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Posted

We spent the past couple of weeks counting down our picks for the top 20 prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization entering 2024. Let's review the list and what it says about the state of the farm system.

Before the start of spring training each year, Twins Daily asks our group of writers to share their preseason rankings of top Twins prospects. We take the results, calculate them, and arrive at a consensus board that informs our annual Twins Daily Top Prospects countdown.

It should be noted that this list merely serves as a starting point for our real-time top prospect rankings, which are updated throughout the season with new stats and blurbs. I highly recommend bookmarking that page if you're a prospect hound who wants to keep a close tab on rising talent in the system.

For now, here's a rundown of our rankings to open the 2024 season, with links to read more and analysis of key themes that emerged from the list.

Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects of 2024
(Click on the player's name to read their full prospect profile from our team.)

20. Zebby Matthews, RHP: Strike-throwing machine buzzed through Low-A.
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Stock is fading, but he's still youngish.
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF: Intriguing because he can hit and can play catcher.
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Down with another elbow injury, but a bright talent.
16. Matt Canterino, RHP: Returning from his own elbow injury, primed for impact.
15. Yunior Severino, 1B: One-tool player whose power is worth price of admission.
14. Danny De Andrade, SS: Toolsy teenager is rounding into impressive form.
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP: 13th-rounder raised his profile with strong pro debut.
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF: Can his classic run-producer profile overcome poor glove?
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B: Advanced college bat handled minors in his first taste.
10. Tanner Schobel, 2B: One step ahead of Keaschall, at Double-A, but similar mold.
9. Brandon Winokur, OF: High-school draft pick flashed eye-popping power tool.
8. Charlee Soto, RHP: Another prep pick poised to rise fast with advanced stuff.
7. Cory Lewis, RHP: Deep pitch mix headlined by knuckleball distinguishes him.
6. Austin Martin, OF: Shook off injuries and struggles with redeeming second half.
5. David Festa, RHP: Near-ready with MLB stuff if he can keep it in the zone.
4. Marco Raya, RHP: Stellar results in limited sample due to cautious handling.
3½. Gabriel González, OF: Newly acquired outfielder is aggressive but can mash.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Rare power/patience combo threatened by contact woes.
2. Brooks Lee, SS: Convincing first full season in minors has him at doorstep of majors.
1. Walker Jenkins, OF: Top draft pick showed to be full package in dominant debut.

Where Does the Twins' Farm System Rank Among MLB Teams?
It's easy to read through all these profiles of promising young players and feel excited about the future. But that is the nature of prospects. Every organization across the league is bursting with young talent, so it's all relative. You might wonder how Minnesota's stable of prospects on whole compares against other organizations around the league. The answer: right around the middle of the pack.

In Keith Law's ranking of MLB farm systems at The Athletic, he had the Twins ranked 17th out of 30. Baseball America has them 14th. According to Fangraphs, Minnesota's farm system currently ranks 15th. 

While one might consider it disappointing that the Twins are viewed by outsiders as having an average system, there are two things to consider. The first is that much of their young impact talent has already graduated to the majors. Including last year's historic rookie class of Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner would significantly lift this overall group in perception. Secondly, Minnesota's system is noticeably rich in high-end talent, featuring two players who are consensus top-30 prospects (Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee) and another who cracks the top 50 on most lists (Emmanuel Rodriguez). 

A Late Addition to the List
The announcement of the Jorge Polanco trade took place with our 2024 preseason prospect rankings already baked, and our countdown already underway. Still, we felt it was important to represent the newcomer Gabriel González in these rankings somehow, given that his addition does meaningfully impact the overall quality of the system.

Obviously, we're not as familiar with González's game as the Twins prospects we've been closely following, but the general view on him is strong enough (top-100 rankings from MLB and The Athletic) that we felt comfortably sneaking him into the top five, between Rodriguez and Raya as our "3½-ranked" prospect for this year. Fellow newcomer Darren Bowen might slot somewhere into the back end of the top 20, but his placement felt less clear, so we'll sort that out for our season-opening update next month.

