The Last Two Moves The Twins Should Make

[DocBauer]

I like most of the roster as is. I like the depth of the pen and the possibilities very much. I'm mostly sold on the player/lineup situation as long as Santana is a part time player. I also like the front end of the rotation and some of the depth potential. But I believe there are 2 moves the Twins could still make that might take them over the top.

1] Add 1 more RH OF. Various FA are sitting there wondering where they are going to play next season. There are multiple options that should be inexpensive at this point on a 1yr. I'm only going to address 2, but there are other options. Taylor knows the team and brings defense, speed, and some pop. He would be in the role he was supposed to be in 2023, and provides more Buxton CF insurance. Probably won't hit as many HR, but with a better back condition, might steal more bases. Duvall has almost neutral splits. Who cares? He's still, probably, a better RH bat against LHP than Kepler or Wallner. 

2] Call Miami about Cabrera. Forget about spending TOP prospect capital for Luzardo. The FO doesn't want to do that, and I can't really disagree with that. Miami, like Seattle, has arm depth. They also have a new GM from Tampa who understands grabbing value to build a team. And the Twins have enough good quality depth in the organization to make this happen. 

Miami has the choice of adding some combination of immediate or close to ML talent in the "hasn't quite yet proven it but has the ability" in Larnach. There's also the "probably ready" catching of the powerful and reportedly solid defense Camargo. (They're looking for catching and doubt they want Vazquez's contract). But they are also, probably, looking at future value. Larnach and Camargo are financially cheap, if interested. But outside the Twins top 5 or 6, they could trade the recently acquired Gonzalez, Severino...close to MLB...Rosario. J Rodriquez, Jones, Matthews, Culpepper, DeAndre, Schobel, Keaschall. etc, a nice collection of top 15 talent and even a solid ML ready player or two, depending on their needs and wants. And the Twins can also throw in the QO offer draft pick they got for Gray.

Basically, the Marlins, and their new GM, get their choice of a couple ML players to help now who are young and have potential, and/or a collection of 2-4 solid top 10-20 prospects, and maybe the QO draft pick thrown in. 

Maybe they'd even be interested in DeScalfini as a 5th SP option??

And the Twins get a cost controlled  27yo with no options, if I'm correct, who has great stuff and a really good 2022 half season and a mediocre 2023. The potential is sky high. The floor isn't better than a back end starter. But that's a risk I'd take all day long were I the FO. 

I NEVER saw a BIG DEAL for a SP unless they could pull another rabbit out of the hat as they did with Odorizzi or Gray or Lopez. And they couldn't do it a 4th time.

But I've said and thought for months they COULD...and still can...grab someone like Cabrera to fit in to current payroll with upside that would COST talent, without mortgaging the future of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the system.

Cabrera is a risk, no doubt. But he's been a risk that makes sense to me. What say you? 

[jorgenswest]

Absolutely go after Cabrera. It might take Emmanuel Rodriguez though. The Marlins have been rumored to trade a starter and they must be getting calls from many teams. They want an upgrade of Berti at SS and the Twins aren’t a fit without trading Lee. They really aren’t a fit at catcher either short of Jeffers. I wouldn't trade either in a Cabrera deal. The Brewers might be the best fit if they want Cabrera or Rogers with Willy Adames as the headliner in return. They also have a better catching prospect to offer in Quero if the Marlins prefer. 

As for right handed bat, I hope they don’t add another decline phase player that helps in a short side platoon. I would rather take a risk of a younger player with upside that has struggled. Offer Gordon or Larnach in a parallel trade for someone like Jo Adell or Jake Meyers.

[Otaknam]

I am not fond of pitchers with control problems, regardless of their stuff. A quick search of Cabrera’s career stats shows he walks almost 6/9 innings and his 2023 WHIP was 1.44, just slightly higher than his career average. He averages about 2 strikeouts to one walk, so control issue is a big concern. A straight up trade for Larnach with one other 10-25 level prospect makes sense to me. 

[terrydactyls]

If you are willing to trade "their choice of a couple ML players who are young and have potential and/or a collection of 2-4 solid top 10-20 prospects, and maybe the QO draft pick thrown in" for one pitcher, I would aim for Luzardo rather than Cabrera.  Your trade is a six or seven players for one player trade and should have a bigger return than just Cabrera.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I really think we need another arm.   In reality we have room for 1 more player, 2 if my biggest concern comes to fruition and Desclafani is put on the 60 day and may be done for the year.  

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If you are willing to trade "their choice of a couple ML players who are young and have potential and/or a collection of 2-4 solid top 10-20 prospects, and maybe the QO draft pick thrown in" for one pitcher, I would aim for Luzardo rather than Cabrera.  Your trade is a six or seven players for one player trade and should have a bigger return than just Cabrera.

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear.

