Behind the Minnesota Twins’ Low 2024 Payroll is a Big 2025 Increase

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

3 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Discuss away Obi-Wan 

So that the replies could completely ignore what I wrote in favor of slinging mud? That's not my kind of kink. 

[Schmoeman5]

Just now, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

So that the replies could completely ignore what I wrote in favor of slinging mud? That's not my kind of kink. 

I'm not slinging mud. Nor am I the one on a pulpit. Preach

[Woof Bronzer]

This article describes the process of managing a payroll that every single team is faced with.   There's nothing unusual about the Twins situation, so let's hold off on the sympathy for having to do their job.

For reference, an extra $45mil to the Pohlads is the equivalent of $523 to the average American net worth.  

Those poor, poor, Pohlads.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Excellent review of what the Twins are facing going forward.

I expect the payroll was more than they wanted in 2023.  2024 will be under what they could absorb, now that a tv deal is in place.  And 2025 looks like it is going to be a big problem.  Sure makes sense to me that they would conserve their spending this year.

Also makes it almost 100% certain that Max is gone next year.  Not real certain who they have for right field that I can get excited about.  I guess the best case would be Wallner with either ERod or the wonderboy, Jenkins, shocks the heck out of everyone and takes that left field spot.  

Expect the only other player who could give them real dollars would be to revisit trading Vazquez.  You are showing an increase of around $22.61M.  Without any other adds, that would put them around $140+M.  We don't know what the tv revenue will be and whether or not that works.  Unfortunately, neither do the Twins.  Hopefully, they are having meaningful discussions with the league about how their streaming service would work and the dollars the Twins could expect from it.

I do not see (a Big Fan of Kyle) Farmer back with the Team in ‘25………….Lee & Martin & maybe Prato (or like) bump him off the roster at $770K. That’s a $7M reduction to the estimated $140M.

If the Twins were at a major league (based on market size) commensurate Payroll of 17th in ‘23, why is a budget of $133M scary 2 years later??????? Not personal question - question to the group. There will be TV money at a minimum, to match this year’s revenue…..no excuse there.

Wallner is in RF in ‘25. DeSclafani is gone by then, if not prior. Santana - Farmer - 

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

In terms of comments...

1. Some will continue to name dumping Vazquez as a way of saving money. I'm not so sure. Either he plays well and the Twins want to retain him at $10M or he plays poorly and the Twins would have to cover a part of his salary to trade him. 
2. Farmer and Alcala are both on mutual options. These rarely get taken. Either the player plays poorly and the team declines it or the player plays well and wants to test the market. 
3. From a roster management standpoint, it's hard not to see Larnach and some of the guys in the Arb 2/Arb 3 category as non-tender candidates. We can't guess which ones at this point, but probably one or two. If they all play well and worth tendering, that's a great problem to have! 

IMO - if Alcala is healthy, he’ll perform. His cost next year might be $2.5M or so ……he’s a maybe. Farmer is gone due to push from younger options and his cost.

[Karbo]

17 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Hahahha the Twins propaganda machine has brainwashed you into oblivion if you think any MLB owner takes a loss, ever.  The value of the franchise has grown by a billion dollars since they bought it, and the team received a half billion dollar subsidy from fans.  Yes, the people of the state of MN have helped make the Pohlads even more wildy wealthy than they were, and yes, I think that means the Pohlads have a civic duty to spend appropriately.  Professional sports franchises are NOT "just another business".  Every business does not receive welfare to the tune of $500mil, so why would we treat the Twins as such?

I continue to be blown away by the number of fans who blindly do the Pohlads propaganda work for them in order to...what?  I don't know.  I really don't.  

Were you around during Calvin's years? I was and I'll take the Pohlads over that all day long.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, weneedneshek said:

So doing the math, there is a net increase on the books of $22M next year. That would still put us over $20M under LAST years salary. What is the purpose of this article?

They are currently around $121M - that’s what I’ve seen……….assuming they will release or sign & trade Farmer in ‘25……$7M more off the total. So, $15M added to this year’s total - end up at $136M…………at that point they are $18M under ‘23’s total of $154M.

In ‘23 they were 17th in payroll and it fit with their history and their market size.

Gotta get back to $155M next year at a minimum!

[Karbo]

20 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

If either Correa or Buxton have good healthy seasons, should they be considered on the block?  

they both have no-trade a clause.

[sweetmusicviola16]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

that said, I 100% think this is why payroll is what it is this year.

I also think they believe (rightly?) in the SP in AA and AAA and don't think they need to sign a FA SP to a 2+ year deal. 

I think this is 100% accurate. I think they are going with DeSclafani and youth. Varland, and he should get every oppurtunity. Not that I personally wouldn't want Montgomery if the price was right, I would. I long advocated for Ryu but he has now went back to Korea. Let's hope we see the 2021 DeSclafani version.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thank you for laying this all out.  So next year costs go up and expected revenues go down. Some things might change around the edges, of course.  But the directional gist is correct.