Having González basically side-by-side with Rodriguez in our rankings makes for a "beautifully asymmetrical pair," as JD Cameron put it in his E-Rod writeup. Both are outfielders at similar stages of development, but one is a bulky, aggressive swing-at-everything force and the other is an ultra-patient athletic oddity. 

Pivotal Year for the Pitching Pipeline
Among pitching prospects in our top 20, several are of the same mold – college pitchers drafted in the middle rounds with a goal of unlocking new levels of success. David Festa, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Zebby Matthews and several who just missed the cut share this characterization. These are the types of draft-and-develop projects Derek Falvey was hired to spearhead.

Big tests lie ahead for all of these hurlers, as Festa vies for a shot in the majors and others navigate the transition to the upper minors. We're going to have a much better picture of the true quality of Minnesota's pitching pipeline by the end of this year. As things stand, the front office appears poised to lean on this prospect depth with a lack of impactful additions to the rotation this offseason.

Prioritizing Power Bats
The Twins front office has clearly placed an emphasis on power-hitting in building their major-league offense, and that reflects in the makeup of their top hitting prospects in the minors. With the stark exception of Austin Martin (who was notably drafted with a high pick by another team), virtually every position player in this top 20 counts power as a primary offensive strength. In some cases – Rodriguez, Brandon Winokur, Kala'i Rosario, Yunior Severino, etc. – the big question is whether these players can develop enough contact skill to limit strikeouts and make that immense power viable. 

The 2B Pipeline
It's notable that, within the past 12 months or so, the Twins have shipped out three players who were not-so-long-ago considered key to their depth and outlook at second base. Polanco, Luis Arraez and Nick Gordon combined to make 156 of the team's 162 starts at the position in 2022, and now all are gone. But as you look at this list of upcoming high-quality talent, it becomes easier to see why the Twins were willing to flip these established big-leaguers for value.

Julien, who was our No. 5 prospect at this time last year, is set up to primarily man second base from the outset of 2024. Last year's No. 2 prospect Lewis is also an option there going forward if it's deemed to be his best spot defensively. Current No. 2 prospect Brooks Lee could force the issue by pushing for playing time at third, if he himself doesn't end up second. Martin played more at second than anywhere else for St. Paul last year, and is also pretty much MLB-ready. Further down the line, you've got a pair of promising prospects in Tanner Schobel and Luke Keaschall, who both profile best at second base.

Share Your Thoughts
I know we have a lot of hardcore prospect followers in our audience and I've really enjoyed reading all the comments throughout this series. Now that you take a step back and look at these rankings, what are your thoughts? Who are we underrating, or overrating? How do you feel about the health of Minnesota's system as a whole?


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Posted

Adding to the 2B pipeline, I am looking forward to see Dameury Peña’s progress. Can he make it to low A at 18? He will,likely be in complex ball.

Arraez had splits of 348/433/400 in the DsL at 17 and moved to the GCL the next year. Peña dwarfed those numbers with splits of 382/453/496. 

Arraez didn’t make prospects lists. He just hit everywhere he played. Will it be the same for Peña?

Posted

Appreciate the work you guys do with the minor leagues.  Have one comment and a question, regarding your recap.

How can the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues not break into your Top 20?  It isn't like he struck out 50% of the time and hit a buck fifty.  Have never seen him play, but someone that good defensively at the game's most important position is one heck of a prospect in my book.

My question relates to Prielipp.  Your prior report talked about his not having TJ surgery, rather something I assume was less serious.  Like Canterino, is Prielipp on track to be throwing in spring training?  If he is throwing, are there any reports of what he looks like?

Posted

Why am I more excited about this list than what is just on the paper? Because we already have so much young talent on the varsity team.  Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Varland, maybe add Kiriloff- these are all legit young players that could be mainstays in our lineup for years.  Thus, we really don’t need as many of the prospects to hit in the near to mid term.  Assuming CC is good for several more years, we only are really taking about having to add one or two outfielders (depending on Buxton) and maybe one  infielder (and we have an excellent one of those knocking on the door) over the next couple of years if need be.  We have three young starters to pair with Lopez too.  And a premier closer.

