Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #11-15

[Nick Nelson]

The next installment in our annual spring countdown of top Twins prospects brings a balanced mix, with five different positions represented and plenty of 2023 breakthroughs to be excited about.

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo

Before you ask: no, you won't find Darren Bowen or Gabriel González in this piece. We'll enfold them into this process by giving them their own breakdown posts, and reveal their rankings within the system in due time. For now, we're sticking to the ranking we created by polling our top minor-league writers.

15. Yunior Severino, 1B
Age: 24
2023 Stats (AA/AAA): 528 PA, .272/.352/.546, 35 HR, 84 RBI
Severino really has only one standout tool: hitting for power. He's not fast, he's not good defensively, and he's not very disciplined at the plate. But when the 24-year-old switch-hitter gets a hold of a pitch, he can absolutely clobber it. Last year, he led the minors with 35 home runs between Double A and Triple A. One of his homers in late July was measured at 485 feet.

Pure power as an isolated skill isn't valued the way it once was, meaning the slugging prospect is less in-demand than he might've been in the past. But the Twins still saw fit to add him to their 40-man roster this offseason, after previously leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Evidently, their confidence in his ability to play a future role has grown. 

14. Danny De Andrade, SS
Age: 19
2023 Stats (A): 475 PA, .244/.354/.396, 11 HR, 67 RBI
De Andrade is pretty much the opposite of Severino: an assortment of intriguing tools, but still fairly raw and undeveloped. Making his full-season debut in 2023, he held his own in a tough FSL pitching environment while flashing a combination of solid power, speed and patience. He's always had a knack for making contact, but now the infielder is increasingly starting to drive the ball with authority, which is encouraging to see.

Turning 20 in April, the righty hitter is filling out his 5-foot-11 frame, and while he has mostly played shortstop so far, it's considered likely he will move to third at some point along the way. 

13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
Age: 22
2023 Stats (A/A+): 86 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 
Derek Falvey and the Twins have built their pitching pipeline around arms in the same mold as Culpepper: mid-round draft picks who flew somewhat under the radar in college, but saw an immediate boost in stuff after joining the Twins organization. The 2022 13th-rounder was unleashed at Low A and carved up FSL hitters before moving up to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he mostly pitched well but struggled in his last few outings.

Wearing down late in the season was a concerning sign from Culpepper, whose ability to stick in a starting role was a question mark when he was in college. But his strong performance and sharp sinking fastball have quickly established him as one of the system's most promising pitching projects. In 21 starts between two levels of A-ball last year, Culpepper allowed only four home runs.

12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
Age: 21
2023 Stats (A+): 530 PA, .252/.364/.467, 21 HR, 94 RBI
The bar is high offensively for Rosario to become an impact player, because he's already on the low end of the defensive spectrum: a right fielder with underwhelming range who may ultimately be best suited as a designated hitter. So far, though, the Hawaii native has hit at every level, and he's coming off a breakthrough campaign at Cedar Rapids that earned him Midwest League MVP honors.

The right-handed slugger launched 27 home runs to lead that league in the regular season, then hit seven more bombs in 25 games at the Arizona Fall League, and also won the AFL Home Run Derby. Rosario's got a big prove-it year ahead at Double A, but his production up to this point and his improving patience make him impossible to ignore on the prospect radar. The future fit would be especially nice if his righty bat can emerge in the mix alongside lefty-swinging outfield and DH options like Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach and Emmanuel Rodriguez--plus the newcomer, González.

(Coincidental side note: Before the Twins drafted him out of high school in 2020, Rosario was committed to play at Cal Baptist, where he'd have been a teammate of ... C.J. Culpepper.)

11. Luke Keaschall, 2B
Age: 21
2023 Stats (Rk/A/A+): 140 PA, .288/.414/.478, 3 HR, 15 RBI
The California native developed a strong hitting rep during his time in college and as a fixture in the Cape Cod League. He transferred from the University of San Francisco to Arizona State as a junior and blew up, hitting 18 home runs with a 1.168 OPS to convince Minnesota to draft him 49th overall last summer. 

