What a Year for Matt Wallner

[Cody Pirkl]

Matt Wallner had a frustrating postseason debut in 2023, and many fans were rightfully disappointed. It’s worth noting that despite a poor stretch of five games, Wallner should have established himself as an exciting part of the 2024 lineup.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

Matt Wallner is a great story, being one of several native Minnesotans on the Twins roster in 2023. Many fans have been rooting for him since being drafted by the Twins 39th overall in 2019. His debut in 2022 left a lot of questions about his ability to hold up against MLB-level pitching. 2023 was far from perfect, but headed into 2024, Wallner should have fans feeling a bit better.

Fans hate strikeouts. Twins fans especially do after watching the home team strike out a record number of times in 2023. They’ve also been subject to long stretches of hollow at-bats by hitters such as Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo in recent years, which has turned them particularly sour to whiffs.

Strikeouts are a part of Matt Wallner’s game; there’s no way around it. Even in Triple-A, he struck out just a shade under 30% of the time in 2023. His 31.5% rate improved from the 38.5% he posted in limited action in 2022. The question with players like Matt Wallner isn’t whether they will strike out. It’s whether they make the strikeouts worth it. In 2023, Matt Wallner showed that he can make the trade-off worthwhile.

In 254 plate appearances, Wallner slashed .249/.370/.507, good for 44% above the league average hitter. He walked 11% of the time and was on a 30+ homer pace for an entire season. Max Kepler had the lowest strikeout rate on the Twins, with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and Wallner outpaced him in OPS .877 to .816. Matt Wallner’s 2023 is a prime example of how a high strikeout rate can be worth it.

More encouraging even than Wallner cutting his strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023 is the fact that pitchers seemed to find a hole in his swing midseason, and Wallner was able to adjust back. The strikeouts became a focal point when Wallner went 0-16 with eight strikeouts from September 5-10, causing some to wonder whether we were watching things play out similarly to Trevor Larnach earlier in the season. Wallner took a day off to make some adjustments and finished the season, slashing .354/.456/.646 with a 28% strikeout rate.

As a hitter who tries to wait out the pitcher to make a mistake, the strikeouts go hand in hand with the power and walks. Anything close that he doesn’t want to hit, he’ll spit on. Sometimes, he’ll miss pitches in the zone with two strikes, leading to higher strikeout rates. It’s an approach that could become a lot easier to accept if the Twins don’t have such a strikeout-heavy team in 2024. 

Joey Gallo and his 42.8% strikeout rate will be off the roster next season. Michael A. Taylor and his 33.5% strikeout rate may be as well. With fewer all-or-nothing hitters in the lineup regularly, Wallner should be a better complementary hitter in the Twins lineup, especially when contact specialists such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin debut. 

It’s still a limited number of at-bats for Wallner in his career, but the high ceiling he’s shown, along with the ability to adjust, should be very encouraging. He may always be prone to stretches of low points to go along with the highs, but the hope is that as he develops, he becomes more consistent and continues to be able to adjust back to opposing pitchers.

Five games in October shouldn’t warp fans' view of Matt Wallner. He had an unbelievable year, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have a chance at an everyday role in 2024. Is he due for regression? Could he possibly even improve upon his impressive 2023? Let us know below!

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[strumdatjag]

He seems to offer decent defense too.   Looks like he should be a fixture at a corner OF position. 

[Karbo]

I can live with the K's if he can pound out 30 or more HR's and drive in 60 or more runs. I would hope he can continue to adjust and bring his rate down some though. The frustrating thing for me this past season was seeing so many pitches right down broadway taken for a 3rd strike. I know hitters can get  fooled but it sure seemed like it happened a lot. Give Wallner a full season to see how he adjusts. Then see if he can hit lefties as well.

[mikelink45]

 I am always excited to see a Minnesota player - all the sports teams in all the leagues play on fan sympathy - we are your team - then the off season comes and where do they live?  This reminds me of Hrbek who gave such joy.  Just as Winfield, Molitor, Mauer, and Morris both performed and brought a Minnesota attitude.  Then there are players like Oliva who came and stayed.  It is a pleasure.

Varland adds another level like Dave Goltz, Jerry Kindall, Jerry Koosman, Jim Eisenreich, Caleb Thielbar,  and Glen Perkins.  According to Twins Trivia 32 Minnesotans have been Twins. 

The Twins more than the Vikings have had a big MN presence.  The Vikings gave up on one of the best - Adam Thielen and they have had others play a big role. Of course will all the gear and all the substitutions only a few are recognizable.  

The Lakers (who actually played in a city with Lakes)  started out with a Minnesota Hall of Fame - Mikan, Mikkelson, Joe Hutton, Howie Schultz, Bob Pollard and Whitey Skoog.  Loved it. 

It was a rule in the NBA that a team could forfeit a first round pick to obtain a player within a 50 mile radius.  The Lakers took advantage of this, but so did others.  It really created a home team feeling.

In the NHL there are 38 Minnesota players.  If you want to be overwhelmed look at the number of Minnesota born players who have been on the North Stars or Wild. 

Even the Gophers seem to lack the home town feeling for me these days.

Forgive the nostalgia. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another big asset for Wallner, not mentioned in the article, is his arm strength. This would make Wallner a much better fit in right field.

[FlyingFinn]

One of Wallner's best attributes in the minors was adjusting to each level. He seemed to start out terribly slow at each level but would figure it out and dominate. Up to the next level and the same thing would happen. That's what I'm counting on from Wallner in the majors as well, adjusting to pitchers and being a good player. 

[ashbury]

51 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Another big asset for Wallner, not mentioned in the article, is his arm strength. This would make Wallner a much better fit in right field.

