Should we consider having Duran as our other postseason SP?

[Doctor Gast]

There have been a few successful RPs that are transitioning into SPs this season, A J Puk (MIA) & D L Hall (MIL) to name a couple.  I look at our situation & doubt we'll get that 2nd postseason SP. A trade doesn't seem possible anymore, FA is out of the question, I don't trust a deadline acquisition is a good idea. There's hope that Ryan & or Ober will take that big step, but what if they don't? We need a 2nd postseason SP to advance in the postseason.

I'm not for switching Duran to the rotation but I'm entertaining that idea now. Let's say halfway through the season Ryan & Ober haven't progressed enough to fill that spot & Jax, Steward, Thielbar, & Canterino have established themselves as high-leverage RPs with Varland available to pitch there for the postseason, Would you be open for Duran to transition into that 2nd postseason SP? IMO you wouldn't have to convince Duran. Texas won the World Series with a poor BP. Would you risk it? I'm curious what everybody thinks.

[tony&rodney]

Are you looking for a starting pitcher to throw three innings? Jhoan could maybe do that in the post season. Duran would not be able to transition mid year; very unlikely. The reason Jhoan was put into the bullpen was because of too many frequent nagging injuries suffered while trying to be a starting pitcher. Some guys cannot be starting pitchers and others cannot be relievers. The stresses and recovery are different for every pitcher and in those different roles. 

If the Twins believed it was in the best interest for their team to have Duran in the starting rotation, there would be a program put in place for a series of workups for Jhoan to work on all during the offseason. 

As always, never say never .... but no.

[chpettit19]

I think if you're going to make that transition you have to start it in spring training. Waiting until halfway through the year to start trying to stretch him out would be far more complicated I think. And how do you decide if it's working well enough to actually let him be a full go postseason #2 starter? The mid-season transition just feels way too complicated to pull off. 

[Squirrel]

No, I don’t risk it. 

[Craig Arko]

I’d play to make the post-season first. Disrupting the team midway through the season does not seem like an optimal choice towards this goal.

[Doctor Gast]

What do you think of starting transitioning  Duran now?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

What do you think of starting transitioning  Duran now?

I think "risking" 1 guy you're not sure can hold up to starting is enough in a season, and this year that guy is Canterino to me. I'm also not sold on a lot of the bullpen arms (just the nature of relievers) and taking Duran out of the pen at this point would put a question mark (both health and performance) in the rotation while also making the pen a giant question mark. 

I'm generally in for taking big swings because they're needed to win a title, but that would be too big of a swing for me. Adds question marks without really having any sure thing answer. If I knew for sure he could hold up and dominate I'd be all for it, but there's too many questions for me when it comes to him as a starter and what the pen would be like without him.

[danielp19653]

I'm not inherently against Duran opening a playoff game but like other people stated you're probably looking at best case 3 innings. So you make it a bullpen game at that point, maybe that's better if the bullpen is a strength and you know you have 2-3 days before the next game and can get everybody ready again by then. Unless Lopez is used and no other starter is performing and you're at the end of a series I just don't see it making sense. Better off telling Paddock or Varland to give everything they have for 4 innings and have an extended bullpen day then start it off right away with Duran

[Riverbrian]

Jordan Hicks is another guy who will be attempting to do the trick this year. 

It's a fair question that is going to require traditional thinkers to recover from the shock of the question before they can seriously consider it.

Would I do it. Nope... I wouldn't go that far because Duran is one of the best in baseball but I've said this before... I would look for ways to increase his innings and not just limit him to 9th inning when we have a lead by 3 runs or less. Deploy that weapon whenever we need it... Squeeze some extra zero's out of him when you can. Increase his innings from 62 to 100. That will be 38 innings less for pitchers who are not as good. Get extra innings out of anyone pitching well in the bullpen. If you get more innings out of Jax and Stewart as well, They could add up to 100 innings not need to be thrown by an innings eater.  

Rather than an innings eater in the rotation... I'm OK with the bullpen handing the 5th day instead if need be. Why deploy a 5.00 ERA innings eating starter if your bullpen is posting a 3.95 collectively. 