This bevy of existing young MLB talent actually makes our prospect list stronger than it seems. 

Posted
1 hour ago, roger said:

How can the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues not break into your Top 20? 

Agreed. Miller is in my top 10. His defensive ratings at SS were well ahead of every SS in the minors in 2023, at any level. At a minimum, that will get him to the majors IMO as great defensive SS's aren't easy to find, at least for a bench position. It's not like he is old at 21 years of age. His bat really improved in the 2nd half of last year. If that continues to improve, his ceiling is high.

Posted
1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed. Miller is in my top 10. His defensive ratings at SS were well ahead of every SS in the minors in 2023, at any level. At a minimum, that will get him to the majors IMO as great defensive SS's aren't easy to find, at least for a bench position. It's not like he is old at 21 years of age. His bat really improved in the 2nd half of last year. If that continues to improve, his ceiling is high.

A lot of talk about Miller on BA’s Twins prospect podcast. His glove is so good that he will get a lot of time to develop the bat. 

Posted

A big thank you and shout out to everyone involved for the list and all the write ups. 

Since I've gone on at length about each guy on the list at some point, guess I need to just do an overall view.

1} Yes, the mid rankings are quite solid, especially with the kids that graduated last year. Of course, can't every team say that? They can, but to have THREE bats like Lewis, Julien, and Wallner all at the same time? And while the jury is out a little bit still, the strong armed Varland is also a recent graduate. So I'm very happy with a mid ranking right now.

2} This season, I'd be very surprised if both Martin and Lee don't graduate. I also think Canterino is going to come close, at least. (He might not hit the IP mark until next year.)The only way it doesn't happen if they get hurt, or the ML roster is blessed to be almost entirely healthy for the whole of the season. Yeah...right!  LOL.

3} I love the overall depth in the system, and the past 3 drafts have all been really good. While most of 2021 has been moved in trades to acquire additional talent for the Twins, those prospects still reflect on the quality of the system. Further, there's still a few guys in that draft that might turn out, including a couple of catchers, (Winkel and Cardenas) and arms like Festa, Nowlin, and Ohl. I think this upcoming season is really big for a couple top prospects like Emma, the recently acquired Gonzalez, Rosario, and the bulk of the arms drafted the past couple of years.

Do we wish we had moved Emma for an arm after this season? Or does he look like the future star he teases at being? Sort of the same for Gonzalez. Rosario has made vast improvement really quickly. Can he keep it up this year as well? Canterino, Raya, Festa, Ohl, Nowlin, Jones, Matthews, Cullpepper, Morris, etc, are all looking at high A and above to begin the season, and SHOULD all be at AA or higher if they are for real, as their early returns suggest. And a couple of those guys might reach MLB this season, or finish in AAA, one step away for 2025.

I'm honestly almost as excited for the milb season this year as I am for the Twins. There's at least a decent shot the Twins have a number of arms in the top 150, with a couple maybe sneaking in to the top 100 by this time next year.

Posted
4 hours ago, roger said:

Appreciate the work you guys do with the minor leagues.  Have one comment and a question, regarding your recap.

How can the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues not break into your Top 20?  It isn't like he struck out 50% of the time and hit a buck fifty.  Have never seen him play, but someone that good defensively at the game's most important position is one heck of a prospect in my book.

My question relates to Prielipp.  Your prior report talked about his not having TJ surgery, rather something I assume was less serious.  Like Canterino, is Prielipp on track to be throwing in spring training?  If he is throwing, are there any reports of what he looks like?

I feel you Roger. The defense is for real. Its hard not to put him in a top 20. And maybe he belongs there. But I have to say, there's enough insecurity about his bat still that I think I can understand him missing it. (Also, there's some really good players in front of him).

He had some stretches last year where his offense looked like it was coming along. If he raises his game another notch in 2024, and can be a little more consistent, I think he's easily in the top 20 next season. I've really been wondering if he doesn't repeat in Cedar Rapids to begin the year. 

