The Big Question: Minnesota Twins Left Field

[Ted Schwerzler]

At this point, it seems the Minnesota Twins Opening Day roster is all but set, and that means Matt Wallner will be the starter in left field. He had a solid rookie season, but the most crucial question is how he responds to adjustments in year two.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

It took some time for the Twins to allow Matt Wallner an actual leash at the highest level. Trevor Larnach started in left field on Opening Day, But Wallner continued to produce with a 927 OPS in 67 Triple-A games and forced his way into the starting lineup, where he posted a 139 OPS+ across 76 games. Now, he will be tasked with substantiating that production.

Wallner got his feet wet with an 18-game sample back in 2022. The immense power was impressive, and overall he was above league average in that span. As with many power hitters, the strikeouts are prevalent with Wallner, but he also does a good job at drawing walks. A book has been put together on him, though, and pitchers will have had an offseason to prepare against him.

Last year, Wallner owned a 31.5% strikeout rate, which, had he qualified, would have ranked fifth in the majors. Only Brent Rooker, Jack Suwinski, James Outman, and Ryan McMahon ended more at-bats in strikeouts. Each produced positive fWAR totals, so it is a path that can work, but Wallner must continue to draw walks and dictate at-bats. His 11% walk rate was above Rooker and McMahon of that group, but there is room to get better.

At the dish, Wallner chased just over 28% of the time, which is respectable. He also whiffed just over 15% of the time, below the 16.7% mark he put up during the 2022 cameo. Unlike Larnach before him, Wallner will see a heavy diet of heat. Whereas the Oregon State product feasted on fastballs and struggled with offspeed, Wallner’s diet has been fastballs up and away. With a nearly 50% pull rate last season, pitchers don’t want to give the slugger a chance to deposit a ball into the overhang at Target Field.

Exit velocity and hard hit rate are the name of the game for Minnesota’s left fielder, and he loses some of that prowess when flipping the ball to the opposite field. Of his 14 home runs last season, only three went left of center, and only one was truly to left field. His 18.8% barrel rate and nearly 50% hard-hit rate play best when he can drive the ball on the right side. As pitchers force him to be patient and go the other way or jam him in, it will take adjustments to survive.

Defensively, Wallner will also need to work on keeping himself in the lineup. He has a huge arm, but most teams ceased testing it after the Southern Miss product recorded a few early outfield assists. He was worth -2 DRS and -2 OAA in just over 300 innings in left field last season, and while that’s not a significant sample at all, he can’t succumb to needing daily defensive replacements.

What Baldelli does for contingency plans remains to be seen. Emmanuel Rodriguez isn’t going to be a consideration early on this year, and Austin Martin is a better fit in center field. Manuel Margot could definitely get run behind Wallner, and he may even be an ideal platoon partner there. Then there’s Larnach, who will likely be ticketed for Triple-A St. Paul to begin the year. He has been given sporadic chances but has never done enough to stay healthy and stick. A strong start at Triple-A could bring the former first-round pick back to the big leagues, but Minnesota likely will give Larnach and Wallner time to settle in at their respective destinations.

Wallner's success in his sophomore campaign could propel the Twins to new heights. He went through periods of being a lineup leader last season and then experienced a hitless streak where everything seemed to go wrong. If he can remain somewhere in the middle all year long, everyone involved can benefit from a corner fielder who can man the position for a few years.

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[Parfigliano]

Wallner has the raw power to drive the ball to LF.  Since out of the gate he is being given LF as his everyday position Im confident he will prove that.

[strumdatjag]

Looks like AK may become an option out there. 

[Mike Sixel]

What's the question?

[DocBauer]

I actually have a ton of faith in Wallner going forward, though I expect some speed bumps along the way.

Here's what I know and believe:

1] He's a much better athlete than some believe. He's actually pretty fast, even though it might take a step or two to get going.

2] Despite any defensive metric thrown out, I watched him play a ton in LF and he looked much better to me than he did in 2022. His arm is a defensive weapon. His best position is probably RF in the future where he has to cover less ground. At least in Target Field, where he would play 50% of the time. It's not about ability with him, it's about getting better with eye tracking ability. That comes with work and experience. 

3] MLB is obviously different than milb, but EVERY SINGLE YEAR of his milb career he adapted and improved. Even in a relatively SSS he's done that so far. I wish I could remember the game better, but there was a game late in the season where he was sitting 1-2 or 0-2 and the pitch was slightly outside and slower...can't remember change or breaking ball...but you could SEE him hesitate for a moment and put the barrel on the ball and drive it for a HR. That showed me right there that he's got a decent eye and the ability to adjust.