Miami would receive approximately 4 total players, possibly 3, and possibly the QO draft pick.

They would have the choice between prospects in the 10-20 range, OR, a couple prospects and add ML ready talent such as Larnach, Camargo, and Severino, who is pretty close. So prospects, or a mixed bag of ML ready and prospects. But not 6 or 7 total players.

[JD-TWINS]

43 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear.

Miami would receive approximately 4 total players, possibly 3, and possibly the QO draft pick.

They would have the choice between prospects in the 10-20 range, OR, a couple prospects and add ML ready talent such as Larnach, Camargo, and Severino, who is pretty close. So prospects, or a mixed bag of ML ready and prospects. But not 6 or 7 total players.

So, if they need a SS I would consider offering the following for Luzardo.

Martin & Gordon as a CF platoon and SS depth as well. Potentially, they could then move Jazz Chisholm to SS to open CF for the two acquired in the trade. Larnach as a LF & DH candidate. EITHER Vazquez (with $4M from Twins) OR Camargo as the Catcher they want. The late ‘24 first round compensatory draft pick for Gray. DeSclafani, as an innings eating option to help displace Luzardo’s lost innings.

6 guys…….(their choice at Catcher between youth or veteran) Martin/Gordon are decent Left/Right option in CF and/or RF. Larnach. A first round pick and an additional veteran arm for your staff. Twins give up the $8M to help cover DeSclafani’s salary.

Giving the Marlins their choice of 2 Prospects and just crossing out the untouchables “Top 10” maybe that’s received better?

Any 3 from the “veteran list”, Larnach - Miranda - Gordon - Sands - Headrick - Winder -  DeSclafani (with $8M) - Vazquez (with $4M). With one of available prospects of Martin or Camargo. Then 1 of the #10 - #20 prospects, Marlins choice. Compensatory pick for Gray.

[JD-TWINS]

If there’s a trade for pitching and either or both of Gordon/Martin gets moved. ………Adam Duvall really makes sense!

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear.

Miami would receive approximately 4 total players, possibly 3, and possibly the QO draft pick.

They would have the choice between prospects in the 10-20 range, OR, a couple prospects and add ML ready talent such as Larnach, Camargo, and Severino, who is pretty close. So prospects, or a mixed bag of ML ready and prospects. But not 6 or 7 total players.

I would be open to a trade for six or seven players for Luzardo.

[Ryan_K]

As a now Marlins local fan and resident there is 0 chance we consider those trades. Cabrera does walk a lot but also elite strike outs and grounders. For him I'd want Martin, comp pick, festa, and twins comp b pick

 

Luzardo starts with Royce and Festa, if Royce is untouchable then maybe Braxton another LHP we have for Lee Martin Rodriguez maybe we toss in a set up arm to even things out. 

 

Twins don't have a playoff rotation right now and there are many teams looking for controllable SP this is the Marlins price

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Ryan_K said:

As a now Marlins local fan and resident there is 0 chance we consider those trades. Cabrera does walk a lot but also elite strike outs and grounders. For him I'd want Martin, comp pick, festa, and twins comp b pick

 

Luzardo starts with Royce and Festa, if Royce is untouchable then maybe Braxton another LHP we have for Lee Martin Rodriguez maybe we toss in a set up arm to even things out. 

 

Twins don't have a playoff rotation right now and there are many teams looking for controllable SP this is the Marlins price

Welcome to Twins Daily.

I agree with you. I would not agree to sending away Cabrera or Luzardo for quantity. The Marlins may not make any moves. I don't think the Twins are considering any trades that include their top young players or prospects, which includes Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Festa, Raya, Jenkins, and maybe a few others. 

An advantage the Twins have is their position in the AL Central and the depth of controllable starters (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack). Cabrera at his best fits in behind Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Cabrera as he has been is likely a relief pitcher. He isn't very dependable and is now out of options. Still, the talent is mesmerizing and I am not sure what Miami plans for him. They will continue to listen and want a good return though.

[ziggy]

At today's current value of starting pitching I think the Marlins and every other team wants 3 names on the "don't want to trade "  list.  Every trade proposal conjured up on this and other Twins fans sites only list players WE would be willing to trade. In my observations if it does not hurt, it's not going to happen. If it's going to hurt might as well go for Luzardo.

[SteveLV]

To the Marlins' folks, is there ANY chance they move Alcantara to avoid his salary and uncertain recovery?  Any rumblings along those lines?  I would love the Twins to play the long game and try to acquire him.....

[Ryan_K]

He's beloved fans come to a section called Sandy Beach. We could trade him but not like a salary dump like MLB trade values has him. He was durable did complete games which is so rare. We'd likely value him similar to what White Sox ask for Dylan Cease at his best he's top 10 SP, seeing what teams are paying reclamation projects if I said a price I'd get a lot of laugh emojis. 

