Who Will Be the Next Young Breakthrough Starter for the Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

For the Twins to sustain their success in the rotation, they'll need more young starters to step up the way Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland did in 2023. Which minor-league pitchers in the system have that immediate impact in them?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of David Festa)

The top-tier Minnesota Twins rotation in 2023 was headlined by veterans Sonny Gray and Pablo López, who both made the All-Star team and received Cy Young votes. Kenta Maeda's resurgent campaign also did yeoman's work. But the contributions of younger starters who stepped up should not be overlooked.

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were key cogs in the Minnesota rotation, combining for more than 300 innings and a whole bunch of quality starts. The Twins went 32-23 in their starts (.581), because (outside of an ugly stretch from Ryan when he was pitching hurt) they both always gave the team a good chance. When you can win at a clip like that behind your mid-rotation starters, that's a pretty foolproof formula for success.

Louie Varland also played an important role in the journey of the 2023 Twins rotation. He stepped in as quality depth early on, while the unit was still stabilizing, and posted a 3.51 ERA across seven starts between April and May.

These impact arms are exactly the prototype that Derek Falvey was recruited to produce: acquired at low cost (Ryan for a deadline rental, Ober and Varland with late-round draft picks) and developed into legit big-league assets. With Gray and Maeda moving on, the trio will likely be counted on more heavily in 2024. And with financial resources limited, the Twins might be counting on the next wave of internally-developed starters to provide depth next year and beyond.

Who's got next?
These seven prospects represent the best hope for meaningful pipeline impact in the rotation over the next season or two. Excluded from this list are a couple of top prospects who are multiple years away from the majors due to injuries (Connor Prielipp) or age (Charlee Soto).

David Festa, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023 Season: Triple A
Don't be deceived by Festa's so-so ERA between Double A and Triple A this past year (4.19): he's a highly-regarded prospect who piled up 119 strikeouts in 92 innings and pitched in the 2023 Futures Game. A late-round draft pick (13th) in 2021 who has increased his fastball velocity dramatically in the Twins system, Festa follows very much in the footsteps of Ober and Varland. 

He still has an important hurdle (too many walks) to clear, but Festa is on the precipice of the big leagues and will likely get a long look in big-league camp next spring. Among pitchers on this list, he probably ranks highest at the intersection of upside and readiness. He turns 24 in March.

Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023 Season: Triple A
Woods Richardson is right on par with Festa in terms of readiness, but his perceived upside has fallen off a cliff since the Twins first acquired him in the Jose Berrios trade at the 2021 deadline. The 2023 season saw his post a sub-20% strikeout rate in St. Paul, despite having two full seasons' worth of experience in the high minors. SWR's flat fastball and lagging control have thrown his future into doubt, especially as a starter, so his place in this starting pipeline list is tenuous.

Then again, he's got a pretty good physical workload base (around 115 innings pitched in each of the past two seasons) and pitched well in the second half for the Saints (2.92 ERA in his final 12 starts), so for now, he's certainly in the mix. At this moment, Woods Richardson is probably sixth on Minnesota's starting pitching depth chart.

Marco Raya, RHP
Age: 21
Finished 2023: Double A
Raya is probably significantly farther away than the previous two, for the same reasons why SWR is so close: development and workload. Whereas SWR has thrown 400 innings in parts of five minor-league seasons, the 21-year-old Raya has thrown fewer than 130 in two seasons. Moreover, the Twins have been carefully managing his usage; he never threw more than four innings or 60 pitches in a start this year.

That all points to the Twins proceeding very cautiously and conservatively with their 2020 draft pick, although Raya can expedite his own journey through his performance, which he already (more or less) has. The righty finished his latest campaign at Double A.

I suspect one or more of the polished pitchers below him will leapfrog Raya in the coming year, but since he's advanced further in the system than any of them, the young hurler currently stands above them on this list.

Cory Lewis, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023: High A
Lewis is one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins' system, for a specific reason: he throws a knuckleball and it looks legit. Very few major-league pitchers are able to master the knuckler, but those who do can pretty reliably give hitters fits, as Lewis did in 2023 when he posted a 2.49 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 between Low A and High A. He allowed just six homers in 102 innings across 22 starts.

He was named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year, an honor that went to Varland each of the past two seasons. 

C.J. Culpepper, RHP
Age: 22
Finished 2023: High A
Stop me if you've heard this before: Culpepper was a 13th-round draft pick by the Twins who has significantly improved his velocity as a pro to put himself on the prospect radar. (You heard it earlier in this very article.) The California Baptist University product garnered a lot of strong reviews during his first full pro season in 2023, handling himself well at two levels of A ball as a 21-year-old.

As opposed to starters who succeed on a specialized three-pitch mix, Culpepper unleashes a diverse arsenal with at least six different offerings, a la Sonny Gray. He showed solid command and kept the ball in the yard while tossing 86 innings in his first pro season. It's not unthinkable that he could put himself in line for a 2024 debut, though the following year feels more likely.