Posted
3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed. Miller is in my top 10. His defensive ratings at SS were well ahead of every SS in the minors in 2023, at any level. At a minimum, that will get him to the majors IMO as great defensive SS's aren't easy to find, at least for a bench position. It's not like he is old at 21 years of age. His bat really improved in the 2nd half of last year. If that continues to improve, his ceiling is high.

I second that motion, Miller's defensive prowess at a premium position is enough as long as he can get OB enough w/o striking out a lot.

Posted
7 hours ago, roger said:

Appreciate the work you guys do with the minor leagues.  Have one comment and a question, regarding your recap.

How can the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues not break into your Top 20?  It isn't like he struck out 50% of the time and hit a buck fifty.  Have never seen him play, but someone that good defensively at the game's most important position is one heck of a prospect in my book.

My question relates to Prielipp.  Your prior report talked about his not having TJ surgery, rather something I assume was less serious.  Like Canterino, is Prielipp on track to be throwing in spring training?  If he is throwing, are there any reports of what he looks like?

Roger... We need to have breakfast for lunch again sometime... I love your love for the Wisconsin players, and I don't blame you. 

I ranked Noah MIller #27 solely because of his defense. There just haven't been numbers so far offensively. That isn't to say that it won't develop and he won't continue to develop. I don't worry much about Florida State numbers. He had some decent stretches during the year, and I like the Brian Dinkelman generally kept him in the leadoff spot to keep getting him at bats. Definitely no reason to give up on him, and he's going to get every opportunity. The question becomes, if he continues to be a .210 hitter with an OPS around .600 three years  from now, would an MLB team play him at shortstop for 140 games in a season and bat him ninth? He does a lot of things well, and no one questions his work ethic... but until there is some semblance of consistent, decent offense, I just can't move him too much higher. And I love watching highlights of him playing defense. 

As for Prielipp, I'll send out some feelers. I know he's been in Ft. Myers working out and running and participating in a lot, but I have not yet seen him pitch a bullpen or off a mound. I wish I had 24/7 access to video from there though. He very well might be. 

Posted

There is a big red flag in the rankings in my opinion, at least with pitching prospects. 

There are essentially 3 groups of pitchers in your top 20 rankings and they all have the same problem.  They simply are not pitching at the volume of a MLB starting pitcher.  I know this was brought up in some of the profiles, but Marco Raya averaged 2.85 innings/start in 22 starts in 2023.  David Festa averaged 4.18 innings/start.  And those are the elite pitching prospects of the organization.

The middle group, a collection of mid-round college pitchers did not pitch many more innings/start with Cory Lewis averaging 4.60 innings/start, CJ Culpepper 4.10 innings/start and Zebby Matthews 4.77.  

These pitchers are barely getting through 2 times through the order so the limited usage is essentially inflating (or for pitchers I guess deflating) their statistical performance.  

Then there is the third group of top-20 prospects:  Canterino and Prielipp, two highly touted college pitchers with amazing stuff that never appears on the mound.  Canterino was drafted in 2019 and has pitched 85 total professional innings or 17 innings per year.  Prielips has pitched a total of 34.2 innings in NCAA and professional baseball since 2020, 8.7 innings per year.  I get why they are ranked.  I want them to do well just that the odds of success are so limited based on this start to their careers.   

The other pitchers on the list are Charlie Soto, highly ranked because of his draft position and age before he has even debut in professional baseball and Woods-Richardson, a pitcher that is probably going the other way on prospect lists, a guy who was a young phenom but just never got over the hump to make it for extended time in the majors. 

What this list tells me is that the Twins are going to have to continue the trend of trading positional prospects for starting pitching if they want to continue to compete and hope that they can have a bit of luck. 

The other point I would make is that if you look at last year's starting rotation all of the pitchers that had minor league experience (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober) all averaged more than 5 innings per minor league start.  I get the concern over injuries, but arm injuries happen.  We have had a lot of them in the system despite being very cautious.

