4 Eligible Players the Twins Should Consider in the Rule 5 Draft

Rule 5 Draft season is upon us, and while it is much less of a spectacle than the traditional Major League Baseball Draft, it provides front offices the unique ability to acquire Major League-ready talent without having to shell out expensive contracts or part with valuable prospect capital. 

Typically, eight to 12 players are selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but only four or five stay with their new teams for the entire season. For example, in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, 15 players were selected. Yet, only six (Thaddeus Ward, Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, Blake Sabol, Mason Englert, and Kevin Kelly) stayed at the big-league level all season.

Of the six players listed, Noda (a first baseman for the Oakland Athletics) and Kelly (a relief pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays) were the best of the bunch, generating 2.0 and 1.2 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs, respectively. Most players selected in the Rule 5 Draft are corner infielders or outfielders and relief pitchers, and, interestingly enough, those are two of the Twins' most significant positions of need.

The Twins have not taken a player in the Rule 5 Draft since selecting Tyler Kinley in 2017. In a normal offseason, it would be fair to assume the Twins will yet again pass on making a Rule 5 selection, but self-imposed payroll restrictions could propel the Twins into making their pick in nearly seven years. 

So, which specific players should the Twins target in this year's Rule 5 Draft? Let's begin by venturing down South, to Jacksonville, Florida.

Troy Johnston
Johnston, 26, is a left-handed throwing and hitting first baseman/outfielder, selected by the Marlins in the 17th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Gonzaga University. 

Now, one might ask themselves, "Why would the Twins take another left-handed hitter at these positions, when Alex Kirilloff is on the roster?" Although this is a reasonable question, the reason is that due to injuries, Kirilloff has long been more of an idea or concept rather than a player the Twins can rely on going forward.

With that in mind, it might be in the Twins' best interest to find a young, cheap, consistent left-handed hitter who fits Kirilloff's mold, and Johnston has the potential to be exactly that. To further push this idea, here are Johnston's numbers between Double and Triple-A during the 2023 MiLB season:

• .307/.399/.549 (.948), 512 AB, 157 hits, 26 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 18.3 K%, 10.0 BB%, .234 ISO, 143 wRC+

Johnston generated elite offensive numbers between Double and Triple A, while stealing 24 bases, showing signs of potentially being a rare five-tool first baseman.

Johnston didn't play the outfield in 2023, but could play both corner outfield spots at the highest level, as that is where he played in college at Gonzaga and lower minor-league levels. If Kirilloff is healthy and able to produce as the Twins' first baseman in 2024, Johnston could slide into the role Joey Gallo had during the 2023 season, spending time at first base, designated hitter, and both corner outfield spots--while costing nearly $10 million less than Gallo did. 

If the Twins were to select Johnston, he could instantly slot in as a cheap insurance policy for the oft-injured Kirilloff, while competing with fellow left-handed corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and switch-hitting first baseman/designated hitter Yunior Severino for the final bench role on the Twins' 26-man roster.

If Johnston performs poorly during Spring Training or is outperformed by Larnach, Gordon, Severino, or a healthy Kirilloff, the Twins could return him to the Marlins or trade him to a team with a sudden need for that kind of profile.

Johnston is arguably the best position player available in this year's Rule 5 Draft, and if he were to be available when the Twins are on the board, it would make great sense for them to consider selecting the intriguing prospect.

Blaine Crim
Crim, 26, is a right-handed hitting first baseman and designated hitter, selected by the Rangers in the 19th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Mississippi College.

Much like Johnston, Crim, an older prospect, finds himself unprotected after an admirable 2023 season in which he put up the following numbers:

• .289/.385/.506 (.891), 494 AB, 143 hits, 22 home runs, seven stolen bases, 18.4 K%, 12.2 BB%, .217 ISO, 114 wRC+

Crim possesses the ability to get on base at a sufficient rate while hitting for power, which is the perfect skillset for a player who fits the mold of a backup first baseman and offensive utility player.

Despite playing 851 of the 902 innings (94%) he spent in the field at first base with Triple-A Round Rock, Crim also played 51 innings at third base. If the Twins were to select Crim in the Rule 5 Draft, he would likely compete with Severino and a potential free-agent signee for the role utility player Donovan Solano filled during the 2023 season. 

