4 Eligible Players the Twins Should Consider in the Rule 5 Draft

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins haven't selected a player in the Rule 5 Draft since Tyler Kinley in 2017. Could this be the offseason wherein the six-year drought ends?

Image courtesy of Rich Storry - USA TODAY Sports

Rule 5 Draft season is upon us, and while it is much less of a spectacle than the traditional Major League Baseball Draft, it provides front offices the unique ability to acquire Major League-ready talent without having to shell out expensive contracts or part with valuable prospect capital. 

Typically, eight to 12 players are selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but only four or five stay with their new teams for the entire season. For example, in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, 15 players were selected. Yet, only six (Thaddeus Ward, Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, Blake Sabol, Mason Englert, and Kevin Kelly) stayed at the big-league level all season.

Of the six players listed, Noda (a first baseman for the Oakland Athletics) and Kelly (a relief pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays) were the best of the bunch, generating 2.0 and 1.2 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs, respectively. Most players selected in the Rule 5 Draft are corner infielders or outfielders and relief pitchers, and, interestingly enough, those are two of the Twins' most significant positions of need.

The Twins have not taken a player in the Rule 5 Draft since selecting Tyler Kinley in 2017. In a normal offseason, it would be fair to assume the Twins will yet again pass on making a Rule 5 selection, but self-imposed payroll restrictions could propel the Twins into making their pick in nearly seven years. 

So, which specific players should the Twins target in this year's Rule 5 Draft? Let's begin by venturing down South, to Jacksonville, Florida.

Troy Johnston
Johnston, 26, is a left-handed throwing and hitting first baseman/outfielder, selected by the Marlins in the 17th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Gonzaga University. 

Now, one might ask themselves, "Why would the Twins take another left-handed hitter at these positions, when Alex Kirilloff is on the roster?" Although this is a reasonable question, the reason is that due to injuries, Kirilloff has long been more of an idea or concept rather than a player the Twins can rely on going forward.

With that in mind, it might be in the Twins' best interest to find a young, cheap, consistent left-handed hitter who fits Kirilloff's mold, and Johnston has the potential to be exactly that. To further push this idea, here are Johnston's numbers between Double and Triple-A during the 2023 MiLB season:

• .307/.399/.549 (.948), 512 AB, 157 hits, 26 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 18.3 K%, 10.0 BB%, .234 ISO, 143 wRC+

Johnston generated elite offensive numbers between Double and Triple A, while stealing 24 bases, showing signs of potentially being a rare five-tool first baseman.

Johnston didn't play the outfield in 2023, but could play both corner outfield spots at the highest level, as that is where he played in college at Gonzaga and lower minor-league levels. If Kirilloff is healthy and able to produce as the Twins' first baseman in 2024, Johnston could slide into the role Joey Gallo had during the 2023 season, spending time at first base, designated hitter, and both corner outfield spots--while costing nearly $10 million less than Gallo did. 

If the Twins were to select Johnston, he could instantly slot in as a cheap insurance policy for the oft-injured Kirilloff, while competing with fellow left-handed corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and switch-hitting first baseman/designated hitter Yunior Severino for the final bench role on the Twins' 26-man roster.

If Johnston performs poorly during Spring Training or is outperformed by Larnach, Gordon, Severino, or a healthy Kirilloff, the Twins could return him to the Marlins or trade him to a team with a sudden need for that kind of profile.

Johnston is arguably the best position player available in this year's Rule 5 Draft, and if he were to be available when the Twins are on the board, it would make great sense for them to consider selecting the intriguing prospect.

Blaine Crim
Crim, 26, is a right-handed hitting first baseman and designated hitter, selected by the Rangers in the 19th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Mississippi College.

Much like Johnston, Crim, an older prospect, finds himself unprotected after an admirable 2023 season in which he put up the following numbers:

• .289/.385/.506 (.891), 494 AB, 143 hits, 22 home runs, seven stolen bases, 18.4 K%, 12.2 BB%, .217 ISO, 114 wRC+

Crim possesses the ability to get on base at a sufficient rate while hitting for power, which is the perfect skillset for a player who fits the mold of a backup first baseman and offensive utility player.

Despite playing 851 of the 902 innings (94%) he spent in the field at first base with Triple-A Round Rock, Crim also played 51 innings at third base. If the Twins were to select Crim in the Rule 5 Draft, he would likely compete with Severino and a potential free-agent signee for the role utility player Donovan Solano filled during the 2023 season. 

