  Don’t let him linger and push on.  He is a thoroughbred not a work horse and playing semi hurt will not get him back to the player he can be.  An occasional spot at DH like any other player is just fine, but having him clog up the spot, while being only semi-healthy and not hitting well has proved to be disastrous.  Let’s not repeat that part of the process again this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

I love Lewis, but no one excites me like Buck running the bases or after a fly ball. Pray he puts in the games this year. For years Cave was our CF sub, he was terrible yet no one seemed to care. This offseason we had Castro, Gordon & Martin IMO ready to sub Buck each many times better than Cave. With very little competition in the Central, I saw no need to trade for Margot. I'd like to have another look at Larnach on the MLB level before making a decision on him. Before calling up Martin.

In '22 they should have shut Buxton down right away & fixed him instead of playing him hurt, Much what they did with Polanco compromising their health. Now with Paparesta policing, I feel much better about the team's health. Coming postseason my hope is everyone is healthy.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

I had high hopes for DaShawn Keirsey (even over Margot.)  Is he injured......or didn't he get invited to spring training?

He was there and optioned over to minor league camp

[bean5302]

Center field is shallower than it was last year with Michael A. Taylor on the roster, and I think it's the shallowest position on the team. In a full season, you might expect:
Buxton 5.0-6.0 WAR
*Taylor 2.0-3.0 WAR
Margot 1.5-2.0 WAR
Castro 1.0-2.5 WAR
Martin 0.0-2.5 WAR
Rodriguez (1.0)-3.0 WAR
Keirsey (2.0)-1.0 WAR

There is no player in the organization not named Royce Lewis that could legitimately be expected to have a 2.0 WAR floor of starting caliber position player if placed in center field like Taylor did. I don't think anybody is enamored with the idea of shifting Lewis back to CF again.

Margot - has a below average bat and declining speed. The Twins know what they've got here. Barely adequate backup center fielder if Buxton goes down.

Castro - was signed to a MiLB contract last year after being non-tendered at $1.7MM by the Tigers. He had a great season with the Twins, but to be non-tendered despite a chump change projection and then signed to a MiLB contract tells you a lot about expectations for a player with a long track record.

Martin - is a question mark for sure. He might be more rangey than Margot, and he might have a better bat. Or he might be AAAA caliber. 

Rodriguez - could be fun to watch if the Twins just rolled the dice on him. Or he could be totally exposed like he was in Spring Training. Pretty clear he's not ready, but maybe he could make the adjustments after a few weeks of struggles and turn into a stud enough to flip that WAR back positive? Not a gamble I'd like to take right now, haha.

Keirsey - He's got enough speed to cover CF, but little power and a weak hit tool. I'd expect he'd be this year's Andrew Stevenson, but not quite as fast, probably. I'd view the 26 year old, non-roster player as emergency depth.

[Bodie]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

So sick of the over hype for a generally unproven player.  Yet he was able to finagle a 100 million dollar contract for playing part time.  Great work on his part.  Every spring it's the same old tiring story about Buxton.  8 years of people saying he's the best player in the game, a generational find etal 7 of those 8 years we have been left just wondering if he is really worth all the hype.  Yes he shows glimpses of brilliance.  Then many times he looks like Miguel Sano totally lost. It's long past time for him to put up or shut up.

Only one guy, off the top of my head has played regularly for the Twins, and "looks like Sano" in a LONG time and his name is Joey Gallo...

[Mike Sixel]

A lot of their success lies in Buxton being healthy, imo. While they have adequate backups, Buxton is a star when healthy. You don't just replace a star......I'm not worried long term, but this year? I'm not a fan of the Margo signing....

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

In '22 they should have shut Buxton down right away & fixed him instead of playing him hurt,

One of the issues with an inflamed plica is diagnosis. It is confused with patella tendonitis, which is what they thought Buxton had. Once the symptoms didn't improve, they started casting about for other problems and figured it out. By that time they were too far into the season to perform the procedure and have him return.

