Varland As Closer

[Parfigliano]

Duran is an untamed adventure.  Kind of stuff that can go catastrophic in a short series.  Not a small sample size on this point.

Varland?

[Squirrel]

I’m not comfortable throwing Varland in a role he has never had. While he’s done well so far, he’s still new to being a RP. Let him settle into that for the rest of the season and leave it there. I don’t think the playoffs are time to experiment with making him a closer, but I really hope Duran refocuses and comes up firing strikes for strike outs.

[FlyingFinn]

I thought everyone was complaining how Varland gives up way too many homers, which is about the worst thing a closer can do.

[JD-TWINS]

Maybe in a Playoff Series going forward if Duran is spent. Interesting thought for ‘24 & beyond……the “bulldog” attitude fits a closer mentality.

With those 2 guys alternating the mental challenges of Closer with Jax complementing would be really something to see………..similar to the Reds Pen of ‘90…..nasty boys!

[Trov]

I would not throw Varland into the highest leverage roll when he has never been in it, unless you have little choice. Yes, in his very SSS of relief pitching he has done well, outside his one appearance against Mets with 2 solo shots.  That really is his issue is his HR he gives up.  It is possible, without looking deeper into his HR issue, giving up 1 HR ever 4 innings, he could be more effective as a relief guy.  Some guys when they reduce the pitch mix and increase effort for the 1 or 2 innings being asked they do better there, if the third or forth pitch is what they give up the HR on. 

Duran may be not as lights out as we want of late, but he still is the best option we have overall, and has the mentality to do the job.  Varland strikes out less, walks a few less, but ratio is about the same, but Varland gives up HR at a much higher rate. Do not be fooled by 4 good relief outings.  I still like Varland, but would not want to hand him the ball in a 1 run game in playoffs in 9th compared to Duran. 

[CRF]

Probably too early to think about doing that. Louie's got the stuff and the mentality to do it, and he's looked real good in relief so far in a very small sample size, but I don't know that I'm ready to throw him out there and close games yet. He's somewhat prone to giving up the long ball, which wouldn't play well in a closers role. I'd rather ride it out with Duran, even though he's struggling a little bit right now. He's our best option. 

[Rik19753]

While I agree with everyone that anointing Varland the closer would be premature, I don't necessarily think you can point to the long balls as the primary reason. Sure, he gave up a ton of HRs as a SP, but with the added velo we are talking about a completely different pitcher. Jax gave up more than 2.5 HRs/9 as a starter, now that number is under 1.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Maybe in a Playoff Series going forward if Duran is spent. Interesting thought for ‘24 & beyond……the “bulldog” attitude fits a closer mentality.

With those 2 guys alternating the mental challenges of Closer with Jax complementing would be really something to see………..similar to the Reds Pen of ‘90…..nasty boys!

Varland has been a very competent mid—to-back of the rotation starter, for ‘24 I’d like to see him in the rotation mix. Too quick for him to be permanently in the bullpen. Sands, Winder, Balazovic? Absolutely bullpen in ‘24

[wabene]

Love watching Louie attack. The guy can be a weapon for us this post-season, no doubt. But closer? No. The Twins will continue to play matchups anyway.

A great post-season for Varland will give him great confidence entering next season.... as a starter. He may gain some useful perspective as a reliever to help him improve as a starter going forward. Now if he goes through next season without improving from a number 4-5 type, then maybe the pen could be in his future. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Duran is an untamed adventure.  Kind of stuff that can go catastrophic in a short series.  Not a small sample size on this point.

Varland?

There may be pitchers better suited to the role. I certainly hadn't thought of Varland as a closer.

But I like the 'outside the box' thinking. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

While I agree with everyone that anointing Varland the closer would be premature, I don't necessarily think you can point to the long balls as the primary reason. Sure, he gave up a ton of HRs as a SP, but with the added velo we are talking about a completely different pitcher. Jax gave up more than 2.5 HRs/9 as a starter, now that number is under 1.

Also, an assumption would be that Varland would give up dingers to a squad that had been up once already or studying him for a few batters. The jump from 94-95 to 97-99 on the four-seam is big but the 91-93 cutter to go with it, makes him tough to feel good about hitting, if he’s only facing 3-5 of your guys at a time.

It’s intriguing.

The real attraction is that he throws his fastball the proper amount v. Duran. Varland is up around 60% while Duran is around 46%. 46% of your pitches - with 1/2 of them wildly high out of the zone does not do his fastball justice! He needs to throw for more strikes & more frequently! He’s still pitching like he’s a starter as a closer. Great curve - really good split - outstanding fastball…………gotta pitch to get ahead & not to look cool. Understand it’s gratifying fooling guys with the curve or to get a swing & miss on a splitter. Getting guys out is the job - 102-103Mph is flashy enough!!!

[jimbo92107]

I wouldn't do that, unless injuries forced my hand. Rather have Jax close, or Brock Stewart. Might even think about Maeda for closer - the man has no fear. Varland isn't accustomed to high-leverage relief. 

[IndianaTwin]

Not today, since he pitched yesterday, but they've got seven days to give it a try!