Contending with Severino, who has been a part of the Twins organization since 2017, would be a daunting task for Crim. Even so, it might be in the Twins' best interest to bring him in for his offensive upside and potential to platoon with the left-handed hitting Kirilloff at first base. 

Crim is more likely to be available than Johnston when they make their first selection in the Rule 5 Draft, and with the team needing a right-handed hitter, taking a flier on Crim could make sense for the (presently Solano-less) Twins. 

Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
The Twins initially selected Hoopii-Tuionetoa in the 16th round of the 2018 MLB Draft, but they didn't sign him. Later, he was selected and signed by the Rangers after being taken in the 30th round of the 2019 Draft out of Pierce College.

Beyond his past connection to the Twins, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's pitch mix (headlined by a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a knockout slider) is exactly the type of profile the Twins' front office values and prioritizes when attempting to acquire bullpen talent.

Of the players mentioned, Hoopii-Tuionetoa feels like the most apparent selection the Twins (who need high-velocity talent at the back end of their bullpen) could make, but there is one caveat: He has yet to pitch beyond High A. Though he hasn't pitched at the upper levels, though, Hoopii-Tuionetoa put up relatively inspiring numbers with the High-A Hickory Crawdads:

• 11 2/3 IP, 1.54 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 95.2 LOB%

Hoopii-Tuionetoa's 10.0 K/9 and 95.2% LOB% would play exceptionally well, but his home-run rates at the High-A is cause for concern over whether he could perform adequately at the Major League level. Despite demonstrating some obvious weaknesses, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's potential was on full display at the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out 10 hitters over 9 2/3 scoreless innings pitched.

Regardless, similarly to Johnston and Crim, it would make sense for the Twins to bring Hoopii-Tuionetoa to Spring Training and have him compete with fellow back end-of-the-bullpen candidates Matt Canterino, Jorge Alcala, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Brent Headrick for the Twins eighth and final bullpen spot.

If Hoopii-Tuionetoa is outperformed, the Twins could return him to the Rangers, with the only penalty being the team losing $50,000, which is a loss even the cost-cutting Twins could afford.

CJ Van Eyk
Van Eyk, 25, is a right-handed pitcher selected by the Blue Jays in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of Florida State University. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2021--a unique proposition in this group, as (unlike the overpowering Hoopii-Tuionetoa) he is a lower-velocity finesse pitcher who sports one of the best curveballs in Minor League Baseball.

To further illustrate Van Eyk's potential as a Major League relief pitcher, here are his numbers between Rookie Ball, Single-A, and his time with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats:

• 12 G, 34 1/3 IP, 33 strikeouts, 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 77.3% LOB%

Admittedly, Van Eyk's numbers could be more inspiring. Still, due to the small sample size, it's important not to extrapolate too heavily (whether positive or negative) from the 34 1/3 post-Tommy John innings between three Minor League levels he pitched in 2023. 

Van Eyk projects more as a potential back-end starter than as a relief pitcher, but there is reason to believe he could fulfill the same swingman role Simeon Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder occupied for the Twins during parts of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder will be capable of cheaply filling that role again in 2024, but what is appealing about Van Eyk is his potential to progress beyond a stretch reliever role and join Kody Funderburk and Alcala as potentially stellar relief options in the Twins' bullpen hierarchy for the longer term. 

Other Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players the Twins Could Consider Selecting: Justin Slaten, Tanner Burns, Nasim Nuñez, Hudson Haskin, Kohl Franklin.

Though contending teams are less likely to select players in the Rule 5 Draft, it could make sense for the cost-cutting Twins to make their first selection since drafting Kinley in 2017. Although selecting a first baseman/outfielder who provides a similar skillset as Gallo or Solano makes sense, they are most likely to select a young, cost-controlled relief pitching option like Hoopii-Tuionetoa or Van Eyk.

Who do you like as a target for the Twins in this free talent draft next week? Should they make a selection, or pass? Let's weigh the options together.

Should the Twins select a player in the Rule 5 Draft? Do any of the players mentioned stand out? Comment below.

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[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody for putting together a comprehensive article. My hope is that the Twins could find another Johann Santana in the Rule 5 draft but I really don't see one here or even to fill a gap. IMO this FO will keep it's powder dry for the waiver wire to fill any gaps.

[DJL44]

It makes no sense for the Twins to try to contend with a Rule 5 guy taking up space on the roster. They also select 23rd in a draft that typically has 8-12 players selected. If they really wanted one of these players they should have traded for them and protected them on the 40 man roster.

