Roughing out September transactions

[stringer bell]

It appears everyone on Injured Lists has a chance of returning to play for the Twins in the last 30 games, except for De León and Mahle. Currently, Nick Gordon, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are on the 60-day Injured List and room would have to be cleared to have them return to the active roster. The Saints play until September 23rd, I believe and they might make it to post-season. Wichita has a chance to win their second half and extend their season and Cedar Rapids has already qualified, so there will be places for the players to rehab. The Twins can add two players to the active roster on September 1.

The most certain to be placed on the active roster is Willi Castro, who has already started his rehab assignment. I would expect he will be back at least by September 1, if not sooner. Next would be Alex Kirilloff and/or Byron Buxton. They are both doing baseball activities, but not yet ready for rehab in St. Paul. I suspect the Twins are using Buxton's hamstring issue to get the rest of his body as right as it can be, hence the long layoff for a strained hamstring. Barring setbacks, these three players will all be on the playoff roster if the Twins prevail in the Central. 

Nick Gordon hasn't played since May 17th and would certainly need a rehab assignment before going on the active roster. I don't think there is a place for him unless someone gets injured, so it wouldn't surprise me if he stays on the Injured List. The same is true for Jose Miranda, who hasn't played since July 9. He could be transferred to the 60-day list to make room for someone returning from the 60-day IL.

On the pitching side, the Twins have Oliver Ortega on the 15-day list. He could return on about the 10th of September, but doesn't figure to be part of the Twins post-season roster. In addition, he can be optioned, so he'll likely go back St. Paul and rehab unless he is needed with the Twins. Jorge Alcalá has thrown several bullpen sessions and could give the Twins a lift if he is finally healthy. Again, it must be near mandatory to send him to St. Paul first, both to see if he is really healthy and to see if he can be effective. Chris Paddack has been pitching in Florida and according to the Athletic, is throwing as high as 95 mph. It seems to me that it would be a long shot for either Paddack or Alcalá to be a factor for post-season. 

Finally, and most hopefully, Brock Stewart is throwing and feeling good. A September 10th return is the optimistic timetable for him. If he is healthy, he could step into the bullpen in high leverage situations. Again, after being out over two months, some time in St. Paul is to be expected. 

New injuries will most likely pop up, but here is my rough timetable for rehab assignments, activations and other transactions along with a playoff roster: September 1--Willi Castro activated and added to the active roster. Jovani Moran also added (a last chance to show he can throw strikes). Stewart sent to St. Paul for rehab. September 5--Kirilloff and Buxton to St. Paul for rehab. If Chris Paddack or Alcalá have a chance to contribute, they are also sent to St. Paul.  September 10--Stewart activated, Ortega to St. Paul for rehab, Sands, Moran or Winder optioned to make room for Stewart and Miranda transferred to the 60-day list. September 12--Rehab for Gordon. Recall to the majors for Buxton, Luplow optioned. September 15--Kirilloff activated. Some random player placed on the IL. Here's my playoff roster: Jeffers, Vázquez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, Castro, Wallner, Taylor, Buxton, Kepler, Julien, Gallo (position players). Pitchers: López, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Paddack, Floro, Thielbar, Pagán, Jax, Stewart, Duran.

[Dave Borton]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The same is true for Jose Miranda, who hasn't played since July 9.

I had forgotten than it was that long.

[pierre75275]

I'm not saying it's advisable, but they could not run with 13 pitchers and add Gordon, if it came to that in Sept. Look how long Sands was on the roster with no usage at all.

Also in the playoffs I doubt they carry 13 pitchers, especially for the first round.

[FlyingFinn]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

New injuries will most likely pop up, but here is my rough timetable for rehab assignments, activations and other transactions along with a playoff roster: September 1--Willi Castro activated and added to the active roster. Jovani Moran also added (a last chance to show he can throw strikes). Stewart sent to St. Paul for rehab. September 5--Kirilloff and Buxton to St. Paul for rehab. If Chris Paddack or Alcalá have a chance to contribute, they are also sent to St. Paul.  September 10--Stewart activated, Ortega to St. Paul for rehab, Sands, Moran or Winder optioned to make room for Stewart and Miranda transferred to the 60-day list. September 12--Rehab for Gordon. Recall to the majors for Buxton, Luplow optioned. September 15--Kirilloff activated. Some random player placed on the IL. Here's my playoff roster: Jeffers, Vázquez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, Castro, Wallner, Taylor, Buxton, Kepler, Julien, Gallo (position players). Pitchers: López, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Paddack, Floro, Thielbar, Pagán, Jax, Stewart, Duran.

Thanks for the analysis. What purpose does Gallo serve if we have Kirilloff and Solano at 1B, Buxton, Taylor and Castro in CF and Castro, Taylor and Wallner in LF? We would be much better off with speed on the bench with someone like Martin.

Paddack, I don't think he's going to be ready. I would like another left-hander out of the pen. I like Funderburk over Moran but we better get him some MLB experience if we are going in that direction.