A righty-hitting infielder who profiles best at second, Keaschall excelled offensively in his first exposure to the pro ranks, posting a .414 OBP across three quick stops in rookie ball and Low A. He drew 19 walks against 25 strikeouts, showcasing his vaunted control of the zone, and also went 11-for-11 on steals. There are strong "feel for the game" vibes with this one. As Jamie Cameron wrote for us recently, Keaschall also put up impressive and exciting batted-ball data along the way.

So far, the 21-year-old looks like everything you'd want from a second-round pick. Proving he can hit for some power as he progresses will be key to cracking the Top 10 on this list.

Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown
20. Zebby Matthews, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP
16. Matt Canterino, RHP
15. Yunior Severino, 1B
14. Danny De Andrade, SS
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B

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[PDX Twin]

Every time I read these lists about the Twins' fantastic prospects, it seems like the Twins have a fantastic farm system brimming with talent that will surely win a handful of World Series in the next decade.

But then ... the system is, if I recall, ranked in the middle of the pack. I have to remember that every team has a list of prospects with amazing potential---some of them even better than ours.

That said, it's exciting to dream about what the prospects could be. Thanks for doing this series!

[mikelink45]

It appears that Severino is what they were hoping Sabato would be.  But too many times I read about bat and then a comment that defense is not would it should be.  I really like the combination - defense is what has held back Sheffield from the HOF so far.  

I would like to see a comparative list of best bats and best defense - who would be on both lists?

[Dman]

I really would like to see Severino work out as a hitter for first base.  Having a good power hitting 1st baseman\DH that can hit from both sides could be really valuable.  He will have to conquer AAA first but he could be a Morneau type bat if it all comes together.

 

[Danchat]

Seems a bit high for Severino, there just aren't many power-only guys who make it in this league. He'd provide more value if he could handle 3B but it seems 1B is his fit... though I'd love to be proven wrong.

Good to see more international talent like de Andrade having a solid year at a young age.

I've been rooting for Rosario, though I hope he can figure out how to avoid being a DH-only. 

[Guest]

Big leg kicks every one.  Never have been a fan of that style, but perhaps Keaschall will prove the exception.

[jmlease1]

i think the assessment of Severino is a little harsh; he might not be the most disciplined hitter, but he still takes walks (averaging like 45 per year over the past 3 seasons) and with a batting average landing around .270-.275 over the same period he makes decent amounts of contact too. yes, power is the big skill here, but he makes enough contact to let it play (unlike Sabato, for example). we'll see how he does; I expect him to get a chance at some point this season when injuries strike, and maybe playing 1B will suit him.

I love Rosario, though. looking forward to him at AA and I hope he keeps smashing the cover off the ball.

Keaschall had as good a pro start as you could ask for, and it's great that he jumped up to high A already. he could push himself to AA by midseason if he keeps playing out like this. He looks like a pretty sophisticated hitter already and it should be fun to see him get a full year in pro ball.

[roger]

After his performance in the AFL, gotta believe Rosario will perform well in AA.  Every time I read about Keaschall, I find it hard to believe he was available when the Twins picked him.  Anyone know why?

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, roger said:

After his performance in the AFL, gotta believe Rosario will perform well in AA.  Every time I read about Keaschall, I find it hard to believe he was available when the Twins picked him.  Anyone know why?

some teams probably didn't believe in his power explosion at ASU, and since he's not projected to stick at SS, maybe they just didn't believe enough in his bat to project him? Hard to say for sure, but the Twins took him high in the second, so it's not like he really tumbled way down. (at the time I think some people thought we were reaching a little?)

[Guest]

Too many times we have salivated over power hitters. After Sano and Gallo I find it hard to get excited for Severino. 

[Guest]

Over the last few months, I have read repeated accounts of the Twins pitching coaching staff to create an "immediate boost in stuff after joining the Twins organization."  Does anyone know is this unique to the Twins, or do pretty much all pitching coaching staffs increase velocity of young pitchers?????

[DocBauer]

Whoo hoo! Something to talk about besides the Polanco deal! Lol

I'm in the high on Severino camp. I u derstand the K concern, and it's warranted. But he DOES also take some BB. He also hits, and does so from both sides of the plate. That tells me he actually has some bat to ball skills and an idea of what he's doing at the plate. That gives him a solid chance I hope/think.

DeAndrade looks promising as a hitter. Every time I read reports last season or checked the box score it seemed like he was doing something good. Seems to have a good idea/approach at the plate and some budding power. Would be nice if he could stay at SS though. He and Miller could make a nice pair of options in the system. 