[Dman]

Johnston is interesting but his numbers (except HR's) aren't that far off of Prato's who the Twins decided not to add to the 40 man.  Prato bats right handed which would work better but is too short to play first base.  Being 26 already and carrying a guy on the 40 man that seems redundant to Kirilloff or Jullien from the left side doesn't make much sense to me.  The batting line looks real solid to me but the fact he he also has limited positional flexibility and is older works against him holding a 40 man spot.  If I am the Twins and looking to upgrade 1st base I use that roster spot on a veteran player not a Rule V guy.

The Twins essentially have Crim in the system already and his name is Chris Williams who they don't have to carry on the 40 man.  Again I just don't see it.

While AHT is interesting I think given how far away he is that a waiver claim would be a better way to go.  Just too risky a move for the Twins especially when carrying too many questionable arms as is and battling for a playoff spot. IMO.

Given the Twins are a playoff team a guy like Van Eyk holding a 40 man spot isn't appealing.  The Twins are looking for high end upgrades in the pen and I don't think he fits that description.

If that is the best the Rule V has to offer I think it is likely better to just play the waiver wire.  Those players generally have MLB experience and are a tweak away from making a difference at the MLB level right away and sometimes they can still be stashed at AAA if they eventually clear waivers.

[Karbo]

Maybe Johnston, but I doubt he will still be there when the Twins get their turn.

[Doctor Gast]

I thought I'd dig further into the rule 5 draft candidates. I came up with one that I liked & that's SD #9 prospect Brandon Valenzuela (C). He's 23 with an ETA of '24 and everything I like in a catcher- strong arm, good receiver, blocker, He’s long drawn praise for his ability to work with a pitching staff  and a switch-hitter that has the ability to take a walk. His draw back is his hitting & although he has the size to be a power hitter he has trouble of capitalize on it. If the Twins can work with his hitting they could come up with a real gem here. Valenzuela will be taken no doubt, under the right circumstances he could be a Twin.

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

3 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Since he'd have to be on the roster all year, they only do this if they are for sure trading Vasquez.

Or Jeffers

[Dman]

17 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought I'd dig further into the rule 5 draft candidates. I came up with one that I liked & that's SD #9 prospect Brandon Valenzuela (C). He's 23 with an ETA of '24 and everything I like in a catcher- strong arm, good receiver, blocker, He’s long drawn praise for his ability to work with a pitching staff  and a switch-hitter that has the ability to take a walk. His draw back is his hitting & although he has the size to be a power hitter he has trouble of capitalize on it. If the Twins can work with his hitting they could come up with a real gem here. Valenzuela will be taken no doubt, under the right circumstances he could be a Twin.

 

 

 

That is what happened to the Twins when they lost Stuart Turner in the Rule V draft.  He was a no bat very good defensive catcher and I believe it was the Reds who grabbed him in Rule V from the Twins.  Turner never turned the bat around and really only played at the MLB in that 2017 season.  Bats can be hard to turn around so it would still be a long shot but like Turner a team short on catcher depth might take a shot just based on the fact he isn't a defensive liability. I don't see it as a move the Twins would make though.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I know not rule 5 but would anyone take a flier on Austin Meadows.  Either as a AAA signing or depth signing for the MLB club.  We didn't do very well with the mental health on Lopez.  However I think the Orioles just caught lightning in a bottle with him.  Meadows has more talent than Lopez.    Just curious what everyone thinks.  

[mikelink45]

You filled in an area of ignorance - I had no idea who was out there.  It will be interesting  but my bet is that the team passes. 

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I know not rule 5 but would anyone take a flier on Austin Meadows.  Either as a AAA signing or depth signing for the MLB club.  We didn't do very well with the mental health on Lopez.  However I think the Orioles just caught lightning in a bottle with him.  Meadows has more talent than Lopez.    Just curious what everyone things.  

An interesting thought. On a milb deal, he could be smart to bring in as AK insurance. Of course, he can also play the OF corners, making him a sort of Gallo replacement. The problem is he's only ever hit 200 plate appearances TWICE in his career. Now, the two years he did he was pretty damn good! 

And I'd actually like him better if he hit RH. He'd be a better fit. But on a milb, he'd be intriguing. 

[Fatbat]

I totally missed this thread and started something similar but more on the lighter side. It leads me to a question tho. If a team picks a player via rule 5 and then the player gets injured, can they stash them on the disabled list until healthy and then activate them as normal?  Just curious.