Zebby Matthews, RHP 
Age: 23
Finished 2023: High A
Matthews was selected in the eighth round of last year's draft, within five rounds of Lewis (9th) and Culpepper (13th), in what is looking to be a fruitful stretch of sleeper college arms harvested by the Twins. Of course, the coming year will tell us a lot about the true viability of this trio, as they start graduating to the high minors and facing advanced hitting. Success for college pitchers in A ball is not necessarily all that telling, though it is encouraging.

Like Lewis and Culpepper, Matthews offered plenty of positive signs during his first full season in the system, posting a 3.84 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 1.3 BB/9 between Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids. He threw 105 innings to build a strong workload baseline and implant himself in the starting pipeline. Like Culpepper, he relies on a deep repertoire, more than specific standout pitches, so it will be interesting to see if he can develop a true weapon to elevate his game. 

Andrew Morris, RHP
Age: 22
Finished 2023: High A
Yet another product of the 2022 draft class, Morris was a relatively high-profile pick as a fourth-rounder who received a $500,000 bonus. He achieved stellar results in his first full go against pro competition, posting a 2.88 ERA over 84 innings between the two A-ball levels. 

Morris is more of a "floor over ceiling" guy, according to MLB Pipeline, but he could factor as a back-of-rotation option for the parent club as soon as this year.

Who's your guy in this group? Weigh in.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It's exciting how Wichita will look this season, and there are a ton of guys that should fit this category. Good times in the organization. I'll add Pierson Ohl here too, but for THIS list, Festa and Cory Lewis are who I would bet on (not that I'm not betting on others.)

[Karbo]

Looks like Festa and SWR are next in line. The others all probably need mor seasoning in the minors. I think they got a couple more in the minor league rule 5 draft. I haven't read much on them.

[Dman]

That is about how I would have those guys ranked as well.  I know he is not in the top 30, but Ohl has been good and his stuff might carry over faster than the last 4 guys you mentioned.  AAA can be a stall point for a lot of arms so hard to say how any of those not yet at AAA will do.

I am hoping Festa is ready to take the leap this year.  I think he is going to be desperately needed at some point this coming year and I agree with the OP that out of that group he looks like closest one to being ready for that kind of challenge.

SWR is a real wild card, but he is on the 40 man so he still could be the first arm up unless he struggles at the start of the year.

Raya can really bend the baseball around the plate.  He needs to refine some of his pitches and needs to prove he can go longer to be a starter.  I think he has the plus pitches to be a top of the rotation arm if he can manage the workload.  

I really like all four guys from the 2022 draft.  Lewis could be special but as noted in the article AA and AAA will let us know if he can make it or not.

Morris and Culpepper are slightly younger arms with a lot of potential as well.

I think Festa and SWR are the most likely to pitch at the MLB level this year.  How good they will be is anyone's best guess, but I sure hope they can end up mid rotation arms.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Hopefully those college arms will be rapidly developing.  That could make the situation better in a hurry.  With H.S. pitchers, it just takes. . . so. . . . darn. . . . long to see them in the majors, even if they are very good.

[specialiststeve]

My bet is that Lewis will get first crack at spot starts for injuries... if he does well he will continue to get the ball. If he does not make it happen Festa will be next in line.  Fangraphs loves him ... watching tape he has really good stuff but still needs some seasoning and strength.... we shall see!! 

[mikelink45]

I put SWR in the BP - then it is a guess which is really ready with the arsenal and confidence to face MLB hitters.  I do like the list. Where do they rank nationally? 

[old nurse]

The list really shows that the Twins need to add a starter. As the team has used many more than 6 through the years, 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The list really shows that the Twins need to add a starter. As the team has used many more than 6 through the years, 

I think this also shows that they need at least one starter, if not another 1 or 2 to start at St. Paul. 

BUT

To me there is a LOT of potential for some of these guys to really be entrenched in the rotation by sometime early 2025. That's exciting :)

[Parfigliano]

Being on the 40 man SWR will get the first chance as starter to show he can get MLB guys out.

[roger]

One never knows how these kids will do as they attempt to take that last step.  Hope like heck that one of them will be next year's version of Ober or Varland.

Interesting that you don't have Canterino on this list.  Still believe he has the highest upside of any of these guys.  On the other hand, I don't see him as a starter this year if they want to get him to the big leagues.  Won't have the innings, so moving him fast as a bullpen guy makes sense.  Doesn't mean he can't get stretched out in 2025.

Great topic, Nick.  Let's cross our fingers that they get that next pleasant surprise.

