Twins Trade Candidates: Targeting Extension and Effective Velocity

[Jamie Cameron]

It's likely that the Twins make a trade to address the front of their rotation prior to spring training. Let's try to say who would be the best fit, based on a pitching trait the Twins' most recent trade for a starting pitcher demonstrates that they value--elite extension. 

Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

As we have discussed at length, the Twins have repeatedly traded to upgrade their starting pitching. They acquired Joe Ryan in a great value deal for a few months' worth of Nelson Cruz. Pablo López was the return for Luis Arráez, in one of the most balanced 'challenge' trades in recent memory. Chris Paddack was acquired right as the Twins were starting the 2022 season, in a trade that may pay enormous dividends for Minnesota. In Bailey Ober and Louie Varland, the Twins have drafted and developed a further contingent of starting pitching contributors. 

It's also often noted that the Twins' development staff consistently add velocity to pitchers as they develop. Pierson Ohl is an excellent example of this. When drafted as a 14th-rounder out of Grand Canyon University, Ohl's fastball was around 88 mph. Fast-forward a few years, and it's sitting at 93-95 mph, while he's one of the better-performing pitchers in all of Double-A ball.

Suppose we stitch the starters acquired by trade and the homegrown rotation members together. In that case, we can identify two facets of pitching development the Twins repeatedly tap into: outstanding extension and effective velocity.

Extension quantifies how close the pitcher's release point is to home plate. Typically, taller pitchers have better extension, as longer levers allow them to cover more ground coming down the mound before releasing the ball. The advantage is straightforward: the longer the extension, the shorter the distance the ball travels to cross home plate, and thus, the less time a hitter has to react, making the pitch velocity appear greater.

You won't be surprised to know there's a helpful metric that sums up this phenomenon. Effective Velocity estimates the speed the hitter faces by adjusting raw velocity for the difference between the pitcher's extension and the league average in that category. The greater the extension, the greater the differential between effective and release velocity, which we'll call added velocity. 

Let's look at the Twins rotation members' extension and effective velocity to identify some organizational preferences, in addition to helping us find the starting pitching trade target that best suits them.

Pitcher	Fastball Velocity (mph)	Extension (ft)	EffectVel (mph)
Joe Ryan	92.3	6.55	92.7 (+0.4)
Louie Varland	95.1	6.83	96 (+0.9)
Chris Paddack	95.4	6.92	96.5 (+1.1)
Pablo López	94.9	7.19	96.5 (+1.6)
Bailey Ober	91.4	7.3	93.1 (+1.7)

Joe Ryan is a helpful starting point for our discussion, as he has almost precisely average extension. Ryan doesn't benefit much from his extension. As detailed extensively elsewhere, his fastball has unique traits underpinned by a low release point and the 'rising' effect tied to spin efficiency. Ryan is a solid baseline for extension and effective velocity in the Twins' rotation. Below, you'll see a side-view representation of Ryan's release point and a good representation of his extension (and his low release).

The rest of the group can be categorized as good (Varland and Paddack) and great (López and Ober) when gaining an extra tick on their fastball through extension. Varland and Paddack, on average, gain one mile per hour on their fastball through their comfortably above-average extension. That brings Paddack to 96.5 mph, on a pitch that has been inconsistent throughout his career. In Pablo López and Bailey Ober, the Twins have two starters with exceptional extension (7.2 and 7.3 feet, on average). Respectively, this adds 1.6 mph and 1.7 mph to their fastballs, if we look at their Effective Velocity. Ober is likely the most significant beneficiary here, as the difference between 91.4 and 93.1 mph is substantial. But what are the tangible impacts of outstanding extension?

For every full tick of increase in Added Velocity, modeling suggests a pitcher will gain approximately 0.3 runs per 100 pitches thrown. If we apply that to the number of fastballs each highlighted pitcher threw in 2023, we see the cumulative impact of a rotation with good-to-great extension. (We'll remove Chris Paddack from the following graphic, as his sample size was too small in 2023 to be meaningful.)

Pitcher	Fastballs Thrown	Added Velo	Runs Gained
Joe Ryan	1558	+0.4	+1.87
Louie Varland	1100	+0.9	+2.97
Pablo López	1043	+1.6	+5
Bailey Ober	1241	+1.7	+6.32

Here, we clearly illustrate the impact of average-plus extension, versus elite extension. López and Ober gained 5 and 6.3 runs throughout a season, just from their fastball's Effective Velocity, through outstanding extension and releasing the ball closer to home plate. You can see why this is an organizational preference. The Twins have repeatedly shown the ability to add velocity through the development of young players. Elite extension is a way to add velocity without adding velocity, particularly for players you are targeting or acquiring via trade, as we see from the side-view of Ober's extension below, which is noticeably closer to home plate than Ryan's.