Again, I expect some speed bumps in 2024. 

I posted elsewhere that Wallner reminds me of a good, younger Gallo. The young Gallo, like Wallner, had tremendous power. And he could work the count for BB and a good OB% to go along with that power. But the younger Gallo could actually still HIT. Somewhere along the line, Gallo stopped being able to do so.

I'm not saying Wallner is Gallo Jr. I hope he's better. And he might be. Let's hope so. What I'm saying is the K's are going to come. But the power and BB should also be there as well. And like he's done at every level so far, it's up to him to make the adjustments. But in 319 PA and 270 AB and a quad slash line of .244/ .361/ .482/ .842 it's not hard to get excited, even with some regression 

[Eris]

I was struck by the absence of Joey Gallo at the top of the strikeout list. If you include everyone else on the had he qualified criteria (Wallner had 254 PA) Wallner would be 28th. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=250&sortcol=9&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[mikelink45]

I would love to see another homegrown "Hrbek" in the lineup.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would love to see another homegrown "Hrbek" in the lineup.

I have my fingers crossed Wallner is something close to Hrbek, he is probably more like Dan Johnson, but either way lets get it done Wallner!

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I actually have a ton of faith in Wallner going forward, though I expect some speed bumps along the way.

Here's what I know and believe:

1] He's a much better athlete than some believe. He's actually pretty fast, even though it might take a step or two to get going.

2] Despite any defensive metric thrown out, I watched him play a ton in LF and he looked much better to me than he did in 2022. His arm is a defensive weapon. His best position is probably RF in the future where he has to cover less ground. At least in Target Field, where he would play 50% of the time. It's not about ability with him, it's about getting better with eye tracking ability. That comes with work and experience. 

3] MLB is obviously different than milb, but EVERY SINGLE YEAR of his milb career he adapted and improved. Even in a relatively SSS he's done that so far. I wish I could remember the game better, but there was a game late in the season where he was sitting 1-2 or 0-2 and the pitch was slightly outside and slower...can't remember change or breaking ball...but you could SEE him hesitate for a moment and put the barrel on the ball and drive it for a HR. That showed me right there that he's got a decent eye and the ability to adjust.

Again, I expect some speed bumps in 2024. 

I posted elsewhere that Wallner reminds me of a good, younger Gallo. The young Gallo, like Wallner, had tremendous power. And he could work the count for BB and a good OB% to go along with that power. But the younger Gallo could actually still HIT. Somewhere along the line, Gallo stopped being able to do so.

I'm not saying Wallner is Gallo Jr. I hope he's better. And he might be. Let's hope so. What I'm saying is the K's are going to come. But the power and BB should also be there as well. And like he's done at every level so far, it's up to him to make the adjustments. But in 319 PA and 270 AB and a quad slash line of .244/ .361/ .482/ .842 it's not hard to get excited, even with some regression 

Hoping he keeps his OBP at .330 or better, that’s regression but not terrible. He will run into 20+ HR’s with 450 AB’s …..maybe 125 starts.

As you state repeatedly, just like with most guys in the Show, there will be some lean to rough stretches. He seems intent on being his best and working on things - his natural bat to ball ability & power will just get better with experience & reps.

I think he’s in a platoon with Margot in LF …….sitting initially against most lefties. Fits Margot and he need rest routinely anyway.

He gets a bunch of compliments on his arm in left, understood. However, he seems a little enamored on how hard he throws the ball into the infield and he makes it difficult on cut-off guys by not just simply making “good/accurate” throw………..a few times he made wild throws to nowhere as well.  refs to reign it in a bit IMO.

Good player with a bunch of upside!

[Guest]

If LF is the Twins weak link, then it's going to be a good year.  Wallner's rise through the organization has been marked by his willingness to adjust, unlike Larnach.  Everybody knows where they'll attack him this season.  My bet is Wallner will keep adjusting....

[Trov]

I am not sold on Wallner as a star, and I am concerned he will regress too much as pitcher continue to adjust.  He was also unplayable against lefties so for now he is at best a platoon guy.  I hope he adjusts to the MLB pitching.  I would point out, the author says had he qualified with enough at bats he would have trailed just 5 hitters for highest k-rate.  Joey Gallo if he had enough at bats would have been way worse, he was at 42.8%.  Heck, Gallo has never had a lower K rate then 34%. 