[tony&rodney]

During the discussions on potential trades in the last month or so, my comments have indicated a firm opposition to all trades that include David Festa. The tall skinny right hander needs experience and refinement, but he already has the pitches. Hopefully Festa finds time during the offseason to gain some strength and coaching to make the subtle changes which propel him into becoming a major league pitcher. I believe he could be a #2/3 starting pitcher as early as 2025 or 2026. Most pitchers suffer growing pains in their first turns/year. I guess we shall see soon enough about all of these pitchers.

 

[Fatbat]

I’m excited about all these young arms and Its a nice list.  I’m most concerned about SWR stalling out.  He is still young so if the maturity kicks in this year to a degree, he could be the next Varland or Jax. Festa, culpepper and Lewis in 2025/26 might make us the next Miami rich in young SP. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think this also shows that they need at least one starter, if not another 1 or 2 to start at St. Paul. 

BUT

To me there is a LOT of potential for some of these guys to really be entrenched in the rotation by sometime early 2025. That's exciting :)

We shall see what the first half of the year brings. Given this year’s frugal nature signing a higher skilled bounce back type pitcher to a year contract would make the most sense over a trade. A trade only makes sense if you think that one of the high A pitchers isn’t as good as the ratings people may have.  I don’t trust this FO to make that distinction seeing Petty rise, Steer outperform and Cano blossom. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Nick, same order as I would rank. Unlike Raya, SWR has been on the fast track all his career. It seems sometimes with him it's one step back, 2 steps ahead. Let's see him take 2 steps ahead this season.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It's exciting how Wichita will look this season, and there are a ton of guys that should fit this category. Good times in the organization. I'll add Pierson Ohl here too, but for THIS list, Festa and Cory Lewis are who I would bet on (not that I'm not betting on others.)

Thanks for mentioning Ohl. His 2023 was excellent. And if reports are accurate that late in the season, and during this offseason, he's now hitting mid 90's consistently to go along with control, breaking and change stuff, he might change this whole list.

And the headline of the OP does say "breakout", not, next to make an appearance. I think Raya has a special arm, but it's being brought along fast through the system, but slow in regard to work. I have no clue what to think of SWR at this point.

Festa will debut this year. Good chance Lewis does in 2025. One of them would be my choice for a "breakout". We'll say Festa as he's closer, and has more time to debut, work on things, and then take that next step. 

 

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

During the discussions on potential trades in the last month or so, my comments have indicated a firm opposition to all trades that include David Festa.

Agreed! I've been on the Festa bandwagon for two years and I continue to like him.

Also, agree with @roger that Canterino is another possibility. His problem will be similar to Raya's - severe innings limits for 2024 as I see it.

[Blyleven2011]

Is this finally  the pipeline  of pitchers  , have the scouting department and FO  hit the bullseye  in 2022 ...

Did They do alright in 2023 too , to early to tell ...

If a player is on the 40 man roster ( starting pitcher ) , and is performing  good  , the FO will pick from  there , Festa is close and Lewis is  intriguing  ...

they like ohl alot and he made a breakout  in second half of 2023 , improved his velocity  and still maintained  his control  ...

Canterino has been a  starter and has great stuff , limited due to injuries and Tommy John surgery  , my guess they will use him in the bullpen and try to ease him along  ...

It's nice to know we have some arms that showed great promise after 1 year of proball  ...

FO usually doesn't  move all that fast at promoting  , this could be a special group to keep watching their progress ...

 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Great job Nick, same order as I would rank. Unlike Raya, SWR has been on the fast track all his career. It seems sometimes with him it's one step back, 2 steps ahead. Let's see him take 2 steps this season.

Yes , swr has taken a few steps back since his debut start in 2022 , last game of the season I think ...

He started looking better in second half last season  , let's hope there is still a future for him  , still young enough  , has been pushed rapidly through the minors and stalling out in AAA  , but again he is still young ...

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

My bet is that Lewis will get first crack at spot starts for injuries... if he does well he will continue to get the ball. If he does not make it happen Festa will be next in line.  Fangraphs loves him ... watching tape he has really good stuff but still needs some seasoning and strength.... we shall see!! 

Going into the 2023 minor league season the FO and scouting department were high on Lewis and he pitched like they thought he would ...

The others  they were pleasantly surprised with , let's hope it grows into our pipeline  of pitchers  ...

That's a bold prediction on Lewis over Festa  , but one never knows  ...

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Great job Nick, same order as I would rank. Unlike Raya, SWR has been on the fast track all his career. It seems sometimes with him it's one step back, 2 steps ahead. Let's see him take 2 steps this season.

And no backsy

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed! I've been on the Festa bandwagon for two years and I continue to like him.

Also, agree with @roger that Canterino is another possibility. His problem will be similar to Raya's - severe innings limits for 2024 as I see it.

The difference between Raya and Canterino is somewhere between 6-7 years of age.