Thats my guess

[Jeff K]

8 hours ago, Eris said:

One of the challenges with managing a roster with Byron Buxton. You get greatest CF in baseball —who is truly a game changing talent. On the other hand you are holding breath every play hoping he can play more than half the season. Therefore a need to build a roster with 2 very capable CF (both O and D). Someone who mostly fill that role wants to be paid like a starter (see M Taylor) I think both Castro and Martin can fill that role. I have so far been unimpressed with Margot. 

I was at the Twins vs. Braves a couple of days ago and Martin started at 2nd base.  He made two beautiful plays and looked good hitting even though the Twins only got a few hits.  He is certainly athletic and looks like a solid ballplayer.  He's my choice in CF if Buxton goes down.  Here's hoping Byron a great season and no need for more than a back up CF!

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Center field is shallower than it was last year with Michael A. Taylor on the roster, and I think it's the shallowest position on the team. In a full season, you might expect:
Buxton 5.0-6.0 WAR
*Taylor 2.0-3.0 WAR
Margot 1.5-2.0 WAR
Castro 1.0-2.5 WAR
Martin 0.0-2.5 WAR
Rodriguez (1.0)-3.0 WAR
Keirsey (2.0)-1.0 WAR

There is no player in the organization not named Royce Lewis that could legitimately be expected to have a 2.0 WAR floor of starting caliber position player if placed in center field like Taylor did. I don't think anybody is enamored with the idea of shifting Lewis back to CF again.

Margot - has a below average bat and declining speed. The Twins know what they've got here. Barely adequate backup center fielder if Buxton goes down.

Castro - was signed to a MiLB contract last year after being non-tendered at $1.7MM by the Tigers. He had a great season with the Twins, but to be non-tendered despite a chump change projection and then signed to a MiLB contract tells you a lot about expectations for a player with a long track record.

Martin - is a question mark for sure. He might be more rangey than Margot, and he might have a better bat. Or he might be AAAA caliber. 

Rodriguez - could be fun to watch if the Twins just rolled the dice on him. Or he could be totally exposed like he was in Spring Training. Pretty clear he's not ready, but maybe he could make the adjustments after a few weeks of struggles and turn into a stud enough to flip that WAR back positive? Not a gamble I'd like to take right now, haha.

Keirsey - He's got enough speed to cover CF, but little power and a weak hit tool. I'd expect he'd be this year's Andrew Stevenson, but not quite as fast, probably. I'd view the 26 year old, non-roster player as emergency depth.

Walker Jenkins could step in with 3 WAR as early as June 1st.-Oct1st. 

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Walker Jenkins could step in with 3 WAR as early as June 1st.-Oct1st. 

Sure. We could watch Walker Jenkins put up a .100/.110/.100 batting line while generating -5.0 WAR. After all, he was pretty good in 56 plate appearances at Low A last year. He's ready!

[Schmoeman5]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I love Lewis, but no one excites me like Buck running the bases or after a fly ball. Pray he puts in the games this year. For years Cave was our CF sub, he was terrible yet no one seemed to care. This offseason we had Castro, Gordon & Martin IMO ready to sub Buck each many times better than Cave. With very little competition in the Central, I saw no need to trade for Margot. I'd like to have another look at Larnach on the MLB level before making a decision on him. Before calling up Martin.

In '22 they should have shut Buxton down right away & fixed him instead of playing him hurt, Much what they did with Polanco compromising their health. Now with Paparesta policing, I feel much better about the team's health. Coming postseason my hope is everyone is healthy.

Wasn't Paparesta policing last year? He should have been shut down last spring. He would be as healthy as he is now going into last years playoffs.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Sure. We could watch Walker Jenkins put up a .100/.110/.100 batting line while generating -5.0 WAR. After all, he was pretty good in 56 plate appearances at Low A last year. He's ready!

He isn’t ready but he will be. That wont matter because Buck will be in CF all year. 

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Wasn't Paparesta policing last year? He should have been shut down last spring. He would be as healthy as he is now going into last years playoffs.

He can't help what directly or indirectly happened in '22 that affected '23.

[Schmoeman5]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

He can't help what directly or indirectly happened in '22 that effected '23.