[Eris]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

The Rule 5 requirement is the player taken must remain on the active roster for a minimum of 90 days. This is from mlb.com. 
 

edited to add, from a 2017 article the 90 day roster requirement can be extended to the following season. 
 

https://theupsetsports.com/the-rule-5-draft-how-does-that-work/

[darin617]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Cody for putting together a comprehensive article. My hope is that the Twins could find another Johann Santana in the Rule 5 draft but I really don't see one here or even to fill a gap. IMO this FO will keep it's powder dry for the waiver wire to fill any gaps.

That means you would have to stash him in the bullpen all season. So can a contending team or at least a team hoping to contend afford to basically play with an arm short?

[DocBauer]

I think anyone would jump on Johnston if available. And someone like the A's or the Royals will do so. He won't reach the Twins.

Frankly, nobody else listed moves the needle for the Twins.

Why is this post ONLY in the WHITE and not the BLACK? 

That's an issue for me, as well as a few other posts. The BLACK background is so much easier to read, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Or Jeffers

Did Jeffers kill your dog? Wow. Every thread.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Did Jeffers kill your dog? Wow. Every thread.

So many trade scenarios have been put forth it is hard to keep track of all of them. i believe that mentioning Jeffers was just a note of covering one of the vast array of trade possibilities or anything that results in a stronger Twins club for 2024. I should let the poster respond but it seemed innocuous enough and doesn't likely involve pets or anger, rather merely loose speculation similar to what everyone else does.

[PatPfund]

There is a good reason contending teams don't take Rule V players; they can't afford to lose games just to hang on to someone who might be good in a couple years. And while you might (might) be able to hide a reliever without it costing you too much, there is absolutely no way to hide a position player with today's short bench.

And yes, there is a cost to picking players like these, then cutting them in camp if (when) they don't work out. You are required to put them on your 40-man, and keep them there, which means you need to cut someone to make space (like Jair Camargo who has a cannon and back-to-back 20 HR seasons if you pick up some no-hit catcher? or Jose Miranda whose MiLB stats dwarf any of the position players named here, and has already been a potent MLB bat when healthy?), or you pass up on someone like Solano or MAT because your roster is already full of another organization's busted dreams?

No thanks.

[mnfireman]

10 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Since he'd have to be on the roster all year, they only do this if they are for sure trading Vasquez.

Actually, the Twins could make rarely used C work for this season, if Buxton can play the OF this year. If not, they keep him as long as they can and let him go back if they decide he's not a fit.

[TopGunn#22]

Ever since Johan Santana the Rule 5 Draft has taken on a "bigger than it really is" attention of Twins fans.  And I don't mean that as a negative, I just think it's importance is "outsized" due to that.  I imagine Old Time Pirates fans are like us as they got Roberto Clemente from the Brooklyn Dodgers that way.

Johnston is the shiniest one of them all and it's kind of surprising to me given the offensive shortcomings in Miami and how we're always talking about acquiring pitching from them on TD by trading them offense.  Still, Johnston will be long gone before the Twins pick and I think our team will just sit this one out.  

[SteveLV]

The relief pitcher seems like a possibility, especially since the Twins already drafted him once.

It is curious that he dropped 14 rounds in the subsequent draft, and that the Twins did not re-draft him.

Jumping up that many levels would be a literal and figurative leap of faith.

Why not take a flyer for $50K? If he can't get guys out in Spring Training, send him back.

[Trov]

The first baseman from Miami sounds interesting option.  That is the type of position player that normally does get taken.  He is of an age that he will either make it and have his best next couple of years, or he will not cut it and you let him go for not that much money spent. 

[saviking]

NO more left handed batters please ..

[Doctor Wu]

Very well researched and interesting article. Some players with some possible upside, but of course the rule that they need to stay on our roster all year makes it tricky. For his name alone, I love the idea of getting Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa. But as others have noted, the Twins will be so far down the picking order that it's unlikely anything interesting will be available to us, even if we so desired. 

[specialiststeve]

My pick off the board would be Carlos De La Cruz..... 

Right handed bat with ability to play all 3 OF spots and 1B ..... Um... that would fit Perfect. 

Quote

De La Cruz is a huge specimen, at 6-foot-8, and surprisingly athletic. He can play all three outfield spots, as well as first base, which could give a team options to get his developing power bat into the lineup should he get taken. He hit 24 homers in 2023, though he took advantage of the friendly confines at (Double-A) Reading, and there could be more to come, albeit with some swing-and-miss. 

Last season he batted .259 with 25 doubles, 24 home runs and 67 RBI with Double-A Reading. The power numbers were the best of his career. # 6 prospect of the Phillies pre MLB. Watched some video... ball jumps off his bat...