[Robert Floren]

As to Gallo, he does hit some hrs, including occasional majestic bombs, but his strikeouts are hard to watch.

[stringer bell]

I don’t think it’s optimum to go with rookies with no major league experience. I don’t want Gallo to sniff post-season, but I doubt the team feels the same about that. It’s going to be tough to get the 60-day IL guys back without losing a player or players the Twins want to keep. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

44 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

 Here's my playoff roster: Jeffers, Vázquez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, Castro, Wallner, Taylor, Buxton, Kepler, Julien, Gallo (position players). Pitchers: López, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Paddack, Floro, Thielbar, Pagán, Jax, Stewart, Duran.

Let's hope that all of those players are actually healthy for the playoffs!  I'm guessing somebody won't be so there will be another spot on the position player side.  Also, on the pitching side, I'm going to be very (pleasantly) surprised if Paddack is ready to go and I'm pretty iffy on Stewart being healthy as well.  The obvious replacement for either of those is Keuchel.  As a soft tossing lefty, he would make a nice contrast in the pen. The nice part is that we shouldn't need five starters in the playoffs, so one of those guys definitely transitions to the pen as well. 

[Paul Walerius]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Jeffers, Vázquez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, Castro, Wallner, Taylor, Buxton, Kepler, Julien, Gallo (position players). Pitchers: López, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Paddack, Floro, Thielbar, Pagán, Jax, Stewart, Duran.

If I am a betting man Paddock is not going to be back.  they will give him the offseason to make sure he is good.  With Kuechel there is 0 point to bring another starter to the pen (Ober/Meada probably end up there as well).   Buxton needs to be able to get into the field though, that is a must, otherwise, keep him on IL and bring up Martin.   

[Paul Walerius]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t think it’s optimum to go with rookies with no major league experience. I don’t want Gallo to sniff post-season, but I doubt the team feels the same about that. It’s going to be tough to get the 60-day IL guys back without losing a player or players the Twins want to keep. 

I think the problem with his bat is if he is needed for 3-4 ABs in a game.   I like him as a pinch hitter/defensive replacement.  

[Riverbrian]

With no injuries (That won't be the case). This projection is a combination of what I think should happen and how the Twins typically operate. 

Position Players 14 - Pitchers 12 

Starting Rotation:

Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda

One of these 5 will take an innings eater position in case innings need to be eaten. Rocco will rotate 4. The 4 starters, Game One, Two, Three and Four and the innings eater positions are yet to be determined. Lets see how September goes. Let's see who we match up with. I still see this as open competition still to be determined because there isn't much separation for that #1 spot between all 5.     

Pen:

Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Floro,

6th spot to (Stewart or Alcala - Who's healthy?) Stewart gets high leverage if healthy - Alcala gets low leverage if healthy and Stewart is not healthy... If neither are healthy? IDK... It would have to be yet to be determined. Balazovic? Winder? Who is going to hang zeroes the most consistently in September.  

7th Spot to Moran, Headrick or Kuechel. Twins will want another lefty to deploy out of the pen. Moran will get a chance to reclaim this spot. If he can't... Kuechel is currently given a chance to carve out a role. Headrick if all else fails. Especially if we draw Houston or Texas... Think Tucker, Alveraz, Seager and Lowe. If we draw the Mariners or Jays... That extra lefty may not be a big deal. 

Offense: Gone are Gallo and Gordon if the rest are healthy. Gallo will need an injury to make the roster. There is a possibility that Gordon will take Castro's spot in an attempt to hang on to Gordon. Castro has an option. I give it to Castro because he has been a fantastic base runner and he is a solid defensive replacement talent almost everywhere and Rocco will pinch hit to create the need for this type of player. Because the final open position will be utilized in late innings. Castro is a must so there is no spot for Gordon. Sorry Nick. 

Vs RH                       

Julien - DH 

Correa - SS

Kepler - RF

Buxton - CF

Polanco - 2B

Kirilloff 1B

Lewis - 3B

Wallner - LF

Jeffers - C

Vazquez, Solano, Farmer, Taylor, Castro
              

VS LH Lewis needs to play LF... If Lewis in LF isn't a consideration. It should be damn it but if he isn't. 

Then

A. Castro starts in LF and Farmer is relegated to a defensive replacement for the entire playoffs and we don't have a decent pinch running option. 

B. Buxton plays CF for the entire playoffs. Taylor moves to LF, Farmer to 2B and Polanco to DH.  

Solano - 1B

Polanco - 2B

Correa - SS

Buxton - DH (I can't see Buxton CF every day... I'll take him in CF against RH pitchers as a compromise)

Lewis - LF 

Kepler - RF

Jeffers - C

Farmer - 3B

Taylor - CF

Vazquez, Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Castro

Possible 1st round opponent considerations: Orioles and Rays will fight for #1 and #4. Twins will be the #3 seed with #2 a possibility. Our Twins haven't had a big 10 game win streak yet... Maybe it's coming but until it comes...  Let's focus on #3 seed which will host the 6th seed. 