I thought Culpepper had a chance to surprise as he was young, played at a small school, and didn't have a lot of experience under his belt yet when drafted. But he's been better, sooner, than I expected. Not worried about his tiring last season as he had previously maxed out at 69 IP in college. I'm only worried if it becomes a trend.

Really excited about Rosario's breakout last year. Kid simply PRODUCED. Player of the year, then drills 7 HR in the AFL AND wins the HR competition. Needs to keep his BB up. How quickly and easily does he transition to AA this coming season? He won't turn 22yo until July. This is a big step.

I have to admit I was really surprised when they drafted Keachall. I mean, didn't they jutlst draft this same guy in almost the same spit the previous year? Well, yeah, but they may have gotten an even better version of Schobel this year. Not sure there's anything not to like so far from what he's shown. I do hope he's athletic and instinctive enough to keep playing some CF, even if it's just to increase his team roster flexibility. 

A nice collection of exciting young prospects here in an arm and four very different hitters.

[Fatbat]

This is a fun five guys! I believe Keaschall was rated anywhere from rd2- rd4 in the draft. So far he looks like a great pick!  ‘24 could be a big year for Severino. How many DH ABs will he get now that polanco has been traded? June call up if he is hitting everything across the river?  I keep forgetting how young Rosario is. Someone please teach him how to play RF or 1B. Something. Please. 

[2wins87]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It appears that Severino is what they were hoping Sabato would be.  But too many times I read about bat and then a comment that defense is not would it should be.  I really like the combination - defense is what has held back Sheffield from the HOF so far.  

I would like to see a comparative list of best bats and best defense - who would be on both lists?

It's an interesting idea.  Here's my quick crack at it:

Rk    Defense         Offense
1       Miller             Jenkins
2      Lee                 Rodriguez
3      Cardenas       Lee
4      Keirsey          Cossetti
5      Jenkins          Rosario
6      Rodriguez     Severino
7      De Andrade   Olivar
8      Martin           Schobel
9      Camargo       Keaschall
10    Winokur        Martin
 

For defense I'm going for defensive value, so probable position plays a large role.  In both lists I'm trying to balance upside and floor.  Winokur, I think, has a lot of upside and uncertainty on both defense and offense, while Lee has a high floor on both sides.

Gonzalez should probably be on the offense list somewhere in the middle (after Lee or Cossetti?).  I just didn't rank him since he's new to the system.

[2wins87]

4 hours ago, roger said:

After his performance in the AFL, gotta believe Rosario will perform well in AA.  Every time I read about Keaschall, I find it hard to believe he was available when the Twins picked him.  Anyone know why?

The biggest reason is that it was just a super deep draft with so many good college players that didn't get drafted out of high school due to the shortened Covid draft in 2020.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I'm in the high on Severino camp. I u derstand the K concern, and it's warranted. But he DOES also take some BB. He also hits, and does so from both sides of the plate. That tells me he actually has some bat to ball skills and an idea of what he's doing at the plate. That gives him a solid chance I hope/think.

I always find it impressive how much power Severino has from both sides of the plate.  He really doesn't have a weak side which is kind of rare even among switch hitters.

I know it doesn't matter if he ends up with equally poor contact rates from both sides, but I still want to give him some kind of extra credit for it.

He could still stand to walk more than he does as a low contact power guy.  He was a bit more of a contact guy in the lower levels though too, so I still have some hope that he can return to a bit better contact rates after adjusting to higher level pitching for a little longer.

[wabene]

5 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Big leg kicks every one.  Never have been a fan of that style, but perhaps Keaschall will prove the exception.

The new guy Gabby Gonzo has quite the leg kick too. Great contact numbers, the kick looks like a controllable timing and power generating mechanism. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Up next should be Schoebel, Festa, Winokur, Lewis and I'm thinking Jose Rodriguez.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I have to admit I was really surprised when they drafted Keachall. I mean, didn't they jutlst draft this same guy in almost the same spit the previous year? Well, yeah, but they may have gotten an even better version of Schobel this year. Not sure there's anything not to like so far from what he's shown. I do hope he's athletic and instinctive enough to keep playing some CF, even if it's just to increase his team roster flexibility. 