When searching for the best 13 arms. Search for the best 13 arms. If you want to be a starter and pitch 150 plus innings. to justify that usage, you should at least produce better than the bullpen produces collectively. 

 

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Increase his innings from 62 to 100. That will be 38 innings less for pitchers who are not as good. Get extra innings out of anyone pitching well in the bullpen. If you get more innings out of Jax and Stewart as well, They could add up to 100 innings not need to be thrown by an innings eater.  

My biggest worry about that strategy is the bullpen would be gassed in October. I'm for getting more innings out of them but not at the expense of availability in October.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

My biggest worry about that strategy is the bullpen would be gassed in October. I'm for getting more innings out of them but not at the expense of availability in October.

I would also worry about that due to the lack of precedence. It has been done before to both failure and success.  

However... there has to be middle ground between 180 innings as a starter and 60 innings as a reliever. There has to be because middle ground is everywhere but sometimes we don't think about it.    

I was at a party talking with a friend (acquaintance). She was really really pissed at her husband. She told me that she hated him. I thought that was odd because last week she was telling me how wonderful he was.  

I asker her if it was possible if she was just disappointed with him at the moment. I was hoping she could find that middle ground between the extremes.  

Thankfully, somebody else called me away to have a heavy conversation on the best rock bands of the 70's. So, I was able to excuse myself out of that conversation.   

[Parfigliano]

Maybe make the playoffs first then worry about post season rotation scenario's.

[Jerr]

Simple, NO.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Jordan Hicks is another guy who will be attempting to do the trick this year. 

It's a fair question that is going to require traditional thinkers to recover from the shock of the question before they can seriously consider it.

Would I do it. Nope... I wouldn't go that far because Duran is one of the best in baseball but I've said this before... I would look for ways to increase his innings and not just limit him to 9th inning when we have a lead by 3 runs or less. Deploy that weapon whenever we need it... Squeeze some extra zero's out of him when you can. Increase his innings from 62 to 100. That will be 38 innings less for pitchers who are not as good. Get extra innings out of anyone pitching well in the bullpen. If you get more innings out of Jax and Stewart as well, They could add up to 100 innings not need to be thrown by an innings eater.  

Rather than an innings eater in the rotation... I'm OK with the bullpen handing the 5th day instead if need be. Why deploy a 5.00 ERA innings eating starter if your bullpen is posting a 3.95 collectively. 

When searching for the best 13 arms. Search for the best 13 arms. If you want to be a starter and pitch 150 plus innings. to justify that usage, you should at least produce better than the bullpen produces collectively. 

 

It's good to keep the rotation rested but also concerned about overstretching certain high-leverage arms as to cause injury or inefficiency. That's why I like long relief, I think we have pitchers can do very well there.

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's good to keep the rotation rested but also concerned about overstretching certain high-leverage arms as to cause injury or inefficiency. That's why I like long relief, I think we have pitchers can do very well there.

The question comes down to proper rest. Based on usage... we can reasonably conclude that Starters after 100 pitches are rested at minimum 4 days and we can reasonably conclude that the one inning reliever typically can pitch back to back days with a day of rest on the third day. 

So if relief pitcher X throws 3 innings... how much rest is required. 

Long relief is a defined role that has been in place for decades. Availability and rest is also an issue with long relief. There are times when starters get pulled early on back to back days and one LR can't manage that. 

Essentially... what I am thinking about by stretching out the entire bullpen... is in theory creating multiple long inning guys. 

Will it work... I don't know. Just something that I've been theorizing for a long time now.  

[CRF]

No. He's much more valuable closing. 

[Doctor Gast]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The question comes down to proper rest. Based on usage... we can reasonably conclude that Starters after 100 pitches are rested at minimum 4 days and we can reasonably conclude that the one inning reliever typically can pitch back to back days with a day of rest on the third day. 

So if relief pitcher X throws 3 innings... how much rest is required. 

Long relief is a defined role that has been in place for decades. Availability and rest is also an issue with long relief. There are times when starters get pulled early on back to back days and one LR can't manage that. 