I believe the 6th Seed will go to one of these 4 teams. Rangers, Astros, Mariners and Blue Jays. 

Blue Jays: One lefty starter Ryu with Kikuchi to the Pen. Kikuchi in the pen gives them 3 lefties in the that pen and they will deploy those lefties early because of our issues against left handers (Mayza, Cabrera and Kikuchi) hoping to get Farmer and Solano types into the game for the right hand handed late inning contingent of Romano, Hicks and Garcia. And... And... Because of our issues against left handers... I could see them throwing Ryu game one followed by Gausman and Berrios.

Against the Blue Jays... the importance of Correa and Buxton playing well has to be obvious to all. We will have to hit left handers early in the game.

Side note to Rocco: I'd personally love to see Kirilloff, Wallner, and Julien get some more extended looks at left handers in September because you can't paint yourself into the corner of having nobody to pinch hit for Farmer against Romano after you pinch hit Farmer for Julien in the 6th inning.  Schneider is going to try to draw them out.  

Rangers: One starting lefthander in Montgomery, Scherzer will get game one if available. Monty #2. Gray and Dunning compete for #3 and #4. Lefty Heaney to the pen to join Smith, Chapman, Burke and Perez for a possible total of 5 lefties out of the pen. Currently Smith and Chapman are the main guys in the bullpen. If they maintain that status... they can lefty us for 3 games. Gonna need Buxton and Correa and Lewis to play like they are capable of playing. Actually... The vets will have to bring us home. All of them because they will be coming from the port side.   

Mariners: All Young Right Handed Rotation. A couple of decent lefties in the pen that will be deployed early. All right handed Late inning relievers. They only have a couple of cards to play. Deploy the VS RH Lineup and let it rock. Key Moment pinch hit considerations only.  

Astros: One Lefty Starter in Framber. No Lefties in the Bullpen. We just got to out hit and out pitch them. Get some friendly bloops, catch some line drives, get the umpire calls to go our way at key moments.  Easy Peasy. 

 

 

[glunn]

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

With no injuries (That won't be the case). This projection is a combination of what I think should happen and how the Twins typically operate. 

Position Players 14 - Pitchers 12 

Starting Rotation:

Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda

One of these 5 will take an innings eater position if case innings need to be eaten. Rocco will rotate 4. The 4 starters, Game One, Two, Three and Four and the innings eater positions are yet to be determined. Lets see how September goes. Let's see who we match up with. I still see this as open competition still to be determined because there isn't much separation for that #1 spot between all 5.     

Pen:

Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Floro,

6th spot to (Stewart or Alcala - Who's healthy?) Stewart gets high leverage if healthy - Alcala gets low leverage if healthy and Stewart is not healthy... If neither are healthy? IDK... It would have to be yet to be determined. Balazovic? Winder? Who is going to hang zeroes the most consistently in September.  

7th Spot to Moran, Headrick or Kuechel. Twins will want another lefty to deploy out of the pen. Moran will get a chance to reclaim this spot. If he can't... Kuechel is currently given a chance to carve out a role. Headrick if all else fails. Especially if we draw Houston or Texas... Think Tucker, Alveraz, Seager and Lowe. If we draw the Mariners or Jays... That extra lefty may not be a big deal. 

Offense: Gone are Gallo and Gordon if the rest are healthy. Gallo will need an injury to make the roster. There is a possibility that Gordon will take Castro's spot in an attempt to hang on to Gordon. Castro has an option. I give it to Castro because he has been a fantastic base runner and he is a solid defensive replacement talent almost everywhere and Rocco will pinch hit to create the need for this type of player. Because the final open position will be utilized in late innings. Castro is a must so there is no spot for Gordon. Sorry Nick. 

Vs RH                       

Julien - DH 

Correa - SS

Kepler - RF

Buxton - CF

Polanco - 2B

Kirilloff 1B

Lewis - 3B

Wallner - LF

Jeffers - C

Vazquez, Solano, Farmer, Taylor, Castro
              

VS LH Lewis needs to play LF... If Lewis in LF isn't a consideration. It should be damn it but if he isn't. 

Then

A. Castro starts in LF and Farmer is relegated to a defensive replacement for the entire playoffs and we don't have a decent pinch running option. 

B. Buxton plays CF for the entire playoffs. Taylor moves to LF, Farmer to 2B and Polanco to DH.  

Solano - 1B

Polanco - 2B

Correa - SS

Buxton - DH (I can't see Buxton CF every day... I'll take him in CF against RH pitchers as a compromise)

Lewis - LF 

Kepler - RF

Jeffers - C

Farmer - 3B

Taylor - CF

Vazquez, Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Castro

Possible 1st round opponent considerations: Orioles and Rays will fight for #1 and #4. Twins will be the #3 seed with #2 a possibility. Our Twins haven't had a big 10 game win streak yet... Maybe it's coming but until it comes...  Let's focus on #3 seed which will host the 6th seed. 

