Revisiting the Final Inning of the 2023 Season

[Nick Nelson]

I'm finally ready to go back. Let's review the ninth inning of Game 4 of the ALDS, to relive the final moments of the 2023 Twins season and see what valuable lessons we might take away from analyzing it.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The date is October 11th. The Twins are facing the Houston Astros at Target Field, hoping to stay alive in the ALDS after falling behind two games to one the previous day. Heading into the ninth inning of Game 4, Minnesota trails Houston by one. It all comes down to this.

Thinking back to my experience as a fan in the stands, memories of these final moments of the season are a bit hazy, and not only because I'd had a few hazy IPAs over the course of the day. Like many others in attendance, I was in a state of emotional turmoil, frustrated by the team's performance over the past two days and coming to grips with the inescapable feeling this fun ride was about to reach an end.

Sadly, that ninth inning played out pretty much exactly according to our worst expectation. As such, I haven't had much desire to think about it since. But now that enough time has passed, I'm ready to dive back into this last gasp for the 2023 Minnesota Twins. What does the manner in which this team was eliminated tell us about them as a whole, and how they can take the next step?

First, to set the stage: After suffering a painful blowout loss behind Sonny Gray in Game 3, the Twins decided to go all-out and empty their bullpen bench. They started Joe Ryan, but he only threw two innings before giving way to the reliever parade. Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Paddack and Griffin Jax combined for five innings, and they were nearly perfect, outside of a two-run homer allowed by Thielbar.

That home run was enough to put the Astros ahead by one through seven innings. With Houston set to turn over the order in the eighth, the Twins turned to their bullpen ace, Jhoan Durán. He retired the side in order, but Bryan Abreu did the same in the bottom half. It all came down to the final six outs.

Top of the Ninth: Durán Keeps Dominating
In the previous inning, Durán quickly dispatched Martín Maldonado, José Altuve and Alex Bregman on a groundout and a pair of fly balls. Bringing Durán back out for another inning, given the stakes, was likely an easy decision for Rocco Baldelli. The flame-throwing righty had been Minnesota's workhorse in the bullpen all year long, and they needed him now more than ever, to keep this game within range.

Durán opened the frame with an excruciatingly tough assignment: Yordan Álvarez had terrorized the Twins all series long. Unfazed, Durán made quick work of him, striking out Álvarez on three pitches. He started by freezing the Astros slugger with a curveball, then got a whiff on a low splitter at 98 MPH before spiking a curveball that Alvarez chased. Beauty. 

One enjoyable thing about going back to this last game of the Twins' season was rediscovering a few genuinely cool highlights that I'd sort of forgotten. The quality of Paddack's outing (2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 4 K) is one of them. This dismantling of Álvarez by Durán was another. One titan overpowering another.

Durán followed up by inducing a weak groundout from Kyle Tucker. He then gave up a single to José Abreu, before retiring Michael Brantley on a lineout to complete his two clean innings. It was an emphatic finish to a spectacular first postseason for Durán. In five innings across four appearances between the ALWC and ALDS, Durán allowed no runs on two hits and one walk. He struck out six and induced a 23% swinging strike rate.

The 25-year-old has already established himself as one of the best relievers in franchise history. Regardless of what's been going on around him, he's dependably done his part since arriving in the majors. It's fitting that Durán was on the mound when they ended their postseason losing streak, and when they clinched their ALWC victory over Toronto. It's also fitting he was the last man standing on the hill when it all came to an end, doing his part, still giving them a fighting chance.

Bottom of the Ninth: Twins Whiff Their Way to Elimination
Naturally, the Astros sent out their closer, Ryan Pressly, to try and extinguish Minnesota's remaining life. Pressly and Durán have an interesting relationship in Twins history; Pressly was shipped out to Houston ahead of the 2018 deadline, on the very same day (July 27th) that the Twins acquired Durán from the Diamondbacks.