SPs that are pulled early on back to back really take a toll on 1 inning RPs.

Quote

 

Essentially... what I am thinking about by stretching out the entire bullpen... is in theory creating multiple long inning guys. 

Will it work... I don't know. Just something that I've been theorizing for a long time now.  

 

I really like the idea. 

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The question comes down to proper rest. Based on usage... we can reasonably conclude that Starters after 100 pitches are rested at minimum 4 days and we can reasonably conclude that the one inning reliever typically can pitch back to back days with a day of rest on the third day. 

So if relief pitcher X throws 3 innings... how much rest is required. 

Long relief is a defined role that has been in place for decades. Availability and rest is also an issue with long relief. There are times when starters get pulled early on back to back days and one LR can't manage that. 

Essentially... what I am thinking about by stretching out the entire bullpen... is in theory creating multiple long inning guys. 

Will it work... I don't know. Just something that I've been theorizing for a long time now.  

The usual routine is that the rubber arm pitchers can throw a couple of days in a row (one reasonably quick inning) before a day off. Three days in a row is not that common for effective (just so we understand we are not referring to 6.00 ERA types) pitchers. When a pitcher goes three innings the usual time off is a minimum of 3-4 days or more depending on pitches, velocity, and stress of game pitches thrown. Pitchers respond differently to usage.

[Riverbrian]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:45 PM, tony&rodney said:

The usual routine is that the rubber arm pitchers can throw a couple of days in a row (one reasonably quick inning) before a day off. Three days in a row is not that common for effective (just so we understand we are not referring to 6.00 ERA types) pitchers. When a pitcher goes three innings the usual time off is a minimum of 3-4 days or more depending on pitches, velocity, and stress of game pitches thrown. Pitchers respond differently to usage.

Rest is the X factor in what is ultimately a math problem. 

There are approximately 25 weeks of baseball. Duran threw 62 IP last year which is an average of 2.5 IP a week. 1.5 more innings a week will put him at 100 IP and increase the usage of the best pitcher on the staff.

4 IP every 6.5 games will get him to 100. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting question and interesting discussion.  Having thought about it and read all the posts, I am of the opinion that Duran needs to be left at relief pitcher and be available for the 9th inning. Duran deserves to know what to expect as far as when he might be used in a game, so he can have a regular routine. 

[JD-TWINS]

To me, insanity!

Let’s move Lee Smith to our 2nd starter …..let’s move Kenley Jansen to our 2nd starter……let’s move Bruce Sutter to our 2nd starter …….,let’s move Rollie Fingers to our 2nd starter ….,…let’s move Mariano Rivera to our 2nd starter……come on!

Never heard these comments from any of these team’s management…..don’t care how thin the rotation may have been at any point in time.

He’s in the Top 6 relievers in the game over 6 different pundits on MLB network’s 2024 predictions. He’s number 3 on a couple lists.

His stuff is fabulous - his physique sure denotes the ability to hold up physically as a starter - he’s had some arm issues though - my rub is his ability to focus pitch to pitch. I think many of his troubles, on the few occasions he has troubles, are between his ears. That alone doesn’t bode well for a starting pitcher.

[Rosterman]

No. His mix is best when he throws a max of 35-40 pitches, preferably less. I'm still not sure I like the idea of him having to get even four outs for the team, when the need arises. This is a pivotal year. Can he hold down the closers role so the Twins will consider extending him for 5-6 years as such an arm.

The only otehr choice right now might be developing Canterino as a future closer, although I would currently ry and stretch him out for a starter...see if that can happen. But he is still a solid season away from contributing to the pen. Otherwise, no, to ax, Thielbar, Stewart as longterm closers.

 

[FilthyMogwai]

No, that's absolutely crazy and reeks of desperation.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 3/4/2024 at 9:00 AM, chpettit19 said:

I think "risking" 1 guy you're not sure can hold up to starting is enough in a season, and this year that guy is Canterino to me. I'm also not sold on a lot of the bullpen arms (just the nature of relievers) and taking Duran out of the pen at this point would put a question mark (both health and performance) in the rotation while also making the pen a giant question mark. 

