Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #10 Tanner Schobel, 2B/3B

[Cody Schoenmann]

After undergoing notable peaks and valleys during his second season in the Twins' minor-league system, former second-round pick Tanner Schobel earns the 10th spot on Twins Daily's 2024 prospect rankings.

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo

Now that we're into the top 10, we're going to feature each prospect of our countdown in their own, individual post. More talent, more details, more debate.

Tanner Schobel
Age: 22 (DOB: 6/4/2001)
2022 Stats (A+/AA): 554 PA, .265/.352/.424, 16 HR, 16 2B, 12 SB, 107 wRC+
ETA: 2025
2023 Ranking: 18

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's to Like
After hitting just one home run between Rookie ball and Low A during his 32-game pro debut in 2022, Schobel answered doubts about his ability to hit for power during his second year in the system in 2023. He slugged .493 and hit 14 home runs in 77 games in High A. While finding the same pop that anchored his breakout redshirt sophomore season at Virginia Tech (where he hit 19 home runs), Schobel demonstrated a strong sense of patience at the plate and a knack for baserunning, displaying an above-average 11.2% walk rate while swiping 12 bases.

Schobel was drafted as a shortstop out of Va. Tech, but quickly transitioned into splitting time between second and third base. Across three minor-league levels, Schobel has shown the ability to adequately patrol second base and the hot corner, leading pundits to believe he could play those positions at the major league level. The 22-year-old's defensive flexibility and consistent display of patience and discipline at the plate have stirred a strong sense of optimism surrounding Schobel this upcoming season, a primary reason why he has jumped eight spots since last year's rankings. 

What separates Schobel from fellow infield prospects in the Twins system is that he has adequate, if not above-average, tools all across the board; those should translate well through the high minors and into MLB. He has a smooth glove, a strong arm, and a solid hitting profile, while being widely recognized as an intelligent player with a strong understanding of the game and its intricacies. Schobel was a standout player in high school at Walsingham Academy and in college, so there should be little surprise that he has taken advantage of every opportunity presented since being drafted by the Twins in 2022. 

What's Left to Work On
Despite rediscovering some power at High A, Schobel regressed after getting promoted to Double A, hitting just two home runs in 207 plate appearances with the Wind Surge. Schobel's lack of power can best be illustrated by his drop in Isolated Power (ISO) between the two levels:

• High-A: .205 ISO
• Double-A: .079 ISO

Experiencing a .126-point drop in ISO after being promoted is a significant concern, especially when Schobel underwent the same sort of power outage the year before. In reality, Schobel is likely a 12-to-15-home run hitter over a 162-game stretch, which could dampen his value. Schobel will need to show the ability to consistently hit for power (while maintaining his above-average approach at the plate) if he wants to continue progressing through the high minors and eventually compete for an opportunity at the highest level. 

One of the more concerning elements of Schobel's decline at Double A was his struggle with getting the ball out of the infield. Over 77 games at High A, over 83% of Schobel's fly balls left the infield, meaning the balls he lifted in the air could land as extra-base hits or home runs. Upon his promotion to Double A, Schobel's infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) jumped from 16.5% to 26.2%. Double-A pitchers got Schobel to pop out at an alarming rate, leading to his power decrease. If Schobel wants to pass the crucial Double-A test, he needs to focus on driving the ball.

What's Next
Schobel will likely open 2024 at Double-A Wichita, the same level where he finished the 2023 minor-league season. Schobel will be given every opportunity to continue refining his already sound approach at the plate, while attempting to hit for power at a more consistent rate. If he can take advantage of his opportunity, Schobel will likely earn a promotion to Triple A by season's end, with expectations of an eventual MLB debut in 2025. 

Schobel is a high-floor prospect, on track to become a contributing depth option for the Twins soon. Though this is a positive trajectory for a second-round pick, he must adjust and improve on the primary concerns surrounding him if he wants to be considered a starting-caliber MLB player in the future.

What do you think of Schobel? Will he be able to hit for power consistently in 2024? Will he get promoted to Triple-A? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[Nashvilletwin]

Schobel is blocked by three much better young potential stars at his two primary defensive positions. His bat is not suited to DH. His doppelgänger Keaschall is right behind him and might be a better version. Miller is a better utility infielder/late inning specialist because of his glove and can cover SS. Martin is probably a better hitter and has more positional flexibility, including 2B.  

Schobel seems like he could be the ideal definition of a trade candidate either this season or next (as his value improves and he moves further up our list). 

[DJL44]

Classic utility infielder profile

[Karbo]

He's either got to raise his avg, or OB%, or power if he wants to climb the ranks. Hopefully last year at AA was an adjustment time for him and he can be more comfortable with more confidence this year.

