Why the Prices Tend to Drop on Lingering Free Agents Late in MLB Offseason

[Theodore Tollefson]

The 2023-24 MLB offseason has been one of the slowest-moving in recent memory. Fans of almost every franchise had seen few signings before the New Year, and only recently have things begun to pick up momentum, as Spring Training begins this week. 

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

A slow-moving market isn’t unfamiliar to baseball fans, who are just two years removed from an offseason that included a 90-plus-day lockout. Nor is it the first offseason where top free agents expecting deals north of $100 million each don’t know where their Spring Training will begin.

The last time that the hot stove burned as slowly as this one was the 2018-19 offseason, when four out of the top five free agents per MLB Trade Rumors were unsigned at the start of Spring Training. 

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed their $300-million deals a couple of weeks into the Phillies’ and Padres’ camps. Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel both remained unsigned until the 2019 season was a third complete. 

That may not be the case for the big four names still out on the market, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery. But their markets have not moved much in the last month-plus.

While players of these four’s calibers are all still candidates to earn deals north of $100 million, it’s players who’ve been holding out for their biggest paydays at lower costs who will be getting hurt the most by the slow-moving market. The players in whom teams had the most proactive interest are gone, by now. So is much of the money teams budgeted to spend on their 2024 payrolls.

For example, Michael A. Taylor had a sturdy 2023 season with the Twins. He hit 21 home runs, stole 13 bases, and had a .720 OPS. Taylor has never had a season where he earned more than $4.5 million. His performance with the Twins this last season had experts projecting him to earn up to $10 million on a one-year deal, or to find a multi-year commitment somewhere. 

Taylor and Bellinger remain the only two everyday center fielders on the market. No matter what contracts they end up on, they’ll be vastly different. Bellinger still has some chance to get his massive payday of $200 million over eight or more seasons. Taylor, on the other hand, could still see his highest career earnings, but it may be just a dream to believe it’ll be eight digits.

Taylor is just one of 105 free agents remaining, per MLB Trade Rumors’s list. That’s a high number of men who don’t know where they’ll be starting their 2024 seasons in camp; some clearly will not end up receiving any deal at all. The level of anxiety this puts on players, especially those still wanting another year to salvage their careers, is considerable. This is why some guys we think of as obviously deserving of a big-league deal take a non-guaranteed minor-league one instead. 

Taylor has not shown any signs of wanting to retire if a deal cannot be made, but just last offseason, MLB vet Chad Pinder went unsigned and did retire. Pinder spent his entire seven-year career with the Oakland Athletics and spent his playing time between the outfield, second and third base.

His versatility wasn’t in high demand, and the best offers he could work up were minor-league deals. Pinder was only entering his age-31 season last year. He ended up signing a non-roster deal with the Cincinnati Reds to start Spring Training, but he was cut on March 24 ahead of Opening Day. He then took on short stints with the Nationals and Braves and retired shortly after the Braves cut him on May 28. 

While Pinder was not seeking the highest amount of money in the world, he was an established veteran who had arguably earned himself at least a one-year deal in the $3-$5 million range. It just didn’t materialize.

Taylor will not be the Pinder of this offseason, but players still offering their services to teams could end up in the same boat. Names such as Kolten Wong, Brandon Crawford, and Nick Ahmed fit this sort of bill with their current markets and teams’ need for their positional depth.

Market dynamics ensure that overpays happen early in the winter, and underpays happen late. Players have just one career in which to maximize their earnings and their legacy, and the closer spring training draws, the more pressure teams are able to apply to them on that basis. Players and their families also have to wrestle with the stress of uncertainty about where they will go for spring training and where they'll live when the season begins.

Those are key reasons why we've seen the trend toward later signings, in general. Teams are making more rational decisions, and front offices like the Twins' feel that they can only justify getting involved in free agency once time takes the yeast out of market rates. We'll see how this particular version wraps up, but while the remaining Boras stars are still in line for big money, the deflation that hits free agency as January drags along and February dawns remains a real and unavoidable phenomenon.

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[Vanimal46]

Is it a surprise to anyone that the top 4 FAs are all Boras clients? Perhaps Boras needs to change up his playbook and not wait until the last possible second to secure deals for his clients. 

[mikelink45]

Boras has so much influence on mlb  I still don't think he'll lose from these high-enders, but baseball has to figure out how to really deal with him on occasionally. Occasionally I may have to let one of these stars just sit out of here. Boris isn't going to change as long as he succeeds in the end and the players will continue to sign up with them if they see here. Their teammates getting good strong contracts.

[Dman]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Is it a surprise to anyone that the top 4 FAs are all Boras clients? Perhaps Boras needs to change up his playbook and not wait until the last possible second to secure deals for his clients. 

I think part of the reason some of theses lessor guys (options) have to wait is because the teams that don't get those top 4 guys might up the anti to a higher level to get some kind of replacement for losing on the player they wanted.  MAT seems like he could be in that boat.  One of the teams that wanted and doesn't get Bellinger could flip to MAT.  Hard to say, but I do agree that once players have waited this long prices generally go down not up.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Is it a surprise to anyone that the top 4 FAs are all Boras clients? Perhaps Boras needs to change up his playbook and not wait until the last possible second to secure deals for his clients. 