If the vision at that time was for Durán to eventually fill the same role for the rebuilding Twins as a late-inning dominator capable of shutting down any opponent, then the front office was quite prescient. Still, I think they'd like to take back the Pressly trade if they could. Instead of having him available to their division-winning team in 2019 (and maybe beyond), they've watched Pressly do what Durán just did in October, pretty much every year. In exchange for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcalá, Minnesota gave up one of the best postseason relievers since Mariano Rivera–and sent him to the powerhouse they were trying to overcome in their own league, no less.

In 46 postseason appearances, Pressly has a 2.22 ERA and an 11.7 K/9 rate. He's never been tagged with a playoff loss and, perhaps most staggeringly, has allowed one (1) home run, while facing 181 batters in (mostly) game-deciding moments.  

That's what the Twins were up against. Their identity all year long had basically boiled down to "strike out or home run"--they tied for the AL lead in homers while setting the all-time major-league ounchout record--and so it probably shouldn't have been hard to guess how this was going to go down.

First up, Jorge Polanco. He presented a solid matchup from Minnesota's perspective; a switch-hitter who takes good at-bats and doesn't strike out a ton. Polanco had demonstrated his ability to jolt the Twins offense earlier in this series. But here, as he led off the ninth inning of Game 4, it wasn't meant to be.

Pressly got ahead with a called strike on a curveball, then kept feeding breaking balls, but Polanco didn't bite. He watched a slider, then two curveballs drop out of the zone, moving ahead 3-1. Pressly was in danger of a leadoff walk in front of the heart of Minnesota's lineup.

Instead, he found the zone with a backdoor slider for a called strike, and then came with another slider down and in, striking out the veteran infielder on a foul tip. Polanco, who slugged .636 against fastballs in 2023, never saw one in this at-bat.

That brought up Royce Lewis, who offered his own sense of fleeting optimism for Twins fans. Lewis gave us a spectacular postseason breakout, with four home runs through his first six games, including a first-inning bomb to open the scoring in this one. But the experienced and battle-tested Pressly knew exactly how to approach the excitable rookie, hunting for another big moment.

Like Polanco, Lewis feasted on fastballs all year, except to an even greater extent: he slugged .821 against four-seamers, with a .461 wOBA against all heaters. So what does Pressly do? Starts him out with a four-seam fastball at the top of the zone, right at elbow level. It was technically the kind of pitch Lewis wanted, but he couldn't catch up to the 95-MPH offering and swung through it. 

Having raised the hitter's eye level, Pressly did the classic pitcher thing, dropping a curveball over the plate at the knees for strike two. At this point, Pressly had Lewis on the ropes, setting the stage for another of those nice little subplots that had kind of slipped my mind: Lewis really battled here.

Knowing that he's an aggressive hitter to begin with, and emotionally primed to intensify that tendency in this moment, it'd be easy to see him chasing with a heroic cut as Pressly attempted to lure him out of the zone. I think that's what most of us in the stands were apprehensively bracing for. But Lewis held strong.

Granted, Pressly didn't quite execute in this spot. He bounced a couple breaking balls and then threw a fastball well outside the zone. But Lewis watched three straight pitches, to work the count full, at which point the Astros closer unleashed a devastating 83-MPH curveball that dropped to the very bottom edge of the zone. A perfect pitch. Lewis swung over it.

Up came Max Kepler, the longest-tenured Twin and last hope for the 2023 team. Following a resurgent second half, Kepler had reverted to familiar form in the postseason, with just five hits (three singles and two doubles) in 23 at-bats. Here, in his 49th career playoff plate appearance, Kepler was still looking for his first RBI.

He wouldn't get it. Like Polanco and Lewis, Kepler put forth a good AB but came up empty. After fouling off a curveball and then taking three chase-me changeups to get ahead in the count 3-1, Kepler fouled off a hittable slider and then took a fastball on the outside corner, ending the at-bat and the Twins' season.

