2024 Prospect Previews: Luke Keaschall

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins selected Luke Keaschall with the 49th overall pick in the 2023 Draft. After a strong pro debut, what should Twins fans expect from him in 2024? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

With the 49th overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Twins selected Luke Keaschall, an infield prospect who played his 2023 season at Arizona State University after transferring from the University of San Francisco. Keaschall was ranked as the 63rd overall prospect on our Consensus Draft Board. He was an obvious fit for the Twins, such that I first mentioned him as a possible target at the end of May, as he fit so many Twins predilections in the 2nd-4th round range. What can Twins fans expect in 2024? Let’s dig in.

Scouting and Signing
Keaschall was easy to overlook as a draft prospect. He falls into a ‘tweener’ profile: a good-to-great college hitter who thrived after a step up in competition, a good athlete, and someone who isn’t likely to play a premium defensive position as a professional. The Twins love this profile, especially combined with one more interesting wrinkle: a big power breakout in 2023.

After transferring, Keaschall really put it together in the second half of his final college season. Keashcall managed a .353/.443/.725 line with 18 home runs and 18 stolen bases, which he supplemented with back-to-back strong performances in the Cape Cod League.

2023 Performance
Thanks to new tools to which we have access via our friends at TruMedia, we can shed some light on Keaschall’s 2023 debut beyond his baseball card numbers. There’s plenty to be excited about.

Keaschall quickly saw three levels in a brief, 31-game debut, slashing a combined .288/.414/.477, with three home runs and 11 stolen bases. The majority of this sample was 20 games at Fort Myers, so this is where we’ll focus analysis.

Keaschall walked a lot (13.3 BB%), didn’t strike out much (18 K%), and maintained a healthy average exit velocity, just south of 90 mph. Digging deeper into his plate discipline and batted-ball data, Keaschall also maintained a low Chase rate (22.9%) and made contact at a strong rate of 79.3% on swings. Finally, Keaschall had a strong 23.1 Barrel% (TruMedia defines a barrel as a ball hit between 10-35 degrees, with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher). To put those numbers into some level-wide context, Keaschall’s exit velocity was in the top 30 for hitters with at least 50 plate appearances at Low A, with a contact rate almost 10% above the average for the level and a SwStr% almost 5% below average. Keaschall showed a finely-tuned balance of solid plate discipline, good bat-to-ball skills, and enough pop to make for a well-rounded offensive profile--certainly more than he was given credit for pre-draft.

2024 Outlook
The takeaway, for me, is that Keaschall passed his first test, comfortably. Coming from a strong performance in one of the top five college conferences in the country, I’d expect him to do well at Low A. As Twins fans have seen with Tanner Schobel (a player with a similar profile), moving up a level can make all the difference in players suddenly encountering a roadblock. I’d expect Keaschall to start 2024 at High-A Cedar Rapids. Expect more peaks and valleys in 2024, but still, there’s a little more to his offensive profile than meet the eye.

What did you think of the Luke Keaschall pick? Has his strong start changed or altered your outlook on him as a prospect.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[DJL44]

The Twins are going to produce half the second basemen in MLB at this rate

[TopGunn#22]

Good write up.  Would Luke's primary defensive position be 2nd base?  As a college player, he could move quickly up the ranks if his play continues at a high level.  With his similarity to Schobel this presents an opportunity to use one of them in a trade at the deadline.  Having De Andrade, Miller, Schobel and Salas along with Lee is great depth at SS throughout many levels in our system.  Was it Noah Miller who won a Platinum Gold Glove last season?  

[Dman]

There were a lot of really good bats left at that spot in the draft so I wasn't sure about the pick at the time.  He quickly made a believer out of me though.  With his arm not being a strength he looks pigeon holed at 2nd unless he can play eft field.  He has good speed to go along with good power and with his good plate discipline looks like fast mover to me.