Boras auctions the players off one at a time. This allows him to maximize the dollars spent by not undercutting the top free agent with a different player who is a better value.

Dutch auction - Wikipedia

Quote

The speed of the clock used in the Dutch auction has a significant effect on final prices and the auctioneers revenue.[14] A fast Dutch clock has been found to yield significantly lower bids and seller revenue when benchmarked against a first-price sealed-bid auction. On the contrary, a sufficiently slow Dutch clock is found to be more profitable than a first-price auction.

 

[Gamblerssoftball]

I've always been reluctant to signing pitchers to long term contracts, regardless of their talent. They are so risky, just one pitch away from needing Tommy John surgery. But, I have a question. Are teams able to purchase insurance for this type of thing? Is it even available? If so,is it practical or too costly? 🤔 

[DJL44]

Eventually the teams that value marginal wins at $10M run out of roster spots. Then you have to go to the mid-market teams that value marginal wins at $7-8M. Finally, you end up with teams that put little value on marginal wins because they aren't trying to win this year but are willing to sign free agents to 1-year deals hoping they can be moved for future value at the trade deadline.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if there will be a wave of signings for the lower tier free agents as teams open up roster spots with the 60 day IL moves. 

[Jocko87]

I wonder why the Mets aren't big players this year. Seems like some values they could jump all over. 😂

[gman]

The higher the top off season contract signing the more unsigned free agents there are. Seems like the players may want to think about whether or not they want all the money going to just a handful of players. Just like the teams may want to think about just a handful of teams getting all the top free agents.

[Guest]

Sooner or later agents will realize the amount of revenue MLB generates isn't what it used to be, and then they'll adjust strategy.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Eventually the teams that value marginal wins at $10M run out of roster spots. Then you have to go to the mid-market teams that value marginal wins at $7-8M. Finally, you end up with teams that put little value on marginal wins because they aren't trying to win this year but are willing to sign free agents to 1-year deals hoping they can be moved for future value at the trade deadline.

Exactly.

Let's just take Bellinger and Taylor as an example. NOT saying this is true, just an example. Let's say there's 3 teams entering this past offseason really needing help at CF and don't have an in house solution. Well, 2 guys are gone. The big name is out there, but not affordable for various reasons to some of those needy teams. So for whatever reason, one guy, Taylor, is stuck in a game of musical FA without a chair. 

Teams have their 40 man set, have an idea of what their team might look like, have spent most of their budget, so guys slip through the cracks and can be had for a budget price. That's part of the reason the Twins tend to hold out a little longer than most teams. 

It's going to be crazier next season with all the fluidity of TV deals and more expirations. As much as we talk about the Twins situation, the Rangers were supposed to get $85M per until the year 2032 I believe. That's a lot of the reason they went on a big spending spree the last couple of years. And now their deal expires next year as well. Wow! Next offseason is going to be nuts!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Sooner or later agents will realize the amount of revenue MLB generates isn't what it used to be, and then they'll adjust strategy.

It isn't what it used to be, it's considerably more.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

So for whatever reason, one guy, Taylor, is stuck in a game of musical FA without a chair. 

Taylor is going to have to decide whether he wants to be a starter for (for example) the Pirates or a backup for (example) the Twins. The money will probably be the same.

[CRF]

I'd like to see Montgomery or Snell linger long enough, that Boras gives his old buddy Falvey a call.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Sooner or later agents will realize the amount of revenue MLB generates isn't what it used to be, and then they'll adjust strategy.

An MLB player just signed for $700 million. I think the agents have a pretty good grasp on the financials of the league.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

I've always been reluctant to signing pitchers to long term contracts, regardless of their talent. They are so risky, just one pitch away from needing Tommy John surgery. But, I have a question. Are teams able to purchase insurance for this type of thing? Is it even available? If so,is it practical or too costly? 🤔 

Yes, teams are able to get insurance on players, and they almost always do. If they don't it's almost always a "point and laugh" situation when a player gets hurt and it comes out that the team didn't have insurance on them. It's standard operating procedure at this point. But depending on the player and their situation it can become a prohibitive thing. There were rumors about the Giants and Mets struggling to get insurance for Correa and that maybe playing a role in him ending up back here.

[Eris]

With regards to Bellinger, do we know that Boras is the reason he is unsigned. It is possible that clubs offered a 2-3 year contract and Bellinger regected these. 

Similar with Taylor, do we know he hasn’t received an offer. 

Obviously neither Taylor or Bellinger received an offer to their liking. 

[TwinkieFan4life]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

An MLB player just signed for $700 million. I think the agents have a pretty good grasp on the financials of the league.

When take into consideration the present value of money deferred 10-20 years into the future, the value of this contract isn't what it seems.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

When take into consideration the present value of money deferred 10-20 years into the future, the value of this contract isn't what it seems.