Do my fellow TDers really think that our owners have some sort of civic duty to run the team at a cash loss year in and year out? Should they just be satisfied with capital appreciation and forget operating earnings/cash flow? Are we as fans not receiving a fairly consistent high level of baseball entertainment from our supposedly parsimonious owners?

Sure, we don’t have Stevie Cohen as our owner or the revenues of the Dodgers or Yankees.  But overall we are a pretty well run franchise that does most things the right way.  I’ll take our level of entertainment and success over a lot of the rest of the league, including some bigger market 

Smart move for Cohen would have been buy the Twins (if available)  instead of the Mets.  Twins would have been cheaper and come with a better overall organization.  Having the Twins running his payroll instead of the chronically dysfunctional Met organization might have bought him something.

[Schmoeman5]

As businessmen  I'm sure the owners were well aware of this. They also knew that there'd be a new negotiated TV deal coming after last season. Fans may not always agree with how they do things meaning ownership. But as long as it seems as if they're trying to put a good product out there. Fans will be more engaged. I don't know what their plan is but I'm ready to roll with the flow. Some might not be so happy with what may seem like ownership doesnt care. That's fine too. Both sides will watch so one or the other can say. "See, I told you"

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Were you around during Calvin's years? I was and I'll take the Pohlads over that all day long.

I was around for Calvin too. He didn't have mega millions backing him up. He couldn't afford to lose 5 million on a season. I get it, most didn't like Calvin. I neither like or dislike him. But lets also be fair.The situation each owner faced is not the same.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't believe they have ever run at a cash loss with the possible exception of the pandemic year.

They dont have to open the books so except for the Twins no one knows the real numbers.

[weneedneshek]

13 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They are currently around $121M - that’s what I’ve seen……….assuming they will release or sign & trade Farmer in ‘25……$7M more off the total. So, $15M added to this year’s total - end up at $136M…………at that point they are $18M under ‘23’s total of $154M.

In ‘23 they were 17th in payroll and it fit with their history and their market size.

Gotta get back to $155M next year at a minimum!

Not sure where your numbers are coming from but here are the Spotrac ones. We are currently at $112M this year and were at $159M last year. We are currently at 19th in the MLB

[IndianaTwin]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

....IMO - if Alcala is healthy, he’ll perform. His cost next year might be $2.5M or so ……he’s a maybe. Farmer is gone due to push from younger options and his cost.

I only quoted part that responded to my post. I agree with your take on both of these. Though I noted that mutual options are rarely taken, Alcala's is the kind that might. 

EDIT to add: It made me wonder why they would have put in a mutual option with Alcala, since he's still Arb eligible. If I'm reading this right, according to https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/jorge-alcala-32837/, it's actually a team option, which makes more sense. In his case, they have essentially locked in their Arb 3 agreement for 2025 if they want it, in exchange for giving Alcala what amounts to a $55k parting gift if they choose to non-tender him.   

[Parfigliano]

54 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Poor Pohlads, how ever will they survive?

Coupons maybe?

[Nashvilletwin]

39 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Hahahha the Twins propaganda machine has brainwashed you into oblivion if you think any MLB owner takes a loss, ever.  The value of the franchise has grown by a billion dollars since they bought it, and the team received a half billion dollar subsidy from fans.  Yes, the people of the state of MN have helped make the Pohlads even more wildy wealthy than they were, and yes, I think that means the Pohlads have a civic duty to spend appropriately.  Professional sports franchises are NOT "just another business".  Every business does not receive welfare to the tune of $500mil, so why would we treat the Twins as such?

I continue to be blown away by the number of fans who blindly do the Pohlads propaganda work for them in order to...what?  I don't know.  I really don't.  

lol.  Propagandist for the Pohlads.   Hilarious. Trust me, I have no desire to carry any water for the Pohlad family.  

Were those deals not done at arms length?  Do you not believe that the Twins have brought value to the Twins Cities/Minneapolis? Do you really think the Twins have bad owners?

Again, the expectation from some is that owners should be blindly willing to spend in order to satisfy their egos and/or deliver a championship to their city.  Sure, both those factors can be relevant, but it’s just not the same for an every owner. The Pohlads on the whole have been solid owners.  The product they deliver has been overall good. The franchise is well run for the most part.

Have the Mets done that much better? How about the Angels?  Which AL Central team’s ownership would you swap for the Pohlads? How about the AL West, other than Texas?