He looks like a better version of Tanner Schobel and if both continue to perform I assume one of them gets traded as the infield looks pretty crowded right now, but will have to wait and see.

[tony&rodney]

Luke will get a chance to show his skills next at Cedar Rapids. He has competition in the middle infield within the system. A name that sometimes gets overlooked is the athletic Ben Ross. Should be a fun summer following the minor league guys.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Good write up.  Would Luke's primary defensive position be 2nd base?  As a college player, he could move quickly up the ranks if his play continues at a high level.  With his similarity to Schobel this presents an opportunity to use one of them in a trade at the deadline.  Having De Andrade, Miller, Schobel and Salas along with Lee is great depth at SS throughout many levels in our system.  Was it Noah Miller who won a Platinum Gold Glove last season?  

I was under the impression that centerfield was a possibility, so that would be a premium defensive position.  A Willi Castro type utility role is probably more likely though. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Was it Noah Miller who won a Platinum Gold Glove last season?  

Yes, Miller has a slick glove. He is young still but needs to pick up some strength at the plate because the offense is lacking. Miller has had some stretches of decent at bats that provide hope for improvement.

[bjorks]

Got to watch Keaschall quite a bit at ASU and he's just a grinder. I'm pretty sure he was a decent wrestler in HS, but he's a little bit of an old school guy who works hard and you know what they say, hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard. I've been trying to think of who I'd compare him to as someone like Castro isn't quite it. Keaschall has a better bat than Castro and Keaschall IMHO has a great understanding of the situation at the plate. He doesn't try to do too much with RISP and he seems clutch, but the #'s don't necessarily reflect. At times with Correa last year, you just had the gut feeling this was a GIDP or Ron Davis was going to blow a hold, you don't ever get that feeling with Keaschall. 

He's athletic enough to be a super utility - great at nothing, good at everything and his home is probably up the middle, maybe LF. Depending on your preferred metric, he's good enough to start for a non contender or close to contending team as the floor. I hope he just keeps grinding as he I think he could be a valuable guy. Not saying he's Farmer, but that type of role and that's an asset. 

[Fatbat]

I know keaschall was a possible pick but was surprised when it happened because of all the duplication in the system. It’s possible that he is just that good and other guys get moved as we are finally in a position to trade away other guys and keep the best fit with the highest ceiling. The FO obviously had him ranked higher than other college bats that could have been picked at 49. Guys like LK have big value in MLB and its TOO EARLY to say he can’t stick in a premium D position.  He looks a lot like a young RL in the batters box. He may turn out to be a great pick!!! 

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are going to produce half the second basemen in MLB at this rate

Honestly, I think that's part of the plan. Keep flipping them for pitching.

I like the gamer description, I love a player in the Dozier Pedroia mold. It's also the word I used to describe Schobel in the small sample I've seen here in Wichita. Dude just looks like a ball player. Hopefully Keashall is the same. There is a market for those guys.

[Jamie Cameron]

9 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Good write up.  Would Luke's primary defensive position be 2nd base?  As a college player, he could move quickly up the ranks if his play continues at a high level.  With his similarity to Schobel this presents an opportunity to use one of them in a trade at the deadline.  Having De Andrade, Miller, Schobel and Salas along with Lee is great depth at SS throughout many levels in our system.  Was it Noah Miller who won a Platinum Gold Glove last season?  

Thanks to anybody who gave this your time and eyes. A few thoughts on defense. When I'm writing up someone for the draft or MiLB, I usually stay away from commenting too much on defense, for a couple of reasons:

1) I don't have access to good data on it, conversely, I do for hitting
2) It's much more difficult to get and access footage of defensive reps so it's harder to feel confident about looks when there haven't been too many.

I DO think Keaschall is a good fit at 2B, but I also agree with folks who are saying he could play all over the place. 

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, Fatbat said:

  He looks a lot like a young RL in the batters box. 