No, but it's still worth in the 450 mil range and his deferments may allow him to save a bunch in tax payments. The point is the agents know what they're doing, and guys are still getting massive deals.

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I wonder if there will be a wave of signings for the lower tier free agents as teams open up roster spots with the 60 day IL moves. 

That's an interesting thought   , a tidal wave of signing , I can see it ...

Good call  ...

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

I'd like to see Montgomery or Snell linger long enough, that Boras gives his old buddy Falvey a call.

I like this idea very much , sign for 1 year and let them go back to free agency and if they haven't had a qualifing offer then we get a draft pick after they refuse Twins  qualify offer  ..

[specialiststeve]

Supply and demand... supply outweighs demand so the wait begins. Teams will keep tabs on players and players will lower their demands as time gets closer... 

Hopefully the Twins can find a bargain that helps them. 

[old nurse]

Citing an unsigned player from last year who was granted free agency rather than arbitration as a similarity to Taylor’s situation sites a new mark for baffling. Oakland did not want to pay another almost 3 mil for a player who’s OPS+ was closer to a president’s age than league average shouldn’t come as a shocker 

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, Eris said:

With regards to Bellinger, do we know that Boras is the reason he is unsigned. It is possible that clubs offered a 2-3 year contract and Bellinger regected these. 

Similar with Taylor, do we know he hasn’t received an offer. 

Obviously neither Taylor or Bellinger received an offer to their liking. 

If I were a GM, I would pass on Bellinger unless his price was surprisingly reasonable.  The guy is so inconsistent.

[Trov]

I am sure Taylor could have signed with a team by now, but my guess he is trying to hold for more or a more particular type team.  In terms of the 4 big names, I could be wrong but I believe all have the same agent, Boras, who is known to hold strong late.  I think each are seeking contracts longer and at higher value than they should get.  

Chapman is 30 years old, and his second half last year was just not good.  If you take away his April his season was terrible.  His July was okay, but outside those two months his OPS was around .600, not a superstar.  He is a good defender, but how much should you pay for a good defending 3rd baseman that is subpar offense and on wrong side of 30?  He may not have another all-star year in him.

Bellinger is hoping to cash in on his make good year last year.  He will be 29 most of this season, he had same bWAR as Chapman, 4.4 but his is from offense not defense.  Several years ago he was MVP at 23 then injuries set in and he had several bad years.  He got the 1 year deal from Cubs and did well.  However, he is seeking an MVP type contract, and I doubt many teams willing to give him more than 3 to 4 years.  He has not shown he warrants a deal that goes into his last 30's.  Even this last year he had 2 great months, 2 good months and 2 bad months.  

For Snell he is 31, has been above average pitcher most of his career, but not been cy young level most of his career.  His FIP was 3.44(also his career FIP) while ERA was 2.25, this suggest some luck.  He has only had 2 seasons where he pitched more than 129 innings, last year and 2018, both his best seasons and cy young years.  He can be a great pitcher, but his health has been an issue, and he is aging.  If he is seeking anything more than 4 years, he will be waiting. 

Montgomery also 31 and also left handed like Snell. Unlike Snell he has never even been in top 10 for cy young award and mainly is a good but not great starter.  He is seeking ace type money, like Snell, but really outside of his run in Texas after the trade, but his career is one of a good pitcher but never a number 1 type guy.  Personally, he would be the one between him and Snell I would rather go after, just because he has been consistent in his career, pitching most of the season with consistent numbers overall.  Snell has much more upside, but he also has been injured a ton. 

That is why none of them have signed because they are seeking mega star contracts but all have big questions about long term deals being a huge risk. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Taylor is going to have to decide whether he wants to be a starter for (for example) the Pirates or a backup for (example) the Twins. The money will probably be the same.

Same with Clevinger, as an aside, since I saw Colorado, Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates as his best options……..I get Boston but the others don’t paint a rosie ‘24!

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I like this idea very much , sign for 1 year and let them go back to free agency and if they haven't had a qualifing offer then we get a draft pick after they refuse Twins  qualify offer  ..

The Team would have to pay Scherzer/Verlander/deGrom $$ for a one year deal……..that’s $40-$50M/yr. Makes no sense. With injury history Snell has, it doesn’t even make sense for him……….he may paint himself in a corner going forward with injuries in ‘24 on a one year deal.

No big $$ FA wants to sign, nor should consider, a one year deal. Could do it similar to Correa’s deal but all the power is in the ”player options” in that case.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I wonder why the Mets aren't big players this year. Seems like some values they could jump all over. 😂

Still paying Scherzer & Verlander is part of their issue for ‘24. They need to spend on Alonso. ………plenty of $$$ so I expect things will change after ‘24 as new GM gets settled.

[Jocko87]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Still paying Scherzer & Verlander is part of their issue for ‘24. They need to spend on Alonso. ………plenty of $$$ so I expect things will change after ‘24 as new GM gets settled.

The answer to the mystery is Scott Boras repping everyone left. I'm still waiting for one of his clients to sign there. Someday we will get a tell-all book.