I have no idea what the annual cash flow or the operating margins of the Twins are - I’d wager that they are mostly positive but very lean.  And they are lean for precisely the reasons you point out - they want to win and, yes, they want to deliver a championship to the Twins Cities. However, there should be no expectation that they, or anyone, should run a business at a annual loss - regardless of capital appreciation, 

 

 

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Very disappointing to see so many people's takeaway from this article is to sling more "pocket protector" mud when the author states many times that the payroll drop is negative.

The unrelenting desire to be negative has ruined the comments of an article I guarantee none of you had previously thought about, in a way that attributes some kind of billionaire defense that doesn't exist.

I swear some people are physically incapable of discussing the Twins without devolving into a whine-fest about the payroll. Yes, it's sheisty how they run the team like a greedy greedy business but does every comment section need to be a black void of people shouting into the ether about the payroll? My god, it's so tiresome. 

It's an article about the payroll so it's pretty reasonable to expect some opinions that are going to be negative. Especially when there's some pretty disputable numbers. An increase of 2.61 for Farmer, Jackson, and Alcala? I'll take the under on that. By at least 9 million. Duran and Jax each getting an extra million in arb 1? Josh Hader didn't even get that. I'll take that arb 1 group for an extra 8 instead of 10. Arb 2 and 3 players? Jeffers will be back for an extra 2.5-3.5, and Kirlloff is a decent bet for an extra mil or 2. The other 4 are prime non-tender guys as a league average hitter utility guy and middle relievers. So I'll take that group for an extra 5-6 instead of 9.

It's an article based on "worst case" scenario for spending. If Farmer is on this team next year it means a bunch of guys most fans are counting on in 2024 failed. If a 37 year old Jay Jackson is on this team in 2025 it means things have gone terribly with their pitching prospects. I just took a pretty straight forward 14 to 15 mil off his projection. Now it's an increase of 5 million. So, yeah, there's going to be some pushback on every article, and when it's about the payroll and it's easy to combat the numbers provided there's going to be pushback about "pocket protecting." 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's an article about the payroll so it's pretty reasonable to expect some opinions that are going to be negative. Especially when there's some pretty disputable numbers. An increase of 2.61 for Farmer, Jackson, and Alcala? I'll take the under on that. By at least 9 million. Duran and Jax each getting an extra million in arb 1? Josh Hader didn't even get that. I'll take that arb 1 group for an extra 8 instead of 10. Arb 2 and 3 players? Jeffers will be back for an extra 2.5-3.5, and Kirlloff is a decent bet for an extra mil or 2. The other 4 are prime non-tender guys as a league average hitter utility guy and middle relievers. So I'll take that group for an extra 5-6 instead of 9.

It's an article based on "worst case" scenario for spending. If Farmer is on this team next year it means a bunch of guys most fans are counting on in 2024 failed. If a 37 year old Jay Jackson is on this team in 2025 it means things have gone terribly with their pitching prospects. I just took a pretty straight forward 14 to 15 mil off his projection. Now it's an increase of 5 million. So, yeah, there's going to be some pushback on every article, and when it's about the payroll and it's easy to combat the numbers provided there's going to be pushback about "pocket protecting." 

Thank you for discussing why you actually disagree with the article without immediately devolving into name calling!

[IndianaTwin]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

that said, I 100% think this is why payroll is what it is this year.

I also think they believe (rightly?) in the SP in AA and AAA and don't think they need to sign a FA SP to a 2+ year deal. 

I concur on both statements, particularly the second. After a lot of folks spent last year saying, "Play the kids," maybe that's what they are expecting to do on the SP side. I'm not smart enough to guess whether they will be right, but it's encouraging if they are indeed that high on them.

I think you also make a crucial distinction between signing a 1 vs. 2+ year deal. At most, I could see a 1 + option for someone like Thor. I was intrigued with the thought of Ryu, but it looks like he's headed back home. 

[nicksaviking]

***********Moderator Note***********

Too many posts are taking matters personally with other posters. Stick to the topic and stop with the accusations.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Yea the idea that a franchise purchased for $32 million increased in value to almost $2 billion but doesnt make a profit on an annual basis is pretty far fetched 

Agreed, with one minor sticking point.

Carl Pohlad bought 94% of Minnesota Twins stock in 1984 for ~$43.5M, not $32M.

Calvin Griffith got $32M for his 52% share of the franchise, a group of Tampa Bay investors got roughly $11.5M for their 42% stake. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's an article about the payroll so it's pretty reasonable to expect some opinions that are going to be negative. Especially when there's some pretty disputable numbers. An increase of 2.61 for Farmer, Jackson, and Alcala? I'll take the under on that. By at least 9 million. Duran and Jax each getting an extra million in arb 1? Josh Hader didn't even get that. I'll take that arb 1 group for an extra 8 instead of 10. Arb 2 and 3 players? Jeffers will be back for an extra 2.5-3.5, and Kirlloff is a decent bet for an extra mil or 2. The other 4 are prime non-tender guys as a league average hitter utility guy and middle relievers. So I'll take that group for an extra 5-6 instead of 9.