[SteveLV]

Yep, Ryan, MLB trade values is way off.

On the other hand, he has a high salary, is not pitching until 2025, and any return from TJS is an uncertainty.

Obviously not available on a fire sale, but I would expect a lesser return than someone like Luzardo, no?

[Ryan_K]

2 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Yep, Ryan, MLB trade values is way off.

On the other hand, he has a high salary, is not pitching until 2025, and any return from TJS is an uncertainty.

Obviously not available on a fire sale, but I would expect a lesser return than someone like Luzardo, no?

yes, but Luzardo likely has an asking price what White Sox got for cris sale, Sandy has 3 years after this year avg less than 19mm so with injury but durable I see cease level ask

[Brandon]

Doc, we are definitely on the same page on needs.  I also agree with you on OF.  I think the Twins either resign Taylor or sign Duvall for the 4th OF slot.

As for the rotation, I can see the Twins signing Ryu to a 1-year deal.  The Twins don't want to spend too much and if he can be had for a base of around 8 - 10 million with incentives to get to 12-15 million based on innings pitched.  I don't see any other pitcher that the Twins would sign for the rotation.  They wanted him before and now they prefer a 1-year deal.  I think he represents the best of what is available on a 1-year deal.  

Remember for 2025, the Twins already have around 100 million committed for 8 players including 3 options.  (Farmer 6.6 million, and Jackson 3 million and Alcala (i think it's less than 2 million I can't remember)) the others include Correa 35 million, Buxton 15 million, Lopez 21 million, Paddack 7.55 million, Velazquez 10 million,  This will keep the Twins spending in check next season unless a World Series run with lots of home playoff games adds a little plus the new broadcasting deal does too then maybe the Team spends a little more.  but there is also 18 more players and a growing arbitration expense as Ober, Ryan, Jax, Jeffers a second time, and more go through arbitration)

[stringer bell]

35 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Remember for 2025, the Twins already have around 100 million committed for 8 players including 3 options.  (Farmer 6.6 million, and Jackson 3 million and Alcala (i think it's less than 2 million I can't remember)) the others include Correa 35 million, Buxton 15 million, Lopez 21 million, Paddack 7.55 million, Velazquez 10 million,  This will keep the Twins spending in check next season unless a World Series run with lots of home playoff games adds a little plus the new broadcasting deal does too then maybe the Team spends a little more.  but there is also 18 more players and a growing arbitration expense as Ober, Ryan, Jax, Jeffers a second time, and more go through arbitration)

The options to be picked up are either inexpensive or remote. I see less than 1% chance of Farmer's mutual option being picked up. Alcalá's is for minimal money and Jackson will be 37 next year, so I think picking up his option will be unlikely unless he's both good and durable this year.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Ryan_K said:

yes, but Luzardo likely has an asking price what White Sox got for cris sale, Sandy has 3 years after this year avg less than 19mm so with injury but durable I see cease level ask

Sold.

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The options to be picked up are either inexpensive or remote. I see less than 1% chance of Farmer's mutual option being picked up. Alcalá's is for minimal money and Jackson will be 37 next year, so I think picking up his option will be unlikely unless he's both good and durable this year.

removing minimal money from the roster will not make it an easier task to fill the roster on a dime.  One less player at a low cost is akin to the cost of a rookie plus maybe a million.  Farmer is a little different as there is an amount there.  I do think he could stay if he has a similar year, I think he will stay especially if there is less certainty regarding the market and the Twins will lose face if they let him go with him producing at that price.  so having an extra 10 million for 21 players making it 40-50 million instead of 18 players with 30-40 million is a difference but still a little tight.  The Twins would have some money maybe for bench options. 

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sold.

Unsure what you mean by sold.

Moncada was #2 ranked prospect by MLB.com at the time of the trade. They had Kopech ranked number 16. Basabe wasn’t globally ranked but was number8 in the Red Sox system and Diaz was 28th. The Twins couldn’t match that pairing with Jenkins and Lee. The Twins have nowhere near the prospect capital that The Red Sox have at the time. They also don’t need it,

6 hours ago, Ryan_K said:

yes, but Luzardo likely has an asking price what White Sox got for cris sale, Sandy has 3 years after this year avg less than 19mm so with injury but durable I see cease level ask

We can dismiss BTV but they have Sale’s trade value in 2016 about twice that of Luzardo. If that is the Marlin’s asking price they are wasting their time taking calls. No one is going to offer the historic prospect package the Red Sox sent for Sale.

[nicksaviking]

55 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Unsure what you mean by sold.

