Analyzing the Twins' Replacement Options for Sonny Gray

[Hunter McCall]

Replacing a 5 WAR pitcher is easier said than done. The Twins must do just that by replacing Sonny Gray in 2024. What are their options?
 

Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray enjoyed a career-resurging year in the last year of his contract for the Twins this season, posting his lowest career FIP (2.83) and his lowest ERA since 2015 (2.79) while striking out 183 batters over 184 innings pitched. With the 33-year-old Gray set to become a free agent, how can the Minnesota Twins replace him in their rotation?

Re-sign Gray
The first option to explore would be to bring back Gray on a new contract. Assuming Gray declines the qualifying offer, which sits at $20.325M, Gray is set to hit the open market. In his two years with the Twins, Gray was a very productive starter, posting a 3.40 FIP in 2022 before his all-star 2023 season. With the addition of his sweeper, which he threw over 20% of the time and produced a .097 opponent batting average, Gray was able to put together arguably his best season to date in 2023.

Re-signing Gray may seem like a no-brainer based on the information outlined above. However, pitchers Sonny Gray’s age, coming off career years, rarely live up to the lofty contracts they will require on the open market.

To understand what Sonny Gray’s contract may look like, we can look back at the 2023 free agent class. Chris Bassitt was also coming off his age 33 season, and while he wasn’t nearly as productive as Gray was this year, he was still thought to be a near-the-top-of-the-rotation type pitcher. Bassitt signed with Toronto on a 3-year, $63M contract for an average of $21M per year. With that contract in mind, Gray will likely require between $25M and $30M annually. So, even if Gray wants to stay in Minnesota like he said he does, the Twins will have to pay a rather sizable contract to keep him here.

With Gray getting older and a relatively poor track record of pitchers approaching their mid-30s getting large free-agent contracts, is this the best solution for filling the critical rotation spot?

Promote From Within
It’s safe to say the Twins rotation has four spots securely locked up by Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack. While the options are limited, there are potential internal replacements the Twins could turn to for filling the 5th available rotation spot.

Louie Varland is the most apparent option for internal replacement. Varland started ten games for the Twins in 2023 but looked very hittable for the most part until he transitioned to the bullpen for the playoff push. Upon this transition, Varland saw his velocity tick up to near triple digits. He showed flashes of being a high-leverage bullpen arm, so will the Twins want to shift him back to the rotation or continue to build on what they may have found at the end of the season?

Josh Winder is the only other internal fit we could see unless the Twins want to be bold and promote a prospect like David Festa right out of Spring Training. Still, with Winder’s ineffectiveness and Festa’s inexperience, both feel like unlikely solutions.

Free Agency
The last potential option is to sign a pitcher in free agency. Some appealing names on the market that could come in and fill the void left by losing Gray. While it is hard to expect the production that Gray provided in 2023, there are plenty of names the Twins could sign to become a number two starter and give them an excellent chance of winning any given night.

The pitchers set to become free agents this offseason that could provide a similar impact to Gray are Blake Snell (LHP, 31 years old), Aaron Nola (RHP, 31), Jordan Montgomery (LHP, 30), Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, 31), Lucas Giolito (RHP, 29), and Jack Flaherty (RHP, 28). The Twins could also pursue one of the Japanese arms set to make the trip to the MLB, but there are many more unknowns and risks with those contracts, which may cause the Twins to get outbid by a larger market team.

Replacing Sonny Gray’s spot in the rotation should be at the top of the priority list for Derek Falvey and Thad Lavine this offseason. How they choose to do so remains to be seen.

How would you prefer the Minnesota Twins fill the vacant rotation spot? Let me know! Go, Twins!

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

Trading makes the most sense in my opinion, and it’s certainly something the front office has a lot of experience with

[Fatbat]

I was just going thru the FA list of SP while enjoying my deathwish coffee. After careful consideration,  I would try like hell to sign Jordan Montgomery to a 4 year contract with a team option for years 5 and 6. He will be 31 next month but has only 755 IP in his MLB career so he is smack dab in his prime and fresh off a world series championship. What will he cost? Some where around $100M? If I were in the FO, I would offer $75m over 4 years plus the 2 option years which could send it well over $100M. A possible bargain if he continues to be as consistent as he has been!