With all of this in mind, it is time to turn our attention to a Twins trade candidate, Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has the best extension in baseball (7.5 feet on average in 2023). He's in a different category from Ober's initial fastball velocity (95.7 mph on average). Gilbert gains a whopping 2.2 mph in added velocity per fastball thrown, leading to approximately eight runs gained on his fastball per season (using his 2023 numbers as a proxy for 2024).

Pitcher	Fastball Velocity (mph)	Extension (ft)	EffectVel (mph)
Bailey Ober	91.4	7.3	93.1 (+1.7)
Logan Gilbert	95.7	7.53	97.9 (+2.2)

Here, we can see from the side just how far Gilbert gets towards home plate when he releases the baseball.

Pitcher	Fastballs Thrown	Added Velocity	Runs Gained
Bailey Ober	1241	+1.7	+6.32
Logan Gilbert	1224	+2.2	+8.07

There are plenty of reasons the Twins won't trade for Gilbert. Given that he isn't a free agent until 2028, the price would be astronomical, and more than the Twins will want to pay. 

Acquiring starting pitching is risky and challenging, which is a good reminder that Derek Falvey deserves credit for his success doing it during his tenure as Twins POBO. If the Twins are going to engage in a big trade this offseason, give me the guy who makes 95 mph look like 98.

What would you give up to land Gilbert? Let's talk about pitching in the comments.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia

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[Oldgoat_MN]

I do not pretend to be especially educated in all that would go into figuring out what Gilbert is worth, bit if read that the Twins had gotten Gilbert for Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner I'd be pretty excited. 

Too much? Far too little?

I'm anxious to read what others think.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This would be outstanding. Do you think Seattle would trade him at all? I have my doubts, but would absolutely love to hear what it would take. 
If it wouldn’t include Royce or Jenkins, I’d be in

[Karbo]

28 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I do not pretend to be especially educated in all that would go into figuring out what Gilbert is worth, bit if read that the Twins had gotten Gilbert for Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner I'd be pretty excited. 

Too much? Far too little?

I'm anxious to read what others think.

Too little IMO. They would have to add probably Julian and a pitching prospect. Don't see that happening.

[TNTwinsFan]

33 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I do not pretend to be especially educated in all that would go into figuring out what Gilbert is worth, bit if read that the Twins had gotten Gilbert for Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner I'd be pretty excited. 

Too much? Far too little?

I'm anxious to read what others think.

Add Raya and another prospect in the 10-20 range and I still think the Twins win that trade.

[Jamie Cameron]

I'll get ahead of this. I actually DONT think the Mariners would be interested in trading Gilbert unless it was for a ridiculous price. I just got interested with the analytical fit, but, if someone can propose a price they think is fair, I'd love to hear it. I think Lee and Wallner is too little. Thank you all for reading and commenting if you chose to :)

[VH 1]

Lee, Kepler, Raya, and lower prospect

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I'll get ahead of this. I actually DONT think the Mariners would be interested in trading Gilbert unless it was for a ridiculous price. I just got interested with the analytical fit, but, if someone can propose a price they think is fair, I'd love to hear it. I think Lee and Wallner is too little. Thank you all for reading and commenting if you chose to :)

Jamie, it was awesome. Thank you!

Curious, is there a starter out there who doesn’t score well with this extension list/data that you like and/or think the Twins would target because they could improve that player’s extension?

[Joe A. Preusser]

I proposed the following for Luzardo (Mia)

Kep

Polo

Lee

Rodriguez

And the overwhelming consensus was huge overpay.  Would it be in this case?

Feel free to sub in Raya or Festa for either Kep or Polo.  

 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

I proposed the following for Luzardo (Mia)

Kep

Polo

Lee

Rodriguez

And the overwhelming consensus was huge overpay.  Would it be in this case?

Feel free to sub in Raya or Festa for either Kep or Polo.  

