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The top-tier Minnesota Twins rotation in 2023 was headlined by veterans Sonny Gray and Pablo López, who both made the All-Star team and received Cy Young votes. Kenta Maeda's resurgent campaign also did yeoman's work. But the contributions of younger starters who stepped up should not be overlooked.
Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were key cogs in the Minnesota rotation, combining for more than 300 innings and a whole bunch of quality starts. The Twins went 32-23 in their starts (.581), because (outside of an ugly stretch from Ryan when he was pitching hurt) they both always gave the team a good chance. When you can win at a clip like that behind your mid-rotation starters, that's a pretty foolproof formula for success.
Louie Varland also played an important role in the journey of the 2023 Twins rotation. He stepped in as quality depth early on, while the unit was still stabilizing, and posted a 3.51 ERA across seven starts between April and May.
These impact arms are exactly the prototype that Derek Falvey was recruited to produce: acquired at low cost (Ryan for a deadline rental, Ober and Varland with late-round draft picks) and developed into legit big-league assets. With Gray and Maeda moving on, the trio will likely be counted on more heavily in 2024. And with financial resources limited, the Twins might be counting on the next wave of internally-developed starters to provide depth next year and beyond.
Who's got next?
These seven prospects represent the best hope for meaningful pipeline impact in the rotation over the next season or two. Excluded from this list are a couple of top prospects who are multiple years away from the majors due to injuries (Connor Prielipp) or age (Charlee Soto).
David Festa, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023 Season: Triple A
Don't be deceived by Festa's so-so ERA between Double A and Triple A this past year (4.19): he's a highly-regarded prospect who piled up 119 strikeouts in 92 innings and pitched in the 2023 Futures Game. A late-round draft pick (13th) in 2021 who has increased his fastball velocity dramatically in the Twins system, Festa follows very much in the footsteps of Ober and Varland.
He still has an important hurdle (too many walks) to clear, but Festa is on the precipice of the big leagues and will likely get a long look in big-league camp next spring. Among pitchers on this list, he probably ranks highest at the intersection of upside and readiness. He turns 24 in March.
Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023 Season: Triple A
Woods Richardson is right on par with Festa in terms of readiness, but his perceived upside has fallen off a cliff since the Twins first acquired him in the Jose Berrios trade at the 2021 deadline. The 2023 season saw his post a sub-20% strikeout rate in St. Paul, despite having two full seasons' worth of experience in the high minors. SWR's flat fastball and lagging control have thrown his future into doubt, especially as a starter, so his place in this starting pipeline list is tenuous.
Then again, he's got a pretty good physical workload base (around 115 innings pitched in each of the past two seasons) and pitched well in the second half for the Saints (2.92 ERA in his final 12 starts), so for now, he's certainly in the mix. At this moment, Woods Richardson is probably sixth on Minnesota's starting pitching depth chart.
Marco Raya, RHP
Age: 21
Finished 2023: Double A
Raya is probably significantly farther away than the previous two, for the same reasons why SWR is so close: development and workload. Whereas SWR has thrown 400 innings in parts of five minor-league seasons, the 21-year-old Raya has thrown fewer than 130 in two seasons. Moreover, the Twins have been carefully managing his usage; he never threw more than four innings or 60 pitches in a start this year.
That all points to the Twins proceeding very cautiously and conservatively with their 2020 draft pick, although Raya can expedite his own journey through his performance, which he already (more or less) has. The righty finished his latest campaign at Double A.
I suspect one or more of the polished pitchers below him will leapfrog Raya in the coming year, but since he's advanced further in the system than any of them, the young hurler currently stands above them on this list.
Cory Lewis, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023: High A
Lewis is one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins' system, for a specific reason: he throws a knuckleball and it looks legit. Very few major-league pitchers are able to master the knuckler, but those who do can pretty reliably give hitters fits, as Lewis did in 2023 when he posted a 2.49 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 between Low A and High A. He allowed just six homers in 102 innings across 22 starts.
He was named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year, an honor that went to Varland each of the past two seasons.
C.J. Culpepper, RHP
Age: 22
Finished 2023: High A
Stop me if you've heard this before: Culpepper was a 13th-round draft pick by the Twins who has significantly improved his velocity as a pro to put himself on the prospect radar. (You heard it earlier in this very article.) The California Baptist University product garnered a lot of strong reviews during his first full pro season in 2023, handling himself well at two levels of A ball as a 21-year-old.
As opposed to starters who succeed on a specialized three-pitch mix, Culpepper unleashes a diverse arsenal with at least six different offerings, a la Sonny Gray. He showed solid command and kept the ball in the yard while tossing 86 innings in his first pro season. It's not unthinkable that he could put himself in line for a 2024 debut, though the following year feels more likely.
Zebby Matthews, RHP
Age: 23
Finished 2023: High A
Matthews was selected in the eighth round of last year's draft, within five rounds of Lewis (9th) and Culpepper (13th), in what is looking to be a fruitful stretch of sleeper college arms harvested by the Twins. Of course, the coming year will tell us a lot about the true viability of this trio, as they start graduating to the high minors and facing advanced hitting. Success for college pitchers in A ball is not necessarily all that telling, though it is encouraging.
Like Lewis and Culpepper, Matthews offered plenty of positive signs during his first full season in the system, posting a 3.84 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 1.3 BB/9 between Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids. He threw 105 innings to build a strong workload baseline and implant himself in the starting pipeline. Like Culpepper, he relies on a deep repertoire, more than specific standout pitches, so it will be interesting to see if he can develop a true weapon to elevate his game.
Andrew Morris, RHP
Age: 22
Finished 2023: High A
Yet another product of the 2022 draft class, Morris was a relatively high-profile pick as a fourth-rounder who received a $500,000 bonus. He achieved stellar results in his first full go against pro competition, posting a 2.88 ERA over 84 innings between the two A-ball levels.
Morris is more of a "floor over ceiling" guy, according to MLB Pipeline, but he could factor as a back-of-rotation option for the parent club as soon as this year.
Who's your guy in this group? Weigh in.
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