OK. But last years narrative was Buxton was rehabbing and they were bringing him along slowly to eventually get back in CF. This year they're saying Buxton was only playing on one leg last year. What happened? 

[mikelink45]

Wait and see.  Hope and hype do not mean anything.  I want him out there.  Will he play?????

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Center field is shallower than it was last year with Michael A. Taylor on the roster, and I think it's the shallowest position on the team. In a full season, you might expect:
Buxton 5.0-6.0 WAR
*Taylor 2.0-3.0 WAR
Margot 1.5-2.0 WAR
Castro 1.0-2.5 WAR
Martin 0.0-2.5 WAR
Rodriguez (1.0)-3.0 WAR
Keirsey (2.0)-1.0 WAR

There is no player in the organization not named Royce Lewis that could legitimately be expected to have a 2.0 WAR floor of starting caliber position player if placed in center field like Taylor did. I don't think anybody is enamored with the idea of shifting Lewis back to CF again.

Margot - has a below average bat and declining speed. The Twins know what they've got here. Barely adequate backup center fielder if Buxton goes down.

Castro - was signed to a MiLB contract last year after being non-tendered at $1.7MM by the Tigers. He had a great season with the Twins, but to be non-tendered despite a chump change projection and then signed to a MiLB contract tells you a lot about expectations for a player with a long track record.

Martin - is a question mark for sure. He might be more rangey than Margot, and he might have a better bat. Or he might be AAAA caliber. 

Rodriguez - could be fun to watch if the Twins just rolled the dice on him. Or he could be totally exposed like he was in Spring Training. Pretty clear he's not ready, but maybe he could make the adjustments after a few weeks of struggles and turn into a stud enough to flip that WAR back positive? Not a gamble I'd like to take right now, haha.

Keirsey - He's got enough speed to cover CF, but little power and a weak hit tool. I'd expect he'd be this year's Andrew Stevenson, but not quite as fast, probably. I'd view the 26 year old, non-roster player as emergency depth.

Castro had a 106 OPS+ ……period.

.257 BA - 32 XBH - 33 steals - 6 positions potentially……124 games. Good speed & good arm!

He’s going to turn 27 in a month.

I don’t care what he did with the Tigers any more than I care what Nikko Goodrum did with the Tigers. How did they do in ‘23?

Castro can play CF for 80 games if needed.

[wabene]

14 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

OK. But last years narrative was Buxton was rehabbing and they were bringing him along slowly to eventually get back in CF. This year they're saying Buxton was only playing on one leg last year. What happened? 

Misdiagnosis

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Misdiagnosis

I don't believe that for 1 second.  Buxton said this spring. That last spring it felt like a knife in his knee coming into 2023. That's not what the Twins were saying at all. They were the Kevin Bacon character in Animal House. Let's see. Training camp starts in February. And they misdiagnosed all the way through the season and shortly after the season ends they remove the plica. I'm not buying it.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Misdiagnosis

They seem to do that a lot. I wouldn't let them treat my pet gator. They'd tell me he's a frog. 

[wabene]

22 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I don't believe that for 1 second.  Buxton said this spring. That last spring it felt like a knife in his knee coming into 2023. That's not what the Twins were saying at all. They were the Kevin Bacon character in Animal House. Let's see. Training camp starts in February. And they misdiagnosed all the way through the season and shortly after the season ends they remove the plica. I'm not buying it.

Maybe there is no conspiracy or mishandling of the situation. They could've just struggled to correctly diagnose and treat the problem. Is this the first time someone had a condition that wasn't diagnosed properly? What would anyone have to gain from not just fixing the problem in the first place? Look for the motive. There isn't one. I don't know why that is so hard to believe. Last year they thought he would improve and kept pushing back his timeline on returning to the field. The soreness never went away. It is too bad Buxton effectively lost a year.

You never know he could be a new man from here on out and with all he has learned, stay healthy. 

"However, it is widely believed that plica syndrome goes undiagnosed in many instances since symptoms are similar to other knee problems."

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/21705-plica-syndrome