These 2 get compared often. I don't know. Yes the Baseball Reference height and weight listings aren't updated, but the eyes don't lie. Schobel 5'9" 170, Keaschall 6'1" 190. In comparison Keaschall looks like a beast to me. 

[DocBauer]

20 minutes ago, wabene said:

These 2 get compared often. I don't know. Yes the Baseball Reference height and weight listings aren't updated, but the eyes don't lie. Schobel 5'9" 170, Keaschall 6'1" 190. In comparison Keaschall looks like a beast to me. 

Agreed. No disrespect to Schobel, but when they drafted him so early, I thought it was a cost saving move for Lee and Prielipp and maybe someone else later on. But then he signed for a little over $1M, and I guessed they just really liked Schobel as yet ANOTHER 2B/utility player with a decent bat. And there's nothing wrong with adding a player like that. That kind of player is valuable. And IDK, but MAYBE Schobel is considered a better SS option than Keaschall???

But the 2023 draft was VERY deep due to covid. And I think Keaschall is just a bigger, maybe more powerful and faster than Schobel? It's just interesting that they were drafted in almost the same spot a year apart, and very similar players.

They're a year apart, but I could see both ending 2024 at the same level potentially. And I think both have the kind of "quiet" skill set that never makes them TOP prospects, but just very good "ballplayers" who can do a bit of EVERYTHING well. 

I like both kids based on what they've done so far, and both have surprised me so far. Assuming they both stick with the Twins and aren't moved at some point in the future, I see Keaschall playing some OF, and I'm not sure I see that in Schobel. But they could be a hell of a utility bench pair in a couple of years!

[DocBauer]

BTW, if you recall, Severino was originally signed as a 2B. Dispensing with his early years with Atlanta and the Twins, I took a look at his defensive positions the past 2 seasons where his bat started to take off, making him a more viable prospect. 

He played 33 games at 2B in 2022  and 35 games at 3B according to Baseball Reference, split between 2 levels.

In 2023, he played 21 games at 2B and 64 games at 3B, 20 games as a DH, and 15 games at 1B all in AAA. 

It's a clear indication that he can't handle 2B, or has simply outgrown the position. But it also tells me the FO believes he can still be an OK 3B, potentially. And if that's true, if he can be "acceptable" at 3B, that increases his overall value as a prospect. 

Just tossing it out there as something of interest.

[Eris]

10 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

It's an interesting idea.  Here's my quick crack at it:

Thank you. 4 players show up on both your offense and defense lists. Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Martin. 

[mikelink45]

12 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

It's an interesting idea.  Here's my quick crack at it:

Rk    Defense         Offense
1       Miller             Jenkins
2      Lee                 Rodriguez
3      Cardenas       Lee
4      Keirsey          Cossetti
5      Jenkins          Rosario
6      Rodriguez     Severino
7      De Andrade   Olivar
8      Martin           Schobel
9      Camargo       Keaschall
10    Winokur        Martin
 

For defense I'm going for defensive value, so probable position plays a large role.  In both lists I'm trying to balance upside and floor.  Winokur, I think, has a lot of upside and uncertainty on both defense and offense, while Lee has a high floor on both sides.

Gonzalez should probably be on the offense list somewhere in the middle (after Lee or Cossetti?).  I just didn't rank him since he's new to the system.

This was an excellent list.  Thanks for doing this work.  Nice to see Jenkins and Lee on both lists. 

[2wins87]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This was an excellent list.  Thanks for doing this work.  Nice to see Jenkins and Lee on both lists. 

Yeah, I think Lee is easy to underrate defensively.  It's not as exciting when his speed/range is somewhat limited, but with his fundamentals/instincts/etc. he is a pretty good bet to be at least close to average as a shortstop and above average at 2B/3B.  The number of minor leaguers for which that's true is probably a lot smaller than most fans assume.

In retrospect I think I probably put Jenkins a little high but I think he deserves to be in the top 10.  Scouts seem bullish on his ability to stay in center, so I kind of think a Bellinger type defender is a reasonable hope/projection.

[AlwaysinModeration]

18 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This was an excellent list.  Thanks for doing this work.  Nice to see Jenkins and Lee on both lists. 

And ERod and Martin too.