Interested and confused at the same time on Raya. I know he didn't pitch the covid year he was selected...nobody did...but a minor injury further delayed his debut. But his stuff/talent is so good, they've promoted him super aggressively, while keeping his IP down to build him up. Not sure I've ever seen a young arm handled in this way. Guessing he spends the whole season at AA just being nursed along and built up.

I've previously been in favor of Canterino remaining a starter for two reasons:

1] With a "new arm" and such tremendous stuff, who cares if he debuts as a 28yo? A 5 or 6 strong seasons as a rotation arm takes him to age 32/33 and you get some, potentially, really good years from him. Not saying his career is over at that point, just looking at production and control.

2] Even if moved to the pen, being a starter, at least for a while, should help him build his arm up and let him work on his pitches, and control, before making a pen move.

But I'm starting to more and more to look at him as a slightly older version of Duran...who never had surgery...but had a few setbacks and amazing stuff. I still wonder about letting Canterno start, probably as an opener, to begin with, just to, again, work on his stuff, but maybe just do so with the idea of moving him to the pen really soon. 

Even with his rebuilt arm, it might be more prudent to just accept he's "built" foe the pen, and not the rotation. And as such, he might be ready in 2024. Might be better for the Twins, and for his career. He's got the potential to be a legitimate setup man, possible closer or co-closer type arm, perhaps as early as the 2nd half of 2024 and going in to 2025 and beyond.

[JD-TWINS]

From what I’ve read here and over the past months, it sounds like Canterino has got a probable spot as a 6th/7th inning guy by July or August with the Big Club.

I was sour on SWR after seeing numerous posts last summer about his struggles & poor ERA but read here that over his last 12 starts his ERA was 2.92. My assumption is that’s nearly half of his starts - that’s a big step in the right direction to me.

If these two guys can be part of the solution on the staff by July that would be fantastic.

Not really looking for anyone else on this list to be involved in ‘24.

Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick - Winder - Sands are all guys that are on the fringe of the Pen.

We have our current 5 starters.

Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Duran are locks in the Pen out of Spring Training.

Who are the 8 relievers we bring north to fill out our Pen at the end of March?………….my solution is trade Polanco for prospects and $$$ savings….. trade the prospects and Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez and Winder to the Brewers for Devin Williams (over next 2 years & currently at $6.25M) to solidify our Pen & bring us to elite status!!

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Given this year’s frugal nature signing a higher skilled bounce back type pitcher to a year contract would make the most sense over a trade.

..... except for the next Chris Archer or Dylan Bundy (both were ok actually) have starting prices of $10+ million and the Twins look pretty close to maxxed out already on salary. There is that.

[Brandon]

The name not mentioned for starts next year is Dobnak.  I can see him get called up for a few soot starts throughout the season I put the over/ under for him at 4 starts.  He pitched a lot of innings and had a lot of strikeouts too.  (His ERA not so good).  But he is also a pitcher we can add to the roster and DFA the next day and send him back to AAA …..

 I put the pecking order as

SWR 6th starter 

Dobnak 7th

Festa 8th

Pierson Oh 9th maybe tied with Lewis.

[Doctor Wu]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

The name not mentioned for starts next year is Dobnak.  I can see him get called up for a few soot starts throughout the season I put the over/ under for him at 4 starts.  He pitched a lot of innings and had a lot of strikeouts too.  (His ERA not so good).  But he is also a pitcher we can add to the roster and DFA the next day and send him back to AAA …..

 I put the pecking order as

SWR 6th starter 

Dobnak 7th

Festa 8th

Pierson Oh 9th maybe tied with Lewis.

Because of the 40-man roster status, that is actually a pretty logical pecking order. But I liked this article and the variety of names mentioned, especially a dark horse like Culpepper, and as others noted, even Ohls. Plenty of intriguing arms in the system. I hope that let Raya loose a bit and stretch out his innings this coming season. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

..... except for the next Chris Archer or Dylan Bundy (both were ok actually) have starting prices of $10+ million and the Twins look pretty close to maxxed out already on salary. There is that.

I thought when I said higher skilled it would have eliminated this kind of comment. My bad for not taking the time to go look up to see what is out there.  

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

And no backsy

Agreed, I stated take 2 steps but I didn't state ahead or backward. I corrected it. IMO when acclimated to MLB it'll all be forward.

[Doctor Gast]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, I stated take 2 steps but I didn't state ahead or backward. I corrected it. IMO when acclimated to MLB it'll all be forward.

All these promising prospects should be higher in the rankings while Prielipp hasn't proved anything in proball yet he's ranked 6

[TopGunn#22]

Festa is on the timeline.  But the most intriguing arm in the Twins system to me is Canterino.  Whether he starts as an opener with his new arm, or is a Twins 2024 bullpen piece the guys raw stuff just looks NASTY.  He's a Wildcard for the 2024 season.  I'd like to see him up sooner than July or August.