I know abbreviations save time and energy but who (or what) is RL?  Rich Little?  Roberto Luongo?  Robin Leach?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I know abbreviations save time and energy but who (or what) is RL?  Rich Little?  Roberto Luongo?  Robin Leach?

Royce Lewis? Though he's not exactly old...

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I know abbreviations save time and energy but who (or what) is RL?  Rich Little?  Roberto Luongo?  Robin Leach?

Royce Lewis and the leg kick. Lewis got rid of it but it was something he was knocked for doing.  Can someone do a video over lay to see how similar their swings are? Say RL in AA back in 2021….

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, bjorks said:

Got to watch Keaschall quite a bit at ASU and he's just a grinder. I'm pretty sure he was a decent wrestler in HS, but he's a little bit of an old school guy who works hard and you know what they say, hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard. I've been trying to think of who I'd compare him to as someone like Castro isn't quite it. Keaschall has a better bat than Castro and Keaschall IMHO has a great understanding of the situation at the plate. He doesn't try to do too much with RISP and he seems clutch, but the #'s don't necessarily reflect. At times with Correa last year, you just had the gut feeling this was a GIDP or Ron Davis was going to blow a hold, you don't ever get that feeling with Keaschall. 

He's athletic enough to be a super utility - great at nothing, good at everything and his home is probably up the middle, maybe LF. Depending on your preferred metric, he's good enough to start for a non contender or close to contending team as the floor. I hope he just keeps grinding as he I think he could be a valuable guy. Not saying he's Farmer, but that type of role and that's an asset. 

Very helpful background and overview. Thanks for that. I didn't know anything about Keaschall when the Twins drafted him, but he's looking like a very good pick. He has that "look" of a consistently good hitter. 

[miracleb]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are going to produce half the second basemen in MLB at this rate

This was a funny line.....but true.  Seems like 2nd base is where shortstops go to die if they can't cut it anymore.  Carlos will have a home at 2nd base in 3-4 years (with his arm....maybe 3rd base.....)   Other than 1st base, it is one of the easiest positions for a team to fill.  Not sure that drafting 2nd basemen is a good plan.  Hopefully, his glove can transition elsewhere......if his bat can "force" him into the line-up!    :)

[jorgenswest]

The only data that is useful is seeing how a player is used by the team in the minors. Most second basemen in the majors played shortstop in the minors. When I see Spencer Steer start games occasionally at SS (48 in minors) I think they might be able to stick at 2B. It looks now like Steer is a corner player that will play mostly 1B/LF. I would have more confidence in someone likely Dozier who played a lot of SS in the minors. Pedroia began his minor league career as a SS. Altuve didn’t play SS in the minors but he also didn’t move around.

Utility players like Castro almost always start at SS in the minors. Zobrist was a SS. Players that move around indicate to me that the team is trying to find a fit for them. I don’t think they are trying to develop a utility player. Julien bounced around in college and the minors.

The Twins played Keaschall mostly at 2B. Their use of him the next year or two will be telling. Maybe he will be like Altuve and play almost exclusively at 2B. Then I would be confident he can stick there. If he starts bouncing around I will think they are looking for a spot for him to settle. I would not think utility player is a possibility without SS. 

Keaschall and Schobel may be on a similar path as Steer. They will need to get to the majors with their bats and those bats will have to be adequate enough to play a corner position.

 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

This was a funny line.....but true.  Seems like 2nd base is where shortstops go to die if they can't cut it anymore.  Carlos will have a home at 2nd base in 3-4 years (with his arm....maybe 3rd base.....)   Other than 1st base, it is one of the easiest positions for a team to fill.  Not sure that drafting 2nd basemen is a good plan.  Hopefully, his glove can transition elsewhere......if his bat can "force" him into the line-up!    :)

I think the Twins like his profile as a hitter and see him as someone whose bat skills can get him up to MLB at some position. Organizationally I don't think they worry too much about how many guys they have at a position, assuming there's enough levels in the minors and that talent will sort itself out. And for all that 2B is an easier position to fill...there's still always going to be a need for guys who can both hit and field the position. There were 10 teams in MLB last season that had real issues at 2B last season, either from not being able to find a guy good enough or healthy enough to man the spot all year, or had disappointing seasons from the guy they tapped for it. Having consistent depth coming up through the system at 2B ain't bad.

