The Twins Can Win Playoff Games With Their Bench

[Greggory Masterson]

As we start looking ahead to the postseason, the Twins have a strength that they lacked in recent playoff appearances: a functional bench. Any one of their many role players may be why they finally win in the playoffs.

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Now, I won’t go so far as to say that the Twins’ bench is Built for October™. However, postseason depth is much, much different than regular season depth. Come October, teams with a talented bench don’t necessarily have a useful bench.

Consider 2019-2020 super-utility man Marwin Gonzalez for a recent Twins example. In his prime, Gonzalez was a manager’s dream in the regular season. He could be penciled in almost everywhere, almost every night, and provide a competent bat and glove for 130 games a year. He might even be a mainstay at one spot due to injury—as he was in the opening months of 2019 filling in for the injured Miguel Sano.

Competent bats and fielders—high-end backups—see little time in the playoffs. They’re regular-season depth. Without injuries, Rocco Baldelli would have had little use for those skills. The likes of Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton, and Terrance Gore, blazing-fast base-stealers with little else in the way of value, are where the money is at.

In 2019, the Twins ALDS bench consisted of Jason Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Jake Cave. Of course, every team will carry a backup catcher, justifying Castro’s presence.

Schoop was the best bat of the group, but he only played second base and could have been a pinch-hitting option. However, few players could be justifiably lifted from the starting lineup, even against lefty pitching, which Schoop had a .908 OPS against. Subbing him in in Game 2 required Luis Arraez to move to third base, Sano to first, and Gonzalez to left field.

Adrianza and Cave were competent backups in the infield and outfield, respectively. However, without an injury, there was little use for them other than Adrianza as a defensive replacement or Cave as a pinch runner (and not a top-tier one).

In 2020, the Twins had a larger bench, though an arguably less useful one—Alex Avila, a hobbled Mitch Garver, Willians Astudillo, Adrianza, Cave, and Alex Kirilloff. Three catchers. Ironically, they all played in Game 1, as Ryan Jeffers started and was pinch hit for by Garver, who was replaced by Avila to actually catch until Astudillo pinch hit and grounded into the most predictable game-ending ground play this side of 2023 Carlos Correa.

Astudillo was the most helpful piece on that bench, as he could perform a precise role: putting the ball in play. Adrianza, Cave, and Kirilloff (who had no MLB plate appearances then) could each be relied on as an injury (or Eddie Rosario ejection) replacement.

Hopefully, the point is evident here. The Twins didn’t have situationally functional pieces on their bench. They arguably had a better lineup in those years than they have this year, but a functional bench is an advantage for any playoff team.

Enough about the past. What could a playoff bench look like in 2023? Depending on how many pitchers the team chooses to carry in the Wild Card round, they could have up to an eight-man bench (three starting pitchers, six relief pitchers, nine in the starting lineup, and eight on the bench). More realistically, they might carry five or six for the Wild Card round. Here are the options:

Christian Vazquez
As the backup catcher, Vazquez is a lock for the roster. Every team needs at least two catchers. Beyond that (I’m warning everyone reading this), Ryan Jeffers probably won’t start three games in a row, whenever or wherever that happens. Vazquez is the inferior catcher, but he will probably start at least one game.

Michael A. Taylor
Taylor has been the primary center fielder due to Byron Buxton’s injuries, and a betting man would lean toward him still being in that role in the postseason. I’m listing him here on the off chance Buxton returns. Taylor will be a quality pinch runner, and he could be subbed in to play left field alongside Buxton and Max Kepler as a late-game, elite defensive replacement in left field.

Willi Castro
Castro is the third of five seeming locks to be on the roster. He’s enabled of manager Rocco Baldelli’s shenanigans all year, and his ability to pinch run could be crucial, as he’s a great runner with more than 30 stolen bases. He’s also a competent fielder, so if the defense needs to be jumbled up for any reason, he can patch it up.

Kyle Farmer
Farmer could fall into the Adrianza bucket—a good glove in the infield. However, he also has a history of hammering left-handed pitching and is on a tear recently. Many don’t want to hear this, but he’ll probably start against a lefty over Edouard Julien, pinch hit for him against a lefty reliever, or finish the game at second base (if, for some reason, Julien needs to start there instead of as the designated hitter).

Joey Gallo
Kidding. Foot injury or something.

Donovan Solano
Thus far, there hasn’t been a bona fide pinch hitter discussed, but Donnie Barrels is the man for the job. The fifth lock to make the roster, he’s as trusted a pinch-hitter as a team can ask for against a righty or lefty. Beyond that, he’ll likely start at first base if the Twins face a lefty starter.