[LewFordLives]

If one assumes the payroll will be about $150 million, then there is room to sign someone at an average annual value of $20-$25 million, but there would be nothing left for a center fielder or other depth pieces. If they pursue a starter on the free agent market, then I think it's more likely they sign a second tier type (Maeda???). As someone else mentioned above, I think it's more likely they are aggressive on the trade market.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think the only way to replace a 5.0 WAR pitcher next year is to trade for someone good and get a little lucky when he has some real growth.  (Like a Pablo Lopez)  As much as I like Gray, he’s unlikely to duplicate this year’s success while a year older.  The young guys have potential, but none of them are likely producing that yet.  The free agents, perhaps a couple might to that, but I don’t think we are going to sign any of them that are going to be in the $25-30M range.  

That being said, with the floor being as high as it appears to be in the Twins rotation, it may not be necessary to directly replace it with one player.  A little growth from many along with someone who could be described as “solid” might be enough.  

My personal vote is to sign Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez if we can get it done without totally breaking the bank.  Either of them gives us a change of pace lefty in the rotation and both have the potential to be very good for a few years.  

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Trading makes the most sense in my opinion, and it’s certainly something the front office has a lot of experience with

Yes, I love the possibility of trading. The Twins have more than enough experience and assets to go acquire guys like Glasnow, Burnes, or Bieber. There’s so many options on the trade market!

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think the only way to replace a 5.0 WAR pitcher next year is to trade for someone good and get a little lucky when he has some real growth.  (Like a Pablo Lopez)  As much as I like Gray, he’s unlikely to duplicate this year’s success while a year older.  The young guys have potential, but none of them are likely producing that yet.  The free agents, perhaps a couple might to that, but I don’t think we are going to sign any of them that are going to be in the $25-30M range.  

That being said, with the floor being as high as it appears to be in the Twins rotation, it may not be necessary to directly replace it with one player.  A little growth from many along with someone who could be described as “solid” might be enough.  

My personal vote is to sign Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez if we can get it done without totally breaking the bank.  Either of them gives us a change of pace lefty in the rotation and both have the potential to be very good for a few years.  

I do like a lot of those names on the free agent market. I also like making a trade as a possible avenue. Great points!

[Hunter McCall]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

If one assumes the payroll will be about $150 million, then there is room to sign someone at an average annual value of $20-$25 million, but there would be nothing left for a center fielder or other depth pieces. If they pursue a starter on the free agent market, then I think it's more likely they sign a second tier type (Maeda???). As someone else mentioned above, I think it's more likely they are aggressive on the trade market.

Agreed, I think the front office has shown a knack for acquiring talent on the trade market. I do think this free agency class has some intriguing names that the Twins could pursue though!

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I was just going thru the FA list of SP while enjoying my deathwish coffee. After careful consideration,  I would try like hell to sign Jordan Montgomery to a 4 year contract with a team option for years 5 and 6. He will be 31 next month but has only 755 IP in his MLB career so he is smack dab in his prime and fresh off a world series championship. What will he cost? Some where around $100M? If I were in the FO, I would offer $75m over 4 years plus the 2 option years which could send it well over $100M. A possible bargain if he continues to be as consistent as he has been!

I like Jordan Montgomery as well! That’s not a bad plan if the Twins can win a bidding war. He may have his share of suitors, but he’s not a bad option for the Twins to throw money at!

[pierre75275]

I think they resign Kenta M and then take a chance on someone like Frankie Montas.

If they bring in two regular starters, it pry means Varland is in the pen.

[SteveLV]

Re-sign Mr. Gray.

3 years $65M, or thereabouts.

If he only wants to play 2 years, $45M.

Git'R Done.

[rv78]

My guess is if they don't trade and these 2 guys are still available, they'll resign Maeda and add Giolito. They'd be the two cheapest options FA wise. I don't see them changing their previous course and becoming big spenders on pitching in Free Agency. They've never done it before, they won't start now. Package Polanco or Kepler or both and either Miranda or Larnach with maybe another Celestino/ChrisWilliams/KeirseyJr type player if it's a trade. 

[strumdatjag]

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like the real deal.  Mid-90s fastball with a nice splitter.  This signing would carry less risk than this article would lead us to believe about Japanese players.   The Nishioka debacle may have many here snake-bit.  But he is not representative of the level of talent with the best players in Nippon. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Re-sign Mr. Gray.

3 years $65M, or thereabouts.

If he only wants to play 2 years, $45M.

Git'R Done.

Not enough $$!

Somebody would pay him $52M plus for 2 years……….almost certainly, he gets offered $70M for 3 years.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

My guess is if they don't trade and these 2 guys are still available, they'll resign Maeda and add Giolito. They'd be the two cheapest options FA wise. I don't see them changing their previous course and becoming big spenders on pitching in Free Agency. They've never done it before, they won't start now. Package Polanco or Kepler or both and either Miranda or Larnach with maybe another Celestino/ChrisWilliams/KeirseyJr type player if it's a trade. 

Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games.

Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland.

If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline.

BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!

[Aerodeliria]

4 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like the real deal.  Mid-90s fastball with a nice splitter.  This signing would carry less risk than this article would lead us to believe about Japanese players.   The Nishioka debacle may have many here snake-bit.  But he is not representative of the level of talent with the best players in Nippon. 

Nishioka was not a superstar in Japan. He really had only the one good season. He was fast and bounced a bunch of hits off the turf that year, but he really never was able to reproduce those results, so in a sense, he turned out to be quite a gamble for the Twins. There are PLENTY of very good pitchers in Japan. (I was almost willing to make a guarantee that Senga would do well on the Mets. He was so tough with men on base here in Japan.)

Due to many factors, I wasn't able to watch all that much Japanese baseball this year, but did see some games from the Tigers/Buffaloes series. There was some very good pitching in that series. (Hanshin Tigers! Fulei, fulei, fulei, fulei!)

This is all to say, I agree with you 100%,

[Nashvilletwin]

Lots of talk about signing a free agent or making a trade.  The FO could essentially combine those two strategies by signing a top FA and then pay for him by trading Polanco or Farmer or, I guess, even Kepler.  The point is that we have trade capital that can also raise cash.  Given our infield depth, the FO shouldn’t think twice about trading Polanco if the cash that deal saves us allows us to stretch in free agency for the equivalent of a solid #2 innings eating starter.

[UK Twin]

This may be an unpopular opinion but I really wouldn't re-sign Gray unless he chose to accept the QO. I'm very wary of offering a SP well into their 30's a multi year contract. Gray's been a fantastic SP for the Twins but chances are he'll only regress from here and he deserves his pay day so thank him for his efforts and move on. I'd definitely look to the trade market to replace him. Polanco is an obvious trade chip. Kepler is a keep for me. 

[UK Twin]

9 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like the real deal.  Mid-90s fastball with a nice splitter.  This signing would carry less risk than this article would lead us to believe about Japanese players.   The Nishioka debacle may have many here snake-bit.  But he is not representative of the level of talent with the best players in Nippon. 

Unfortunately he's likely out of both our price range and market. Sounds like he wants to play for a big market team. 

[UK Twin]

Just now, UK Twin said:

Unfortunately he's likely out of both our price range and market. Sounds like he wants to play for a big market team. 

 

[rv78]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games.

Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland.

If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline.

BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!

Only problem with your idea is that this FO won't spend that kind of money for a front line starting pitcher. As I said, they never have and doubt they ever will. Giolito is a perfect fit for what they do, he'll come at a major discount and if he turns his career around back to his once former self they'll look like geniuses. Which is what they care about since they are the smartest guys in the room..

[Jshubitz]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games.

Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland.

If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline.

BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!

Although I agree with keeping Louie in the pen and how signing Giolito would probably make our team worse, $15 mil a year for an ageing Maeda whose on the downfall of his career is outrages. The front office should do whatever it takes to retain Sonny; and who knows, he said money isn't the only factor for him, so maybe we could get a little "hometown" discount?

[EGFTShaw]

I am loathe, and that isn't even strong enough word, to venture into the FA market with the exception of our FAs.

I know a lot of people are high on a couple of FAs out there, Jordan or Eduardo who seem to fascinate many, I've read rankings of these pitchers in a couple of different articles, and I am not enamored.

I'd rather go with our youngsters vs any of the non-Twins FAs out there.  We seemed to be very shortsighted when it comes to the Twins having luck signing FA pitchers.

I find it amusing that everyone is assuming that Gray will regress, and other pitchers will magically improve.

Of course, Gray's HR rate will regress but he has been a 3.00-3.50 ERA pitcher.

Also don't necessarily make assumptions on the payroll.  We would never have guessed that the Twins payroll would ever go over $150M, yet here we are.

I more open to trading for a pitcher than signing one of the non-Twin FA pitchers.  But even that has been mixed over the years.

So, I am clearly in the SonnyG house even if it is for more $$s.  I stated in another article, that the Twins and Gray will have to compromise between length and $$s.

I think the owners and the FO will make the best decision for the Twins to compete this year.

[Hunter McCall]

16 hours ago, rv78 said:

My guess is if they don't trade and these 2 guys are still available, they'll resign Maeda and add Giolito. They'd be the two cheapest options FA wise. I don't see them changing their previous course and becoming big spenders on pitching in Free Agency. They've never done it before, they won't start now. Package Polanco or Kepler or both and either Miranda or Larnach with maybe another Celestino/ChrisWilliams/KeirseyJr type player if it's a trade. 