Moncada was #2 ranked prospect by MLB.com at the time of the trade. They had Kopech ranked number 16. Basabe wasn’t globally ranked but was number8 in the Red Sox system and Diaz was 28th. The Twins couldn’t match that pairing with Jenkins and Lee. The Twins have nowhere near the prospect capital that The Red Sox have at the time. They also don’t need it,

We can dismiss BTV but they have Sale’s trade value in 2016 about twice that of Luzardo. If that is the Marlin’s asking price they are wasting their time taking calls. No one is going to offer the historic prospect package the Red Sox sent for Sale.

I am excited for the Twins prospects, but I'm not holding on to all of them when the team could use them to get top of the rotation pitching.

And you're right about Sale's value. He was considered one of, if not the best pitcher in the league. I'd give up the commensurate prospects to get a pitcher to win in the playoffs.

[jorgenswest]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I am excited for the Twins prospects, but I'm not holding on to all of them when the team could use them to get top of the rotation pitching.

And you're right about Sale's value. He was considered one of, if not the best pitcher in the league. I'd give up the commensurate prospects to get a pitcher to win in the playoffs.

I would also. They shouldn’t have any untouchable prospects.

[tony&rodney]

All prospects, and to some extent all players with less than one full proven year of MLB experience, are less than a sure thing. Where, exactly does the front office draw the line? Where does anyone? Consider that if there are not untouchables (or any such related term), the Twins will discuss trading all of Jenkins, Lee, EmRod, Raya, Festa, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and Varland among a host of other names of players not established. I believe all of those names were in various conversations.

Considering that Jenkins carries a higher rating than Lewis, how does one decide to make a trade? These are the permutations that Falvey and his merry men have gone through all offseason. There is plenty to think about and it seems like the Twins are holding some guys from trades, at least to this point. 

If fans want a pitcher like George Kirby, then Royce Lewis is going to be the ask.

I'm good going with Varland behind Lopez, Ryan, and Ober with Paddack the #5, watching his innings and stress levels coming back from TJ 2. 

[Brandon]

The Twins sent scouts to Odorizzi’s showcase.   He could be their next sign if he looks the part.  Probably a minor league deal with opt outs.  He may find better options elsewhere.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Noah Syndegaard seems to be another name on their radar. I guess the plan is to add another starting pitcher for depth or 'break glass in the case of emergency' while Varland is stretched out in AAA. 

 

[weitz41]

I'm going to verve off from your thought process and throw a couple of names you haven't mentioned. Whit Merrifield as a Free Agent and Dylan Carlson as a trade target. Merrifield could split time with Julien at second base and played every OF position last year. Carlson has played every OF position, Has 3? years of control and crushes lefties (check his career stats) I think it was 135 OPS+ against lefties. As for a starter, I think that ship has sailed till Aug 1st. There's a lot that can happen between now and then. Also, a lot of prospects that may shine or crash and burn on the pitching side. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

crushes lefties (check his career stats)

I did check.  Against lefty starters b-r.com show a .760 OPS for his career.  That counts everything in that game including the righty relievers who then come in.  It's a problem with the short-side of a platoon.

[Riverbrian]

On 2/12/2024 at 7:07 PM, nicksaviking said:

I am excited for the Twins prospects, but I'm not holding on to all of them when the team could use them to get top of the rotation pitching.

And you're right about Sale's value. He was considered one of, if not the best pitcher in the league. I'd give up the commensurate prospects to get a pitcher to win in the playoffs.

I can't say this and bang the gavel down but in my opinion. 

Those days are gone. 

Young players are getting more opportunity and getting the job done. A player that gets the job done making the minimum with years of control has become way to valuable. 

There will always be an exception for the Juan Soto types but the days of Gleyber Torres for the rental of a Chapman are gone. No way Adam Eaton fetches that return anymore. I wish the Angels would have traded Ohtani last year just to see the return for the rental of the best player in baseball. 

Anyway... I think the value of prospects is at another level these days. In my opinion of course.   

[Cris E]

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I can't say this and bang the gavel down but in my opinion. 

Those days are gone. 

Young players are getting more opportunity and getting the job done. A player that gets the job done making the minimum with years of control has become way to valuable. 

There will always be an exception for the Juan Soto types but the days of Gleyber Torres for the rental of a Chapman are gone. No way Adam Eaton fetches that return anymore. I wish the Angels would have traded Ohtani last year just to see the return for the rental of the best player in baseball. 

Anyway... I think the value of prospects is at another level these days. In my opinion of course.   

Agree, and further I think as revenues (potentially) level off or start to drop I think the middle class veterans are the ones who are going to feel the pinch. The youth movement's been underway already, where cheap kids and superstars will get their money and opportunities, but the Kyle Farmers and Gio Urshelas are going to be pinched more and more in the future.  The guys that can field. maybe hit some but only platoon or without power, or might have injury problems, they aren't going to be getting the deals they used to.  Clever FO without money may still try to Lego a roster together with them, but in general they'll be far less valuable than cheap talent or top talent and that'll be most clearly exhibited in trade values.