 

Overpay.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I'll get ahead of this. I actually DONT think the Mariners would be interested in trading Gilbert unless it was for a ridiculous price. I just got interested with the analytical fit, but, if someone can propose a price they think is fair, I'd love to hear it. I think Lee and Wallner is too little. Thank you all for reading and commenting if you chose to :)

Royce Lewis would be the price or at least very close for either Gilbert or Kirby.

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Royce Lewis would be the price or at least very close for either Gilbert or Kirby.

Do you think Seattle would accept Royce for Gilbert? I’d imagine both fanbases would hate that move, which means it probably would be fair.

I don’t see it happening, just curious. At least as the parameters of a deal, maybe not a 1 for 1

[JD-TWINS]

Great analysis on Gilbert & extension value - too, “in the weeds” for me to consider his fit v. others though.

I could see trading nearly any of the guys available for a top half of rotation starter - so anyone but the following:

None of the existing top 4 starters…….Duran ……Buxton - CC - Lewis - Lee - Jenkins. So, outside of these 10 guys, all others are available to be traded to upgrade staff.

I think, for the $$ spent and reduction of trade capital, we should push hard to get Devin Williams from the Brewers to make our Pen elite. He can help us with a positive impact in 45-55 games this year & next year. There are enough veteran & prospect guys left on list to pull this trade off.

Twins goes with the existing Staff & use Festa & SWR & if needed, Headrick to help get to the deadline. If they still need help they can get a guy in trade from one of the 8-10 teams that will have given up by then. LEAST EXPENSIVE, best depth move is solidifying the Pen with a difference maker.

I’d prefer to keep young trade assets and move Polanco for prospect & $$ to be able to sign Clevinger for $14-$15M on a short deal. This seems a way to reduce risk of losing a star in trade (for a few months) and get a reasonable depth arm for a year or two.

Could sign Clevinger and continue to pursue a starter in trade. If both work out, possibly Varland to the Pen sooner than later?

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Do you think Seattle would accept Royce for Gilbert? I’d imagine both fanbases would hate that move, which means it probably would be fair.

I don’t see it happening, just curious. At least as the parameters of a deal, maybe not a 1 for 1

The author asked for an approximate fair price. Lee still has not played a game at the MLB level.

I don't believe Seattle is looking to trade any of their pitchers unless Trader Jerry finds a taker for DeSclafani and signs Snell. Conversely, the Twins like Lewis. I do believe Arraez was a bigger fan favorite than Lewis. 

"Maybe not 1 for 1"? Seattle would want a pitching prospect and Minnesota would want a position prospect added. I would hazard a guess that Lewis has a smidge more value than Gilbert or Kirby. The unknown is how other teams value any of the Twins players. Despite my placing huge value on Kepler and/or Polanco, fans can forget about those two players returning a starting pitcher to slot above Ryan or Ober.

My comment was merely responding to fair value mol.

[Trov]

I have no clue what Seattle would be looking for Gilbert. Really it is what does Seattle think of him compared to others in their rotation.  They unloaded Ray, so less of a log jam, even though they replaced with a starting pitcher in trade too.  Based on 4 years of control, what he has done in his 3 years so far, and coming into his prime, I think the cost will be high. 

However, the other question is how much do they want to upgrade at 2nd and corner outfield?  If they are motivated load up on MLB talent and top talent in AAA they may be willing to take a little less than they could get for Gilbert.  My guess they would be asking for some combo of Polanco/Kepler(possibly both), Lee or Lewis, and a pitching prospect.  It is a huge price to pay, but 4 years of control for a guy that is entering prime and coming off back to back 3.1 and 3.0 bWAR seasons, Lopez was 3.3 last year.  

I personally would not do it because it would wipe out our offense and set us back.  Yes, it would upgrade pitching, but we have a lot of possible options at pitcher in coming years.  Also, if Gilbert gets hurt like tommy john, then you lose a year or two of control.  It is always a gamble to give up big for pitchers and you never know year to year what you will get. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Curious, is there a starter out there who doesn’t score well with this extension list/data that you like and/or think the Twins would target because they could improve that player’s extension?

The Colorado Rockies pitchers end up at the bottom of the list consistently.

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d prefer to keep young trade assets and move Polanco for prospect & $$ to be able to sign Clevinger for $14-$15M on a short deal. This seems a way to reduce risk of losing a star in trade (for a few months) and get a reasonable depth arm for a year or two.

Could sign Clevinger and continue to pursue a starter in trade. If both work out, possibly Varland to the Pen sooner than later?