True.  And if RF is properly covered already, as it is, there's nothing wrong with throwing out an arrogant runner at the plate from LF too.

[JD-TWINS]

Ultimately, he plays right at 6’5” & as a former pitcher. Needs to quit trying “to impress” with his arm & make solid plays - hitting the cut-off when applicable!!!

He’s got a big swing but 27-28% K’s is plenty - can’t be 35% plus. Needs to improve K% of through ‘24 season.

If he can hit .255 plus out of the 7th spot in the line-up & drive in 65-70 runs with 25 plus HR, he’s at the floor for our every day guy in right.

He’s got potential to have 30 or more doubles & 35 HR…..potential budding star!

[Doctor Gast]

Wallner has the tools to become an all-star RFer. I hate the go for a homer every AB philosophy & the SOs, FOs & pop-ups that follows. That philosophy killed Sano's career and Popkin said he was going to work with Gallo to change his 2 strike approach, looks like FO way won out.

I rather Wallner hit fewer HRs if that revolutionize his SOs. Finally Wallner's defense developement is coming along if he ditches the FO philosophy that'd further advance his development

[gman]

So far in 270 at bats he has 16 homers and 51 RBI's or extending that out in 540 at bats, a full seasons worth, 32 homers and 102 RBI's. That would be good. Of course he would also have over 200 strikeouts, but an 842 OPS would also look nice. He has enough at bats that pitchers and coaches will have to really work to find more weaknesses in his swing then he has shown so far. Let's hope they don't.

[TopGunn#22]

He's a part of the Twins future.  Until he isn't.  You've got Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins on the fast track.  There are a couple other young OF prospects as well.  Right now, Wallner's value has never been higher.  The mere idea that his value is equal to Juan Soto's in BBTV is amazing.  

San Diego is going to have to blow it up this off season.  They will lose the N.L. Cy Young Award winner in Blake Snell.  They will lose ace closer Josh Hader.  They can't trade Manny Machado, his contract is atrocious.  The only guy left standing will be Fernando Tatis (and Machado).  I'd trade Wallner, Winder and Headrick for one season of Juan Soto.  I know I'm the wet blanket in the delirium of Matt Wallner's season.  But we're talking Juan Soto.  With reinforcements coming that will probably be better than Wallner.  

You want a World series Championship?  Swing for the fences.  

[Fatbat]

@gman he is a smart kid that seems to be able to make adjustments. Its a chess match! If 2024 is in line with your extrapolations, thats allstar quality if the K rate is below 27%!

[KBJ1]

Wallner makes Kepler redundant. Time to trade Max for a solid bullpen guy.

[DocBauer]

What I really like about Wallner is his ability to recognize the zone, and to make adjustments. He's not some crazy free swinger up there. Much like fellow rookie Julien, he sits on pitches he doesn't like, or that he feels are out of the zone, and waits for something good to swing it, all the while content with a BB if they're going to give it to him. It's being that patient, looking for that good pitch, refusing to give in to bad pitches, taking those walks, that will lead to a number of K's. But it also leads to big hits, powerful hits, and a bunch of BB for and good OB ability.

But as the OP alluded to, I've watched him make adjustments, game to game, even within a game, looking for something different, or literally hold up or change the plane of his swing to make solid contact with a pitch. 

He's got all the ability in the world to be productive and downright dangerous. There will be some bad days, and some streaky weeks, but he's going to be very good for this team for some time. And the defense looks vastly improved to me. He'll probably move to RF with that cannon in the near future, but he's just fine for 2023 in LF with Kepler in right.

[TwinsDr2021]

If he can hit above .240 the K's don't bother me that much. But if his numbers start to resemble Gallo, I will be ready to see the next outfield prospect. Fingers crossed that he figured out something the last month plus of the season and didn't just do well because of mediocre pitching. Lets good Wallner!!!

[Mike Sixel]

If he hits and walks and plays D like he did, I don't care his outs are SOs and not weak ground outs. Not even a little. If he played a full year in LF, at the rate he did this year (unlikely), he's the 2nd best LFer in the majors in terms of fWAR. It was a great year for him, if only the FO had called him up and left him up earlier....

[RpR]

On 11/5/2023 at 1:21 PM, KBJ1 said:

Wallner makes Kepler redundant. Time to trade Max for a solid bullpen guy.

Wallner is not any where near, not even close , the fielder Kepler is, IF , he ever learn how to play fly balls so he  does not have to run like mad to catch an easy fly ball, he will in left for as long as he is with the Twins.

Only way he leaves is if he Joey Gallo's his BA.

[tony&rodney]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:25 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

He's a part of the Twins future.  Until he isn't.  You've got Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins on the fast track.  There are a couple other young OF prospects as well.  Right now, Wallner's value has never been higher.  The mere idea that his value is equal to Juan Soto's in BBTV is amazing.  

San Diego is going to have to blow it up this off season.  They will lose the N.L. Cy Young Award winner in Blake Snell.  They will lose ace closer Josh Hader.  They can't trade Manny Machado, his contract is atrocious.  The only guy left standing will be Fernando Tatis (and Machado).  I'd trade Wallner, Winder and Headrick for one season of Juan Soto.  I know I'm the wet blanket in the delirium of Matt Wallner's season.  But we're talking Juan Soto.  With reinforcements coming that will probably be better than Wallner.  

You want a World series Championship?  Swing for the fences.  

Soto is quite tempting, isn't he. I don't get a feel for how he fits into the outfield or with his teammates. That's ok.

The thing that is really attractive about Soto is that he posts, nearly all the time. Just put his name in the lineup for 160 games. I'm interested.