I believe the 6th Seed will go to one of these 4 teams. Rangers, Astros, Mariners and Blue Jays. 

Blue Jays: One lefty starter Ryu with Kikuchi to the Pen. Kikuchi in the pen gives them 3 lefties in the that pen and they will deploy those lefties early because of our issues against left handers (Mayza, Cabrera and Kikuchi) hoping to get Farmer and Solano types into the game for the right hand handed late inning contingent of Romano, Hicks and Garcia. And... And... Because of our issues against left handers... I could see them throwing Ryu game one followed by Gausman and Berrios.

Against the Blue Jays... the importance of Correa and Buxton playing well has to be obvious to all. We will have to hit left handers early in the game.

Side note to Rocco: I'd personally love to see Kirilloff, Wallner, and Julien get some more extended looks at left handers in September because you can't paint yourself into the corner of having nobody to pinch hit for Farmer against Romano after you pinch hit Farmer for Julien in the 6th inning.  Schneider is going to try to draw them out.  

Rangers: One starting lefthander in Montgomery, Scherzer will get game one if available. Monty #2. Gray and Dunning compete for #3 and #4. Lefty Heaney to the pen to join Smith, Chapman, Burke and Perez for a possible total of 5 lefties out of the pen. Currently Smith and Chapman are the main guys in the bullpen. If they maintain that status... they can lefty us for 3 games. Gonna need Buxton and Correa and Lewis to play like they are capable of playing. Actually... The vets will have to bring us home. All of them because they will be coming from the port side.   

Mariners: All Young Right Handed Rotation. A couple of decent lefties in the pen that will be deployed early. All right handed Late inning relievers. They only have a couple of cards to play. Deploy the VS RH Lineup and let it rock. Key Moment pinch hit considerations only.  

Astros: One Lefty Starter in Framber. No Lefties in the Bullpen. We just got to out hit and out pitch them. Get some friendly bloops, catch some line drives, get the umpire calls to go our way at key moments.  Easy Peasy. 

 

 

Praying that the FO reads this.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I love riverbrian’s analysis of the offense. As far as pitching. Here goes mine. 

In the competition for possible #3 starter in the wild card round, I don’t really have an opinion. Maeda would worry me, but as of today would be my first choice. This could still change. Ryan with his current struggles seems like a better candidate for one inning of relief. For Ober, they are clearly managing his innings, and it also depends on how Ober matches up. I am not interested in Paddack for a bullpen spot unless he makes a couple of late season starts and we see how he fares. Keuchel is a nice story but not worth the risk. Varland is an excellent candidate for relief as long as we ask him not to overthrow. I would not attempt any other surprises from AAA. 

With good long starts from Lopez and Gray and production from the offense, the Twins could very conceivably advance to the second round. 

[SteveLV]

Can someone explain how the requirement to be "on the roster" on September 1 to be eligible for the playoffs works?

Does that mean the 40 man roster?  So can someone on the 40 man who is on the DL now still qualify for the playoffs?

Thanks!

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Can someone explain how the requirement to be "on the roster" on September 1 to be eligible for the playoffs works?

Does that mean the 40 man roster?  So can someone on the 40 man who is on the DL now still qualify for the playoffs?

Thanks!

The bare bones basics are that you need to be on the 40-man or 60-day IL by 11:59 PM Eastern time on August 31 to be postseason eligible. 

[chpettit19]

Dang, @Riverbrian bringing the A game on this one! Well done.

I think @stringer bell has the timelines pretty well mapped out for September, but I will disagree with Paddack making the postseason roster. I think his spot will go to a position player instead. And I'd like to see Floro replaced by a lefty. That could be matchup specific, though, and change round to round. My problem is I don't trust any of the lefty options available. Most of the left handed hitters we're likely to face early in the postseason are simply great hitters and aren't super susceptible to platoon splits so maybe it isn't as huge of a deal. But I do like at least 2 lefties in my postseason pen to help with mix and matching late.

The September roster moves, and lineup/pitching usage will be interesting to follow. Hopefully we can get to the point where they're all more or less healthy in the middle of the month and see what decisions this FO makes when they're forced to make tough decisions. I doubt it happens, but it'd be nice to see who they think their best 28 are. As for the playoffs, I just hope they don't get matchup/platoon happy. After the 2020 postseason they said they learned they needed to do things a little differently in the postseason than they did in the regular season. Let's hope they remembered that lesson and we get to see it in October.

[DJL44]

Gladden said Nick Gordon is doing baseball activities but not 100% running yet. He is doubtful to return. It gets more difficult as we get closer to the end of the season because the minor league teams end their seasons early and there is nowhere to go to get rehab at-bats. The Saints are done on the 24th. Nick Gordon should get at least 10 days worth of plate appearances to get ready but if he's not running full speed I doubt he is ready for rehab by the 14th. Sounds like Castro and Buxton should be back soon, then Kirilloff.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Wow,  Paddack throwing 95 mph.  Hope the control is there.  