Well, they can't do it Monday, and they don't want to do it next Sunday, but they could still do something like Tuesday and Friday if they have the opportunity. I'm guessing Duran will throw no more than about two innings during the rest of the regular season. 

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

I would not throw Varland into the highest leverage roll when he has never been in it, unless you have little choice. Yes, in his very SSS of relief pitching he has done well, outside his one appearance against Mets with 2 solo shots.  That really is his issue is his HR he gives up.  It is possible, without looking deeper into his HR issue, giving up 1 HR ever 4 innings, he could be more effective as a relief guy.  Some guys when they reduce the pitch mix and increase effort for the 1 or 2 innings being asked they do better there, if the third or forth pitch is what they give up the HR on. 

Duran may be not as lights out as we want of late, but he still is the best option we have overall, and has the mentality to do the job.  Varland strikes out less, walks a few less, but ratio is about the same, but Varland gives up HR at a much higher rate. Do not be fooled by 4 good relief outings.  I still like Varland, but would not want to hand him the ball in a 1 run game in playoffs in 9th compared to Duran. 

Duran would be lights out if he could hit the plate.  Varland can hit the plate.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Also, an assumption would be that Varland would give up dingers to a squad that had been up once already or studying him for a few batters. The jump from 94-95 to 97-99 on the four-seam is big but the 91-93 cutter to go with it, makes him tough to feel good about hitting, if he’s only facing 3-5 of your guys at a time.

It’s intriguing.

The real attraction is that he throws his fastball the proper amount v. Duran. Varland is up around 60% while Duran is around 46%. 46% of your pitches - with 1/2 of them wildly high out of the zone does not do his fastball justice! He needs to throw for more strikes & more frequently! He’s still pitching like he’s a starter as a closer. Great curve - really good split - outstanding fastball…………gotta pitch to get ahead & not to look cool. Understand it’s gratifying fooling guys with the curve or to get a swing & miss on a splitter. Getting guys out is the job - 102-103Mph is flashy enough!!!

Like golf.  Drive for show.  Putt for dough.  Duran 102 fastball key word there ball. Varland 99 strike.

[Linus]

We do realize that Duran has been one of the top relievers in baseball for two years right?

[Parfigliano]

16 hours ago, Linus said:

We do realize that Duran has been one of the top relievers in baseball for two years right?

Define "top" he is not.  Throws 102mph for ball four.  Yippeee!!

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Duran has not been as dominant as in April/May lately, but he is still pretty good.

BS/L Before @BAL series: 4 in 28 APPs

BS/L After @BAL series: 5 in 29 APPs (07/30 was counted as just one, despite him being charged for both a BS and L)

 

Neither blown save in the first half resulted in a Twins loss, and he did not have any outings in which he surrendered multiple runs. I am not saying he's the same pitcher right now that he was the first year and a half of his career, but 5 BS/L in 29 APPs is not enough to warrant a change at closer, much less one that puts an inexperienced starter in a high-leverage role for the postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

People are way overblowing Duran's volatility. Yeah, he's not Joe Nathan... few are. What I see here matches up with the eye test and it's pretty normal closer stuff. He occasionally gets wild and is occasionally BABIPed to death. That's what happens when a guy has small samples of high leverage pitches.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	12	41	34	3	5	0	0	2	1	0	6	14	2.33	.147	.275	.324	.599	11	2	0	1	0	1	0	.167	89	66
May	8	39	35	2	5	1	0	0	1	0	3	15	5.00	.143	.211	.171	.382	6	0	0	1	0	1	0	.250	22	7
June	8	39	33	2	5	2	0	1	1	0	5	13	2.60	.152	.282	.303	.585	10	1	1	0	0	2	0	.211	85	62
July	10	48	40	10	13	4	0	1	3	0	3	13	4.33	.325	.404	.500	.904	20	0	3	1	1	1	0	.444	185	145
August	12	53	50	6	14	1	0	2	2	1	3	17	5.67	.280	.321	.420	.741	21	1	0	0	0	0	1	.387	133	100
Sept/Oct	7	29	25	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	9	2.25	.160	.276	.160	.436	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	40	24

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd keep Duran there. But I would also be ready to yank him if he goes 3 batters and walks 2 of them. 

He has the stuff. Big time. It's fantastic. He is struggling a little bit right now though. Probably not the best idea to change this around this late in the game.

One other guy I think we are missing here though if you're talking about it is Theilbar. If we are looking at a 9th inning in need of a closer and have a few lefties coming up, I don't think it would be out of line to give that to Caleb if he is still available. 

[Blyleven2011]

On 9/23/2023 at 9:25 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Maybe in a Playoff Series going forward if Duran is spent. Interesting thought for ‘24 & beyond……the “bulldog” attitude fits a closer mentality.

With those 2 guys alternating the mental challenges of Closer with Jax complementing would be really something to see………..similar to the Reds Pen of ‘90…..nasty boys!

The nasty boys were nasty , very nasty ...

Never can duplicate those 3 , royals had 3 nasty arms for a few years during there short run of playoffs and world series  ...

[Nine of twelve]

I think I would trust almost every reliever on the staff with closing with if the need arose, Varland included.