Kepler erupted in anger as the home plate umpire punched him out, but the pitch was a strike, and I suspect Max knew it. His frustration surely stemmed from the overall situation–a big opportunity at home fumbled, a season brought to an end–as well as an earlier at-bat where he and the Twins truly WERE robbed, in pivotal fashion.

In the sixth inning, Kepler was called out an egregiously inside pitch from Hector Neris, leaving the crowd confused after seemingly watching Lewis steal second to move into scoring position as the tying run with a full count. That's what should have happened. But the mounting threat was foiled by this brutal strike call on a pitch several inches off the plate. Everyone gets bitten by bad calls, but through the annals of Twins postseason misery, highly consequential blown calls like these really are persistently glaring.

In this sense, Kepler's frustration was understandable. The fact remains: he stood with the bat on his shoulder as the Twins were eliminated, leaving Carlos Correa in the on-deck circle and extending his lifetime postseason record to 6-for-41 with a .505 OPS. Will that be our final memory of Kepler in a Twins uniform? It would be a bummer.

So, What Have We Learned?
A few things strike me as I revisit this last inning of Minnesota Twins action in 2023. One is that we probably don't talk enough about the Pressly trade, and how dramatically it helped shift the balance between Minnesota and Houston over the past five years. On the flip side, thank goodness for Durán.

Another is a reaction that many reading this probably share: MAN, this offense was on-script, with all the strikeouts that drowned out any chance of a rally or comeback. It wasn't just the ninth inning; Byron Buxton's meager popout to first as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning was the only plate appearance out of the last eight for the Twins that didn't result in a strikeout. Here's how they closed things out: 

• Jeffers: K swinging
• Castro: K swinging
• Solano: K swinging
• Buxton: Pop fly to 1B
• Julien: K swinging
• Polanco: K swinging
• Lewis: K swinging
• Kepler: K looking

The strikeouts were completely out of control this year. The Twins have got to find a way to rein them in and lessen their susceptibility to these momentum-stifling stretches of fruitless at-bats. At the same time, the front office understandably remains focused on prioritizing power, even at the expense of contact.

"It would obviously be ideal if Minnesota had stacked lineups of superstar hitters who hit for power and don’t strike out, like those big-market teams," wrote Do Hyoung Park. "But here’s what the Twins do really well: They hit the ball hard and in the air, and they take their walks. And the way they see it, if that comes with a tradeoff of more strikeouts, they’re willing to make that trade."

The value of this general offensive philosophy is hard to quibble with; every run scored in Game 4 came on a home run, and the long ball played an outsized role throughout the playoffs. At the same time, there has to be some kind of balance. There comes a point where too many strikeouts is too many, and I believe we've seen it, throughout the latest Twins season and especially at its conclusion.

I'd love to hear from readers and other fans about what stands out to them as they think back to the final game (and inning) of the Twins season. How can the front office best make sure it comes later next year?

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[Woof Bronzer]

I've still never heard anyone adequately explain the sabermetric logic of how strikeouts are the best PA outcome defensively - it's not debatable, the entirety of modern bullpens are built solely around strikeouts - yet offensively, strikeouts are "just another out".  Both cannot be true.  

Max Kepler watching the season end with the bat on his shoulder has nothing to do with a "tradeoff".  It has everything to do with the mentality drilled into these guys that strikeouts are OK, and that small things like protecting the plate and situational baseball aren't important because the only thing that matters is HRs. Not only is this philosophy very EASY to quibble with, it is fundamentally flawed and will limit the Twins' potential as long as they pretend otherwise.  

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I've still never heard anyone adequately explain the sabermetric logic of how strikeouts are the best PA outcome defensively - it's not debatable, the entirety of modern bullpens are built solely around strikeouts - yet offensively, strikeouts are "just another out".  Both cannot be true.  

Max Kepler watching the season end with the bat on his shoulder has nothing to do with a "tradeoff".  It has everything to do with the mentality drilled into these guys that strikeouts are OK, and that small things like protecting the plate and situational baseball aren't important because the only thing that matters is HRs. Not only is this philosophy very EASY to quibble with, it is fundamentally flawed and will limit the Twins' potential as long as they pretend otherwise.  