It's an article based on "worst case" scenario for spending. If Farmer is on this team next year it means a bunch of guys most fans are counting on in 2024 failed. If a 37 year old Jay Jackson is on this team in 2025 it means things have gone terribly with their pitching prospects. I just took a pretty straight forward 14 to 15 mil off his projection. Now it's an increase of 5 million. So, yeah, there's going to be some pushback on every article, and when it's about the payroll and it's easy to combat the numbers provided there's going to be pushback about "pocket protecting." 

Agree that we "hope" Farmer's option doesn't get picked up (and that he gets traded instead?), because Lee, et al., proved him to be redundant.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like Hader did get a sizable jump in Arb 1. If this is accurate, $1 million may be significantly underselling Duran's raise. (Let me know if I've misread, and I'll cut this part.)

[weneedneshek]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

To outline the fact that the Twins have uncertain revenue outlooks for next year, and due to the combination of that and a near guarantee of increased payroll, the historically conservative Twins are operating conservatively.

I don't think their revenues are very uncertain at all actually. They will be getting a VERY large sum of money for broadcast rights next year. We literally just went through their spin on this over the past 3 months and you're still giving them that talking point?

We are in agreement on the twins being cheap, I'm just going to argue against it instead of defend it. Until they open their books (never, because then we'd all know the ride they are taking us on) they should not get an ounce of defense in spending money.

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

But overall we are a pretty well run franchise that does most things the right way.  I’ll take our level of entertainment and success over a lot of the rest of the league, including some bigger market teams.   

That is an interesting take.  I guess we just have differing opinions of overall success of a well run franchise.  Since 2011 we have had 1 59 win season, 3 60-69 win seasons, 4 70-79 win seasons, 3 80-89 win seasons, an equivalent to a 90+ win season (2020) and 1 100+ win season.  That is 8 below .500 seasons and 5 above .500 season, while scraping out only 3 division titles in 13 years.  

[farmerguychris]

I think this article is spot on.... BUT, while some businesses would simply take the extra cash we're soon to get from our 1-year Bally deal and stash it away for increased payroll next year - does baseball operate that way?  OR, will they simply absorb it into their profits and then next year the fans will need to worry if we are going to be able to field a competitive team?  If they were to put it aside so that when next year arrives they can pay out these raises - I'm happy, but if the other option prevails - then we're back to where we started this year except with a higher on-the-books payroll than we started this offseason with.... and still no idea on tv revenues.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, lukeduke1980 said:

If either Correa or Buxton have good healthy seasons, should they be considered on the block?  

They have no trade clause contracts.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Agree that we "hope" Farmer's option doesn't get picked up (and that he gets traded instead?), because Lee, et al., proved him to be redundant.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like Hader did get a sizable jump in Arb 1. If this is accurate, $1 million may be significantly underselling Duran's raise. (Let me know if I've misread, and I'll cut this part.)

Interesting. Spotrac is showing very different numbers. I take back my stance on Duran/Jax if your numbers are correct. Probably a prorated thing for that being the 2020 season that I didn't take into account.

[Peter Labuza]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Agree that we "hope" Farmer's option doesn't get picked up (and that he gets traded instead?), because Lee, et al., proved him to be redundant.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it looks like Hader did get a sizable jump in Arb 1. If this is accurate, $1 million may be significantly underselling Duran's raise. (Let me know if I've misread, and I'll cut this part.)

Oh nice find. I was looking at recent relievers across the league but didn't check any top closers.  He also apparently famously got screwed in Arb (he asked for over $6 million and the Brewers famously cited his lack of saves, which is why he starter to refuse doing anything but close). I think probably between that group you can still estimate around $10 million unless everyone out performs this year.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

They are currently around $121M - that’s what I’ve seen……….assuming they will release or sign & trade Farmer in ‘25……$7M more off the total. So, $15M added to this year’s total - end up at $136M…………at that point they are $18M under ‘23’s total of $154M.

In ‘23 they were 17th in payroll and it fit with their history and their market size.

Gotta get back to $155M next year at a minimum!

Do you understand they had a windfall of $30M last year?  I am going to keep saying it as long as people keep ignoring.  Not one person has acknowledged they had $30M windfall last year that they are not getting again.  It astonishes me that people continue to pretend the BAM money did not lead to record spending.  We are pretending the revenue loss is only associated with TV revenue.  If you received a $30,000 bonus this year and opted to give your 3 children 10,000 each, what would you say if they insisted upon getting $10,000 this year and every year going forward?

[Major League Ready]

Bravo Peter.  We have not seen this type of objectivity, nor have we seen details listed to support conclusions as you have done here.