Jordan Luplow
We’re getting into the more questionable choices, but don’t be surprised in the least if Luplow makes the roster as a right-handed outfield option. If he is on the roster, he’ll probably start in left field against lefties and bat in the top half. You can kick and scream about it, but please don’t take your anger out on me; I’m just the messenger. I also think it’s reasonable, but I’m still just the messenger.

Andrew Stevenson
Stevenson is probably the least likely to make the roster among those who still have a chance. If Taylor indeed starts in center field, Stevenson might be given a spot in a similar role. He could be a second pinch-running option behind Castro and a late-game defensive replacement in left.

Gilberto Celestino
Celestino was called up to Minnesota for the first time in 2023 on Sunday. He originally wasn’t on this list, but if he’s up now, he may be a right-handed alternative to Stevenson. I’d give him minimal odds unless additional injuries force him into said role.

Now, I won’t sit here and say that having a bunch of useful tools makes a team a World Series contender. Nonetheless, any one of these players could reasonably be used in a position that decides whether or not the Twins win or lose a game. There’s depth at each position, but there are also pinch runners, platoon hitters, and defensive replacements that can give a slight edge to a team that they would otherwise lack. Every edge matters in October. Let’s see some moves, Rocco.

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[Brandon]

And the wild card is if the Twins decide to promote Lee for the playoffs.  I doubt it.  But it has happened before.

[strumdatjag]

You left out Nick Gordon, who must have an outside chance.   Looks like he is getting close to being able to contribute. 

[Greggory Masterson]

7 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

You left out Nick Gordon, who must have an outside chance.   Looks like he is getting close to being able to contribute. 

I considered adding Gordon or Miranda, or even Larnach, but I had them in the Celestino bucket. If we haven't heard from them in months, I don't think they have much of a chance on the roster, especially if their skillsets are redundant. Gordon is another Castro, and probably a worse one. Miranda and Larnach don't bring anything that benefits a team situationally. Celestino only makes the list because he's right-handed.

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

And the wild card is if the Twins decide to promote Lee for the playoffs.  I doubt it.  But it has happened before.

I think if there's a surprise, non-40 man guy called up for the playoffs it will be Martin. Similar rationale to Stevenson/Celestino: second pinch runner, good defensive left fielder if needed. He'd also bring an emergency infielder and would probably rank between Castro and Solano at second base there.

[Trov]

31 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

You left out Nick Gordon, who must have an outside chance.   Looks like he is getting close to being able to contribute. 

Yes, if Gordon can run he would be considered as he fits the pinch runner, can play many positions situation.  He also knows how to bunt, which the team has shown they are willing to do this year in certain situations.  I do feel this bench is much better built for playoffs.  Castro can pinch run, fill in on defense wherever, and can do the small things.  Just about everybody can do something helpful overall. 

[Karbo]

Its getting less and less likely they get Buxton back. Played 1 game (at least part) in CF and couldn't get thru the next as DH. Unless he can play the field, IMO he doesn't need to be added. Let him rest or get something done with the knee.

[Muppet]

This bench is different from previous benches in that a lot of these guys could be legitimately decent situational starters. And Rocco uses them that way. In the past you'd only expect to see people like Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza starting the game when someone else was injured or sick. If I see someone like Farmer or MAT starting the game I'm not gonna be groaning about the end times. 

Also, its time to stop our Vazquez hating. The guy is slowing getting it together, or at least maybe Jeffers is finally starting to cool down to his level. Vazquez is a decent defending catcher and his numbers in August have been better than sub-par. Jeffers is tending the opposite direction. Either one of them is a solid backup catcher at this point. 

This team's strength is its depth. They might not be great at anything, but they are good at everything. 

[Greggory Masterson]

3 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Also, its time to stop our Vazquez hating. The guy is slowing getting it together, or at least maybe Jeffers is finally starting to cool down to his level. Vazquez is a decent defending catcher and his numbers in August have been better than sub-par. Jeffers is tending the opposite direction. Either one of them is a solid backup catcher at this point. 

You’re absolutely right; on reread that part came off more flippant than I’d intended. Vazquez is an awesome piece to have, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he catches all of López or Ryan’s games. One of the top reserve catchers in the game.

[stringer bell]

According to the radio broadcast, Taylor is likely to be activated and probably within the week. I expect he'll start in center field for all post-season games. If Wallner doesn't pick it up, Castro might be the starter in left field. Farmer and Solano certainly will start against left handed pitching and will pinch hit against a lefty reliever. Luplow is less certain.