I don't think anyone has said that. At best people have said a strikeout is better than a double play, but that's pretty obvious.

What the Twins are doing with plate appearances is on the analytical side as they are purposefully taking as many pitches as they can. Doing so does give the other batters more info on the pitcher, but mostly, it makes the other team waste pitches and cycle through pitchers more frequently than they'd like. Extra strikeouts are the side effect, not the goal. 

And obviously it's more than debatable if the ends justify the means.

[Karbo]

I had a coach back in the late 60's that would stress making contact. If you hit the ball anything can happen and does quite often. Bad bounce, errors, mental mistakes just don't happen when they strikeout. It makes perfect sense to build a pitching staff around high strikeouts. They are the safest outs. This front office gets that while building their staff, yet don't seem willing to reverse that thinking with their lineups. Absolutely, they need power hitters. But they need to develop a 2 strike approach also. The late great Killebrew hit over 500 homeruns, but even he would be embarrassed by the strikeout rates this team had last year!

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick you usually seem to have a pulse on what's vital for the Twins, After Gray's blow out loss it seemed that every Twin was bitten by the HR bug. I sensed that even Lewis a clutch hitter was no longer was trying to get that clutch hit in those clutch situations but hitting that HR or another grand slam. 

Too many people equates HRs to wins. If so we should have had the best record going into the AL post season. We need to realize that many of those HRs are hit when it doesn't matter when there are blow outs. Where pitchers are more apt to make mistakes, giving opportunity to HR happy batters. But doesn't matter how many HRs you hit, a win is a win a loss is loss you don't get any bonus pts. for HRs. And when the game is close & especially in a post season game. The pitchers are top notch & psyched you're not going to get any mistakes which often yields against the Twins hitters SOs after SOs & are handed the loss after loss. This philosophy IMO creates holes in the batters swings which we often see batters swinging through a strike.

Back in the day the Twins encouraged every player to hit line drives & go the other way now they encourage every hitter to try to hit a HR every pitch both are wrong you need help every hitter to be the best type of hitter that he is, individually. Help hitters to adapt to every pitch and every pitcher, so if you have 2 strikes you change your swing. I'll take a clutch hitter over a slugger any day, that doesn't mean a clutch hitter can't hit a HR.

To summarize the Twins need to wake up & ditch their philosophy & start creating more clutch hitters & not Sano & Gallo types.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The strikeouts were completely out of control this year. The Twins have got to find a way to rein them in and lessen their susceptibility to these momentum-stifling stretches of fruitless at-bats

1,654 K's in 2023. That sets the record. No team in the history of baseball has whiffed more times than our Twins did last year. 

The front office can explain to me why it doesn't matter until they are blue in the face. 

I'll understand what they are telling me but they won't get anywhere because it matters.  

Our pitching staff led the entire league in strikeouts. Did we luck into that... did we just grab a bunch of pitchers who happen to strike out batters. If K's don't matter there is no reason to go find pitchers who can K. Yet we found them. 

At the plate... It's OK though. 

When you say... "The Strikeouts were completely out of control this year". You hit the nail on the head. 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

During the covid season, robo umps made the most sense out of everything that MLB proposed. Removing older umps away from close proximity to batter & catcher. Yet they didn't install it. Why in the Sam Hill didn't they & why haven't they yet? Because umps bias often favors teams like NY & bias against teams like the Twins. People argue that robo takes away from the spirit of the game I'll protest that fair play should be the heart of baseball. Yet another year w/o robo umps. I'm also against the compromise of having the opportunity to protest a call. That slows down the game & you shouldn't have any limit of having the correct call called. All calls should be correct & standardized so that both pitchers & batters know what they are facing,

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think anyone has said that. 

Lol.  You must be new here :)

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

What the Twins are doing with plate appearances is on the analytical side as they are purposefully taking as many pitches as they can.