Contending with Severino, who has been a part of the Twins organization since 2017, would be a daunting task for Crim. Even so, it might be in the Twins' best interest to bring him in for his offensive upside and potential to platoon with the left-handed hitting Kirilloff at first base. 

Crim is more likely to be available than Johnston when they make their first selection in the Rule 5 Draft, and with the team needing a right-handed hitter, taking a flier on Crim could make sense for the (presently Solano-less) Twins. 

Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa
The Twins initially selected Hoopii-Tuionetoa in the 16th round of the 2018 MLB Draft, but they didn't sign him. Later, he was selected and signed by the Rangers after being taken in the 30th round of the 2019 Draft out of Pierce College.

Beyond his past connection to the Twins, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's pitch mix (headlined by a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a knockout slider) is exactly the type of profile the Twins' front office values and prioritizes when attempting to acquire bullpen talent.

Of the players mentioned, Hoopii-Tuionetoa feels like the most apparent selection the Twins (who need high-velocity talent at the back end of their bullpen) could make, but there is one caveat: He has yet to pitch beyond High A. Though he hasn't pitched at the upper levels, though, Hoopii-Tuionetoa put up relatively inspiring numbers with the High-A Hickory Crawdads:

• 11 2/3 IP, 1.54 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 95.2 LOB%

Hoopii-Tuionetoa's 10.0 K/9 and 95.2% LOB% would play exceptionally well, but his home-run rates at the High-A is cause for concern over whether he could perform adequately at the Major League level. Despite demonstrating some obvious weaknesses, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's potential was on full display at the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out 10 hitters over 9 2/3 scoreless innings pitched.

Regardless, similarly to Johnston and Crim, it would make sense for the Twins to bring Hoopii-Tuionetoa to Spring Training and have him compete with fellow back end-of-the-bullpen candidates Matt Canterino, Jorge Alcala, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Brent Headrick for the Twins eighth and final bullpen spot.

If Hoopii-Tuionetoa is outperformed, the Twins could return him to the Rangers, with the only penalty being the team losing $50,000, which is a loss even the cost-cutting Twins could afford.

CJ Van Eyk
Van Eyk, 25, is a right-handed pitcher selected by the Blue Jays in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of Florida State University. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2021--a unique proposition in this group, as (unlike the overpowering Hoopii-Tuionetoa) he is a lower-velocity finesse pitcher who sports one of the best curveballs in Minor League Baseball.

To further illustrate Van Eyk's potential as a Major League relief pitcher, here are his numbers between Rookie Ball, Single-A, and his time with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats:

• 12 G, 34 1/3 IP, 33 strikeouts, 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 77.3% LOB%

Admittedly, Van Eyk's numbers could be more inspiring. Still, due to the small sample size, it's important not to extrapolate too heavily (whether positive or negative) from the 34 1/3 post-Tommy John innings between three Minor League levels he pitched in 2023. 

Van Eyk projects more as a potential back-end starter than as a relief pitcher, but there is reason to believe he could fulfill the same swingman role Simeon Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder occupied for the Twins during parts of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder will be capable of cheaply filling that role again in 2024, but what is appealing about Van Eyk is his potential to progress beyond a stretch reliever role and join Kody Funderburk and Alcala as potentially stellar relief options in the Twins' bullpen hierarchy for the longer term. 

Other Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players the Twins Could Consider Selecting: Justin Slaten, Tanner Burns, Nasim Nuñez, Hudson Haskin, Kohl Franklin.

Though contending teams are less likely to select players in the Rule 5 Draft, it could make sense for the cost-cutting Twins to make their first selection since drafting Kinley in 2017. Although selecting a first baseman/outfielder who provides a similar skillset as Gallo or Solano makes sense, they are most likely to select a young, cost-controlled relief pitching option like Hoopii-Tuionetoa or Van Eyk.

Who do you like as a target for the Twins in this free talent draft next week? Should they make a selection, or pass? Let's weigh the options together.

Should the Twins select a player in the Rule 5 Draft? Do any of the players mentioned stand out? Comment below.