Keaschall had a great start for the Twins and showed he could move up to better competition quickly and have success. He's young for a college player, which is certainly interesting. He'll almost certainly start the year in Cedar Rapids, but he'll get the opportunity to move up if he keeps crushing it. I think the key for him this season will be how well he holds up over the grind of a full season. (it was encouraging to see him do so well in the minors when it was easily the most games he'd ever played in a calendar year, but a full pro season is another 30 games more) It'll also be interesting to see how many positions he plays: he's gotten time at 2B, 3B, and CF so far and if he can be effective at multiples it'll be a great sign.

[wabene]

LK (just kidding Luke Keaschall) gets compared to Tanner Schobel a lot as a 2nd base/utility type. I do have a quibble with Twinsdaily as the player's size is seldom mentioned. Keaschall is 6' 1" 190lbs and Schobel is 5' 9" 170lbs. I think this is worth mentioning although one thing I do like about baseball is all body types are represented. 

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The only data that is useful is seeing how a player is used by the team in the minors. Most second basemen in the majors played shortstop in the minors. When I see Spencer Steer start games occasionally at SS (48 in minors) I think they might be able to stick at 2B. It looks now like Steer is a corner player that will play mostly 1B/LF. I would have more confidence in someone likely Dozier who played a lot of SS in the minors. Pedroia began his minor league career as a SS. Altuve didn’t play SS in the minors but he also didn’t move around.

Utility players like Castro almost always start at SS in the minors. Zobrist was a SS. Players that move around indicate to me that the team is trying to find a fit for them. I don’t think they are trying to develop a utility player. Julien bounced around in college and the minors.

The Twins played Keaschall mostly at 2B. Their use of him the next year or two will be telling. Maybe he will be like Altuve and play almost exclusively at 2B. Then I would be confident he can stick there. If he starts bouncing around I will think they are looking for a spot for him to settle. I would not think utility player is a possibility without SS. 

Keaschall and Schobel may be on a similar path as Steer. They will need to get to the majors with their bats and those bats will have to be adequate enough to play a corner position.

 

This dates back past Jackie Robinson. The best young athletes either pitch, play SS or CF.  By the time they get to MLB, they find a different position. A few stick up the middle. 

[DocBauer]

Interesting, not much SS or CF until 2022 where he played those 2 spots almost exclusively for 56 and 12 games respectively. That tells me the athleticism is there to at least fill in at SS here and there, if necessary, and the ability to play some CF as well.

Playing mostly 2B as a draft pick wouldn't be unexpected. It's a little easier to adapt to pro ball playing only a spot or two, IMO. But most milb players move around between a few different spots in order to gain experience in case they move, and to get everyone on the roster playing time at different positions as well. EXAMPLE: A catcher also playing some 1B and DH.

I would expect him to split time between 2B/3B/CF in 2024, unless his arm just looks weak. The bat looks legit, hoping the power continues to play up. If it does he's a potential starting player. If not, might be a really good super utility option. 

[Fatbat]

7 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Interesting, not much SS or CF until 2022 where he played those 2 spots almost exclusively for 56 and 12 games respectively. That tells me the athleticism is there to at least fill in at SS here and there, if necessary, and the ability to play some CF as well.

Playing mostly 2B as a draft pick wouldn't be unexpected. It's a little easier to adapt to pro ball playing only a spot or two, IMO. But most milb players move around between a few different spots in order to gain experience in case they move, and to get everyone on the roster playing time at different positions as well. EXAMPLE: A catcher also playing some 1B and DH.