Taking pitches in the 2nd inning up a run on a 2-0 count is much different than taking a close pitch with 2 strikes down 2 in the bottom of the 9th. 

This is the exact problem I mention:  a broad approach that refuses to adjust to, or even acknowledge, the situation of the game.  There's nothing "analytical" about watching your season end with the bat on your shoulder; it's just bad baseball.  

[Jocko87]

Paddack was a tremendous bright spot here, it should be a fun year for him in 2024.

I'm in the strikeouts don't matter camp. The timing and quality of the strikeout is everything. Getting beat by a good pitcher having to find his best stuff isn't the worst thing in the world. It happens. If you can make him use 8 pitches repeatedly you will get where you need to be eventually. Flailing at a waste pitch to end a bad at bat is almost the worst thing you can do in the entire game. They had far too many of those strikeouts last year.

At the end of the year, less strikeouts will generally be an indicator of better offense but it's not a direct relationship. It's not the metric to manage to. Good situational at bats are a far better thing to manage.

Losing to the death star that is the Astros may be a good thing in the long run. They have seen the level of at bat that is needed to succeed in the postseason. As mentioned, Royce was pressing after some early success. The Blue Jays and the Astros are completely different levels and I like their chances of responding accordingly.

Very curious to hear more about Popkins and mid-season adjustments especially if he's coming back.

[Parfigliano]

I thought it was perfect that the season ended on the teams glaring weakness.  Way to many strikeouts.  Im pretty sure they will have the same weakness in 2024 accompanied by less effective starting pitching.  Not a good combo.

[GNess]

Offense is really about scoring runs. It's not about strikeouts, home runs, clutch hitting, two strike approaches etc. The Twins rely on power to get their runs, and it worked reasonably well in 2023.

The Twins were in the Top Ten in MLB in runs scored. That is pretty good, and I don't see any reason they can't do just as well or better next season in producing runs.

[chpettit19]

Just some numbers stolen from a Do-Hyoung Park article...

In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. Do what you will with those numbers.

[Brandon]

Presley was going to be a free agent anyways and would likely signed with Houston anyways since he is from there.  Atleast we have Alcala from that trade.  Do we still have Celestino?  We did get some use from him too.  That trade was OK . Especially if Alcala has a good next couple of years.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Just some numbers stolen from a Do-Hyoung Park article...

In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. Do what you will with those numbers.

So wait. . . . strikeouts aren't the be all and end all of a successful team and the Twins didn't suck because of it?  Cool!  I kind of thought so.  But for some, the fixation will continue.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So wait. . . . strikeouts aren't the be all and end all of a successful team and the Twins didn't suck because of it?  Cool!  I kind of thought so.  But for some, the fixation will continue.

Yeah, I want the strikeouts to decrease, but I want them to reduce them methodically. Mostly with a couple of roster changes, and the biggest culprits to get a re-evaluation, but certainly not on a whim and presumption that it will work.

Some seem to think the best way is to blow up every hitters approach at the plate. Which would be akin to starting over from scratch. Still waiting for Joe Mauer to swing at the first pitch. Now let's tell the 13 batters on the current team to go ahead and change on the fly what they've been taught to do. I mean, surely all you need to do to correct years of training is a couple weeks facing AA pitchers in Ft. Myers.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So wait. . . . strikeouts aren't the be all and end all of a successful team and the Twins didn't suck because of it?  Cool!  I kind of thought so.  But for some, the fixation will continue.

I think the totals they ran up last year were harmful, and they need to reduce them. But I don't think the problem is strategy, it's talent. Cleveland and Washington had super low K rates, and super low run totals. They couldn't impact the ball well enough to score runs. The Twins have the right strategy (get good pitches to drive and try to drive them) I just think their talent level has been too low to maximize the results. Hopefully Julien, Lewis, and the rest of the young guys can help produce better results with the same strategy by having better talent. We'll see.