[Dave Borton]

Quote

As the backup catcher, Vazquez 

Vazquez, 84 games C
Jeffers, 72 games C

[Dave Borton]

Quote

Celestino was called up to Minnesota for the first time in 2023 on Sunday.

Man, I must have been asleep at the switch. I totally missed this, thx.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

You left out Nick Gordon, who must have an outside chance.   Looks like he is getting close to being able to contribute. 

Heres hoping Gordon doesn't see Target Field again.  Casto is better then Gordon and provides the same flexibility.

[FlyingFinn]

56 minutes ago, Trov said:

Yes, if Gordon can run he would be considered as he fits the pinch runner, can play many positions situation. 

Even before this injury, Gordon was a half step slower in stealing than Taylor and Castro, Stevenson and Martin. That makes him less likely to make a playoff roster.

[CRF]

22 minutes ago, davidborton said:

Man, I must have been asleep at the switch. I totally missed this, thx.

I saw him in the dugout yesterday, and I was hoping it was just my old eyes playing tricks on me. There's no reason for him to be up here. 

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Even before this injury, Gordon was a half step slower in stealing than Taylor and Castro, Stevenson and Martin. That makes him less likely to make a playoff roster.

It’s more than a half step. Nick’s brother got the speed. According to Baseball Savant, Nick is just an average runner. 

[Jocko87]

Quote

We’re getting into the more questionable choices, but don’t be surprised in the least if Luplow makes the roster as a right-handed outfield option. If he is on the roster, he’ll probably start in left field against lefties and bat in the top half. You can kick and scream about it, but please don’t take your anger out on me; I’m just the messenger. I also think it’s reasonable, but I’m still just the messenger.

Not only is the bench a strength for the playoffs but the depth gives Rocco some great options when creating a lineup.  Luplow bats in the hole where he will be most effectively pinch hit for, that's it.  On Saturday, against a lefty, the most likely to be pinch hit for were in the 1, 5 and 6 holes.  When that spot comes up against a RH reliever there is significant upside in having some elite LH hitters on the bench.  That will be the approach against lefties, make them work and get them out of the game in the 5th and let the bench take over.  Against righties it will be less apparent but we will still see Solano in place of Julien or Wallner in a key spot.

Lineup creation is much more fun when you can game plan options.  Having options to game plan with is even better.  They have options for pinch hitting, pinch running and defense that can be deployed as weapons rather than just a replacement.  I really haven't gotten too worked up over the lineups this year as I can see them trying these things. 

I would love to see Taylor as the primary bench weapon but it doesn't look like that will happen.  We probably should have Buxton on this list as a bench option.  There is a chance he doesn't get the DH start against the RH starter at this point but would hit against a lefty reliever.  I hate to say it but it has to be in the possible range of outcomes.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

This bench is different from previous benches in that a lot of these guys could be legitimately decent situational starters. And Rocco uses them that way. In the past you'd only expect to see people like Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza starting the game when someone else was injured or sick. If I see someone like Farmer or MAT starting the game I'm not gonna be groaning about the end times. 

Also, its time to stop our Vazquez hating. The guy is slowing getting it together, or at least maybe Jeffers is finally starting to cool down to his level. Vazquez is a decent defending catcher and his numbers in August have been better than sub-par. Jeffers is tending the opposite direction. Either one of them is a solid backup catcher at this point. 

This team's strength is its depth. They might not be great at anything, but they are good at everything. 

Depth vs nine can't miss guys. Sooner or later one will miss. I think we are well equipped to handle that. It's up to Rocco to recognize the who and when.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, davidborton said:

Vazquez, 84 games C
Jeffers, 72 games C

Unreal

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Unreal

Since the All-Star break:

Vazquez, 28 starts

Jeffers, 28 starts

The tide is turning.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Since the All-Star break:

Vazquez, 28 starts

Jeffers, 28 starts

The tide is turning.

Still not enough for me.... But at least it's better

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I considered adding Gordon or Miranda, or even Larnach, but I had them in the Celestino bucket. If we haven't heard from them in months, I don't think they have much of a chance on the roster, especially if their skillsets are redundant. Gordon is another Castro, and probably a worse one. Miranda and Larnach don't bring anything that benefits a team situationally. Celestino only makes the list because he's right-handed.