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

As for the playoffs, I just hope they don't get matchup/platoon happy.

I agree but I fear that the die has been cast.

They can't starve Kirilloff and Julien of AB's against lefty pitchers during the season and then start feeding them a diet of leftys during the playoffs. 

The best we can hope for is to not pinch hit too soon. Make the moves late in games. I don't want to see Farmer pinch hit for Julien in the 6th so Farmer has to face the right handed closer in the 9th. I'd rather that they keep their options until the 8th or 9th. Pinch Hitting, Pinch Running, Defensive replacements can be made at that point.  

[GusGus11]

31 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree but I fear that the die has been cast.

They can't starve Kirilloff and Julien of AB's against lefty pitchers during the season and then start feeding them a diet of leftys during the playoffs. 

The best we can hope for is to not pinch hit too soon. Make the moves late in games. I don't want to see Farmer pinch hit for Julien in the 6th so Farmer has to face the right handed closer in the 9th. I'd rather that they keep their options until the 8th or 9th. Pinch Hitting, Pinch Running, Defensive replacements can be made at that point.  

This is why our handlding of the youth to this point is negligent. And its malpractice if we dont start giving them sepetember reps vs lefties to get ready.

Our right platoons are not good players. We need to play the talent and let them get consistent reps vs lefties and see what happens. Castro is brutal as a righty, hes not a better option than any of the lefties.

Wallner and AK especially have shown to hit lefties really well during AAA stretches. GIVE THEM REPS.

Right now we are so robotic and biased its going to go as you said where the opposition just deploys a lefty as early as possible and forces us into a ill advised move.

Bochy played into that later in the game yesterday. Forced us to burn Farmer AND Julien. While getting stuck with one of the worst hitters in the league batting twice in key spots and playing a position he doesnt normally play. That guy was then replaced by Gallo.

God willing we survived it. But that stuff is going to keep happening if we dont develop our minds and stop being robotic "lefty pitch, must bat righty" wiht no other considerations outside of that surface level thought.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, GusGus11 said:

This is why our handlding of the youth to this point is negligent. And its malpractice if we dont start giving them sepetember reps vs lefties to get ready.

Our right platoons are not good players. We need to play the talent and let them get consistent reps vs lefties and see what happens. Castro is brutal as a righty, hes not a better option than any of the lefties.

Wallner and AK especially have shown to hit lefties really well during AAA stretches. GIVE THEM REPS.

Right now we are so robotic and biased its going to go as you said where the opposition just deploys a lefty as early as possible and forces us into a ill advised move.

Bochy played into that later in the game yesterday. Forced us to burn Farmer AND Julien. While getting stuck with one of the worst hitters in the league batting twice in key spots and playing a position he doesnt normally play. That guy was then replaced by Gallo.

God willing we survived it. But that stuff is going to keep happening if we dont develop our minds and stop being robotic "lefty pitch, must bat righty" wiht no other considerations outside of that surface level thought.

Disclaimer: I'm not anti-platoon. I understand the benefit of a platoon. I'm against the strict usage of it. 

I agree with you... I've been singing this same song for awhile now. 

I won't go to the point of calling it negligent or malpractice since the Twins are not alone but yeah... I have the same concerns that you do. 

Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner can't hit lefties. Well of course they can't... they don't get to face them. It's a self fulling prophecy. 

Ryan Jeffers? He couldn't hit right handers last year. This year... he is crushing right handers and it's lefties that he can't hit. Who is Ryan Jeffers... What will Ryan Jeffers be in the future? Jeffers can be what you let him be. Kirilloff can be what you let him be.

I believe that the early months of the season should be spent gathering data. If you want to take the data gathered for the stretch run and get aggressive with a platoon... fine by me. Because by that time the players will have told you who should platoon and who shouldn't and you are set up for the stretch run. 

Platooning a rookie out of the gate. That's just a good way to guarantee that they won't be better than Joc Pederson. 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Bochy played into that later in the game yesterday. Forced us to burn Farmer AND Julien. While getting stuck with one of the worst hitters in the league batting twice in key spots and playing a position he doesnt normally play. That guy was then replaced by Gallo.

On the pinch hit of Farmer last night. I believe it was a bad move but it isn't out of the ordinary across baseball.

I assume that Rocco was aware of the lefty in the bullpen, I assume that he even knew it was Smith in the bullpen and I assume that he was aware that Wallner is on-deck so I assume that Rocco knew Bochy would bring out the lefty when Julien was announced as a pinch hitter because that would be a little left handed stack.    

So therefore... the only final assumption that I can make is. Rocco would rather Vazquez face Smith than Farmer facing LeClerc.

If that is correct and it might be. My question would be... why didn't he use Gallo instead of Julien for the role of sacrificial lamb? 