Personally, I am not a fan of the three true outcome type hitters, they get boring in my mind, but if Wallner stay near where he was he will at least be above average. He is not far off Kyle Schwarber type numbers.  Not superstar, but not bad at all and if you get hot in playoffs could carry a team. 

[TopGunn#22]

Doc Bauer literally said everything I would have.  (and he said it better anyway).  I'm excited to see how 2024 goes for Wallner.  Just the nature of his strengths and weaknesses means he's going to have hot streaks and cold streaks. It's the normal course for a power hitter.  Having Margot gives us a decent platoon option for especially tough lefties but he needs to hit against some lefties to get better.  I agree though, 20-25 HR's in 450 AB's seems VERY possible.   

[saviking]

It's nice to have the depth at left field, and if Kepler gets injured, Wallner can side to right while Larnach takes over left. 

[Riverbrian]

Wallner was a better Gallo than Gallo was. Wallner was what the Twins were hoping Gallo would be. 

What I'm about to say is not a slam against the front office... they have a really hard job and they are much better at than any of us... all teams make these types of mistakes. However, I think it is important to point out that the Twins front office didn't know what Wallner would become in 2023. 

If they knew... they wouldn't have spent 8 figures on Gallo. 

Wallner probably should have been called up sooner in 2022 instead of watching the team fall out of contention with throw away vets like Cave playing every day.   

It wasn't obvious to the evaluators who is better between Larnach and Wallner and Gallo but they have to evaluate and decide based on small margins of difference. It took a bit before they gave Wallner his shot. 

It isn't going to be obvious this year either. Wallner may struggle and Larnach might find the light switch. We don't know what Margot is going to do. Which Kepler will be swinging a bat in 2024. Go down the depth list after those 4 and ask the same question about what they will do in 2024.   

There is only one way to find out. Opportunity! Let the players answer it by performance. I expect Wallner to start on opening day. Come May? I'm hoping he is still here... but... if he is in St. Paul... it wouldn't be the first time that happened with a sophomore coming off a nice freshmen year.  We need to look no further than Miranda to understand the dangers of assuming repeat performance. 

Our depth in the OF is important. We got some... Let the best man continue to play. 

[Doctor Gast]

Baseball is all about adjusting, that's what Wallner has to do & Twins needs to help him to do that as far his hitting. Can they do it? I'll say it again that Wallner has the raw tools to be a star. Twins need to developed  those talents like getting a good jump on the ball, choose the best routes & hit the cut off man, make accurate throws & not strike out so often instead of only focusing on squeezing out some extra HRs. The strike outs, the -2 DRS & OAA are sad. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Although I would love to see Wallner make the necessary adjustments I am concerned that he may hit a sophomore regression this year.  I love his arm and think it'd be great to see a stat that highlights how many extra bases he has saved just with the threat of his arm.

Larnach has to produce this year or I suspect he will be traded.  I also agree with another poster that Margot may get some decent time in LF especially if Buxton stays healthy.  If we see health issues, we could see Martin brought up for LF also.  Pretty decent depth.

Good explanation of platoons (Twin’s philosophy) in the Athletic today - specific to the Twins LH hitters over Team’s history. RH & LH splits are shown……by OPS.

26% of pitchers are LH. If a guy needs to rest 20-25 games/year, if he’s platooned with a right handed hitter, he only misses 20 games or 80 AB’s in a season over the days he’d rest anyway. Meanwhile, the RH hitter in the platoon is hitting above average. Seems to make a lot of sense.

[bean5302]

I've got WAY more faith in Wallner than Julien. Like WAY more. Why?

1. Every single pitch type thrown more than 5% to Wallner, he posted neutral to positive values.
2. Wallner has elite power.
3. Wallner mashed lefties in the minors. 
4. Wallner's strike zone heat maps.

There is a large portion of the strike zone where Wallner has been very successful, and he hit all types of pitches. That's not the kind of batter who has obvious holes for pitchers to exploit to the point I'd expect him to fall down to even league average. He's weak inside, but he crowds the plate so it's natural to expect that, and a miss inside equals a HBP so he gets on base that way. I don't agree with the philosophy, just stating it was a thing last year.

[gman]

Looks like Wallner struck out at the same rate as Buxton. All the hitting numbers for Wallner were better. As far as the question about adjustments go, I think that is the big question every player has every year.