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

Presley was going to be a free agent anyways and would likely signed with Houston anyways since he is from there.  Atleast we have Alcala from that trade.  Do we still have Celestino? [DFA'd and signed a MiLB contract with the Pirates] We did get some use from him too.  That trade was OK . Especially if Alcala has a good next couple of years.

Ryan Pressly was under control for another year and a third (more if you count the postseason), and would have not been a free agent until the end of 2019 when he was traded in July of 2018. He sure would have looked a lot better to me just on the Twins' mound in the late innings of the 2019 post season than Alcala ever has, and my bet, ever will. Even if we let him walk after 2019, like the Braves did Freddie Freeman after winning the World Series with him in 2021 as his contract expired (and the Braves looked totally out of it at all-star break in 2021, with a record of 51-54 on July 30), it would have still had a ton more value than hoping to replace Pressly with Alcala (Duran was a starter and Alcala was billed as the Pressly replacement), and over 5 years later, it hasn't even come close to happening.

 

"If the vision at that time was for Durán to eventually fill the same role for the rebuilding Twins as a late-inning dominator capable of shutting down any opponent, then the front office was quite prescient...... <(It was Alcala that had that billing - he will be ready when the Twins are again competitive - which was actually the very next year, and Alcala was nowhere close - and the Twins were with a much weakened pen)>. ......Still, I think they'd like to take back the Pressly trade if they could. Instead of having him available to their division-winning team in 2019 (and maybe beyond), they've watched Pressly do what Durán just did in October, pretty much every year. In exchange for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcalá, Minnesota gave up one of the best postseason relievers since Mariano Rivera–and sent him to the powerhouse they were trying to overcome in their own league, no less.

In 46 postseason appearances, Pressly has a 2.22 ERA and an 11.7 K/9 rate. He's never been tagged with a playoff loss and, perhaps most staggeringly, has allowed one (1) home run, while facing 181 batters in (mostly) game-deciding moments."

"A few things strike me as I revisit this last inning of Minnesota Twins action in 2023. One is that we probably don't talk enough about the Pressly trade, and how dramatically it helped shift the balance between Minnesota and Houston over the past five years."

 

Amen to that. But when folks did talk unfavorably about the trade, they were blasted with "hindsight" and "something not nothing" and "it was still the right trade, regardless if it didn't work out".  I bet many might still try to say how it was still a good trade and it was better to get something. Me? Not then, and not now. Pressly was on the rise and became the pitcher that cannot be replaced. There was basically 1 1/2 years of control that turned out to be a waste. Even is Alcala ever becomes a real value, what Pressly could have provided for us instead of Houston in 2019 is not worth the "something" that the Twins got or might get. This front office makes all kinds of deals for just 1 1/2 years of control (Mahle for a recent one), so why do you have to trade our best away for a hope and a dream when they still have 1 1/2 year left? They don't.

 

 

 

[h2oface]

I really don't enjoy the Homer/Strikeout plan. I find it a pretty boring brand of baseball.

[Brett]

Nick, this is not what I wanted for Christmas.

Too soon.

[Ex-Iowegian]

18 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Taking pitches in the 2nd inning up a run on a 2-0 count is much different than taking a close pitch with 2 strikes down 2 in the bottom of the 9th. 

This is the exact problem I mention:  a broad approach that refuses to adjust to, or even acknowledge, the situation of the game.  There's nothing "analytical" about watching your season end with the bat on your shoulder; it's just bad baseball.  

Thank you. I was trying to put that last at bat into words. 
You did so perfectly.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I want the strikeouts to decrease, but I want them to reduce them methodically. Mostly with a couple of roster changes, and the biggest culprits to get a re-evaluation, but certainly not on a whim and presumption that it will work.

Some seem to think the best way is to blow up every hitters approach at the plate. Which would be akin to starting over from scratch. Still waiting for Joe Mauer to swing at the first pitch. Now let's tell the 13 batters on the current team to go ahead and change on the fly what they've been taught to do. I mean, surely all you need to do to correct years of training is a couple weeks facing AA pitchers in Ft. Myers.

