Analyzing the Twins' Replacement Options for Sonny Gray

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Trading makes the most sense in my opinion, and it’s certainly something the front office has a lot of experience with

Yes, I love the possibility of trading. The Twins have more than enough experience and assets to go acquire guys like Glasnow, Burnes, or Bieber. There’s so many options on the trade market!

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think the only way to replace a 5.0 WAR pitcher next year is to trade for someone good and get a little lucky when he has some real growth.  (Like a Pablo Lopez)  As much as I like Gray, he’s unlikely to duplicate this year’s success while a year older.  The young guys have potential, but none of them are likely producing that yet.  The free agents, perhaps a couple might to that, but I don’t think we are going to sign any of them that are going to be in the $25-30M range.  

That being said, with the floor being as high as it appears to be in the Twins rotation, it may not be necessary to directly replace it with one player.  A little growth from many along with someone who could be described as “solid” might be enough.  

My personal vote is to sign Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez if we can get it done without totally breaking the bank.  Either of them gives us a change of pace lefty in the rotation and both have the potential to be very good for a few years.  

I do like a lot of those names on the free agent market. I also like making a trade as a possible avenue. Great points!

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

If one assumes the payroll will be about $150 million, then there is room to sign someone at an average annual value of $20-$25 million, but there would be nothing left for a center fielder or other depth pieces. If they pursue a starter on the free agent market, then I think it's more likely they sign a second tier type (Maeda???). As someone else mentioned above, I think it's more likely they are aggressive on the trade market.

Agreed, I think the front office has shown a knack for acquiring talent on the trade market. I do think this free agency class has some intriguing names that the Twins could pursue though!

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I was just going thru the FA list of SP while enjoying my deathwish coffee. After careful consideration,  I would try like hell to sign Jordan Montgomery to a 4 year contract with a team option for years 5 and 6. He will be 31 next month but has only 755 IP in his MLB career so he is smack dab in his prime and fresh off a world series championship. What will he cost? Some where around $100M? If I were in the FO, I would offer $75m over 4 years plus the 2 option years which could send it well over $100M. A possible bargain if he continues to be as consistent as he has been!

I like Jordan Montgomery as well! That’s not a bad plan if the Twins can win a bidding war. He may have his share of suitors, but he’s not a bad option for the Twins to throw money at!

16 hours ago, rv78 said:

My guess is if they don't trade and these 2 guys are still available, they'll resign Maeda and add Giolito. They'd be the two cheapest options FA wise. I don't see them changing their previous course and becoming big spenders on pitching in Free Agency. They've never done it before, they won't start now. Package Polanco or Kepler or both and either Miranda or Larnach with maybe another Celestino/ChrisWilliams/KeirseyJr type player if it's a trade. 

I do like Giolito on a potential bounce back contract! It sounds likely that they are active on the trade market to find his replacement! Let's hope the front office is as hungry as we are!

14 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks like the real deal.  Mid-90s fastball with a nice splitter.  This signing would carry less risk than this article would lead us to believe about Japanese players.   The Nishioka debacle may have many here snake-bit.  But he is not representative of the level of talent with the best players in Nippon. 

I agree, I think Yamamoto has ace potential. I also think that the big market teams (sounds like the Mets are all in) will run the price tag up and out of the Twins willing spending range on a somewhat unknown arm. I like to hope the Twins find themselves in the thick of things, but I'm not overly optimistic they'll be willing to pay what will be required.

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not enough $$!

Somebody would pay him $52M plus for 2 years……….almost certainly, he gets offered $70M for 3 years.

This is the unfortunate truth as I outlined. History has shown that Sonny is likely to get paid this offseason and likely for more money than the Twins will be willing to spend.

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games.

Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland.

If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline.

BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!

I wouldn't compare Chris Archer to Lucas Giolito. While I agree that Giolito is risky since he's coming off a poor season, he is only going to be 29 and has much more recent success than the 33-year-old Archer had when he came to the Twins. In 2022, Giolito had a 4.06 FIP (not great but not awful) and he was a Cy Young vote receiver in 2019, 2020, and 2021. I think there's still a lot left in the tank if he finds the right situation. We also have to remember he is coming from a very dysfunctional situation in Chicago (before spending the rest of the season with the Guardians and Angels so not a huge improvement in functionality). Just look at the regression experienced across the board by White Sox players over the last few years. Does he just need stability? Not making excuses for him, but I do think there's a lot left in the tank for a guy who at one point was a top prospect in all of baseball and has shown he can get it done at a high level.

I also have the opinion that the Twins should leave Varland in the bullpen. I think that's where he looked like he's going to make the biggest impact at the MLB level. I think it would be wise to add a guy they feel comfortable with so Varland can really take on that role the way Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jhoan Duran have. I think he has high-leverage ability out of the pen which is more upside than I see out of him as a starter. That's why I like your best option idea! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Nishioka was not a superstar in Japan. He really had only the one good season. He was fast and bounced a bunch of hits off the turf that year, but he really never was able to reproduce those results, so in a sense, he turned out to be quite a gamble for the Twins. There are PLENTY of very good pitchers in Japan. (I was almost willing to make a guarantee that Senga would do well on the Mets. He was so tough with men on base here in Japan.)

Due to many factors, I wasn't able to watch all that much Japanese baseball this year, but did see some games from the Tigers/Buffaloes series. There was some very good pitching in that series. (Hanshin Tigers! Fulei, fulei, fulei, fulei!)

This is all to say, I agree with you 100%,

I agree that Yamamoto has ace upside. I think he's the real deal and probably better than Senga. He's only 25, which will have big market teams drooling. I'm just not sure the Twins will be able to compete with them on a contract. However, the Twins have shown a willingness to express interest in international free agents, so maybe there's a chance. I just don't see it as the most likely solution.

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lots of talk about signing a free agent or making a trade.  The FO could essentially combine those two strategies by signing a top FA and then pay for him by trading Polanco or Farmer or, I guess, even Kepler.  The point is that we have trade capital that can also raise cash.  Given our infield depth, the FO shouldn’t think twice about trading Polanco if the cash that deal saves us allows us to stretch in free agency for the equivalent of a solid #2 innings eating starter.

This is also true. The Twins may be willing to shed some cash in order to add more players. You're right that we could see a mixture of trade and FA signings. The Twins also have loads of prospect capital that is relatively close to major league ready. Would it make sense to sign a guy with high upside like Lucas Giolito or Jack Flaherty on a bounce back prove it style deal while also swinging a trade for a sure thing like Glasnow, Burnes, or Bieber? They've shown a willingness to give Bailey Ober work in AAA while they sort things out. Thank you for your comment! Thought provoking!

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

This may be an unpopular opinion but I really wouldn't re-sign Gray unless he chose to accept the QO. I'm very wary of offering a SP well into their 30's a multi year contract. Gray's been a fantastic SP for the Twins but chances are he'll only regress from here and he deserves his pay day so thank him for his efforts and move on. I'd definitely look to the trade market to replace him. Polanco is an obvious trade chip. Kepler is a keep for me. 

I agree with this 100%. I love what Sonny did for the Twins, but at some point you have to thank him and move on. I think with the money it will require to bring him back at his age, the best idea is to move on now. I also agree with your thoughts on the trade market. I love Jorge Polanco, but just like Luis Arraez, if the price is right, it may be time to move on in order to add in places of need. I think Kepler provides more value to the Twins right now than Polanco does as the Twins have a plethora of infield talent both in the high minors and on the major league roster. Great thought!