[FlyingFinn]

I predict Schobel or Keaschall will be part of significant trade package over the next year. They are just so similar and it's not like we are projecting infield holes to fill with the Twins anytime soon.

[chpettit19]

Feels like Spencer Steer, Tanner Schobel, and Luke Keaschall are all the same type of guy. Scrappy 2B/utility guys who don't look great but seem to just put their head down and do the dirty work and just keep getting better. Like Steer, Schobel and Keaschall may end up as trade bate depending on the timing of their progression and what the guys ahead of them are doing, but if you can keep churning out ball players like Steer (Schobel and Keaschall not there yet) you give yourself a lot of flexibility in managing your organization. 

The Twins need their stars to be stars, but you need these kinds of guys to provide depth and fill in gaps without huge drop offs when injuries happen. Schobel isn't a likely star, but if he can stay on his general trajectory he's setting himself for a nice long career of playing ball at the major league level. Never making all star teams or being known by the national fanbase, but being adored by his team's fans. Big fan of these kinds of players. Hope the Twins can keep developing them.

[jmlease1]

Quote

One of the more concerning elements of Schobel's decline at Double A was his struggle with getting the ball out of the infield. Over 77 games at High A, over 83% of Schobel's fly balls left the infield, meaning the balls he lifted in the air could land as extra-base hits or home runs. Upon his promotion to Double A, Schobel's infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) jumped from 16.5% to 26.2%. Double-A pitchers got Schobel to pop out at an alarming rate, leading to his power decrease. If Schobel wants to pass the crucial Double-A test, he needs to focus on driving the ball.

I think this sums it up pretty well. He's an interesting player: when he shows some pop in his bat, you start to see him as a quality MLB player, either as a super-utility or maybe more. When he doesn't show that power, then the hit tool just isn't strong enough to carry him. He makes good contact, he takes some walks, he's a good base-runner ( 19-3 SB-CS ratio is outstanding) but he struggled at the plate in Wichita to get any power at all. I think it's a decent sign that he kept taking walks even when he was struggling, and he made a ton of contact in sept to finish a little stronger, but he's going to have to do better than the 9 xbh he got in AA last season.

Important season for him. If he adjusts and starts looking like the guy from High A again this season, a couple months adjustment midseason is nothing. If he can't get the ball out of the infield this year, he's going to need a lot more hits and walks to have much of a future.

[Fatbat]

I sure like when we pick guys like this in the draft. For all the misses on the 1st rounders, we really do a great job at getting that role player talent. We do need to keep a couple of them around but what a great trade chip. Its not that we need Schoebel et al to start and develop into an allstar but dang, one of these guys will just on the law of averages. Keep the right one and sell the rest for needed assets. 

[cmoss84]

Is there a little Craig Biggio in that swing? 

[Dman]

AA seems like the toughest level for hitters to get through.  The pitching is generally really good at that level.  Brooks Lee struggled to start there and he has good contact skills. I agree with @jmlease1 that Schobel's approach at AA didn't change much.  He kept taking walks and kept hitting the ball he just wasn't getting the same quality of contact.  Might take some time but I think he gets back to those high A numbers he put up when he was at the top of his league in HR's and OPS.

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

AA seems like the toughest level for hitters to get through.  The pitching is generally really good at that level.  

It definitely seems to be where you see either a leap forward or washouts. the pitchers at AA either have superior stuff or refined approaches that don't rely on overwhelming a hitter with one pitch. The pitchers there are working on a 3rd pitch and already have a quality off-speed pitch they can work with. a lot more of them can hit their spots and you can't wait for someone to groove a 3-1 fastball in the heart of the plate. This should be a good test for Schobel.

[adjacent]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think this sums it up pretty well. He's an interesting player: when he shows some pop in his bat, you start to see him as a quality MLB player, either as a super-utility or maybe more. When he doesn't show that power, then the hit tool just isn't strong enough to carry him. He makes good contact, he takes some walks, he's a good base-runner ( 19-3 SB-CS ratio is outstanding) but he struggled at the plate in Wichita to get any power at all. I think it's a decent sign that he kept taking walks even when he was struggling, and he made a ton of contact in sept to finish a little stronger, but he's going to have to do better than the 9 xbh he got in AA last season.

Important season for him. If he adjusts and starts looking like the guy from High A again this season, a couple months adjustment midseason is nothing. If he can't get the ball out of the infield this year, he's going to need a lot more hits and walks to have much of a future.

Could be adjusting to pitchers with more spin in their fastball (more "raise"), so what was a well hit ball now is a "pop up"?