 

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the totals they ran up last year were harmful, and they need to reduce them. But I don't think the problem is strategy, it's talent. Cleveland and Washington had super low K rates, and super low run totals. They couldn't impact the ball well enough to score runs. The Twins have the right strategy (get good pitches to drive and try to drive them) I just think their talent level has been too low to maximize the results. Hopefully Julien, Lewis, and the rest of the young guys can help produce better results with the same strategy by having better talent. We'll see.

Balance! Moderation! Right? 

It's OK to have a drink or two. 

Now... If you find yourself on a first date and ending the night by throwing up on her... you may want to back it down a little. 

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Just some numbers stolen from a Do-Hyoung Park article...

In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. Do what you will with those numbers.

Game 4 vs Astros. Twins 2 HR 14 K. Astros 2 HR 10 K

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Game 4 vs Astros. Twins 2 HR 14 K. Astros 2 HR 10 K

So that was 1 of the 17 wins for teams that K'd less than their opponent. What's the point here?

Over the last 3 postseasons teams that out homer their opponents are 71-12. That's an 85.5% win rate. 

[Schmoeman5]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So that was 1 of the 17 wins for teams that K'd less than their opponent. What's the point here?

Over the last 3 postseasons teams that out homer their opponents are 71-12. That's an 85.5% win rate. 

The point is a lot of those games were blowouts. Through the entirety of the 2023 playoffs there were only 6 1 run games. There were more games lost by 4 or more runs where you would expect the winning team to out homer the loser. But in close games to just stick to the plan is not good baseball. Over the last 3 innings the Twins put 1 ball in play over their last 8 AB. And your logic is to just out homer your opponent.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

The point is a lot of those games were blowouts. Through the entirety of the 2023 playoffs there were only 6 1 run games. There were more games lost by 4 or more runs where you would expect the winning team to out homer the loser. But in close games to just stick to the plan is not good baseball. Over the last 3 innings the Twins put 1 ball in play over their last 8 AB. And your logic is to just out homer your opponent.

If you win 85% of the time doing anything that's going to be my plan, yeah. So there were far more blowouts than close games because teams bashed their way to blowouts, but you'd prefer they don't try to do that and instead focus on the outcome that happens less so they can win the close games despite them happening fewer times? Yeah, not following that logic. Should those teams that blew people out by hitting homers have not done that so the games were closer? I'm confused.

Nobody said the end of that game went well. I've said in other comments that they K'd too much last year. But this idea that they have some terrible strategy is what's bad logic. You're looking at numbers that clearly show you win more by having more power and you're trying to argue that's a bad strategy. To each their own, but I'll take the plan that wins you 85% of the games.

[Schmoeman5]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you win 85% of the time doing anything that's going to be my plan, yeah. So there were far more blowouts than close games because teams bashed their way to blowouts, but you'd prefer they don't try to do that and instead focus on the outcome that happens less so they can win the close games despite them happening fewer times? Yeah, not following that logic. Should those teams that blew people out by hitting homers have not done that so the games were closer? I'm confused.

Nobody said the end of that game went well. I've said in other comments that they K'd too much last year. But this idea that they have some terrible strategy is what's bad logic. You're looking at numbers that clearly show you win more by having more power and you're trying to argue that's a bad strategy. To each their own, but I'll take the plan that wins you 85% of the games.

The Twins won 86 games. They were top 5 in homers. Why only 86 wins? When you find yourself in a close ball game against better pitching do you change your approach?  They did against Gausman. By laying off the splitter out of the strike zone which allowed them some good swings on fastballs. You're arguing just to argue about out homering your opponent.  When you limit yourself to only 1 option to score regardless of the situation is crazy. And it's also why they got bounced. Hey look! They won their games when they out homered their opponents but they lost when they didn't. They need to double down. They might stike out 2000 times this year but they hit more homers. So it must be working. 2019. Another perfect example of all or nothing. The recipe is getting guys on base. Then homer. Solo shots look good on the highlight reel. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

The Twins won 86 games. They were top 5 in homers. Why only 86 wins

Well they won 87 games. But part of why they lost was because they struck out too much, yes. As I said in the last comment. But that was a symptom of bad talent, not bad strategy. Even with all the Ks they were still top 10 in runs. 