The only assumption that I can make on that. Rocco doesn't think Gallo is scary enough to draw out Smith meaning Bochy just stays with LeClerc and Gallo just strikes out because that is what Gallo does. Two outs and a tying run on 2nd. A single is needed and Gallo is just plain low percentage on the hitting a single scale. 

Now if that's the case... and it just might be. Gallo is getting pretty close to useless on this roster.  

Personally... I would have left Farmer to face LeClerc and make Bochy bring the lefties Smith and Chapman to face the right handed hitting gauntlet that was still in place (minus Kepler for Luplow) for the 9th.  

Plus by burning Julien and Vazquez in the same plate appearance with Kepler already in the game. If we get that single to tie up the game. Only Gallo is left on the bench for extra innings. 

So... Yeah... I think it was a questionable move. 

[GusGus11]

17 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Disclaimer: I'm not anti-platoon. I understand the benefit of a platoon. I'm against the strict usage of it. 

I agree with you... I've been singing this same song for awhile now. 

I won't go to the point of calling it negligent or malpractice since the Twins are not alone but yeah... I have the same concerns that you do. 

Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner can't hit lefties. Well of course they can't... they don't get to face them. It's a self fulling prophecy. 

Ryan Jeffers? He couldn't hit right handers last year. This year... he is crushing right handers and it's lefties that he can't hit. Who is Ryan Jeffers... What will Ryan Jeffers be in the future? Jeffers can be what you let him be. Kirilloff can be what you let him be.

I believe that the early months of the season should be spent gathering data. If you want to take the data gathered for the stretch run and get aggressive with a platoon... fine by me by that time the players will have told you who should platoon and who shouldn't. 

Platooning a rookie out of the gate. That's just a good way to guarantee that they won't be better than Joc Pederson. 

 

 

 

 

I agree with you completely that platoons have to happen at times. Of course especially this day in age not everyone is going to play 162 games(except the Braves players pretty much). So of course get guys reps. Farmer and Solano originally were brought here to be hitters against lefties.

As you mentioned my issue with it is the extreme usage of it and not developing guys. Basically when we face lefties we start a left hander only as a last resort as in we dont have enough righties to field a lineup. And through the mid summer(before Kepler got red hot) the one lefty that always had priority was Kepler the vet who actually for a decade of proof has been terrible against them. Max is seeing everything well now so no longer a gripe but it was faulty logic in early July.

A few weeks ago when Castro was healthy. We were routinely batting him and Farmer 4th and 5th. Simply cause it was a lefty. Even though Farmer this year hasnt hit lefties at a clean up level(especially at those times) and Castro is virtually unplayable vs them

And to your point on Jeffers, we kept trotting Buxton out there middle of order vs them(even when we moved him down to 6th, he moved back up vs lefties). Byron has been awful vs them.

So yeah, long winded but I agree with you that platoons must be used at points, all teams use them. But as you said you dont try to turn your young players into Joc Pederson. Its the guys who are 30 and proven they are who they are that you always platoon. You have to let 25 year olds try and hit lefties. Thats where I think the negligence comes in.

When we wrap this division up soon. I would love to see us trot out our "righty pitcher" lineup for like 3 games against a lefty and just see what happens. Because what we currently do against lefty pitchers makes our offense way weaker. Would be interesting to see if Julien, AK and Wallner all play vs a lefty if they all get comfortable. Allow us to to have more options come October and not be so predictable.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The bare bones basics are that you need to be on the 40-man or 60-day IL by 11:59 PM Eastern time on August 31 to be postseason eligible. 

Question - if you're on the 40 man roster but not the 26 man MLB roster, can you be put on the playoff roster? I thought that was only doable as an "injury replacement" player with the replaced player going on the 10 day or 15 day IL. I might be remembering older rules.  So, for example, SWR is on the 40 man but hasn't been on the 26 man all year. Can he be arbitrarily dropped into a playoff roster to replace a healthy player or does someone have to go on IL for him to be able to be on the roster? Another example - let's say Varland doesn't come up from AAA the rest of the season. Can he be put on the playoff roster without a pitcher going on IL for 15 days? Just trying to figure out if it matters who's on the 26 man MLB roster at midnight 9/1 or only who's on the 40 man roster. By the way, Martin is not on the 40 man but Gallo and Luplow are. Just sayin....

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, GusGus11 said:

This is why our handlding of the youth to this point is negligent. And its malpractice if we dont start giving them sepetember reps vs lefties to get ready.

Our right platoons are not good players. We need to play the talent and let them get consistent reps vs lefties and see what happens. Castro is brutal as a righty, hes not a better option than any of the lefties.

Wallner and AK especially have shown to hit lefties really well during AAA stretches. GIVE THEM REPS.

Right now we are so robotic and biased its going to go as you said where the opposition just deploys a lefty as early as possible and forces us into a ill advised move.

Bochy played into that later in the game yesterday. Forced us to burn Farmer AND Julien. While getting stuck with one of the worst hitters in the league batting twice in key spots and playing a position he doesnt normally play. That guy was then replaced by Gallo.