Posted

I have really enjoyed reading all these write-ups and comments. It will make me more tuned in to the minors and follow some of these guys as they make their way towards the big leagues. Thanks, everyone!

Posted
2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Roger... We need to have breakfast for lunch again sometime... I love your love for the Wisconsin players, and I don't blame you. 

I ranked Noah MIller #27 solely because of his defense. There just haven't been numbers so far offensively. That isn't to say that it won't develop and he won't continue to develop. I don't worry much about Florida State numbers. He had some decent stretches during the year, and I like the Brian Dinkelman generally kept him in the leadoff spot to keep getting him at bats. Definitely no reason to give up on him, and he's going to get every opportunity. The question becomes, if he continues to be a .210 hitter with an OPS around .600 three years  from now, would an MLB team play him at shortstop for 140 games in a season and bat him ninth? He does a lot of things well, and no one questions his work ethic... but until there is some semblance of consistent, decent offense, I just can't move him too much higher. And I love watching highlights of him playing defense. 

As for Prielipp, I'll send out some feelers. I know he's been in Ft. Myers working out and running and participating in a lot, but I have not yet seen him pitch a bullpen or off a mound. I wish I had 24/7 access to video from there though. He very well might be. 

Will be back in Minny by mid-March.  Email me when you are in town.  Would love to meet for either.

Posted

A thought comes to mind as I look not only at this list, but various other top 30-40 types of rankings.

I felt the Twins system was heavy in the high minors and heavy in the low to begin 2023. Not just top prospects, but OK prospects. 

St Paul had Varland and Wallner, and Julien, and potentially Martin, and a solid catcher prospect in Camargo, and a couple of potential arms in Sands, Winder, and Headrick. Not great, but not bad. And maybe Helman who would get his shot.

I thought AA Wichita and A+ Cedar Rapids would struggle somewhat. Just too many young prospects plus a couple guys traded away who might have made a difference.

Well, Cedar Rapids pretty much blew everyone away with a young roster that probably shouldn't have done that. 

But where do those kids go from here? Emma is a top 3 prospect in the system, but he's going to AA at what 21yo? Rosario will be 21, right? And coming off an amazing season and a great AFL, isn't he destined for AA at this time? It would be kinda rare to have a couple top OF prospects at 20-21-ish at AA right?

Then we start to add Keaschall,  who might surpass Schobel soon on the prospect list. And then we come to the pitchers. 

To be fair, Wichita had a couple of guys pushed a little too early like Adams. Old enough, talented enough, to just push them and see what happens. Probably, begin 2024 there. But Jones, Matthews and others are knocking on the door. And they should be. It's time for Nowlin to find his control enough to state he's a viable ML SP and move to AAA soon. OR, be moved to the pen where he might dominate. 

There's more than a handful of prospects that sit at the margins right now that are capable of making a difference at the ML level really soon. 2024 will help determine how many will take the next step.

Posted

Last year was an awesome year for prospects jumping to the big leagues. Gives me hope for sustainable success for the future. 

With the new rule changes last particularly to base stealing. I would love to see speed and OBP emphasized more than power. 

Posted
19 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Adding to the 2B pipeline, I am looking forward to see Dameury Peña’s progress. Can he make it to low A at 18? He will,likely be in complex ball.

Arraez had splits of 348/433/400 in the DsL at 17 and moved to the GCL the next year. Peña dwarfed those numbers with splits of 382/453/496. 

Arraez didn’t make prospects lists. He just hit everywhere he played. Will it be the same for Peña?

What a tease...but damn those stats from the DSL are amazing.

Thanks for putting another prospect on my radar, which at my age has intermittent glitches. 😁

Posted
7 hours ago, arby58 said:

One ranking that wasn't mentioned was ESPN. They rank the Twins farm system as number 9. That is higher than those discussed here.

So that averages out to: 9, 17, 14 and 15: 13.75

Or if you the skating scoring system from the 80s, throw out the high and the low (usually US & USSR judges), you get 14.5.