Washington and Cleveland had the lowest K% in the league. They won 71 and 76 games. If striking out is such a key why only 71 and 76 wins? They were 21st and 27th in runs scored. 29th and 30th in home runs.

So the worst K team in history was 3rd in HRs, 10th in runs, and won 87 games. The 2 best teams in K rates were the 29th and 30th in HRs, 21st and 27th I'm runs, and won 71 and 76 games.

What works better, not striking out or hitting for power?

[Woof Bronzer]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the totals they ran up last year were harmful, and they need to reduce them. But I don't think the problem is strategy, it's talent. 

I think it IS part of the problem though.  A strategy that solely chases home runs with a roster that is incapable of consistently delivering them is not particularly intelligent approach in my opinion.  It would be like an NFL team wanting to pass 50 times per game with a 3rd string QB and two injured WRs.  The Twins should be pursuing offensive strategies that the roster is built to succeed at.  HRs are expensive!  It's a glamour stat, and you have to pay accordingly.  For pete's sake Joey Gallo made $10m last year.  A mid-market team like the Twins is just not going to be able to build a roster full of capable sluggers with its self-imposed payroll constraints.  

 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Over the last 3 postseasons teams that out homer their opponents are 71-12. That's an 85.5% win rate. 

So you're saying a team who scores more runs is going to have a better chance to win.  Got it ;)  By this logic I'll snarkily say that teams who can either out homer their opponents OR outscore them a different way are 83-0!  

What's the record for teams who outscore their opponent in non-HR runs?  I'm guessing these percentages are pretty consistent over the last 100 years of baseball.  I don't think they're particularly meaningful.  It would be like saying, when a football team scores more TDs than their opponent they're more likely to win the game.  Yep, agreed.  Even so, football coaches don't throw for the end zone on every play though.  

 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I think it IS part of the problem though.  A strategy that solely chases home runs with a roster that is incapable of consistently delivering them is not particularly intelligent approach in my opinion.  It would be like an NFL team wanting to pass 50 times per game with a 3rd string QB and two injured WRs.  The Twins should be pursuing offensive strategies that the roster is built to succeed at.  HRs are expensive!  It's a glamour stat, and you have to pay accordingly.  For pete's sake Joey Gallo made $10m last year.  A mid-market team like the Twins is just not going to be able to build a roster full of capable sluggers with its self-imposed payroll constraints.  

 

They aren't "solely chasing home runs." They're chasing hard contact by being selective on what pitches they swing at so they can maximize damage on their swings while raising pitch counts for opposing pitchers. Home runs are not the strategy for every hitter that steps to the plate for the Twins. Certainly wasn't for Arraez while he was here. MAT wasn't going to be a successful hitter by choking up and just trying to slap the ball around either. That's a big part of this. People want to equate cutting down swings to obvious improvement in success. That's not how it works. You still have to be able to square the ball up with authority to be successful. The league wide batting line with 2 strikes in 2023 was .172/.249/.273/.523. Hoping for some sort of dramatic increase in run scoring by choking up and not striking out with 2 strikes is ignoring the reality of major league hitter's success rates with 2 strikes. Thinking MLB hitters can simply flip a switch with 2 strikes and suddenly hit like Luis Arraez simply isn't realistic.

If they can't build that roster they're doomed to a below average offense. You can produce sluggers through your system. They don't all have to be high priced players. Royce Lewis provided some power and he wasn't making $10M last year. MAT produced power and wasn't making $10M. Julien. Wallner. The Twins can't build any kind of team through having to pay market rates for a bunch of guys on their roster.