I would expect him to split time between 2B/3B/CF in 2024, unless his arm just looks weak. The bat looks legit, hoping the power continues to play up. If it does he's a potential starting player. If not, might be a really good super utility option. 

We got that international signing kid thats playing C & CF. Crazy athleticism. Or Charlie Soto that outgrew SS at 17 yo and was drafted as a pitcher throwing 97MPH heat.  Some guys can play just about anywhere the opportunity presents itself. 

[jorgenswest]

58 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

This dates back past Jackie Robinson. The best young athletes either pitch, play SS or CF.  By the time they get to MLB, they find a different position. A few stick up the middle. 

Agree. Since Keaschall didn’t start out at SS it seems less likely that he will stick at 2B. He has only played a partial season though so it will be interesting to see how they use him this year. If he starts getting more time in a corner I will think that is where he will land.

[DocBauer]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We got that international signing kid thats playing C & CF. Crazy athleticism. Or Charlie Soto that outgrew SS at 17 yo and was drafted as a pitcher throwing 97MPH heat.  Some guys can play just about anywhere the opportunity presents itself. 

I believe you are referring to Ricardo Oliver. According to Baseball Reference, he's really more of a LF who has played CF. But still, that's a testament to the kid being a good and versatile athlete. 

Think about Winoker, our 3rd round pick this year. He's like 6'6" give or take an inch and is probably going to end up 200lbs or more. But he's been a SS in HS and the Twins had him split time there and the OF after making his debut. You always want to look for options and best fits for everyone, even if that sometimes keeping someone longer at a spot than maybe expected, just in case a light comes on. But I doubt Winoker sticks at SS much longer. Still, any time there could only help with a possible move to 3B or even 1B. 

[Fatbat]

22 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I believe you are referring to Ricardo Oliver. According to Baseball Reference, he's really more of a LF who has played CF. But still, that's a testament to the kid being a good and versatile athlete. 

Think about Winoker, our 3rd round pick this year. He's like 6'6" give or take an inch and is probably going to end up 200lbs or more. But he's been a SS in HS and the Twins had him split time there and the OF after making his debut. You always want to look for options and best fits for everyone, even if that sometimes keeping someone longer at a spot than maybe expected, just in case a light comes on. But I doubt Winoker sticks at SS much longer. Still, any time there could only help with a possible move to 3B or even 1B. 

Exactly 👍🏻 

Its exciting to have these versatile guys that are bat first, find a defensive home later. Weed the 2 tool guys before the draft and get the 3-5 tools in house and develop  them. 

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The only data that is useful is seeing how a player is used by the team in the minors.

I don't see that as data, so much as letting someone more qualified than myself do the scouting for me.  😀

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I don't see that as data, so much as letting someone more qualified than myself do the scouting for me.  😀

No scouting for me. If games played at a position isn’t data nor are any hits or outs recorded. I haven’t seen any of it so it is all merely data. The last time I saw any significant play of Twins minor leagues was when Visalia was a Twin affiliate. Those early 1980s Oaks teams were a lot of fun.

[stringer bell]

I think Keaschall's floor is making the major leagues and his ceiling is becoming a major league regular, probably at a position not high on the defensive spectrum. He is precisely the kind of player that should be included as a prospect in a trade netting big league talent. 

[Fatbat]

43 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Keaschall's floor is making the major leagues and his ceiling is becoming a major league regular, probably at a position not high on the defensive spectrum. He is precisely the kind of player that should be included as a prospect in a trade netting big league talent. 

I think thats how Steer and CES got to Cinci. Completely reasonable plan to improve the twins rn.

[wabene]

45 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Keaschall's floor is making the major leagues and his ceiling is becoming a major league regular, probably at a position not high on the defensive spectrum. He is precisely the kind of player that should be included as a prospect in a trade netting big league talent. 

See if they'll take Schobel first.