I think if there's a surprise, non-40 man guy called up for the playoffs it will be Martin. Similar rationale to Stevenson/Celestino: second pinch runner, good defensive left fielder if needed. He'd also bring an emergency infielder and would probably rank between Castro and Solano at second base there.

Seems as if Martin has no chance in coming up at all - let alone in October - with Stevenson & Celestino having been promoted in front of him in September.

Why wait to promote Lee if they were considering? Can’t imagine. Am assuming Polanco will be back by Friday.

I honestly think that Gallo has a much better chance of being rostered than Larnach, Gordon, or Celestino……..Miranda’s chances really not worth considering.

If we have 6 bench players (12 pitchers), there are 8 position players, and we have to field a DH from our “bench guys.” IMO Taylor or Castro are starting in CF, so one isn’t a bench guy, & Buxton isn’t rostered……..then Julien DH’s v. RH pitching.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Not only is the bench a strength for the playoffs but the depth gives Rocco some great options when creating a lineup.  Luplow bats in the hole where he will be most effectively pinch hit for, that's it.  On Saturday, against a lefty, the most likely to be pinch hit for were in the 1, 5 and 6 holes.  When that spot comes up against a RH reliever there is significant upside in having some elite LH hitters on the bench.  That will be the approach against lefties, make them work and get them out of the game in the 5th and let the bench take over.  Against righties it will be less apparent but we will still see Solano in place of Julien or Wallner in a key spot.

Lineup creation is much more fun when you can game plan options.  Having options to game plan with is even better.  They have options for pinch hitting, pinch running and defense that can be deployed as weapons rather than just a replacement.  I really haven't gotten too worked up over the lineups this year as I can see them trying these things. 

I would love to see Taylor as the primary bench weapon but it doesn't look like that will happen.  We probably should have Buxton on this list as a bench option.  There is a chance he doesn't get the DH start against the RH starter at this point but would hit against a lefty reliever.  I hate to say it but it has to be in the possible range of outcomes.

If he’s rostered, Buxton could/should have Luplow’s spot and he’d need to play LF or, CF with Taylor in LF. I’d rather have him in the line-up at 85% than Luplow.

Maybe Taylor and Castro play OF & Buxton is DH? Infield of Lewis - CC - Farmer - Solano.

I guess bottom line is Buxton would displace Luplow on the October roster.

[DocBauer]

The thing about the post season is, every series is a compacted SSS unto itself. Great players struggle and a lower level player, or bench player, often excels in the moment. 

While Jeffers has seemingly put it together, and is now the better "1st team catcher", Vazquez is a very good catcher a lot of teams would love to have, even in a down season. And he's been through playoff and WS  "crunch time" before. That's one of those intangibles you can't put a number on. Guys like him are the type who call a great game and make a game winning hit you might not have expected.

Castro is a potential Wild Card because he's good defensively wherever you put him, has had some key hits during the season, and brings a legitimate speed option the Twins haven't had before in the post season.

Taylor is not a bench player. He'll probably be starting. But speed and defense and bunting ability at the bottom of the order is worth mentioning, and he might do that off the bench if Castro starts a game.

Is Solano a bench player? I guess he might be with Kirilloff starting. Top PH on the team, and maybe one of the best clutch performers this season.

Farmer is one of those tough guys who battles, runs hot and cold, but has a history against LH pitchers. So yes, while I hope there isn't a "too early" PH situation, he's got the ability and track record to come through. 

Gallo...HAHAHAHA...will play along and get a chuckle. 

Do the Twins go 14 or 15 players? Luplow, POTENTIALLY offers a RH bat against LHP even though he hasn't done much yet. Stevenson's LH bat is debatable, but his speed as another PR/SB option might be interesting.  Not a great pair of #14/15 options.  They CAN add Martin as a late promotion add for injury replacement option. Would they do that? Have they been holding him back to play daily at AAA with the idea they might add him late? Maybe, but it's hard to see. It would be akin to adding AK for the playoffs in 2020, which was due to injury, IIRC. But like Stevenson, he might  be a speed option off the bench.

Thing is, first round of the payoffs at least, you should expect a 14 player roster, if not a 15 man. I'm expecting 14. I'm expecting Lupow to be that guy because he's an experienced ML player and still fits a role against LHP. I'd rather make a surprise addition of Martin as an option because he's close to being ready, has to be added anyway, and might surprise. At worst, he'd be a PR possibility. 

But is he a better 14th man vs Stevenson sticking around? 

I know the Twins are HOPING Buxton might be that 14th or 15th man. And that would be great to see. But I'm sure not betting on it.