God willing we survived it. But that stuff is going to keep happening if we dont develop our minds and stop being robotic "lefty pitch, must bat righty" wiht no other considerations outside of that surface level thought.

While I don't disagree that they need to give the kids PAs vs lefties, I'm not sure where you're getting your info on Castro this year. Very different sample size numbers here, obviously, but Castro has definitely been better against lefties than any of the young lefties.

 

[GusGus11]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

On the pinch hit of Farmer last night. I believe it was a bad move but it isn't out of the ordinary across baseball.

I assume that Rocco was aware of the lefty in the bullpen, I assume that he even knew it was Smith in the bullpen and I assume that he was aware that Wallner is on-deck so I assume that Rocco knew Bochy would bring out the lefty when Julien was announced as a pinch hitter because that would be a little left handed stack.    

So therefore... the only final assumption that I can make is. Rocco would rather Vazquez face Smith than Farmer facing LeClerc.

If that is correct and it might be. My question would be... why didn't he use Gallo instead of Julien for the role of sacrificial lamb? 

The only assumption that I can make on that. Rocco doesn't think Gallo is scary enough to draw out Smith meaning Bochy just stays with LeClerc and Gallo just strikes out because that is what Gallo does. Two outs and a tying run on 2nd. A single is needed and Gallo is just plain low percentage on the hitting a single scale. 

Now if that's the case... and it just might be. Gallo is getting pretty close to useless on this roster.  

Personally... I would have left Farmer to face LeClerc and make Bochy bring the lefties Smith and Chapman face the right handed hitting gauntlet in the 9th. 

So... Yeah... I think it was a questionable move. 

Yeah if he doesnt trust Gallo in the case that Bochy doesnt make the move. I just let Farmer hit. 

Farmer doesnt have vast splits right now anways so let him face the righty who is in trouble AND it keeps our defensive alignment more ideal with Farmer still in the game and Vazquez not at 1B.

It was just odd because the way he played it 100% was going to result statistically our worst hitter batting and having to play D at a spot he doesnt play often(though he doesnt look terrible there not sure what brief metrics say) and it was gonna burn to guys with more potential with the bats for later in the game.

[GusGus11]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I don't disagree that they need to give the kids PAs vs lefties, I'm not sure where you're getting your info on Castro this year. Very different sample size numbers here, obviously, but Castro has definitely been better against lefties than any of the young lefties.

 

 

Willi Castro in 100 ABs as a right hander and consistent starts vs lefties he his slashing .240/.327/.320. Thats brutal. And a lot of those have had him batting 5th. We played Oakland out of the all star break and we started Willi all weekend vs their lefties and he was in a like a 5/40 stretch or something. Its robotic.

Im aware none of the young guys have done anything vs lefties either. But they dont get conssitent reps. Wallner has gotten a few starts. But AK and Julien constantly sit. If they have 5 straight starts against lefties and still slug lower than Castros abysmal .320 maybe I say we try again next year. But right now we are not even giving them reps.

Oakland threw JP Sears vs us., Stats said lefties hit 287 at the time off him and righties .229. We started Castro and our right handed platoons anyways. Our righties were 2/19 against him with Vazquez shockingly having both hits. Our default lefties(again, didnt have enough righties to start) were Kepler and AK. 2/5 with a homer. AK homered.

AK and Julien if you remember then had the 3 run rally and won that game for us, Julien pinch hit when they right hander came in.

Point is so often there are stats that show a struggling lefty vs lefties and we dont give our youth a chance. Similar thing happend vs KC. Yarborough at the time had blah splits vs Lefties. Wallner started and hit a homer.....our righties were shut down. But again, Julien didnt even get a crack.

So basically my argument isnt that any of these kids would forsure be better. Its that after 100 ABs we know Castro is bad. And while Castro is technically their age, hes a role playing platoon guy who barely even made our roster(and his value is base running and late game Defense) we should not be halting growth to give that guy and his .647 OPS vs lefties every start vs them.

Some games? Again, sure. Everyone has to play sometimes. Every time? Nonsense

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Question - if you're on the 40 man roster but not the 26 man MLB roster, can you be put on the playoff roster? I thought that was only doable as an "injury replacement" player with the replaced player going on the 10 day or 15 day IL. I might be remembering older rules.  So, for example, SWR is on the 40 man but hasn't been on the 26 man all year. Can he be arbitrarily dropped into a playoff roster to replace a healthy player or does someone have to go on IL for him to be able to be on the roster? Another example - let's say Varland doesn't come up from AAA the rest of the season. Can he be put on the playoff roster without a pitcher going on IL for 15 days? Just trying to figure out if it matters who's on the 26 man MLB roster at midnight 9/1 or only who's on the 40 man roster. By the way, Martin is not on the 40 man but Gallo and Luplow are. Just sayin....