[Eris]

Lots of comparisons to Spencer Steer. At A+ Steer was the better hitter. BB% 16 vs 10, OPS 915 vs 860, WRC+ 150 vs 140. Data is from Fangraphs. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Eris said:

Lots of comparisons to Spencer Steer. At A+ Steer was the better hitter. BB% 16 vs 10, OPS 915 vs 860, WRC+ 150 vs 140. Data is from Fangraphs. 

I won't speak for others, but I was simply talking about their styles and what type of prospect they are. But those numbers actually make me feel even more strongly about that comp. Definitely the same type of player.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Eris said:

Lots of comparisons to Spencer Steer. At A+ Steer was the better hitter. BB% 16 vs 10, OPS 915 vs 860, WRC+ 150 vs 140. Data is from Fangraphs. 

Almost rounding errors there. I mean they aren't, but they aren't far off either. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins like to waste time stretching some prospects defensively. If Schobel has the tools why not give him the opportunity to have a go at SS? Where he could be more valuable to us.

[miracleb]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Classic utility infielder profile

You are right....which is NOT what you want out of a 2nd round pick......

[Nashvilletwin]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I won't speak for others, but I was simply talking about their styles and what type of prospect they are. But those numbers actually make me feel even more strongly about that comp. Definitely the same type of player.

Agree.  Well, let’s hope if we move him, we get more in return than we did with Steer……..(sarcasm intended).

[Otaknam]

34 minutes ago, miracleb said:

You are right....which is NOT what you want out of a 2nd round pick......

You always hope your early draft picks become impact players with high ceilings. But if they become big leaguers and solid position players, a starting pitcher or high leverage bullpen pitcher, that’s still a decent pick. Nick Gordon is an example of a disappointing early pick. One breakout utility season followed by injury, and not a great minor league history for a number one. At least he has shown enough ability to be on a ML roster. Of course there are a huge number of early draft choices who flame out, so there is that. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

You are right....which is NOT what you want out of a 2nd round pick......

Any 2nd round pick who contributes in the big leagues is beating the odds.

[KBJ1]

How about we quit drafting utility infielders and draft outside the box (our usual box). How about trying a big lug of an outfielder who may not look like a prototypical ballplayer, but knocks the cover off the ball. Aaron Judge anyone?31 teams passed on him.

[miracleb]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Any 2nd round pick who contributes in the big leagues is beating the odds.

Just a "contributor" is NOT what you WANT from a 2nd round pick.   You WANT that from an occasional 10th round pick.   

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Just a "contributor" is NOT what you WANT from a 2nd round pick.   You WANT that from an occasional 10th round pick.   

Less than 50% of 2nd round picks even make the majors....

[miracleb]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Less than 50% of 2nd round picks even make the majors....

Trust me, when the Twins draft a first or second round pick, they are not hoping that they just might contribute a little bit to the major league team.  That might be the ultimate result....but that is NOT the goal when they are drafting in the 2nd round.  That might be the goal when they are drafting in the 10th round........but certainly not in the 2nd round.

[wabene]

23 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

How about we quit drafting utility infielders and draft outside the box (our usual box). How about trying a big lug of an outfielder who may not look like a prototypical ballplayer, but knocks the cover off the ball. Aaron Judge anyone?31 teams passed on him.

Your wish is my command!

https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/66043-twins-daily-2024-top-prospects-9-brandon-winokur-sscf/

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

Trust me, when the Twins draft a first or second round pick, they are not hoping that they just might contribute a little bit to the major league team.  That might be the ultimate result....but that is NOT the goal when they are drafting in the 2nd round.  That might be the goal when they are drafting in the 10th round........but certainly not in the 2nd round.

Of course, not, but that doesn't matter when setting realistic expectations. I'm not even sure what your point is here.

[miracleb]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of course, not, but that doesn't matter when setting realistic expectations. I'm not even sure what your point is here.

My point was that they are not looking for a "classic utility infielder" when drafting in the 2nd round.  That is just common sense.  It seems like you are slowing coming around to this (above) with your "Of course not....."

[Twins33]

11 hours ago, miracleb said:

My point was that they are not looking for a "classic utility infielder" when drafting in the 2nd round.  That is just common sense.  It seems like you are slowing coming around to this (above) with your "Of course not....."

I don’t think you and Mike were ever disagreeing. Everyone wants more than a utility player in every round, but the reality is that so many players fail to even make the majors so something is better than nothing.

[miracleb]

11 hours ago, Twins33 said:

I don’t think you and Mike were ever disagreeing. Everyone wants more than a utility player in every round, but the reality is that so many players fail to even make the majors so something is better than nothing.

Bingo...the key there is the word "fail."  They are not drafting with the hopes that they "fail."  They are drafting (in the 2nd round) to get a guy who can be an All-star type player,   Of course, that doesn't always happen.  But that doesn't change the reason WHY they drafted a player in the 2nd round!
:-)