I do like Giolito on a potential bounce back contract! It sounds likely that they are active on the trade market to find his replacement! Let's hope the front office is as hungry as we are!

[mikelink45]

I am not excited about pursuing older players after their career year.  We use that term because it is an outlier.  Career years seldom repeat.  Gray is 98 - 85  career with a 3.74 ERA.  I looked at his BR page and could not find three consecutive productive years like the last two.  In fact both MN years have been his best - ask the Yankees about their experiment with Gray.  

I sign him if the price is right and for one year only. 

[Hunter McCall]

14 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like the real deal.  Mid-90s fastball with a nice splitter.  This signing would carry less risk than this article would lead us to believe about Japanese players.   The Nishioka debacle may have many here snake-bit.  But he is not representative of the level of talent with the best players in Nippon. 

I agree, I think Yamamoto has ace potential. I also think that the big market teams (sounds like the Mets are all in) will run the price tag up and out of the Twins willing spending range on a somewhat unknown arm. I like to hope the Twins find themselves in the thick of things, but I'm not overly optimistic they'll be willing to pay what will be required.

[Hunter McCall]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not enough $$!

Somebody would pay him $52M plus for 2 years……….almost certainly, he gets offered $70M for 3 years.

This is the unfortunate truth as I outlined. History has shown that Sonny is likely to get paid this offseason and likely for more money than the Twins will be willing to spend.

[Hunter McCall]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games.

Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland.

If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline.

BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!

I wouldn't compare Chris Archer to Lucas Giolito. While I agree that Giolito is risky since he's coming off a poor season, he is only going to be 29 and has much more recent success than the 33-year-old Archer had when he came to the Twins. In 2022, Giolito had a 4.06 FIP (not great but not awful) and he was a Cy Young vote receiver in 2019, 2020, and 2021. I think there's still a lot left in the tank if he finds the right situation. We also have to remember he is coming from a very dysfunctional situation in Chicago (before spending the rest of the season with the Guardians and Angels so not a huge improvement in functionality). Just look at the regression experienced across the board by White Sox players over the last few years. Does he just need stability? Not making excuses for him, but I do think there's a lot left in the tank for a guy who at one point was a top prospect in all of baseball and has shown he can get it done at a high level.

I also have the opinion that the Twins should leave Varland in the bullpen. I think that's where he looked like he's going to make the biggest impact at the MLB level. I think it would be wise to add a guy they feel comfortable with so Varland can really take on that role the way Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jhoan Duran have. I think he has high-leverage ability out of the pen which is more upside than I see out of him as a starter. That's why I like your best option idea! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

[Hunter McCall]

10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Nishioka was not a superstar in Japan. He really had only the one good season. He was fast and bounced a bunch of hits off the turf that year, but he really never was able to reproduce those results, so in a sense, he turned out to be quite a gamble for the Twins. There are PLENTY of very good pitchers in Japan. (I was almost willing to make a guarantee that Senga would do well on the Mets. He was so tough with men on base here in Japan.)

Due to many factors, I wasn't able to watch all that much Japanese baseball this year, but did see some games from the Tigers/Buffaloes series. There was some very good pitching in that series. (Hanshin Tigers! Fulei, fulei, fulei, fulei!)

This is all to say, I agree with you 100%,

I agree that Yamamoto has ace upside. I think he's the real deal and probably better than Senga. He's only 25, which will have big market teams drooling. I'm just not sure the Twins will be able to compete with them on a contract. However, the Twins have shown a willingness to express interest in international free agents, so maybe there's a chance. I just don't see it as the most likely solution.

[Hunter McCall]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lots of talk about signing a free agent or making a trade.  The FO could essentially combine those two strategies by signing a top FA and then pay for him by trading Polanco or Farmer or, I guess, even Kepler.  The point is that we have trade capital that can also raise cash.  Given our infield depth, the FO shouldn’t think twice about trading Polanco if the cash that deal saves us allows us to stretch in free agency for the equivalent of a solid #2 innings eating starter.

This is also true. The Twins may be willing to shed some cash in order to add more players. You're right that we could see a mixture of trade and FA signings. The Twins also have loads of prospect capital that is relatively close to major league ready. Would it make sense to sign a guy with high upside like Lucas Giolito or Jack Flaherty on a bounce back prove it style deal while also swinging a trade for a sure thing like Glasnow, Burnes, or Bieber? They've shown a willingness to give Bailey Ober work in AAA while they sort things out. Thank you for your comment! Thought provoking!