Between series he could be added to the playoff roster even if he hasn't played at all for the Twins this year. Anyone on the 40-man or 60-day before Sept 1 can be added to the playoff roster between series without needing any injury from another player. Injuries come into play when adding someone in the middle of a series as once you go into a series you can't add anyone to your roster for that set unless someone else is taken off and IL'd. So the very basic thing we're worried about in the next 3 days is getting guys on the 40-man if we want to be able to use them in the postseason.

Yeah, in the Martin thread I said I'd get him on the 40-man before Sept 1 even if he's not on the 26-man cuz I'd want to at least have him as an option. Doubt that happens, though.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

I agree with you completely that platoons have to happen at times. Of course especially this day in age not everyone is going to play 162 games(except the Braves players pretty much). So of course get guys reps. Farmer and Solano originally were brought here to be hitters against lefties.

As you mentioned my issue with it is the extreme usage of it and not developing guys. Basically when we face lefties we start a left hander only as a last resort as in we dont have enough righties to field a lineup. And through the mid summer(before Kepler got red hot) the one lefty that always had priority was Kepler the vet who actually for a decade of proof has been terrible against them. Max is seeing everything well now so no longer a gripe but it was faulty logic in early July.

A few weeks ago when Castro was healthy. We were routinely batting him and Farmer 4th and 5th. Simply cause it was a lefty. Even though Farmer this year hasnt hit lefties at a clean up level(especially at those times) and Castro is virtually unplayable vs them

And to your point on Jeffers, we kept trotting Buxton out there middle of order vs them(even when we moved him down to 6th, he moved back up vs lefties). Byron has been awful vs them.

So yeah, long winded but I agree with you that platoons must be used at points, all teams use them. But as you said you dont try to turn your young players into Joc Pederson. Its the guys who are 30 and proven they are who they are that you always platoon. You have to let 25 year olds try and hit lefties. Thats where I think the negligence comes in.

When we wrap this division up soon. I would love to see us trot out our "righty pitcher" lineup for like 3 games against a lefty and just see what happens. Because what we currently do against lefty pitchers makes our offense way weaker. Would be interesting to see if Julien, AK and Wallner all play vs a lefty if they all get comfortable. Allow us to to have more options come October and not be so predictable.

All of our platooning this year has produced a lineup that struggles against left handed pitchers. If it's working... we should have balanced numbers. 

Why?

Our best hitters have been our young left handed hitters and they are consistently taken out of the game. 

If you really want to blow your mind. Figure out the value based on a per bat basis. 

Vazquez hits .219 vs lefties. Julien hits .205 vs lefties. These numbers have been accumulated over 100 combined AB's so how much of a percentage uptick to you get in one single AB. Yes... you gotta factor in the splits produced by the pitcher but again... what kind of percentage uptick do you get from the pinch hit when it's Vazquez. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Between series he could be added to the playoff roster even if he hasn't played at all for the Twins this year. Anyone on the 40-man or 60-day before Sept 1 can be added to the playoff roster between series without needing any injury from another player. Injuries come into play when adding someone in the middle of a series as once you go into a series you can't add anyone to your roster for that set unless someone else is taken off and IL'd. So the very basic thing we're worried about in the next 3 days is getting guys on the 40-man if we want to be able to use them in the postseason.

Yeah, in the Martin thread I said I'd get him on the 40-man before Sept 1 even if he's not on the 26-man cuz I'd want to at least have him as an option. Doubt that happens, though.

Thanks, Very helpful. 

[GusGus11]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

All of our platooning this year has produced a lineup that struggles against left handed pitchers. If it's working... we should have balanced numbers. 

Why?

Our best hitters have been our young left handed hitters and they are consistently taken out of the game. 

If you really want to blow your mind. Figure out the value based on a per bat basis. 

Vazquez hits .219 vs lefties. Julien hits .205 vs lefties. These numbers have been accumulated over 100 combined AB's so how much of a percentage uptick to you get in one single AB. Yes... you gotta factor in the splits produced by the pitcher but again... what kind of percentage uptick do you get from the pinch hit when it's Vazquez. 

 

Exactly and thats why Id give them opportunity with consistent reps and see what happens.

I know Julien helped win us the Pirates game when Keuchel was nearly perfect. Julien delivered early on vs the lefty

LIke I said in a post above. If we started Julien or AK like 5 straight games vs lefties and it was proof that they were lost, ok then maybe platoon. 

But its not like we have David Freese off the bench as a righty like the Dodgers did in October a few years ago. We are talking Vazquez and Farmer.

So I just want them to 1. get legit reps and 2. Get the occaisional chance to face a lefty 1 time in a game rather than subbed out prematurely.

Heck I said in a different thread its also frustrating because it appears we hold them to a different standard.  Last week we faced Burnes who like JP sears in Oakland has a bit reverse of splits. So we started Luplow vs Burnes. What that doesnt account for tho is that 1. Burnes is still really good and 2. Luplow is so bad against right handers he wouldnt be in the league if thats who he faced.

So julien cant bat against JP Sears left on left but Jordan freaking Luplow can go right on right with Corbin Burnes?!?! Just doesnt add up