I'm generally in for taking big swings because they're needed to win a title, but that would be too big of a swing for me. Adds question marks without really having any sure thing answer. If I knew for sure he could hold up and dominate I'd be all for it, but there's too many questions for me when it comes to him as a starter and what the pen would be like without him.

Canterino looks like a beauty candidate to pitch late innings out of the bullpen though. That funky delivery is going to get a lot of swing and misses the first time he faces guys IMO.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:55 AM, Doctor Gast said:

What do you think of starting transitioning  Duran now?

I wouldn't. 

Just don't feel like he will be as effective. Plus you risk him getting hurt. I like having a hammer in the bullpen to come in a throw GAS. He's intimidating when we have a lead. 

I mean, if he could remain dominant all through his starts if used that way, then it might be worth a try, but having a closer that is as studly as Duran is, is HUGE to a contending team. 

[jorgenswest]

One challenge could be the number of pitches he throws per inning approaches 16.5. Joe Ryan has a similar ratio. Perhaps he would pitch to more contact as a starter to lower the number. Would bhe be as effective pitching to more contact? He might also find himself in longer at bats the second time he faces a batter. As a starter would he consistently get through 6 in a reasonable pitch count?

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Canterino looks like a beauty candidate to pitch late innings out of the bullpen though. That funky delivery is going to get a lot of swing and misses the first time he faces guys IMO.

That most certainly may be where he ends up, and I'd bet it's where he debuts in 2024, but he's got the most upside of any arm in their system so I think it's worth building him up as a starter to begin the season before moving him to the pen to limit his innings later in the year. They're starving for a homegrown ace, and he's the closest guy to the bigs with any sort of chance to be that.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:18 AM, Doctor Gast said:

There have been a few successful RPs that are transitioning into SPs this season, A J Puk (MIA) & D L Hall (MIL) to name a couple.  I look at our situation & doubt we'll get that 2nd postseason SP. A trade doesn't seem possible anymore, FA is out of the question, I don't trust a deadline acquisition is a good idea. There's hope that Ryan & or Ober will take that big step, but what if they don't? We need a 2nd postseason SP to advance in the postseason.

I'm not for switching Duran to the rotation but I'm entertaining that idea now. Let's say halfway through the season Ryan & Ober haven't progressed enough to fill that spot & Jax, Steward, Thielbar, & Canterino have established themselves as high-leverage RPs with Varland available to pitch there for the postseason, Would you be open for Duran to transition into that 2nd postseason SP? IMO you wouldn't have to convince Duran. Texas won the World Series with a poor BP. Would you risk it? I'm curious what everybody thinks.

Do we though?  Did Arizona have one?  Did Texas have one?  And are we sure we already don't have someone that could fill the void?  I think I would rather have Paddack than Gray in a 1 and done playoff scenario.  He did better in the postseason than Gray albeit in a different role.  

[DJL44]

Moving him to the rotation for the playoffs doesn't make any sense. The regular season is when you get the most payoff moving an arm to the rotation because you can triple the number of innings you get from the pitcher. In the playoffs the trend is for starting pitchers to throw fewer innings than they did during the season and lean heavily on the bullpen. It's better to use him 3 innings in a best of 5 series to close out 3 wins than it is to get 4 innings from him in a single start and have him unavailable otherwise.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That most certainly may be where he ends up, and I'd bet it's where he debuts in 2024, but he's got the most upside of any arm in their system so I think it's worth building him up as a starter to begin the season before moving him to the pen to limit his innings later in the year. They're starving for a homegrown ace, and he's the closest guy to the bigs with any sort of chance to be that.

I get he’s been healing since the Fall but still fresh off surgery…….not a great health history……...GAS for 12-25 pitches at a time seems like a sound usage for Canterino this year. Get him 55-70 innings between ST. PAUL & The Show. Big affect on Team’s success with this approach. If he holds up in ‘24, stretch him out over the Winter and into Spring of ‘25. IMO.