Either way just a tad bit above league average

Posted

 

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

They can, but to have THREE bats like Lewis, Julien, and Lewis all at the same time?

@DocBauer Did we replicate Royce, which if we did thank you, thank you, thank you. 😁

Great points.

I've been bored this off season, not so much by the lack of movement by the Twins but because there wasn't a lot of movement needed.

You can never have enough quality SP in this league, but I am glad we didn't regress to our old format of scrap heap pitchers.

I want to see these young Guns.

Also, can someone answer a question for me?

I understand that hitting is a difficult task, but fielding?  How can a player as talented as you have to be to make it to the Big Show, not be competent at fielding?

I understand that when they enter the minors at Low A ball, they may not be average, but you have Low A, High A, AA and AAA to teach them to be competent.

Posted
2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

 

@DocBauer Did we replicate Royce, which if we did thank you, thank you, thank you. 😁

Great points.

I've been bored this off season, not so much by the lack of movement by the Twins but because there wasn't a lot of movement needed.

You can never have enough quality SP in this league, but I am glad we didn't regress to our old format of scrap heap pitchers.

I want to see these young Guns.

Also, can someone answer a question for me?

I understand that hitting is a difficult task, but fielding?  How can a player as talented as you have to be to make it to the Big Show, not be competent at fielding?

I understand that when they enter the minors at Low A ball, they may not be average, but you have Low A, High A, AA and AAA to teach them to be competent.

Thanks for catching my error!

Fixed!

Posted
On 2/14/2024 at 1:24 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Why am I more excited about this list than what is just on the paper? Because we already have so much young talent on the varsity team.  Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, Julien, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Varland, maybe add Kiriloff- these are all legit young players that could be mainstays in our lineup for years.  Thus, we really don’t need as many of the prospects to hit in the near to mid term.  Assuming CC is good for several more years, we only are really taking about having to add one or two outfielders (depending on Buxton) and maybe one  infielder (and we have an excellent one of those knocking on the door) over the next couple of years if need be.  We have three young starters to pair with Lopez too.  And a premier closer.

This bevy of existing young MLB talent actually makes our prospect list stronger than it seems. 

It's a good point - and part of why the Twins were willing to part with some prospect talent in recent years to acquire MLB players. The Gray trade worked out, Mahle and Jorge Lopez not so much. That said, there are only 26 and 40 spots, so moving some on occasion, even if it doesn't work out, is ok when you have a decent pipeline.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
On 2/14/2024 at 1:13 PM, roger said:

Appreciate the work you guys do with the minor leagues.  Have one comment and a question, regarding your recap.

How can the best defensive shortstop in all the minor leagues not break into your Top 20?  It isn't like he struck out 50% of the time and hit a buck fifty.  Have never seen him play, but someone that good defensively at the game's most important position is one heck of a prospect in my book.

My question relates to Prielipp.  Your prior report talked about his not having TJ surgery, rather something I assume was less serious.  Like Canterino, is Prielipp on track to be throwing in spring training?  If he is throwing, are there any reports of what he looks like?

Noah Miller is a fantastic defender, but defense alone isn't going to get you very high on these lists.

I will say I had him ranked at #20 in my submission, and there was definitely improvement as last season wore on with the bat (he finally put up an OPS above the league average the final 2 months), but he now needs to show he can sustain that improvement. He could be a quick riser during the coming season if he does, especially if that happens with Wichita. The Texas League is a better hitter environment than the Midwest League (average OPS about .050 points higher last season). 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Noah Miller is a fantastic defender, but defense alone isn't going to get you very high on these lists.

I will say I had him ranked at #20 in my submission, and there was definitely improvement as last season wore on with the bat (he finally put up an OPS above the league average the final 2 months), but he now needs to show he can sustain that improvement. He could be a quick riser during the coming season if he does, especially if that happens with Wichita. The Texas League is a better hitter environment than the Midwest League (average OPS about .050 points higher last season). 

Maybe elite defense at SS (or catcher) should get a player higher in these lists. 

One elite skill goes a long ways in getting a roster spot. Plenty of time will be given to build the rest.

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