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With the 49th overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Twins selected Luke Keaschall, an infield prospect who played his 2023 season at Arizona State University after transferring from the University of San Francisco. Keaschall was ranked as the 63rd overall prospect on our Consensus Draft Board. He was an obvious fit for the Twins, such that I first mentioned him as a possible target at the end of May, as he fit so many Twins predilections in the 2nd-4th round range. What can Twins fans expect in 2024? Let’s dig in.
Scouting and Signing
Keaschall was easy to overlook as a draft prospect. He falls into a ‘tweener’ profile: a good-to-great college hitter who thrived after a step up in competition, a good athlete, and someone who isn’t likely to play a premium defensive position as a professional. The Twins love this profile, especially combined with one more interesting wrinkle: a big power breakout in 2023.
After transferring, Keaschall really put it together in the second half of his final college season. Keashcall managed a .353/.443/.725 line with 18 home runs and 18 stolen bases, which he supplemented with back-to-back strong performances in the Cape Cod League.
2023 Performance
Thanks to new tools to which we have access via our friends at TruMedia, we can shed some light on Keaschall’s 2023 debut beyond his baseball card numbers. There’s plenty to be excited about.
Keaschall quickly saw three levels in a brief, 31-game debut, slashing a combined .288/.414/.477, with three home runs and 11 stolen bases. The majority of this sample was 20 games at Fort Myers, so this is where we’ll focus analysis.
Keaschall walked a lot (13.3 BB%), didn’t strike out much (18 K%), and maintained a healthy average exit velocity, just south of 90 mph. Digging deeper into his plate discipline and batted-ball data, Keaschall also maintained a low Chase rate (22.9%) and made contact at a strong rate of 79.3% on swings. Finally, Keaschall had a strong 23.1 Barrel% (TruMedia defines a barrel as a ball hit between 10-35 degrees, with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher). To put those numbers into some level-wide context, Keaschall’s exit velocity was in the top 30 for hitters with at least 50 plate appearances at Low A, with a contact rate almost 10% above the average for the level and a SwStr% almost 5% below average. Keaschall showed a finely-tuned balance of solid plate discipline, good bat-to-ball skills, and enough pop to make for a well-rounded offensive profile--certainly more than he was given credit for pre-draft.
2024 Outlook
The takeaway, for me, is that Keaschall passed his first test, comfortably. Coming from a strong performance in one of the top five college conferences in the country, I’d expect him to do well at Low A. As Twins fans have seen with Tanner Schobel (a player with a similar profile), moving up a level can make all the difference in players suddenly encountering a roadblock. I’d expect Keaschall to start 2024 at High-A Cedar Rapids. Expect more peaks and valleys in 2024, but still, there’s a little more to his offensive profile than meet the eye.
What did you think of the Luke Keaschall pick? Has his strong start changed or altered your outlook on him as a prospect.
Research assistance provided by TruMedia.
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