This is not a bad idea. Clevinger is underrated.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Jamie, it was awesome. Thank you!

Curious, is there a starter out there who doesn’t score well with this extension list/data that you like and/or think the Twins would target because they could improve that player’s extension?

Thanks Cory,

That's a great question. Most of the other guys most often talked about (Keller, Luzardo, etc.) have around league average extension so wouldn't see much of a bump/benefit even if the Twins could make mechanical adjustments to improve it. Gilbert is a true outlier in this one, specific advantage (league wide, not just of potential trade candidates).

[Historyking88]

No way I am trading Lee. I’d trade Rodriguez, Polanco, Raya, and another top 15 player. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

40 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Thanks Cory,

That's a great question. Most of the other guys most often talked about (Keller, Luzardo, etc.) have around league average extension so wouldn't see much of a bump/benefit even if the Twins could make mechanical adjustments to improve it. Gilbert is a true outlier in this one, specific advantage (league wide, not just of potential trade candidates).

This makes me think, maybe the Twins will target someone who is closer to average in terms of extension to be able to build them up?

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is not a bad idea. Clevinger is underrated.

Could sign Clevinger & if they were fortunate enough to pull off a TRADE for another arm, they could have high leverage at the deadline to add a key bat by trading a starter……,lots has to fall right but signing a FA arm shouldn’t stop the pursuit of a trade for starter in the near term.

I still covet the potential Polanco trade, maybe with a guy, for a prospect or a reasonable reliever - Vazquez trade (Twins cover $3.5M of salary) this offseason - moving on from Kepler by ‘25. This saves $17M in ‘24 & $27M in ‘25 from the existing Payroll number. Sign J. Montgomery for $26M per year for 5 years with player option in years 4 & 5. Security & independence for the player……..Twins retain all their trade assets/prospects. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’ll just add, I don’t want anything to do with Clevinger. I know he has Cleveland ties, but I don’t want his personality added to the twins clubhouse

[KBJ1]

I'm all in on acquiring Devin Williams and building a lock down bullpen in this day and age of 5 inning starters.

No way they trade Lewis. He's going to be the face of the franchise for years to come.

Polanco, Kepler, Lee, Richardson could all be traded. Not Ràya, one of the few pitching prospects we have actually developed.

Trading for a #2 starter is going to be extremely difficult. That's why Williams and a lock down bullpen makes the most sense.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I do not pretend to be especially educated in all that would go into figuring out what Gilbert is worth, bit if read that the Twins had gotten Gilbert for Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner I'd be pretty excited. 

Too much? Far too little?

I'm anxious to read what others think.

Just think about what Chicago is asking for Cease who has 2 years of control vs Gilbert with 4 years of control.  They are not going to get their ask IMO but Lee and Wallner does not seem even remotely close given the ask for other top SPs.  Why would Seattle trade Gilbert unless it was an absurd overpay?

[h2oface]

I’m just hoping for one, just one, just one great pitcher these self proclaimed pitching identifying geniuses draft and develop. Not trade the house for. But draft. And I mean like a Kirby, etc. Not an Ober. So far, there have been none. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Count me among those who wouldn't object to a Clevinger signing.

[old nurse]

For extension to work you still need to have the pitches in the first place. Michael Tonkin, Mike Pelfrey, Mike Smithson were all real tall and should have has great extension. It did not matter.

[Parker Hageman]

17 minutes ago, old nurse said:

For extension to work you still need to have the pitches in the first place. Michael Tonkin, Mike Pelfrey, Mike Smithson were all real tall and should have has great extension. It did not matter.

Height does not necessarily equal extension.

Sean Hjelle is 6'11" and gets 6.59 feet down the mound, which is well below average for pitchers who are 6'6" and above. There are other similar pitchers blessed with altitude that do not get down the hill well. 

Extension (and the improvement of) is a product of the rear leg. The Twins development has been really good at getting pitchers to use their bodies better and ride the slope down longer and that helps create extension and velocity. 

What's interesting to me is that the Twins' pitchers in St. Paul are often below average in this area (18 of 30 teams). 

[Paul D]

I originally throught height equalled above average extension, but prior comments seem to indicate that's not necessarily the case.

Since extension is probably known throughout the league there is little chance of uncovering a pitcher with above sverage extension thst is current team does not know about.

How do the Twins recent signings rate on the extension charts?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Count me among those who wouldn't object to a Clevinger signing.

I am warming up to that idea.